Cub prospects in the news

[Hairyducked Idiot]

But when I take where he is and project him out to the majors in two or three years, I come up with something like 235/273/330.

i'd love to hear how you came up with that Nate Silver

 

Through my highly scientific, proprietary projection system called KJRMWAG.

 

It works around the basic assumption that the speed with which the average prospect in his 20s improves per year will lag slightly behind the speed with which the competition improves at a one-promotion-per-year pace.

 

So I take a guy like Vizcaino, and in AA he's basically:

20.5%, 6.5% BB, 15 HR/year, .315 BABIP.,

so in the majors, I expect something like:

22% K, 5% BB, 10 HR/year, .290 BABIP

 

Then I calculate that out per 600 PAs:

132 K

30 BB

10 HR

428 BIP

124 BIPhits

 

Then for non-HR XBH, he's got 28% of his BIPhits as XBHs at roughly 10 2bs for every 3b. So I gave him 28 2bs and 3 3bs for his 124 BIP hits.

 

Then you add all that up into a slash line. It's a WAG, but I find it to be a fun exercise.

[craig]

I think that's pretty reasonable, Kyle. Everything gets tougher. I think it's more likely than not that CV would project to the .603-OPS guy you've got, rather than a .700+ guy.

 

But, not everybody follows normal trajectory. Hopefully he'll be one whose improvement outpaces the levels, and is able to hang in the mid-.700's.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think that's pretty reasonable, Kyle. Everything gets tougher. I think it's more likely than not that CV would project to the .603-OPS guy you've got, rather than a .700+ guy.

 

But, not everybody follows normal trajectory. Hopefully he'll be one whose improvement outpaces the levels, and is able to hang in the mid-.700's.

 

Yeah. That's how it is for most prospects. You have a handful of guys in your organization from whom you expect big things, and then a couple dozen guys who could become something if they buck the aging curve and shoot up another level in ability. Nothing wrong with Villanueva falling into the latter cateogry.

[sneakypower]

at any rate, ZiPS, a more...proven system, projected him 50 OPS pts higher than that before the season and it's reasonable to assume holding firm at a higher level should only serve to improve that projection

[jersey cubs fan]

at any rate, ZiPS, a more...proven system, projected him 50 OPS pts higher than that before the season and it's reasonable to assume holding firm at a higher level should only serve to improve that projection

 

are zips projections particularly useful for minor leaguers who don't even stand a chance to play in the majors that season? Didn't they also have Brett Jackson being pretty damn good this year?

Edited June 5, 2013 by jersey cubs fan

[Hairyducked Idiot]

So instead of just saying "ZIPS is more optimistic than that" right away, we had to go through the faux outrage song-and-dance? Tiresome and pointless.

 

ZIPS and his current season MLE seem to think his power will translate fairly well from AA to the majors.

[Guest]

So instead of just saying "ZIPS is more optimistic than that" right away, we had to go through the faux outrage song-and-dance? Tiresome and pointless.

 

ZIPS and his current season MLE seem to think his power will translate fairly well from AA to the majors.

 

 

I don't think it was faux outrage. He thought you pulled the numbers out of your ass and then you showed that you at least put some actual thought/work into them.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

ZIPS thinks that a 20.6% K-rate in A+ last year would translate into a 21.5% K-rate in the majors this year.

 

Maybe I'm overestimating how much better at K-ing hitters MLB pitchers are.

[sneakypower]

faux outrage song-and-dance

lol wut

[wekim81]

ZIPS thinks that a 20.6% K-rate in A+ last year would translate into a 21.5% K-rate in the majors this year.

 

Maybe I'm overestimating how much better at K-ing hitters MLB pitchers are.

I'm with ya. I'm seeing that # being a lot higher than 21.5.

[Guest]

ZIPS thinks that a 20.6% K-rate in A+ last year would translate into a 21.5% K-rate in the majors this year.

 

Maybe I'm overestimating how much better at K-ing hitters MLB pitchers are.

I'm with ya. I'm seeing that # being a lot higher than 21.5.

The hypothesis assumes stability over time. Some guys improve their approach some guys get worse and some will be fairly consistent. As a general rule the hypothesis may hold true, but that doesn't make it useful for prediction on a particular case.

[Guest]

Arismendy Alcantara? Can he be top 100?

Klaw (2:33 PM)

 

Yes. He was one of my Cubs sleepers this year.

[Guest]

Guess this can officially go here...

 

At 6 feet 5 and 215 pounds, there has been speculation the 20-year-old Bryant eventually would be moved to the outfield because he’s big for a third baseman. McLeod said that’s not in the plans, at least for the immediate future.

 

“Certainly to start his career,’ McLeod said. “He’s a taller player, but he’s very athletic.”

 

Cubs’ minor league infield coordinator Jose Flores has spent some time watching Bryant play and reported he was impressed with his defensive ability.

 

“Of course there are going to be some things he needs to work on,” McLeod said. “We spent a lot of time on that side of the game, his defensive side. We do think in the immediate future he’s going to play third base for quite a while, and if the time comes down the road where if he continues to grow or continues to get a little stronger and we feel a move may be necessary, then we’ll deal with it then.”

 

Bryant said he’s proud of his fielding at third and likes the “challenge” of his position, but added: “I’m open to playing anywhere in the field as long as I’m in the middle of the lineup.”

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-chicago-cubs-bryant-draft-20130606,0,4432290.story

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

@CubsDen 3m

 

Listen in with our friend @JordanBernfield today at noon as he talks draft & prospects with Jason McLeod and @ProfessorParks on @WGNRadio

[Little Slide Rooter]

@CubsDen: Cubs will sit down soon and talk about the possibility of moving Jorge Soler up to AA.

[ctcf]

From BP's Monday Morning Ten Pack on 6/10

 

Albert Almora, CF, Cubs (Low-A Kane County)

 

After starting the year on the shelf with a hamate injury, Almora has since retuned to game action and is putting on a show at the full-season level. At the time of the injury, I was concerned about the severity and possible lingering effects, especially at the plate, where the strength and flexibility can be slow to return. But Almora has done nothing but rake when he’s been on the field, with 29 hits in only 67 at-bats. Out of sight out of mind in this business, which is unfortunate because Almora is not only the top prospect in the Cubs organization but a top 20 talent in the entire minors. This is a baseball player, one who shows five-tool potential to go along with instincts for the game. He’s a rare package, and if he can stay on the field and avoid injury, the 19-year-old is a likely candidate for an aggressive developmental plan. –Jason Parks

 

Some pretty high praise.

[Guest]

From BP's Monday Morning Ten Pack on 6/10

 

Albert Almora, CF, Cubs (Low-A Kane County)

 

After starting the year on the shelf with a hamate injury, Almora has since retuned to game action and is putting on a show at the full-season level. At the time of the injury, I was concerned about the severity and possible lingering effects, especially at the plate, where the strength and flexibility can be slow to return. But Almora has done nothing but rake when he’s been on the field, with 29 hits in only 67 at-bats. Out of sight out of mind in this business, which is unfortunate because Almora is not only the top prospect in the Cubs organization but a top 20 talent in the entire minors. This is a baseball player, one who shows five-tool potential to go along with instincts for the game. He’s a rare package, and if he can stay on the field and avoid injury, the 19-year-old is a likely candidate for an aggressive developmental plan. –Jason Parks

 

Some pretty high praise.

 

Wow... top in this system and top 20 certainly is.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Daaayyyuum.

[Cubswin11]

From BP's Monday Morning Ten Pack on 6/10

 

Albert Almora, CF, Cubs (Low-A Kane County)

 

After starting the year on the shelf with a hamate injury, Almora has since retuned to game action and is putting on a show at the full-season level. At the time of the injury, I was concerned about the severity and possible lingering effects, especially at the plate, where the strength and flexibility can be slow to return. But Almora has done nothing but rake when he’s been on the field, with 29 hits in only 67 at-bats. Out of sight out of mind in this business, which is unfortunate because Almora is not only the top prospect in the Cubs organization but a top 20 talent in the entire minors. This is a baseball player, one who shows five-tool potential to go along with instincts for the game. He’s a rare package, and if he can stay on the field and avoid injury, the 19-year-old is a likely candidate for an aggressive developmental plan. –Jason Parks

 

Some pretty high praise.

WOW, that's some crazy praise. I think the 5-tool compliment is a bit excessive though. He doesn't project to be a guy who's power will be considered a "tool." But exciting news nonetheless.

[Guest]

From BP's Monday Morning Ten Pack on 6/10

 

Albert Almora, CF, Cubs (Low-A Kane County)

 

After starting the year on the shelf with a hamate injury, Almora has since retuned to game action and is putting on a show at the full-season level. At the time of the injury, I was concerned about the severity and possible lingering effects, especially at the plate, where the strength and flexibility can be slow to return. But Almora has done nothing but rake when he’s been on the field, with 29 hits in only 67 at-bats. Out of sight out of mind in this business, which is unfortunate because Almora is not only the top prospect in the Cubs organization but a top 20 talent in the entire minors. This is a baseball player, one who shows five-tool potential to go along with instincts for the game. He’s a rare package, and if he can stay on the field and avoid injury, the 19-year-old is a likely candidate for an aggressive developmental plan. –Jason Parks

 

Some pretty high praise.

WOW, that's some crazy praise. I think the 5-tool compliment is a bit excessive though. He doesn't project to be a guy who's power will be considered a "tool." But exciting news nonetheless.

 

I've seen 15-20+HR power talked about, which would definitely be a tool for a plus defensive CF.

[Cubswin11]

From BP's Monday Morning Ten Pack on 6/10

 

Albert Almora, CF, Cubs (Low-A Kane County)

 

After starting the year on the shelf with a hamate injury, Almora has since retuned to game action and is putting on a show at the full-season level. At the time of the injury, I was concerned about the severity and possible lingering effects, especially at the plate, where the strength and flexibility can be slow to return. But Almora has done nothing but rake when he’s been on the field, with 29 hits in only 67 at-bats. Out of sight out of mind in this business, which is unfortunate because Almora is not only the top prospect in the Cubs organization but a top 20 talent in the entire minors. This is a baseball player, one who shows five-tool potential to go along with instincts for the game. He’s a rare package, and if he can stay on the field and avoid injury, the 19-year-old is a likely candidate for an aggressive developmental plan. –Jason Parks

 

Some pretty high praise.

WOW, that's some crazy praise. I think the 5-tool compliment is a bit excessive though. He doesn't project to be a guy who's power will be considered a "tool." But exciting news nonetheless.

 

I've seen 15-20+HR power talked about, which would definitely be a tool for a plus defensive CF.

When you qualify it like that, which Parks is likely doing, then yes it is. But I consider 5-tool to not be position specific but how your specific tool compares to the best in the league. Trout and Harper are 5-tool players, regardless of position, and more of what I was talking about. Almora obviously isn't in their class.

[jersey cubs fan]

From BP's Monday Morning Ten Pack on 6/10

 

Albert Almora, CF, Cubs (Low-A Kane County)

 

After starting the year on the shelf with a hamate injury, Almora has since retuned to game action and is putting on a show at the full-season level. At the time of the injury, I was concerned about the severity and possible lingering effects, especially at the plate, where the strength and flexibility can be slow to return. But Almora has done nothing but rake when he’s been on the field, with 29 hits in only 67 at-bats. Out of sight out of mind in this business, which is unfortunate because Almora is not only the top prospect in the Cubs organization but a top 20 talent in the entire minors. This is a baseball player, one who shows five-tool potential to go along with instincts for the game. He’s a rare package, and if he can stay on the field and avoid injury, the 19-year-old is a likely candidate for an aggressive developmental plan. –Jason Parks

 

Some pretty high praise.

WOW, that's some crazy praise. I think the 5-tool compliment is a bit excessive though. He doesn't project to be a guy who's power will be considered a "tool." But exciting news nonetheless.

 

I've seen 15-20+HR power talked about, which would definitely be a tool for a plus defensive CF.

When you qualify it like that, which Parks is likely doing, then yes it is. But I consider 5-tool to not be position specific but how your specific tool compares to the best in the league. Trout and Harper are 5-tool players, regardless of position, and more of what I was talking about. Almora obviously isn't in their class.

 

Yeah, it's a nice thing to have in a defensive CF, but it's not 5-tool. Although that distinction itself is kind of stupid.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

MLB average is 16 HRs per 600 PAs. So 15-20 is average and MLB average is enough to check off the "tool" box.

[Guest]

It's semantics at this point, but 5-tool doesn't necessarily mean "elite MLB production from all 5 tools". Harper is 2 for 4 in SB this year and is a tick below average defensively according to UZR.

[jersey cubs fan]

MLB average is 16 HRs per 600 PAs. So 15-20 is average and MLB average is enough to check off the "tool" box.

 

Nobody would call somebody who is average at those 5 tools a 5 tool player.

 

That's just dumb.