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Posted
Those are probably the first two Neyer articles I've read in at least a few years. I'm just going to pretend that it's a different author than the one I so fondly remember from back in the day.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
Neyer has taken enough criticism for his original piece that he wrote a follow-up. Oh vey.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/yes-the-cubs-might-trade-anthony-rizzo-060215

 

Major League Baseball is an incredibly dynamic enterprise. Did you imagine, two years ago, that Josh Hamilton would today be the TEXAS RANGERS' every-day left fielder? No, you did not. None of us did. And if you couldn't have imagined that, how can you know where Anthony Rizzo will be in three years?

 

Yeah, [expletive], we could all get hit by a [expletive] meteor. That's a possibility too.

Posted
rob neyer is garbage. He wrote a bryce harper hit piece about "why is harper only a one tool player?" right before Harper began donkey punching the league.

 

he finally jumped the shark for me when went full meatball and said ricketts was ruining wrigley earlier this year.

 

yeah, he's been anti-changing anything about wrigley for a while now. i've always hated that.

Posted
Neyer has taken enough criticism for his original piece that he wrote a follow-up. Oh vey.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/just-a-bit-outside/baseball-joe/blog/yes-the-cubs-might-trade-anthony-rizzo-060215

 

Major League Baseball is an incredibly dynamic enterprise. Did you imagine, two years ago, that Josh Hamilton would today be the TEXAS RANGERS' every-day left fielder? No, you did not. None of us did. And if you couldn't have imagined that, how can you know where Anthony Rizzo will be in three years?

 

Yeah, [expletive], we could all get hit by a [expletive] meteor. That's a possibility too.

 

That's all I'm getting out of this article as well. Anything could happen at anytime and therefore I can write about how someone is going to be traded because there's a .00001% possibility that it's true.

Posted
And let's say next winter some team comes to the Cubs and offers them a young, top-notch center fielder for Rizzo (and his wonderfully team-friendly contract). Is it truly unimaginable that the Cubs would say yes?

 

 

Sure I think the Cubs would say Yes to a young, top-notch center fielder... Mike Trout, sure?

Posted
And let's say next winter some team comes to the Cubs and offers them a young, top-notch center fielder for Rizzo (and his wonderfully team-friendly contract). Is it truly unimaginable that the Cubs would say yes?

 

 

Sure I think the Cubs would say Yes to a young, top-notch center fielder... Mike Trout, sure?

 

You know, the funny thing is that Anthony is on pace for 7.6fWAR this year and signed for the next 5 years at an annual average of 7M. That changes to 7 years and 9.14M annually if the Cubs pick up his 2021 and 2022 options. Mike Trout, on the other hand, is on pace for 9.3fWAR, but is signed for 6 years, through 2020, at an average of 23.35M annually. Would I still make the trade? Probably, but It's a hell of a lot closer then I would have imagined a year ago.

Posted
Those are probably the first two Neyer articles I've read in at least a few years. I'm just going to pretend that it's a different author than the one I so fondly remember from back in the day.

 

Same here. A lot of people remember Neyer from when they were introduced to Sabermetrics, but I remember him from when I was learning about baseball altogether. So it's a little extra sad to see him come off like a common message board loser who'd rather grasp at straws trying not to lose an argument than to admit he made a mistake.

Guest
Guests
Posted
I'm sure I remember back in the NSBB olden days when we all loved Neyer. How times change.

 

Back then it was him among a sea of idiots and old timers. Hell, even guys like Gammons and Starks have caught up. There are much better options out there and so much good baseball writing now.

Posted
I'm sure I remember back in the NSBB olden days when we all loved Neyer. How times change.

I remember pre-NSBB finding Neyer one of the few ESPNers that cared at all about sabr related issues. But he was lapped very early on in that department and became just as bad as the rest of them when it comes to talking about the mythology of baseball, rather than reality.

  • 2 weeks later...
Guest
Guests
Posted

Chris Crawford did a post on the Schwarber call-up. I thought the defense bit was a little encouraging, and also matches what we've seen statistically: http://wrigleyville.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2015/06/16/the-call-up-kyle-schwarber/

 

Schwarber’s swing wouldn’t be described as picturesque—there’s some odd hand movement and his balance won’t remind anyone of Carlos Correa—but the bat speed is above average. The plus power potential in his left-handed bat not only comes from his impressive lower-half strength, but from a combination of allowing the ball to travel deep and keeps his hands inside. In fact, it could even push it to a plus-plus grade. He’s not just a power hitter though, as Schwarber has elite pitch-recognition skills and hand-eye coordination. His swing path, along with the aforementioned bat speed, makes the hit tool a potential 60 as well. Finally, while he won’t be mistaken for recently elected Hall of Famer Craig Biggio on the base paths, he does have better speed than the average catcher, and he’s not a guy you have to pinch run for late in games like many backstops are today.

 

The question with Schwarber is on defense, and while he’s still very much a work in progress behind the plate, his improvement throughout his short time in pro ball is really impressive. He’s sure-handed and does a solid job of keeping pitches in front of him. His receiving skills—while still very raw—seem to get better each month. There’s still a ways to go with his footwork though, and because his raw arm strength is below average, he will likely be tested early and often. There’s just enough athleticism to suggest he could play left field, or first base at worst, but the Cubs should give him every chance to stay behind the plate. The strides he’s taken in 2015 suggest he can stay there at least in the near term.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

I just can't get comfortable with the catching thing. Doesn't it seem more likely that it will be easier to teach him to play LF than to teach him to catch? Why let what could theoretically be an elite bat deteriorate behind the plate.

 

There's like 2 dudes in MLB who catch fulltime and are good hitters, just go with the scrapheap and left schwarber mash dongs for the next 10 years.

Posted
I just can't get comfortable with the catching thing. Doesn't it seem more likely that it will be easier to teach him to play LF than to teach him to catch? Why let what could theoretically be an elite bat deteriorate behind the plate.

 

There's like 2 dudes in MLB who catch fulltime and are good hitters, just go with the scrapheap and left schwarber mash dongs for the next 10 years.

 

How much more valuable would it be if we had the 3rd?

Posted
I just can't get comfortable with the catching thing. Doesn't it seem more likely that it will be easier to teach him to play LF than to teach him to catch? Why let what could theoretically be an elite bat deteriorate behind the plate.

 

There's like 2 dudes in MLB who catch fulltime and are good hitters, just go with the scrapheap and left schwarber mash dongs for the next 10 years.

 

How much more valuable would it be if we had the 3rd?

Yeah.

 

He is raw, but he has played the position and they aren't just randomly trying to teach an old dog new tricks. He could do this, and if he did, the value proposition is astronomical.

Posted
I just can't get comfortable with the catching thing. Doesn't it seem more likely that it will be easier to teach him to play LF than to teach him to catch? Why let what could theoretically be an elite bat deteriorate behind the plate.

 

There's like 2 dudes in MLB who catch fulltime and are good hitters, just go with the scrapheap and left schwarber mash dongs for the next 10 years.

 

Have you seen him Catch? Could you or anyone here even tell the difference between an average MLB Catcher, and a below average MLB Catcher by watching on TV?

 

Catching is not an easy eye test to scout, so many different factors come into play (pitchers holding runners on, pitchers missing their zones, pitchers crossing up catchers with wrong zones/pitches, catchers framing of pitches, how often a staff throws nasty sliders in the dirt, explosiveness of a catcher on their throws, arm strength, accuracy, blocking, etc).

 

Nobody here knows what is going to happen to Schwarber, and nobody here has any idea what the best route is for him (staying at catcher, mixing catcher in while he gets taste of MLB, playing another position while getting taste of MLB but still working at catcher, or completely forgoing catcher to get his bat in the lineup).

 

But, the Cubs probably have a pretty deep grasp on what should be done, what Schwarber can potentially do. So if they still think he can play catcher longterm I'm far more inclined to believe them than the fans who want to give up on it already without knowing two things about the position.

 

From the scouts there seems to be an immense work ethic in Schwarber and natural athleticism, coupled with significant improvement since joining the Cubs system. He seems to have the ability to be average to below average defensively behind the plate in the future & even at below average to get that kind of bat production at catcher can be immensely valuable.

Posted

Maybe I'm way behind on this, but I was just checking out MLB.com's Top 100, which automatically boots those who are no longer eligible as prospects. So while we've lost Bryant, Russell, and Soler in the top 20, we've gained a few at the tail end:

 

Gleybar Torres (91)

Billy McKinney (98)

Duane Underwood (100)

 

So that's something. I guess.

Guest
Guests
Posted
Futures Game rosters will be released today. Schwarber and...? Torres is probably not advanced enough. McKinney or Underwood are probably the most likely second choices.
Guest
Guests
Posted

BA's hot sheet:

 

1. Billy McKinney, rf, Cubs

 

Team: Double-A Tennessee (Southern)

Age: 20

Why He’s Here: .692/.688/1.077 (9-for-13), 5 R, 2 2B, 1 HR, 6 RBIs, 2 BB, 0 SO

 

The Scoop: As if Addison Russell wasn’t enough return from last summer’s Jeff Samardzija trade with the Athletics, McKinney has torn up the minors in his first full year with the Cubs. As the youngest player in the Southern League, he’s managed to hit .319 with 14 extra-base hits and just 16 strikeouts in 35 games. In 35 games at the level, McKinney has had just three games with more than one punchout.

 

17. Mark Zagunis, rf, Cubs

 

Team: high Class A Myrtle Beach (Carolina)

Age: 22.

Why He’s Here: .429/.500/.587 (6-for-14), 4 R, 2 HR, 3 RBIs, 2 BB, 1 SO, 2-for-2 SB

 

The Scoop: Zagunis’ combination of patience and pop has made him one of the breakout players of the Carolina League this year. He has posted a .431 on-base percentage in his young pro career after topping .400 in each of his three seasons at Virginia Tech. No, he doesn’t catch any more, but if he hits like this he has no problems profiling as an corner outfielder.

Guest
Guests
Posted

Kiley with an interesting tidbit on the defensive hierarchy of the top OFs.

 

Comment From Andrew

Do you think Billy McKinney could hold down the Cubs CF job starting next year until someone like Happ, Almora, or Zagunis emerge?

 

Kiley McDaniel: Happ is corner OF, Zagunis is corner OF and McKinney is fringy in CF while Almora is fantastic defensively in CF. So, maybe, but don’t think that’ll happen for an extended period.

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