2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[Transmogrified Tiger]

No, the list of 16 is for seeding, the list of 8 is for inclusion.

[bukie]

Here's a good article by Joe Sheehan, outlining the case for just about every bubble team you can think of: http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=582

 

But man, a Big Ten lover he ain't.

[Exile on Waveland]

so we have to create another 16 team list not including the 8 teams that were selected as locks and the teams that won there conference tournaments. Same goes for the bubble teams choose 8 not including the 5 that were chosen.

 

Top 16 from here:

Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier

 

Top 8 from here:

(Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin

 

Top 16 (and as TT said, a lot of these teams are difficult to distinguish after the first few):

 

Wake Forest

Kansas

Missouri

Villanova

Washington

UCLA

Xavier

Clemson

Florida State

Gonzaga

Illinois

Syracuse

Purdue

Arizona State

BYU

 

Next eight:

 

Tennessee

Texas A & M

OKlahoma State

Wisconsin

Boston College

Michigan

Dayton

Minnesota

 

Assuming these teams don't make a miraculous conference tournament run, I would pretty much eliminate: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USC, Utah State, and Washington State. That may be overly harsh for some, but I don't really think so.

 

Again, my list may not be perfect. I'm willing to change with convincing.

[bukie]

Assuming these teams don't make a miraculous conference tournament run, I would pretty much eliminate: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USC, Utah State, and Washington State. That may be overly harsh for some, but I don't really think so.

 

Again, my list may not be perfect. I'm willing to change with convincing.

 

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely.

 

EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's.

[Exile on Waveland]

Assuming these teams don't make a miraculous conference tournament run, I would pretty much eliminate: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USC, Utah State, and Washington State. That may be overly harsh for some, but I don't really think so.

 

Again, my list may not be perfect. I'm willing to change with convincing.

 

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely.

 

EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's.

 

I thought about leaving Utah State off, but their best wins are Utah (nice win) and Nevada. They also have lost three of six and a strength of schedule of 131. That was my reasoning, but, still, I think I may agree with you. They probably don't deserve to get completely eliminated.

 

On Davidson, they were on my original list. They shouldn't make it by the criteria the committee uses. I am just less sure they won't get an added boost because of last year. I don't think they'll make it, but I bet they come closer than their resume suggests. Sorry if that's too cynical.

 

I just don't see Niagara getting in. I also think wins over Providence, San Diego State and Utah State distinguish St. Mary's from the Purple Eagles. Not to mention losses without Mills and Niagara's four losses to sub-150 Pomeroy teams.

[mul21]

List of 16

Wake Forest

Villanova

Kansas

Clemson

Washington

UCLA

Arizona State

LSU

Illinois

Xavier

Missouri

Purdue

Gonzaga

Marquette

Syracuse

Utah

West Virginia

 

 

 

List of 8

Arizona

South Carolina

Wisconsin

Penn State

Tennessee

St. Mary's

Texas A&M

Boston College

 

That's probably a terrible order but they all just blend together after that top 8.

Edited March 10, 2009 by mul21

[bukie]

Please rank the 16 teams in seed order (unless they are and somehow miraculously happened to also be in alphabetical order too).

[SouthSideRyan]

Assuming these teams don't make a miraculous conference tournament run, I would pretty much eliminate: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USC, Utah State, and Washington State. That may be overly harsh for some, but I don't really think so.

 

Again, my list may not be perfect. I'm willing to change with convincing.

 

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely.

 

EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's.

 

I hate Utah State, but I can't write them off. I guess the issue with them, is the only way they're at-large eligible is if they lose to a bad team.

 

On the flipside, I love Niagra, but you have to write them off. And it's bad for St. Mary's. Getting pantsed like that last night killed them.

 

I think any of the BCS schools(excepting WSU and probably UK and Nebraska) would have to be strongly considered with runs to their title game.

[bukie]

Another question: Is Notre Dame ahead of Providence at this point for at-large consideration? Providence played the equivalent of a cakewalk schedule in the Big East (played Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, and WVU once each) and got swept by ND in the process. ND played a hellish schedule and still beat the ever-loving crap out of Louisville. Providence has home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, and nothing else. Edited March 10, 2009 by bukie

[CubInOK]

so we have to create another 16 team list not including the 8 teams that were selected as locks and the teams that won there conference tournaments. Same goes for the bubble teams choose 8 not including the 5 that were chosen.

 

Top 16 from here:

Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier

 

Top 8 from here:

(Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin

1. Kansas

2. Washington

3. Wake Forest

4. Marquette

5. Illinois

6. Missouri

7. Florida State

8. Clemson

9. Butler

10. Purdue

11. Xavier

12. Syracuse

13. Villanova

14. Arizona State

15. Utah (I guess we'll just set aside that non-D1 loss...)

16. California

 

Bubble Teams:

1. Texas A&M

2. Oklahoma State

3. Wisconsin

4. UNLV

5. Ohio State

6. Dayton

7. Michigan

8. Arizona

Edited March 10, 2009 by CubInOK

[mul21]

Please rank the 16 teams in seed order (unless they are and somehow miraculously happened to also be in alphabetical order too).

 

I realized that after I posted it. It's fixed now.

[SouthSideRyan]

Another question: Is Notre Dame ahead of Providence at this point for at-large consideration? Providence played the equivalent of a cakewalk schedule in the Big East (played Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, and WVU once each) and got swept by ND in the process. ND played a hellish schedule and still beat the ever-loving crap out of Louisville. Providence has home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, and nothing else.

 

I'd probably put them ahead based on h2h, but that's not saying much. I don't think much of Providence.(Though I've only got them playing once.)

[bukie]

Another question: Is Notre Dame ahead of Providence at this point for at-large consideration? Providence played the equivalent of a cakewalk schedule in the Big East (played Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, and WVU once each) and got swept by ND in the process. ND played a hellish schedule and still beat the ever-loving crap out of Louisville. Providence has home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, and nothing else.

 

I'd probably put them ahead based on h2h, but that's not saying much. I don't think much of Providence.(Though I've only got them playing once.)

Oh, I'm not saying there's not a freaking ocean between the top 7 and everybody else, I'm just saying that if any 8th team has a shot out of that conference, it's ND. Of course, they'll have to beat Rutgers, WVU, and likely Pitt to get into realistic discussion, and that doesn't even put them in the finals. Providence has a bye and then likely Cincy (or DePaul...) before a matchup with Louisville.

[bukie]

Big East tourney just started. DePaul leads Cincy 7-6 five minutes in, which is only the third BE game all year they've held a lead this late.

[Vanilla Ice]

3 Seeds

Wake Forest

Kansas

Villanova

Gonzaga

 

4 Seeds

Florida State

Washington

Missouri

Xavier

 

5 Seeds

Clemson

UCLA

Syracuse

Illinois

 

6 Seeds

West Virginia

LSU

Marquette

Arizona State

 

Bubble Teams

 

1. Oklahoma State

2. Boston College

3. Tennessee

4. Texas A&M

5. Wisconsin

6. Dayton

7. Miami

8. Arizona

[Prior4CyYoung]

Assuming these teams don't make a miraculous conference tournament run, I would pretty much eliminate: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USC, Utah State, and Washington State. That may be overly harsh for some, but I don't really think so.

 

Again, my list may not be perfect. I'm willing to change with convincing.

 

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely.

 

EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's.

 

I agree with that list with the exception of Utah State, Cinci(assuming they win at least 2 games) Northwestern(see cinci).

[Prior4CyYoung]

so we have to create another 16 team list not including the 8 teams that were selected as locks and the teams that won there conference tournaments. Same goes for the bubble teams choose 8 not including the 5 that were chosen.

 

Top 16 from here:

Other teams in (30): Arizona State, Butler, BYU, California, Chattanooga (SoCon), Clemson, Cornell (Ivy), ETSU (ASun), Florida State, Gonzaga (WCC), Illinois, Kansas, LSU, Marquette, Missouri, Morehead State (OVC), Northern Iowa (MVC), Purdue, Radford (BSouth), Siena (MAAC), Syracuse, Texas, UCLA, Utah, VCU (CAA), Villanova, Wake Forest, Washington, West Virginia, Xavier

 

Top 8 from here:

(Bubble) (32): Arizona, Auburn, Boston College, Cincinnati, Creighton, Davidson, Dayton, Florida, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Providence, Rhode Island, San Diego State, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Temple, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Tulsa, UAB, UNLV, USC, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin

 

 

1. Wake Forest

2. Kansas

3. Villanova

4. Washington

5. Gonzaga

6. Xavier

7. Missouri

8. Marquette

9. Syracuse

10. Illinois

11. Clemson

12. UCLA

13. Florida State

14. Purdue

15. Arizona State

16. Butler

 

8 bubble teams

1. Tennessee

2. Michigan

3. Wisconsin

4. South Carolina

5. Dayton

6. St Marys

7. Rhode Island

8. Utah State.

Edited March 10, 2009 by Prior4CyYoung

[Prior4CyYoung]

Another question: Is Notre Dame ahead of Providence at this point for at-large consideration? Providence played the equivalent of a cakewalk schedule in the Big East (played Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Marquette, Syracuse, and WVU once each) and got swept by ND in the process. ND played a hellish schedule and still beat the ever-loving crap out of Louisville. Providence has home wins over Pitt and Syracuse, and nothing else.

 

I'd probably put them ahead based on h2h, but that's not saying much. I don't think much of Providence.(Though I've only got them playing once.)

 

Providence is a head of ND because they didn't lose 7 in a row and did beat the best team in the country in my opinion.

[Exile on Waveland]

Assuming these teams don't make a miraculous conference tournament run, I would pretty much eliminate: Cincinnati, Georgetown, Green Bay, Houston, Illinois State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Nebraska, Niagara, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Temple, Tulsa, UAB, USC, Utah State, and Washington State. That may be overly harsh for some, but I don't really think so.

 

Again, my list may not be perfect. I'm willing to change with convincing.

 

I'd agree with all those except Utah State. I think they're largely getting a raw deal, and should get credit for winning a top 10 league (about as much credit as LSU should for winning the SEC). Cincinnati maybe has a shot if they reach the BE Finals. Other than that it'd take an auto-bid to get any of those teams in, likely. Which means Green Bay, Illinois State, and Niagara would be out completely.

 

EDIT: I'd also dump Davidson. They have really nothing to stand on other than "look at what we did last year", which isn't a committee criteria. Also, Niagara may be getting a raw deal, as their resume is about as good as St. Mary's. Not sure if that's good for Niagara or bad for St. Mary's.

 

I agree with that list with the exception of Utah State, Cinci(assuming they win at least 2 games) Northwestern(see cinci).

 

If Cincinnati only wins two games in the Big East Tournament they'll have beaten DePaul (terrible) and Providence (bubble) and will stand at 20-14 with one, maybe two, wins against tournament teams. I think they almost certainly have to win three, which would require them to beat DePaul, Providence then Louisville. I'd call that a miraculous run.

 

Northwestern is in better shape, as if they win two games (Minnesota and Michigan State), they are likely back in the discussion. Winning those two may not be miraculous (my standard), but I don't think that will be enough either.

[Prior4CyYoung]

I was just using that standard to make them legitimate bubble teams worthy of discussion. Even with 2 wins cinci would probably have a tough time getting in but should at least be considered. But ya i soppose if Northwestern beats Minnesota and Michigan State they really do deserve to make it in my opinion.

[Exile on Waveland]

I was just using that standard to make them legitimate bubble teams worthy of discussion. Even with 2 wins cinci would probably have a tough time getting in but should at least be considered. But ya i soppose if Northwestern beats Minnesota and Michigan State they really do deserve to make it in my opinion.

 

DePaul -- haha, DePaul -- is about to make Cincinnati irrelevant, it seems.

[Prior4CyYoung]

Ya I am feeling embarrassed even considering them seeing as how Depaul is still winning and its the 2nd half.

[Andy]

Haha, 0-18 DePaul wins a BET game.

[UMFan83]

This is a loss for DePaul, this will give the AD enough leiway to retain Wainwright

[bukie]

DePaul ruins two teams' bubble chances with a single victory. Cincy for beating them and Providence by preventing them from playing a decent team in the BET until a possible Louisville matchup.

 

In other words, I'm prepared to dump Cincy now.