One of the best series ever: Celtics win 4-3

[CubbieGager]

Yeah, my bad on the 11-8 record down the stretch. That was San Antonio, not Boston. I guess I had a bit of a brain fart and got my big guys with bad knees teams confused.

 

That being said, I really do feel that Hinrich could play a big part in this series. He's played well in the playoffs before, and will have to be a factor if the Bulls have any hope to make this a competitive series. Obviously I don't think he's gonna be the best player on the floor, but I do think he will be a key player.

[chuckywang]

What was the Celtics record without Garnett?

[Keener98]

What was the Celtics record without Garnett?

 

Like 19-6 or so but 12-2 in their last 14 and they have won 7 of their last 8.

[SpongeWorthy]

If Paul Pierce is an indicator, Kevin Garnett will be ready for tip off of Game 1. Although I don't think KG is the type to fake devastating knee injuries like PP is.

[1908]

From Blogabull

http://www.blogabull.com/2009/4/16/840394/the-effect-of-garnett

 

The Celtics with and without Garnett this season:

 

Record:

Record with: 44 wins, 13 losses (.772 win%)

Record w/o: 18 wins, 7 losses (.720 win%)

 

Point differential:

Points with: 99.9ppg scored, 90.8ppg allowed (+9.1 differential)

Points w/o: 103.2ppg scored, 99.4ppg allowed (+3.8 differential)

 

That +3.8 differential translated to around a .630 win% this NBA season, so Boston's .720 win% without Garnett seems a bit lucky.

 

ORtg/DRtg:

Assuming a consistent (90.4) pace throughout the season regardless if Garnett played or not, and also assuming an even ratio of overtime minutes with and without Garnett (because I'm too lazy to click on every game)...

 

Rtgs with: 109.4 ORtg and 99.4 DRtg (+10.0 differential)

Rtgs w/o: 113.0 ORtg and 108.9 DRtg (+4.1 differential)

 

Some notes:

 

- Several Celtics were banged up in March and April, not just Garnett. So the drastic differentials aren't all on KG. Then again, the increase in ORtg sans-Garnett makes absolutely no sense, so that +4.1 differential could be accurate or even high.

 

- More on that ORtg thing. If anybody has an idea why there was an increase I'd be interested to hear it (their 44.7 3PT% in seven April games didn't hurt). Still, the Celtics should be okay offensively without him considering his decline from last year. Garnett's offensive statistical APM last year was +4.28, but this year it's just +2.29. Leon Powe (+1.01 this year) should be able to fill in fine, assuming he's 100%.

 

- Style-wise, that non-Garnett 113.0 ORtg and 108.9 DRtg most resemble the Portland Trailblazers' 113.9 ORtg and 107.8 DRtg. Net Rtg-wise, the +4.1 differential is closest to the Rockets' +4.4, the Spurs' +4.2, and the Nuggets' +3.6. Considering the Celtics played most of their non-Garnett games against the weaker Eastern Conference, I'd say the Celtics team we're about to play has a talent level similar to the Nuggets.

 

- The Celtics have no defensive replacement for Garnett. His +7.59 defensive APM led the league last year. The defensive APMs of his backups from last season? +0.27 for Powe, -0.87 for Davis, +0.15 for Mikki Moore. Considering the average starting PF had a +1.22 defensive APM last year, all three are below average, and Davis is well-below.

[SouthSideRyan]

Thanks for the link 1908.

 

Looking at it from my perspective, it seems the Bulls are a good matchup for a KG-less Celtics team. They've suffered on the defensive end without him. Who's going to be the Bull that makes the Celtics pay for not having Garnett in the paint? Noah? Gray? Miller? Rose will have a great defender on him in Rose, neutralizing his ability to get to the paint, and Salmons is still hobbled.

[SpongeWorthy]

If Rose has Rose guarding him Rose is going to go off on Rose.

[SouthSideRyan]

Uhh yeah, Rondo.

[Flames24Rulz]

Doesn't Pierce usually guard Gordon? If so, get the ball to Salmons early and often. I just wish Salmons was 100% because I'd certainly feel much more confident in beating a KG-less Celtics team in a seven-game series if that were the case.

 

I think we'll definitely force it to at least 6, perhaps even 7. It's going to take more than a few things for us to actually win the series, but I'm a lot more optimistic than I was 24 hours ago.

[RedFlash]

Doesn't Pierce usually guard Gordon? If so, get the ball to Salmons early and often. I just wish Salmons was 100% because I'd certainly feel much more confident in beating a KG-less Celtics team in a seven-game series if that were the case.

 

I think Boston has to think about do they want: Allen on Salmons (w/ Pierce on Gordon)or Allen on Gordon (w/ Pierce on Salmons). Ether way there's a terrible matchup staring them down. Because Gordon can go toe to toe with Allen offensively, and all Salmons would have to do is hold his own against Pierce. Because without KG, T2/Noah and Miller should pwned Davis/Perkins/Powe, and the PG play should be a wash, but it wouldn't surprise me if Rose doesn't own Rondo during the series. So IMO it comes down to Gordon/Salmons .v. Allen/Pierce. On paper it's a no brainer, but in actuallity the matchup is prolly closer then what people think.

 

Personally, if the Bulls can run and set an up-tempo rhytmn to the game, then the Bulls should run them out of the gym. But we all know the Bulls are a notoriously slow starter and could easier find themselves down early every game.

[SouthSideRyan]

T2/Noah and Miller should pwned Davis/Perkins/Powe

 

Why?

[ChiCubsFan]

Game is at 11:30 central time today.

[Keener98]

Ok, lets steal one in Boston and get Boston to start doubting themselves without KG. 1st quarter of this 1st game is huge, just dont come out and get punched and fall down.

[Keener98]

Nice opening possesion

[Keener98]

Calm the F down Tyrus

[Keener98]

Got to get Rondo in check

[Keener98]

STOP RONDO!!!!!! My God

[Keener98]

Bulls looking to run up and down the court on every missed shot, I like it. Rose to Noah is getting pretty frequent

[SpongeWorthy]

Derrick and Jo look great on offense. Gotta play both ways though.

[Keener98]

Derrick and Jo look great on offense. Gotta play both ways though.

 

 

Yay somebody bsides myself! ha Yea Rondo is working that screen like crazy

[Keener98]

Ill take that 1st quarter. Just need to figure out a way to stop Rondo on that screen, cause Rose is getting beat, and nobody is there to help. That should be TT spot for a block, but he was way outta control when he was in the game.

[killthegoat06]

I'm happy with a tie game after the first.

[SpongeWorthy]

That "Ghosts of Girlfriends Past" movie looks worse than the Holocaust.

[Keener98]

Good old Tim Thomas has never seen a shot he didnt like

[Keener98]

QUIT FIRING UP SHOTS TIM!