Realistic, Bold Predictions for '09

[17 Seconds]

I like the "Hoff has a career .900+ OPS"

 

in 73 abs

 

and only because of 1 game

 

 

I knew it wouldn't be long untill someone played the "small sample size" card. The numbers are still real, and he continues to impress with every opportunity he gets.

 

Just like it was real when Murton put up a .907 OPS in his first 140 ABs. Or when Cedeno hit .300 in his first 80 ABs

 

I probably should have quoted his career .800 + OPS through the minors.

 

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

 

Its time to stop assuming DLee is going to hit like he did in '05.

 

Who is assuming that? Literally nobody. All he he to do is hit like he did in 00, 02, 03, 04, 05, or 07

[FearTheBako]

I like the "Hoff has a career .900+ OPS"

 

in 73 abs

 

and only because of 1 game

 

 

I knew it wouldn't be long untill someone played the "small sample size" card. The numbers are still real, and he continues to impress with every opportunity he gets. I probably should have quoted his career .800 + OPS through the minors. As long as he keeps hitting, how do you keep him out of the lineup? I understand that with more Ab's, his numbers might dwindle, and if so, fine, he is still a great bench bat. Its time to stop assuming DLee is going to hit like he did in '05. Hoff may very well be out best offinsive option at 1B this year. Thats reality.

 

Before ripping sample sizes, do you first understand why people point to sample sizes as arguments? Ryan O'Malley has never given up a major league earned run. Where is that guy anyways, we have a rotation spot waiting for him.

 

I didn't think my statement would be taken as "ripping" but ok. Yes, I do understand sample size and think it should definetly be looked at, but more important that sample size, is watching players in actions and beliving that they are for real. It's kinda ironic that in arguing for sample size, you pointed out the guy who had like 1 start in his career.

[sneakypower]

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

there are two options

 

a) intuitively realize 900 MLE ops the last 2 seasons (as well as 900 in 73 mlb AB or whatever) shows him as a really good bet to be productive with the bat

b) lazily bring up some meaningless dumb-ass career figure that equally incorporates his pitiful 660 OPS seasons from 4+ years ago before he clearly figured things out. hey guys i don't think much of this Geovany Soto, a .784 career OPS in the minors isn't really doing it for me

 

and true to form, which route does dexter go?

[FearTheBako]

I like the "Hoff has a career .900+ OPS"

 

in 73 abs

 

and only because of 1 game

 

 

I knew it wouldn't be long untill someone played the "small sample size" card. The numbers are still real, and he continues to impress with every opportunity he gets.

 

Just like it was real when Murton put up a .907 OPS in his first 140 ABs. Or when Cedeno hit .300 in his first 80 ABs[quote

 

 

 

I probably should have quoted his career .800 + OPS through the minors.

 

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?[quote

 

 

Its time to stop assuming DLee is going to hit like he did in '05.

 

Who is assuming that? Literally nobody. All he he to do is hit like he did in 00, 02, 03, 04, 05, or 07

 

Sorry about the weird format that I'm respoing with. Still getting a hang of this thing.

 

Yes, those were real. The problem is that he couldn't keep up those numbers consistantly. We gave him a shot and he didnt perform. If we give Hoff a shot and he doesn't performe, fine. If we give him a shot and he keeps up huge numbers, we have a great situation.

 

Not overly. More impressive is what he has done over the past 1 1/2 - 2 years. Why does it matter how old he is? Are we not going to play him because he didn't peak at the typical year for a minor league prospect?

 

Nice. Did you look up his stats and just stat typing years without thinking? I agree we just need him to be 00, 02, 03 Dlee, but the fact that he is batting # 3 in our lineup tells me some (coaching) think he can come close to those #'s

Edited March 20, 2009 by FearTheBako

[17 Seconds]

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

there are two options

 

a) intuitively realize 900 MLE ops the last 2 seasons (as well as 900 in 73 mlb AB or whatever) shows him as a really good bet to be productive with the bat

b) lazily bring up some meaningless dumb-ass career figure that equally incorporates his pitiful 660 OPS seasons from 4+ years ago before he clearly figured things out. hey guys i don't think much of this Geovany Soto, a .784 career OPS in the minors isn't really doing it for me

 

and true to form, which route does dexter go?

 

Wait a second. Who was the one who brought up the career .832 OPS? Was it me? Seriously, why don't you go back and check. No, it wasn't.

 

Yes, Hoffpauir has raked at AAA in the last 2 seasons. Did he say that? No. He brought up his career minor league OPS (which isn't good) and that's what I replied to.

 

So if by "true to form" you mean "replying to something that somebody said", then yes.

Edited March 20, 2009 by 17 Seconds

[17 Seconds]

I like the "Hoff has a career .900+ OPS"

 

in 73 abs

 

and only because of 1 game

 

 

I knew it wouldn't be long untill someone played the "small sample size" card. The numbers are still real, and he continues to impress with every opportunity he gets.

 

Just like it was real when Murton put up a .907 OPS in his first 140 ABs. Or when Cedeno hit .300 in his first 80 ABs

 

Yes, those were real. The problem is that he couldn't keep up those numbers consistantly. We gave him a shot and he didnt perform. If we give Hoff a shot and he doesn't performe, fine. If we give him a shot and he keeps up huge numbers, we have a great situation.

 

I probably should have quoted his career .800 + OPS through the minors.

 

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

 

Not overly. More impressive is what he has done over the past 1 1/2 - 2 years. Why does it matter how old he is? Are we not going to play him because he didn't peak at the typical year for a minor league prospect?

 

Its time to stop assuming DLee is going to hit like he did in '05.

 

Who is assuming that? Literally nobody. All he he to do is hit like he did in 00, 02, 03, 04, 05, or 07

 

Nice. Did you look up his stats and just stat typing years without thinking? I agree we just need him to be 00, 02, 03 Dlee, but the fact that he is batting # 3 in our lineup tells me some (coaching) think he can come close to those #'s

 

Huh? I included 05 because that's just one of the multiple seasons he could match from his career and be fine. I never said he had to produce like all of those years. I think it's pretty obvious what I meant.

 

And what's this "00, 02, 03" stuff? What about 2007 when he had the second best season of is career? Really Lee has had ONE down year over the last several years, which was in 2008. You don't give up on a guy immediately because of one bad year.

[FearTheBako]

I like the "Hoff has a career .900+ OPS"

 

in 73 abs

 

and only because of 1 game

 

 

I knew it wouldn't be long untill someone played the "small sample size" card. The numbers are still real, and he continues to impress with every opportunity he gets.

 

Just like it was real when Murton put up a .907 OPS in his first 140 ABs. Or when Cedeno hit .300 in his first 80 ABs

 

Yes, those were real. The problem is that he couldn't keep up those numbers consistantly. We gave him a shot and he didnt perform. If we give Hoff a shot and he doesn't performe, fine. If we give him a shot and he keeps up huge numbers, we have a great situation.

 

I probably should have quoted his career .800 + OPS through the minors.

 

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

 

Not overly. More impressive is what he has done over the past 1 1/2 - 2 years. Why does it matter how old he is? Are we not going to play him because he didn't peak at the typical year for a minor league prospect?

 

Its time to stop assuming DLee is going to hit like he did in '05.

 

Who is assuming that? Literally nobody. All he he to do is hit like he did in 00, 02, 03, 04, 05, or 07

 

Nice. Did you look up his stats and just stat typing years without thinking? I agree we just need him to be 00, 02, 03 Dlee, but the fact that he is batting # 3 in our lineup tells me some (coaching) think he can come close to those #'s

 

Huh? I included 05 because that's just one of the multiple seasons he could match from his career and be fine. I never said he had to produce like all of those years. I think it's pretty obvious what I meant.

 

And what's this "00, 02, 03" stuff? What about 2007 when he had the second best season of is career? Really Lee has had ONE down year over the last several years, which was in 2008. You don't give up on a guy immediately because of one bad year.

 

Never once did I say "give up on him". My point is, If DLee continues to struggle, and Hoff continues to rake, Hoff needs to be in the lineup. Not saying its going to happen, but I believe it can happen.

[17 Seconds]

Benching him is giving up on him. It's possible but I think Lee would have to struggle really really badly for several months before Lou considered that.

[jersey cubs fan]

It's possible but I think Lee would have to struggle really really badly for several months before Lou considered that.

 

May, June, July, August, September 2008. If he stays at that pace in April, May and June 2009, you will really have to consider doing something. He's 33, has had a major wrist injury and is experiencing leg problems right now.

[Anomalied]

Geovany Soto contributes a nearly identical line to his 2008 season and is only outmatched by Brian McCann as the best catcher in baseball.

 

Derrek Lee continues his downward trend, hitting just 15 homers and driving in 75 runs... but still posts a solid OBP and plays outstanding defense while cutting down on hitting into double plays.

 

Mark DeRosa struggles in his return to the American League and Mike Fontenot makes Cubs fans forget all about him, becoming one of the top 5 second basemen in the National League.

 

Alfonso Soriano steals 30 bases and manages to stay healthy the entire year. His plate discipline remains an issue, but Cubs fans finally feel like he fully earns his pay check in 2009.

 

Kosuke Fukudome and Reed Johnson do not output close to the same production as the Edmonds/Johnson platoon in 2008, but still manage to be one of the better tandems in the league. Fukudome improves marginally, especially when inserted in the second spot in the lineup.

 

Milton Bradley thrives with Aramis Ramirez batting behind him and hits close to .350 for the early stretch of the season before succumbing to an injury in May. His brief stint on the 15-day DL is the only time he's hurt for the rest of the year however and he still earns a spot on the National League All-Star team.

 

Carlos Zambrano finally becomes a 20 game winner, dominating the National League in the first half and earning him the honor of starting pitcher for the National League in the All-Star game. He regresses a bit in the second half, but still manages a career year.

 

Rich Harden suffers several minor injuries, but still starts 25 games for the second straight year. He wins 14, striking out over 200 with an ERA around 2.

 

Ryan Dempster doesn't have as magical a season as his '08 campaign, but still remains one of the better 3/4 pitchers in the National League.

 

Ted Lilly has his worst year as a Cub, winning just 12 games. Sorry, Ted... I had to make at least one negative prediction.

 

Carlos Marmol begins the year as the Cubs closer and dominates. However, when the rest of the bullpen struggles, Lou begins using him again as the stopper... a role which he eases into for a third year. Gregg takes over closing duties and does a respectable job for the rest of the season.

 

Sean Marshall begins the year on fire, a la Rich Hill in 2007. However, he begins to tire by midseason and is relegated back to a relief role when...

 

...the Cubs trade for Jake Peavy at the deadline, surrendering a package of prospects. Peavy isn't as excellent as expected and takes a while to adjust to Wrigley Field. However, he wins all of his games in September...

 

...as the Cubs cruise to their third straight National League Central division championship.

 

And now I take off my rose-colored glasses.

[Little Slide Rooter]

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

there are two options

 

a) intuitively realize 900 MLE ops the last 2 seasons (as well as 900 in 73 mlb AB or whatever) shows him as a really good bet to be productive with the bat

b) lazily bring up some meaningless dumb-ass career figure that equally incorporates his pitiful 660 OPS seasons from 4+ years ago before he clearly figured things out. hey guys i don't think much of this Geovany Soto, a .784 career OPS in the minors isn't really doing it for me

 

and true to form, which route does dexter go?

 

Keep in mind Sotos career minor league OPS was in the low-mid .700s before he broke out in '07.

[wvcbxl]

Zambrano will hit for the cycle in a game this year.

 

 

I would love to see this one 8-)

[erik316wttn]

The Cubs get swept in the first round for the third year in a row, looking like absolute crap in the process.

[Roast]

The Cubs get swept in the first round for the third year in a row, looking like absolute crap in the process.

In what realm is that "bold?" :)

[flyseye]

My predictions:

 

Cubs finally win the world series and WVCBXL celebrates by buying us all a case of Westvleteren 12 .

 

Roast takes a job at Wrigley again and gets 2 hot dogs stuffed up his nose while trying to eject a couple of 96 year old female inebriated spectators.

 

Meph gets busted for plagiarism, and has to watch the Cubs world series on a twelve inch tv in a cell with a Cardinal fan named Bubba.

 

Several high post count posters from NSBB mysteriously disappear into cyberspace when they realize that every single other poster has them on ignore.

 

The world becomes a better place.

[Roast]

Roast takes a job at Wrigley again and gets 2 hot dogs stuffed up his nose while trying to eject a couple of 96 year old female inebriated spectators.

:-))

 

:-k

[Post Count Padder]

I stop padding my post count.

[Geech]

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

a) intuitively realize 900 MLE ops the last 2 seasons (as well as 900 in 73 mlb AB or whatever) shows him as a really good bet to be productive with the bat

 

In 2008, Micah's third year at AAA, his batting line translates to a .286 EQA. While that's actually really close to Lee's PECOTA projection for 2009, I don't think Hoffpauir's odds of repeating his big season are very good.

 

Furthermore, while advanced fielding metrics haven't really been very kind to Lee, I would still take his defense over Micah's. Plus/Minus has Lee's 2008 at +4, while Micah is at -2 in admittedly very few innings.

[ELCABALLO45]

This says nothing about Cub Predictions so...

 

Ben Sheets stays healthy for the entire 09' season...

 

wait... :-k

[erik316wttn]

The Cubs get swept in the first round for the third year in a row, looking like absolute crap in the process.

In what realm is that "bold?" :)

 

It's realistic.

[Roast]

The Cubs get swept in the first round for the third year in a row, looking like absolute crap in the process.

In what realm is that "bold?" :)

 

It's realistic.

Indeed.

[NCCubFan]

Realistic but not-so-bold prediction: The Cubs will neither go 162-0 nor 0-162. :D

[mcgoobs]

Carlos Zambrano finishes the season with the worst ERA out of the five pitchers in our starting rotation.

 

Carlos Marmol suffers an injury that keeps him out for over half the season.

 

Sean Marshall hits two home runs.

 

At some point Soriano, Bradley, Aramis, and Lee are injured at the same time. The Cubs are forced to put out a lineup looking something like:

 

RF: Gathright

2B: Fontenot

1B: Hoffpauir

C: Soto

LF: Johnson

3B: Miles

CF: Fukudome

SS: Theriot

P: Harden

 

That day the Cubs score 14 runs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sean Marshall outpitches Jake Peavy through the all star break, finally killing off the trade rumors linking the Cubs to Peavy.

[sneakypower]

An .832 minor career minor league OPS is impressive for a 28 year old 1B?

a) intuitively realize 900 MLE ops the last 2 seasons (as well as 900 in 73 mlb AB or whatever) shows him as a really good bet to be productive with the bat

 

In 2008, Micah's third year at AAA, his batting line translates to a .286 EQA. While that's actually really close to Lee's PECOTA projection for 2009, I don't think Hoffpauir's odds of repeating his big season are very good.

 

Furthermore, while advanced fielding metrics haven't really been very kind to Lee, I would still take his defense over Micah's. Plus/Minus has Lee's 2008 at +4, while Micah is at -2 in admittedly very few innings.

we're talking about different things here. i agree with you that Lee would likely be the more productive player of the two in full time duty, but i think the notion of "only 73 AB he hasn't proven anything" is junk. what he did the last two years at both levels proves he's a safe bet to be good with the bat. which is the most you can say about any player, because even "proven" guys at the mlb level like victor martinez can have unforeseen crappy years.