Lou: Fukudome Penciled in at 2-Spot in Linuep

[SpongeWorthy]

Has there been any indication from the preseason that Kosuke will no longer be dominated by completely drivable fastballs?

[Cubswin11]

Has there been any indication from the preseason that Kosuke will no longer be dominated by completely drivable fastballs?

I don't think there is really anyway to know that, until he shows up in ST and starts playing with the Cubs, seeing as he has been playing and training in Japan/practicing with them for the WBC and nobody in Japan seems to know how to throw a fastball with movement (2-seamer/sinker/splitter/cutter/etc).

[big_shooter17]

Has there been any indication from the preseason that Kosuke will no longer be dominated by completely drivable fastballs?

I don't think there is really anyway to know that, until he shows up in ST and starts playing with the Cubs, seeing as he has been playing and training in Japan/practicing with them for the WBC and nobody in Japan seems to know how to throw a fastball with movement (2-seamer/sinker/splitter/cutter/etc).

They do throw the shuuto, though. It acts similar to a 2 seamer or sinker.

[nilodnayr]

as i thought, those are total numbers. meaning they include situations where he came up with the bases empty. so they're meaningless when talking about his ability to move runners over.

 

I don't want my #2 hitter to move runners over. I want him to get on base and drive runs in. If your offensive philosophy is to waste outs having your #2 guy just get your leadoff man into scoring position, you're doing yourself a disservice. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the odds of scoring a run with a man on 1st and 0 outs is a lot higher than a man on 2nd with 1 out.

well, your odds of scoring runs also greatly increase when you have your highest OBP guy hitting 2nd rather than 8th.

 

all things being equal, yes, sure. But if you can get nearly the same OBP but far better SLG, the decision is a no-brainer.

agreed. but that's far from a lock. hell, fukudome's slg last year was .02 better than theriot's. do i expect that gap to widen this year? of course. but it's far from a lock.

 

theriots iso was .052, fukudomes was .122, they DID NOT hit for equal power

[nilodnayr]

yes, it's very meangingless. what does a player on the washington nationals have to do with anything regarding who should bat 2nd in the cubs lineup?

 

way to completely miss the point

perhaps the point wouldn't have been missed had he used a relevant example.

 

no, you missed it.

 

the point was to compare to players with nearly identical OBP's (but vastly different other stats), not to compare to players who are candidates to bat 2nd on the Cubs.

umm, but the discussion is who should bat 2nd for the cubs.

 

:banghead:

if that's too hard for you to understand, maybe you should just stop trying.

 

So talking about the importance of power has no place? He was using Dunn as an EXAMPLE.

[MasterBlaster]

i would prefer theriot there, but fukudome isn't a bad choice for the number two hitter.

 

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

why?

 

Because hes not that good?

among regulars he led the team in both average and obp last year. if that's "not that good" then what are the rest of the players?

 

better

convincing argument.

 

theriot is good in his own ways, and obviously has deficiencies as well. but to say that the guy who got on base more than every other player on the team last year "isn't that good" is just stupid.

 

Ok, who do you think Theriot is a better hitter than for the 2009 season?

 

Fukudome.

 

The Theriot hate could be the most obnoxious thing on this board.

[17 Seconds]

i would prefer theriot there, but fukudome isn't a bad choice for the number two hitter.

 

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

why?

 

Because hes not that good?

among regulars he led the team in both average and obp last year. if that's "not that good" then what are the rest of the players?

 

better

convincing argument.

 

theriot is good in his own ways, and obviously has deficiencies as well. but to say that the guy who got on base more than every other player on the team last year "isn't that good" is just stupid.

 

Ok, who do you think Theriot is a better hitter than for the 2009 season?

 

Fukudome.

 

Theriot had pretty much the best season you can realistically expect out of him last year, Fukudome sucked, and he still only out OPSd Kosuke by .008

[SweetZombieJesus]

speaking of Theriot what's his OBP once you factor in his terrible terrible baserunning? Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

[TruffleShuffle]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that. yeah he sucked at it last year but i'm not going to knock down his OBP last season because nobody gave him extra credit for his success in stealing bases the previous year.

[17 Seconds]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that. yeah he sucked at it last year but i'm not going to knock down his OBP last season because nobody gave him extra credit for his success in stealing bases the previous year.

 

He wasn't good in the minors either though. 70% for his career. So his good 2007 seems a lot more flukey than his bad 2008.

 

I don't think he'll be as bad at stealing bases as he was last year, but he's probably not going to be good.

[SouthSideRyan]

i would prefer theriot there, but fukudome isn't a bad choice for the number two hitter.

 

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

why?

 

Because hes not that good?

among regulars he led the team in both average and obp last year. if that's "not that good" then what are the rest of the players?

 

better

convincing argument.

 

theriot is good in his own ways, and obviously has deficiencies as well. but to say that the guy who got on base more than every other player on the team last year "isn't that good" is just stupid.

 

Ok, who do you think Theriot is a better hitter than for the 2009 season?

 

Fukudome.

 

The Theriot hate could be the most obnoxious thing on this board.

 

So we should put our 7th best hitter in the 2 spot..

[abuck1220]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that. yeah he sucked at it last year but i'm not going to knock down his OBP last season because nobody gave him extra credit for his success in stealing bases the previous year.

 

yeah, that's not how it works.

 

and i did give him extra credit for it in 2007, so can you knock down his 2008 for me?

[Sammy Sofa]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

There's a lot wrong with that.

[Sammy Sofa]

i would prefer theriot there, but fukudome isn't a bad choice for the number two hitter.

 

Theriot needs to bat 8th.

why?

 

Because hes not that good?

among regulars he led the team in both average and obp last year. if that's "not that good" then what are the rest of the players?

 

better

convincing argument.

 

theriot is good in his own ways, and obviously has deficiencies as well. but to say that the guy who got on base more than every other player on the team last year "isn't that good" is just stupid.

 

Ok, who do you think Theriot is a better hitter than for the 2009 season?

 

Fukudome.

 

The Theriot hate could be the most obnoxious thing on this board.

 

How is it "obnoxious" if it's based on legitimate criticisms like his complete lack of power, his subpar defensive skills and his bad baserunning? These are all things that are extension of his play in the minors, so what are the odds he's suddenly going to shake any one of them from this point on?

 

The guy has his use on the team, but the Cubs have several players who are either obviously or argubaly much more productive in the 1-2 spots than Theriot.

Edited March 12, 2009 by Sammy Sofa

[bukie]

Theriot is not going to give you much more than seeing-eye singles and walks, no matter where he bats. His SB success rate was 63% last year, low enough to the point of being a detriment. He had an extraordinarily high BABIP last year due partly to a decent line drive percentage, but his groundball percentage was the third highest in the league. That groundball percentage also contributed to him grounding into the highest rate of double plays on the team last year, which doesn't make him an ideal choice to bat in front of your most productive hitters.

 

I say this not as a Theriot hater, he can be productive when in the right situation. He was very patient at the plate (if only on the basepaths too!) and was able to hit his fair share of line drives for singles. But you're not going to get much more out of him than singles and patience, and he's a major double play liability. He's certainly an adequate offensive SS on a team that really has a loaded lineup top to bottom, but he's not an ideal top of the order hitter.

[jersey cubs fan]

Theriot is not going to give you much more than seeing-eye singles and walks, no matter where he bats. His SB success rate was 63% last year, low enough to the point of being a detriment. He had an extraordinarily high BABIP last year due partly to a decent line drive percentage, but his groundball percentage was the third highest in the league. That groundball percentage also contributed to him grounding into the highest rate of double plays on the team last year, which doesn't make him an ideal choice to bat in front of your most productive hitters.

 

I say this not as a Theriot hater, he can be productive when in the right situation. He was very patient at the plate (if only on the basepaths too!) and was able to hit his fair share of line drives for singles. But you're not going to get much more out of him than singles and patience, and he's a major double play liability. He's certainly an adequate offensive SS on a team that really has a loaded lineup top to bottom, but he's not an ideal top of the order hitter.

 

His patience is debatable, he saw about as many pitches per PA as Cedeno, and just barely more than Soriano. Part of the problem is his complete lack of power makes pitchers very confident to throw him strikes, but he did draw a fair amount of walks.

[cubbinalltheway]

yeahbut patience isn't just seeing a lot of pitches. patience is waiting for the right pitch.

[abuck1220]

and then dribbling it through the hole between 2b and 1b that has inexplicably been left open by the other team.

[Exile on Waveland]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

There's a lot wrong with that.

 

Isn't 75% the break-even point?

[bukie]

Theriot is not going to give you much more than seeing-eye singles and walks, no matter where he bats. His SB success rate was 63% last year, low enough to the point of being a detriment. He had an extraordinarily high BABIP last year due partly to a decent line drive percentage, but his groundball percentage was the third highest in the league. That groundball percentage also contributed to him grounding into the highest rate of double plays on the team last year, which doesn't make him an ideal choice to bat in front of your most productive hitters.

 

I say this not as a Theriot hater, he can be productive when in the right situation. He was very patient at the plate (if only on the basepaths too!) and was able to hit his fair share of line drives for singles. But you're not going to get much more out of him than singles and patience, and he's a major double play liability. He's certainly an adequate offensive SS on a team that really has a loaded lineup top to bottom, but he's not an ideal top of the order hitter.

 

His patience is debatable, he saw about as many pitches per PA as Cedeno, and just barely more than Soriano. Part of the problem is his complete lack of power makes pitchers very confident to throw him strikes, but he did draw a fair amount of walks.

 

Some interesting statistics on plate discipline:

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Cubs&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=5&season=2008&month=0

 

Theriot was on the extreme end of team statistics for most of those: he swung at the second-fewest pitches out of the zone (Edmonds), he saw the highest percentage of pitches in the strike zone of any non-pitcher other than Cedeno, he swung at the lowest percentage of pitches in the zone (57.9%), and when he did swing at pitches in the zone, he made contact 96.7% of the time (also highest on the team).

 

So, he was pretty good at not swinging at bad pitches, but then again, he was pretty good at not swinging at good pitches either. Whether making contact with almost 97% of the strikes he swung at is a good or bad thing depends on the point of view.

[TruffleShuffle]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

There's a lot wrong with that.

 

Isn't 75% the break-even point?

 

yeah that's why his comment makes no sense.

[Tracer Bullet]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

There's a lot wrong with that.

 

Isn't 75% the break-even point?

 

yeah that's why his comment makes no sense.

 

Assuming 75% is break even, Theriot, overall, is basically not costing the Cubs any runs when he attempts a steal. But he's not gaining anything either. If the best you can hope for is to break even, maybe it's not a risk worth taking.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

There's a lot wrong with that.

 

Isn't 75% the break-even point?

 

yeah that's why his comment makes no sense.

 

Assuming 75% is break even, Theriot, overall, is basically not costing the Cubs any runs when he attempts a steal. But he's not gaining anything either. If the best you can hope for is to break even, maybe it's not a risk worth taking.

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk.

[Tracer Bullet]

Didn't he get caught stealing like 20 times last year?

 

no

 

and his stolen base percentage in the bigs is 76.8%, there's nothing wrong with that.

 

There's a lot wrong with that.

 

Isn't 75% the break-even point?

 

yeah that's why his comment makes no sense.

 

Assuming 75% is break even, Theriot, overall, is basically not costing the Cubs any runs when he attempts a steal. But he's not gaining anything either. If the best you can hope for is to break even, maybe it's not a risk worth taking.

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk.

 

um...really? So the day he steals the base that puts him over the break even point, there's no longer any risk associated with future SB attempts and he should run at every opportunity? Is that really what you're saying or am I misunderstanding?

[Fred Hornkohl]

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk.

 

um...really? So the day he steals the base that puts him over the break even point, there's no longer any risk associated with future SB attempts and he should run at every opportunity? Is that really what you're saying or am I misunderstanding?

 

Um... yes. really. If the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running at every single opportunity, then you continue to run him at every single opportunity. Or, if you prefer real life situations instead of impossible hypotheticals.... then if the runner has amassed a SB% that exceeds the breakeven point by running only in certain situations, then you continue to run him in those same certain situations. This goes to the definition of what a "breakeven point" is. There will be times when the runner is thrown out, and runs are not scored that might have otherwise. They will be outweighed by the times that the runner is successful and runs will be scored that otherwise would not be realized.

 

If the percentage exceeds the breakeven point, then there is no risk. Math isn't that hard. Don't try to make so.