Cub prospects in the news

[Wrigley Rat]

With all the positive press regarding many Cubs prospects I don't see how many seem to believe that we're still a bottom 10 system. I'm really excited about the talent in the minors for the first time in forever. Also, when is Wilken going to get a little more credit? Just in the last few years he's brought in guys like Cashner, Vitters, both Jacksons, Flaherty, Lemahieu, Carpenter. Seems like a pretty nice haul for a guy who has taken a lot of criticism.

Please forgive the following somewhat unorganized thoughts:

 

The thing I thought about while reading this is that over the past ten years, the Cubs minor league system has gone from bad to good to bad (and maybe now to good). When we were considered a top ten system, the majority of our top 10-20 prospects had never had any time in AA or higher. By the time those "major prospects" spent time in AA, they were considered busts (or were hurt permanently), causing our system to lose those prospects. Due to the attrition of prospect status from the low minors to the high minors, I would like to see how many top ten organizations have more prospects who have experienced some success at a higher level.

 

I can see the arguments against my thoughts above, but I think that Baseball America (who I respect greatly) would rank an organization with ten 1st round draft picks from 2008 higher than an organization with ten 20th rounders from 2006 who have had various amounts of success at AA and who are age-appropriate. I would personally enjoy rooting for either organization, but I feel that the ten 20th rounders are more likely to help the major league ball club (and sooner) since they are succeeding at a high level already. Don't forget how many 1st rounders are busts!

 

Some of the players in the running for Top 10 in our system:

Josh Vitters

Starlin Castro - 111 AB's at AA

Brett Jackson

Jay Jackson - 82.2 IP at AA

Andrew Cashner - 58.1 IP at AA

Chris Carpenter - 32.0 IP at AA

Kyler Burke

Ryan Flaherty

D.J. LeMahieu

Dae-Eun Rhee

Hak-Ju Lee

Chris Archer

Robert Hernandez

 

It's nice to see a lot of our exciting players with some AA experience. For me, that would nudge them ahead of some higher ceiling prospects who are still at a lower level. So here is how I would rank our top ten:

1 - Josh Vitters (18 HR's in 484 AB's as a 19 year old gives me hope)

2 - Starlin Castro (will be higher when he develops some power)

3 - Andrew Cashner (success at AA and FB speeds in the AFL makes me more confident)

4 - Jay Jackson (success at AA and domination at High-A as a 21 year old is a great sign)

5 - Kyler Burke (.910 OPS and .303 average at age-appropriate level makes 1st rounder valuable)

6 - Brett Jackson (power & speed combo make this CFer someone to watch)

7 - John Gaub (K's/IP is higher than any other lefty/consistently low ERA/potential to help CHC in '10)

8 - Blake Parker (Faded down the stretch, otherwise #'s would be better/great ERA's all 3 years)

9 - Jeff Stevens (WHIP and K's/IP are solid, should help the CHC bullpen in '10)

10 - Chris Archer (young for Low-A but repeating, K's/IP & H/IP is solid for a LHSP, BB's worry me but similar to Big Z)

 

Part of the problem is that a guy like John Gaub who might be starting in the lower minors doesn't get the same appreciation once he's pegged as a reliever. So organizations with more AA and AAA quality players than lower level players have fewer top prospects because relievers and players who can play multiple positions are rarely placed on top 10 lists. To me, if John Gaub pitches with the Cubs next year and posts an ERA around 3.00 with 75 IP, then he was a valuable player on our team (despite just being a reliever). I tend to rank him higher than a lot of people here at NSBB. I haven't seen him on anyone's top 10 list.

 

These guys would be in my 11-30 pile (reasons why in parentheses):

- Hak-Ju Lee (limited data, not out of Short-A ball, some doubts remain about his glove, speed is exciting)

- Ryan Flaherty (not a great defender, projects to play 2B, 22 at Low-A, AVG should be higher for his pedigree, exciting power)

- Chris Carpenter (not convinced yet, old for his levels where he had success, average #'s in AA in '09/Boise in '08)

- Dae-Eun Rhee (let's see how he performs after TJS, slow to recover, limited data (only 10 solid starts in '08))

- Robert Hernandez (steroids worry me, moved backwards to short-A after two years in Low-A, rough '08)

- D.J. LeMahieu (slap hitter without speed who projects as a 2B)

- I like a few of the draft picks from '09 here, but very early to know for sure

- High-A to AAA players who fit here: (Caridad, Berg, Castillo, Colvin, Maestri, Dolis, Guyer, Rosa)

- Choose a few from Peoria (Ridling, Lake, Beliveau, Buchter, Huseby)

 

Sorry for the length - feel free to disagree! :)

[Serge]

Keith Law really really likes Starlin Castro

Serge (El Nido)

 

I saw in your AFL report you had a pretty glowing review of Starlin Castro. Realistically about how good could he be? .300/.360/.440 and plus defense? Less than that? More than that?

Klaw (1:45 PM)

 

I think there's more power potential there. He's just 19 and the ball comes off his bat really well. I hate the Soriano comp, because so much of it is physical and Castro makes more contact, but when you see the ball come off Castro's bat Soriano has to come to mind.

 

The ball comes off his bat like Soriano? Wow.

[Sever82]

Keith Law really really likes Starlin Castro

Serge (El Nido)

 

I saw in your AFL report you had a pretty glowing review of Starlin Castro. Realistically about how good could he be? .300/.360/.440 and plus defense? Less than that? More than that?

Klaw (1:45 PM)

 

I think there's more power potential there. He's just 19 and the ball comes off his bat really well. I hate the Soriano comp, because so much of it is physical and Castro makes more contact, but when you see the ball come off Castro's bat Soriano has to come to mind.

 

The ball comes off his bat like Soriano? Wow.

 

:D) :beg: :beg:

 

If he's as good as they are advertising and if Jaramillo is as good a coach as they say he is, I'm starting to feel the cubs should invite the kid to spring training and actually give him a shot at either Short or 2nd. I know a lot of you see him at 19yrs old and think he should stay in the minors but if he's excelling this well and playing this mature, i think it should be an option. Sorry but Theriot to me has poor range at short and isn't a shortstop but maybe a 2nd baseman.

[Sever82]

BK (Mpls)

 

 

Klaw - love the write-ups from the AFL. What is the eta for Castro to be playing ss with the Cubs?

 

Klaw (1:22 PM)

 

 

2011. He might be able to handle it in the middle of next year, Andrus-style, but I'd like to see where he is after a half-year in AA.

[Guest]

Buster Olney falls in line, dropping Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez comps:

 

Some talent evaluators are raving about Cubs shortstop prospect Starlin Castro, who is just 19 years old. So far, Castro is hitting .522 in the AFL. "He's the most exciting kid here," one evaluator said. "He's got a chance to be a superstar. He's got the bat speed, the strength, and he's somewhere between a Jose Reyes-type of defender and a Hanley Ramirez type of guy. He looks pretty special." Castro figures to arrive in the big leagues full time in 2011, but keep in mind that Lou Piniella has never been afraid of aggressively promoting very young players with superlative talent - such as Alex Rodriguez.

[Rob]

Buster Olney falls in line, dropping Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez comps:

 

Some talent evaluators are raving about Cubs shortstop prospect Starlin Castro, who is just 19 years old. So far, Castro is hitting .522 in the AFL. "He's the most exciting kid here," one evaluator said. "He's got a chance to be a superstar. He's got the bat speed, the strength, and he's somewhere between a Jose Reyes-type of defender and a Hanley Ramirez type of guy. He looks pretty special." Castro figures to arrive in the big leagues full time in 2011, but keep in mind that Lou Piniella has never been afraid of aggressively promoting very young players with superlative talent - such as Alex Rodriguez.

 

Yeah, Lou totally gets the credit for ARod.

 

Lou got very upset with the front office for drafting ARod in the first place. He wanted bullpen help and Darren Dreifort was supposed to be able to slot in at the major league level almost immediately after signing. If memory serves, his quote was something to the effect of "why is this even a discussion?"

[sneakypower]

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/the-mariners-draft-history-and-what-might-have-been/

 

A side note: in 1993, the Mariners were again divided over whether to take a high school hitter from Miami or a college pitcher from Wichita State with the first overall pick. Here’s how Jongewaard remembers it:

 

“I remember Lou Piniella saying, ‘Now let me get this straight. Darren Dreifort is close to pitching in the big leagues right now, and we need bullpen help, right?’ I said, ‘Yeah.’ And Lou said, ‘Then why are we even talking about that guy in Florida?

[ctcf]

So yea that Castro kid is kinda exciting...

[TruffleShuffle]

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/the-mariners-draft-history-and-what-might-have-been/

 

A side note: in 1993, the Mariners were again divided over whether to take a high school hitter from Miami or a college pitcher from Wichita State with the first overall pick. Here’s how Jongewaard remembers it:

 

“I remember Lou Piniella saying, ‘Now let me get this straight. Darren Dreifort is close to pitching in the big leagues right now, and we need bullpen help, right?’ I said, ‘Yeah.’ And Lou said, ‘Then why are we even talking about that guy in Florida?

 

i don't blame lou for this, but that's why managers should have absolutely zero input on the mlb draft.

[Sever82]

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/the-mariners-draft-history-and-what-might-have-been/

 

A side note: in 1993, the Mariners were again divided over whether to take a high school hitter from Miami or a college pitcher from Wichita State with the first overall pick. Here’s how Jongewaard remembers it:

 

“I remember Lou Piniella saying, ‘Now let me get this straight. Darren Dreifort is close to pitching in the big leagues right now, and we need bullpen help, right?’ I said, ‘Yeah.’ And Lou said, ‘Then why are we even talking about that guy in Florida?

 

i don't blame lou for this, but that's why managers should have absolutely zero input on the mlb draft.

 

Just my opinon on Lou but I feel the opposite of what Olney said. I think Lou has no patience with young players and I feel he's a horrible manager when it comes to playing youngsters. I think he relies too much on veterans despite how bad they may be. I wouldn't be surprised if it was his decision to play Miles so much last year. I mean Fontenot was terrible but he wasn't as bad as Miles. If Castro is invited to spring straining and he's tearing it up and outplaying both Theriot and Baker. I can see Hendry going to Lou and pushing for Castro to compete for the spot. Then I could see Lou benching Castro at the first sign of a slump and never putting him back into the lineup. I think any sensible and smart manager would've played Fox and Hoffpauer over Bradley and Fonzy last year when both were struggling. So yeah i highly doubt Castro gets called up this year. I dont know why but i have a gut feeling Larussa and Duncan sit out this year, Lou retires and the cubs sign Larussa and Duncan. Or i can see Larussa sitting it out and Duncan signing with the cubs in anticipation that Larussa will be signed the following year. The way Duncan and Larussa are playing thing in St.Louis, make me feel that they dont want to be there and instead have their sights on a future opening which might be the cubs.

[Outshined_One]

It's not that I think Lou has problems with young players, but I really think guys need to make a good first impression on him. Take Soto as one example. He got the starting nod at catcher in 2008 coming out of spring training and he started out his season on a tear. As a result of that, I think Lou was much more willing to let him play through his struggles as the season wore on. The same holds true for Randy Wells this past season. Compare that to Felix Pie, who had an abysmal start to the season and never really recovered from it.

 

Lou's a show-me kind of manager. If a promising guy produces and get on his good side, he will play that guy through struggles. However, if that same player struggles right out of the gate, I don't think Lou will let him hang around for very long and let him figure everything out. It might work for fielding winning teams, but it is not ideal for player development.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's a huge first impression guy.

[SouthSideRyan]

He's a huge first impression guy.

 

I think all but a select few coaching or managing are.

[jersey cubs fan]

He's a huge first impression guy.

 

I think all but a select few coaching or managing are.

 

but with lou it seems much more exaggerated. Like, your first at bat determines what he thinks of you.

[Outshined_One]

He's a huge first impression guy.

 

I think all but a select few coaching or managing are.

 

but with lou it seems much more exaggerated. Like, your first at bat determines what he thinks of you.

 

It's kind of hard to compare him with other managers and coaches in this regard without following those teams extensively.

[Guest]

I don't like the Castro-soriano comps at all. First soriano was never thiought of as a good fielding ss, even in the minors. Second he played in japan so he wasn't raw when he played in Columbus. Their build is not similar and neither is/was their contact ability.

[CubsWin]

I don't like the Castro-soriano comps at all. First soriano was never thiought of as a good fielding ss, even in the minors. Second he played in japan so he wasn't raw when he played in Columbus. Their build is not similar and neither is/was their contact ability.

Originally, they were only comparing the way the ball jumped off of both their bats. If that comp is accurate, I'll take it...big time. By most accounts, Castro is close to or already a major league ready SS defensively. He's demonstrating an advanced ability to make contact consistently and to hit for average. The one thing that was missing was power. As a 19-year-old, I was willing to wait on that. When I heard that some scouts felt that the ball jumped off his bat the same way it jumped off of Soriano's, that was encouraging to say the least.

 

If anyone else has extrapolated that comment into making other comparisons to Soriano, then I agree with you. I don't see much similar between them.

[CubsWin]

He's a huge first impression guy.

 

I think all but a select few coaching or managing are.

 

but with lou it seems much more exaggerated. Like, your first at bat determines what he thinks of you.

You're exaggerating intentionally, right?

[Serge]

Jack (Toronto)

Is Starlin Castro an elite prospect? Top 25? 50?

 

Jim Callis (2:04 PM)

He's one of the best shortstop prospects in the minors. Not sure I'd put him in the Top 25 overall yet, but I could see him in the 26-50 range.

 

I know this is about what we expected but still thought it was worth posting.

[Guest]

BP's Monday Ten-Pack:

 

Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Cubs (MEX: Mexicali)

It's almost remarkable that the Cubs still think Samardzija can be an effective starter in the big leagues. He's made no secret that he wants to return to the rotation, but two late-season starts in the majors were disasters, and now he's merely holding his own in Mexico, allowing 10 runs and 28 baserunners in 18 innings for the Aguilas. Turning 25 in January, with each passing year, it seems that Samardzija will never graduate from thrower to pitcher, and for most, his ceiling ends at middle reliever.

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9697

[Keener98]

BP's Monday Ten-Pack:

 

Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Cubs (MEX: Mexicali)

It's almost remarkable that the Cubs still think Samardzija can be an effective starter in the big leagues. He's made no secret that he wants to return to the rotation, but two late-season starts in the majors were disasters, and now he's merely holding his own in Mexico, allowing 10 runs and 28 baserunners in 18 innings for the Aguilas. Turning 25 in January, with each passing year, it seems that Samardzija will never graduate from thrower to pitcher, and for most, his ceiling ends at middle reliever.

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9697

 

Heh, seems as if somebody else agrees with my opinion on Shark, besides Jersey.

[Little Slide Rooter]

BP's Monday Ten-Pack:

 

Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Cubs (MEX: Mexicali)

It's almost remarkable that the Cubs still think Samardzija can be an effective starter in the big leagues. He's made no secret that he wants to return to the rotation, but two late-season starts in the majors were disasters, and now he's merely holding his own in Mexico, allowing 10 runs and 28 baserunners in 18 innings for the Aguilas. Turning 25 in January, with each passing year, it seems that Samardzija will never graduate from thrower to pitcher, and for most, his ceiling ends at middle reliever.

 

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9697

 

Heh, seems as if somebody else agrees with my opinion on Shark, besides Jersey.

 

If by that you mean that Shark has no business in a major league rotation and it looks more and more like he never will, I doubt you'll have many people dissagreeing.

[Guest]

BA's Cubs top 10 list will be on their website on November 16.

[Sever82]

I've always Felt Shark is more of a bullpen arm and not a starter. Fans were going crazy over him when he first came up but nothing he has screams top prospect. I was hoping at one point that he was traded in that Peavy trade. Not to say they're the same but he reminds me of the situation the yankees have with Chamberlain. Joba is by no means the Ace that ESPN makes him out to be. I would even argue that if Shark was in NY he would've been as overhyped as Joba is. Chamberlains numbers as a starter dont compare to his numbers as a reliever and in my opinion he's the Yankees next closer instead of their next #3 starter. Shark ultimately will end up being a setup or middle reliever for the cubs. I dont think he'll be a closer because he doesn't have a WOW type of pitch.

[jersey cubs fan]

I've always Felt Shark is more of a bullpen arm and not a starter. Fans were going crazy over him when he first came up but nothing he has screams top prospect. I was hoping at one point that he was traded in that Peavy trade. Not to say they're the same but he reminds me of the situation the yankees have with Chamberlain. Joba is by no means the Ace that ESPN makes him out to be. I would even argue that if Shark was in NY he would've been as overhyped as Joba is. Chamberlains numbers as a starter dont compare to his numbers as a reliever and in my opinion he's the Yankees next closer instead of their next #3 starter. Shark ultimately will end up being a setup or middle reliever for the cubs. I dont think he'll be a closer because he doesn't have a WOW type of pitch.

 

Not sure how you can compare Shark to Joba. Joba was a stud who dominated in his brief minor league career and was very good in his first major league season. Shark would have been dismissed as a fraud already in Yankeeland. Hell, they've practically disowned Phil Hughes who blows Samardzija away.