Cubs sign Aaron Miles per Levine

[jersey cubs fan]

If you want to slam the Miles signing, then propose a viable alternative capable of doing the same.

 

By a guy who isn't worth crap backing up anymore than 2 (2B and SS).

[Post Count Padder]

The Cubs just got a whole lot more gritty.

Theriot and Miles up the middle might be the Grittiest middle infield in baseball.

[jersey cubs fan]

The 2009 team will have Harden for an entire season

 

The 40-man roster will have him, but will the 25-man roster really get that many more innings out of him? I'd say we'd almost be lucky just to get the same amount as last year.

[Mephistopheles]

The 2009 team will have Harden for an entire season and - assuming the chips fall as predicted - Peavy as well. They take the place of Marquis and the three or four guys we were using in the 5 spot of the rotation.

 

How can you possibly think that this - coupled with the change at 2B, closer (assuming Marmol closes and Gregg sets-up), and RF - will cause the Cubs to digress by 10-12 wins? Really - please show me your work on this one.

 

 

When did we finalize the trade for Peavy? We did not, have not and probably will not. Sure we'll have Harden for an entire season. How many innings does that mean nowadays anyways? He's pitched over 70 innings three times of his five major league seasons. We got that many out of him last season. If we get more than 115 innings out of him this season I would be ecstatic. When did we finalize the trade for Grady Sizemore? Because that's what we need to do if we're going to replace the production that we got from center last season. I love Milton Bradley, but the guy plays 100 games in the season less often than Rich Harden throws 100 innings in a season. That would be three times this century. If he played 140 games, okay we replace that production, assuming he hits like he normally dos. If he plays 80 games and the rest go to Micah or someone else trashy, then well we've lost a lot of production. How confident are you that Bradley stays healthy? When did we finalize the trade for a second Jake Peavy. Because that's what we're going to need to do in order to replace the production that we got from Ryan Dempster last season. Do you really think Dempster is going to do what he did last season? No one should. When did we complete the trade for Chase Utley? Because that's what we're going to need to do in order to replace the production we got at second last season. Now that DeRo is officially gone, how confident are you in Fontenot hitting .300/.378/.458? That's our production from hitters playing 2B last season. Oh, Kerry Wood is gone too.

[Schwarber Fan]

The 2009 team will have Harden for an entire season and - assuming the chips fall as predicted - Peavy as well. They take the place of Marquis and the three or four guys we were using in the 5 spot of the rotation.

 

How can you possibly think that this - coupled with the change at 2B, closer (assuming Marmol closes and Gregg sets-up), and RF - will cause the Cubs to digress by 10-12 wins? Really - please show me your work on this one.

 

 

When did we finalize the trade for Peavy? We did not, have not and probably will not. Sure we'll have Harden for an entire season. How many innings does that man nowadays anyways? He's pitched over 70 innings three times of his five major league seasons. We got that many out of him last season. If we get more than 115 innings out of him this season I would be ecstatic. When did we finalize the trade for Grady Sizemore? Because that's what we need to do if we're going to replace the production that we got from center last season. I love Milton Bradley, but the guy plays 100 games in the season less often than Rich Harden throws 100 innings in a season. That would be three times this century. If he played 140 games, okay we replace that production, assuming he hits like he normally dos. If he plays 80 games and the rest go to Micah or someone else trashy, then well we've lost a lot of production. How confident are you that Bradley stays healthy? When did we finalize the trade for a second Jake Peavy. Because that's what we're going to need to do in order to replace the production that we got from Ryan Dempster last season. Do you really think Dempster is going to do what he did last season? No one should. When did we complete the trade for Chase Utley? Because that's what we're going to need to do in order to replace the production we got at second last season. Now that DeRo is officially gone, how confident are you in Fontenot hitting .300/.378/.458? That's our production from hitters playing 2B last season. Oh, Kerry Wood is gone too.

 

"Probably will not"

 

There is no explanation for what the Cubs are doing right now if we don't end up with Peavy.

[Mephistopheles]

"Probably will not"

 

There is no explanation for what the Cubs are doing right now if we don't end up with Peavy.

 

Ooooh I know this one! Trimming the payroll.

[jersey cubs fan]

There is no explanation for what the Cubs are doing right now if we don't end up with Peavy.

 

Versatility, younger, and cheaper. There is some explanation. Remember, the owner is bankrupt the market is in the crapper and the people rumored to be buyers of the team are all heavily involved in that market.

 

I'm hoping that's not the case, but until they actually do make improvements, the current Cubs are significantly worse than last year's Cubs.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Yes, Edmonds did have a great year(Grady Sizemore) like, but how can you assume that effort would have been repeated in 2009?

[rawaction]

Yes, Edmonds did have a great year(Grady Sizemore) like, but how can you assume that effort would have been repeated in 2009?

 

It's not an assumption for the future, but a comment on the past. For the Cubs to be as good as they were last year, part of it would include getting similar production out of CF.

[RynoRules]

The 2009 team will have Harden for an entire season and - assuming the chips fall as predicted - Peavy as well. They take the place of Marquis and the three or four guys we were using in the 5 spot of the rotation.

 

How can you possibly think that this - coupled with the change at 2B, closer (assuming Marmol closes and Gregg sets-up), and RF - will cause the Cubs to digress by 10-12 wins? Really - please show me your work on this one.

 

 

When did we finalize the trade for Peavy? We did not, have not and probably will not.

 

If you had read my post you would have seen that I asked you to assume the chips fall as predicted. One already has - DeRosa was traded. So your comment that we "probably will not" is already weakened.

 

In any case, I asked you to show me how the team will digress by 10 or 12 wins assuming that Peavy is in fact acquired, which was part of your orginal hypothesis. So, please add that to your caluclations and show me.

 

 

 

Sure we'll have Harden for an entire season. How many innings does that mean nowadays anyways? He's pitched over 70 innings three times of his five major league seasons. We got that many out of him last season. If we get more than 115 innings out of him this season I would be ecstatic.

 

That might be the only point you have made that has some tread. That said, all teams have injuries. Harden for 115 innings and Marshall for the other 6 or 7 starts is still far better than what we had last year.

 

When did we finalize the trade for Grady Sizemore? Because that's what we need to do if we're going to replace the production that we got from center last season. I love Milton Bradley, but the guy plays 100 games in the season less often than Rich Harden throws 100 innings in a season. That would be three times this century. If he played 140 games, okay we replace that production, assuming he hits like he normally dos. If he plays 80 games and the rest go to Micah or someone else trashy, then well we've lost a lot of production. How confident are you that Bradley stays healthy?

 

Fukudome and Johnson will likely not to equate to what Edmonds/Johnson produced in CF last season. However, Bradley is a big upgrade from Fukudome's production in RF. And I am confident he can play 140 games. He's not the risk Harden is in that regard. Micah is a good backup and I don't have an issue with him in that role.

 

When did we finalize the trade for a second Jake Peavy. Because that's what we're going to need to do in order to replace the production that we got from Ryan Dempster last season. Do you really think Dempster is going to do what he did last season? No one should.

 

While I believe we overpaid for him, there's no reason to believe Dempster won't be very good again this season. Its not unusual for pitchers of his type to get better in their early thirties.

 

 

When did we complete the trade for Chase Utley? Because that's what we're going to need to do in order to replace the production we got at second last season. Now that DeRo is officially gone, how confident are you in Fontenot hitting .300/.378/.458? That's our production from hitters playing 2B last season.

 

Based on Fontenot's and Miles' splits, I think they can give us DeRosa's production at 2B.

 

 

Oh, Kerry Wood is gone too.

 

I don't understand why people think Marmol won't be as productive as Wood was in the closer role. The rest of the pen is a concern, yes, but since the starting rotation will be better, so will the pen.

 

But I digress. I am not the one who asserted that we will be 10-12 wins worse this year. I just want to see the numbers that bear that out.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't understand why people think Marmol won't be as productive as Wood was in the closer role. The rest of the pen is a concern, yes, but since the starting rotation will be better, so will the pen.

 

 

That's the point. It's not about Marmol replacing Wood. Ideally, Marmol doesn't replace Wood, but the pen as a whole is probably going to be worse.

 

Assuming Peavy at this point is a stretch. Assuming improved OF production is a bigger stretch. Confidence in Bradley playing 140 games is very risky. Repeating 2B production is a near impossibility.

 

You've glossed over nearly every concern and are only assuming positive outcomes to as yet undetermined questions. The Cubs had a lot go their way last year. Most teams suffer unexpected setbacks.

[rocket]

If you want to slam the Miles signing, then propose a viable alternative capable of doing the same.

 

 

 

ronnie cedeno can play SS, 2B, and the outfield and suck at hitting for less than 5 million.

[RynoRules]

I don't understand why people think Marmol won't be as productive as Wood was in the closer role. The rest of the pen is a concern, yes, but since the starting rotation will be better, so will the pen.

 

 

That's the point. It's not about Marmol replacing Wood. Ideally, Marmol doesn't replace Wood, but the pen as a whole is probably going to be worse.

 

Assuming Peavy at this point is a stretch. Assuming improved OF production is a bigger stretch. Confidence in Bradley playing 140 games is very risky. Repeating 2B production is a near impossibility.

 

You've glossed over nearly every concern and are only assuming positive outcomes to as yet undetermined questions. The Cubs had a lot go their way last year. Most teams suffer unexpected setbacks.

 

That's the whole point - I am not being realistic. Meph's argument of a 10-12 win digression ignored the assumption that we will acquire Peavy.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

The Cubs just got a whole lot more gritty.

Theriot and Miles up the middle might be the Grittiest middle infield in baseball.

 

 

It'll be interesting to see who shows up to BP earlier. I'm sure it'll become a quite competition.

[nolanwood]

So... we trade Marquis to free up money to sign Aaron Miles who is replacing DeRosa who was traded to free up money for 100 games (at best) of Bradley?

[Mephistopheles]

why should i assume that the chips fall into place when defending my comment when my comments were assuming that chips did not fall into place? I said as of right now..."Probably not" has not weakened because the prospect we got aren't ones that SD would covet. The two are likely unrelated. If anything, it has made the probably not more likely because we can't trade DeRosa for prospects they say they want down the road when a deal is near completion.

 

Sorry 0 for 1.

 

Harden for 115 innings and Marshall for the other starts? Marshall has to take Marquis starts (relatively similar production levels there). The other starts go to guys like Kevin Hart and Jeff Samardzija. Again, my original comment was that thus far that the Cubs are about 10 wins worse than they were last season. Not that the Cubs with Peavy are 10 wins worse. Basically I am saying that 1+1 is 2. You are saying no, 1 + 1 + 2 does not equal 2 because you need to assume that the +2 happened.

 

Sorry 0 for 2.

 

For Dempster, there's being very good, and there's being what Dempster was last season. I'd put Dempster's true level for next season somewhere right around a 4.00 RA. That IS very good. However, that difference from 2009 to last even with assuming him to be a 4.00 RA pitcher is a difference of nearly two wins alone.

 

Sorry 0 for 3.

 

You think Fontenot and Miles can hit .300/.380/.460 combined over 162 games? I just don't know what to say. That is inane. Fontenot could come close if he hits his 90th percentile. That's a 10% chance of happening....not very likely.

 

Sorry 0 for 4.

 

Um okay Marmol replaces Wood fine. Who replaces Marmol? Gregg? C'mon Gregg is trashy. The pen will be better because the rotation is better? That's dumb. The rotation is not better and the pen lost its second best piece. Those comments don't add up.

 

Sorry 0 for 5.

 

Funny, it's a typical Aaron Miles day at the plate for you.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't understand why people think Marmol won't be as productive as Wood was in the closer role. The rest of the pen is a concern, yes, but since the starting rotation will be better, so will the pen.

 

 

That's the point. It's not about Marmol replacing Wood. Ideally, Marmol doesn't replace Wood, but the pen as a whole is probably going to be worse.

 

Assuming Peavy at this point is a stretch. Assuming improved OF production is a bigger stretch. Confidence in Bradley playing 140 games is very risky. Repeating 2B production is a near impossibility.

 

You've glossed over nearly every concern and are only assuming positive outcomes to as yet undetermined questions. The Cubs had a lot go their way last year. Most teams suffer unexpected setbacks.

 

That's the whole point - I am not being realistic. Meph's argument of a 10-12 win digression ignored the assumption that we will acquire Peavy.

 

And what is wrong with ignoring such an assumption? The Cubs are who they are right now. If the story changes, the projections will change, but I don't see the point in assuming Peavy is a Cub.

[The Other 15]

even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

 

I'd be interested in seeing your stats to back up that 10-12 win regression.

 

And it is a little hard to make any such definitive statements until you see the final team they bring to spring training.

 

Considering we were a 90 or so win team that managed to win 97 games last season I don't have to do much. Basically, all I have to say is that Ryan Dempster's ERA needs to go up a run and that Milton Bradley isn't Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore and I've covered my three wins or so. I'd put the Cubs right around 88 true level, right around 90 adjusted for the NLC.

 

Wow, You're so smaaaaart! The way you wax poetic about how a 97 win team can regress to about 90 wins is so interesting. I'm sure you're so smaaaart, you already know that any 97 team can win 7 less games (shockingly, even ones with Sizemore and Beltran).

 

This is why I love reading your posts. You save me so much time. Now I don't have to waste the season watching games. I'll just tune in to see a 90 win Cubs team begin a playoff series in Wrigley taking on the hated Diamondbacks.

[jersey cubs fan]

even if we sign bradley with all of the downgrades we've done this season we're a lot worse than we were last season. A good 10 to 12 wins.

 

 

I'd be interested in seeing your stats to back up that 10-12 win regression.

 

And it is a little hard to make any such definitive statements until you see the final team they bring to spring training.

 

Considering we were a 90 or so win team that managed to win 97 games last season I don't have to do much. Basically, all I have to say is that Ryan Dempster's ERA needs to go up a run and that Milton Bradley isn't Carlos Beltran and Grady Sizemore and I've covered my three wins or so. I'd put the Cubs right around 88 true level, right around 90 adjusted for the NLC.

 

Wow, You're so smaaaaart! The way you wax poetic about how a 97 win team can regress to about 90 wins is so interesting. I'm sure you're so smaaaart, you already know that any 97 team can win 7 less games (shockingly, even ones with Sizemore and Beltran).

 

This is why I love reading your posts. You save me so much time. Now I don't have to waste the season watching games. I'll just tune in to see a 90 win Cubs team begin a playoff series in Wrigley taking on the hated Diamondbacks.

 

well then

[Illini Iceman]

why should i assume that the chips fall into place when defending my comment when my comments were assuming that chips did not fall into place? I said as of right now..."Probably not" has not weakened because the prospect we got aren't ones that SD would covet. The two are likely unrelated. If anything, it has made the probably not more likely because we can't trade DeRosa for prospects they say they want down the road when a deal is near completion.

 

Sorry 0 for 1.

 

Harden for 115 innings and Marshall for the other starts? Marshall has to take Marquis starts (relatively similar production levels there). The other starts go to guys like Kevin Hart and Jeff Samardzija. Again, my original comment was that thus far that the Cubs are about 10 wins worse than they were last season. Not that the Cubs with Peavy are 10 wins worse. Basically I am saying that 1+1 is 2. You are saying no, 1 + 1 + 2 does not equal 2 because you need to assume that the +2 happened.

 

Sorry 0 for 2.

 

For Dempster, there's being very good, and there's being what Dempster was last season. I'd put Dempster's true level for next season somewhere right around a 4.00 RA. That IS very good. However, that difference from 2009 to last even with assuming him to be a 4.00 RA pitcher is a difference of nearly two wins alone.

 

Sorry 0 for 3.

 

You think Fontenot and Miles can hit .300/.380/.460 combined over 162 games? I just don't know what to say. That is inane. Fontenot could come close if he hits his 90th percentile. That's a 10% chance of happening....not very likely.

 

Sorry 0 for 4.

 

Um okay Marmol replaces Wood fine. Who replaces Marmol? Gregg? C'mon Gregg is trashy. The pen will be better because the rotation is better? That's dumb. The rotation is not better and the pen lost its second best piece. Those comments don't add up.

 

Sorry 0 for 5.

 

Funny, it's a typical Aaron Miles day at the plate for you.

 

Since you were wrong on just about everything that you said last offseason would happen in 2008 I have a hard time believing that suddenly you have it all figured out and that your predicted outcomes will now be useful and/or accurate.

[The Other 15]

why should i assume that the chips fall into place when defending my comment when my comments were assuming that chips did not fall into place? I said as of right now..."Probably not" has not weakened because the prospect we got aren't ones that SD would covet. The two are likely unrelated. If anything, it has made the probably not more likely because we can't trade DeRosa for prospects they say they want down the road when a deal is near completion.

 

Sorry 0 for 1.

 

Harden for 115 innings and Marshall for the other starts? Marshall has to take Marquis starts (relatively similar production levels there). The other starts go to guys like Kevin Hart and Jeff Samardzija. Again, my original comment was that thus far that the Cubs are about 10 wins worse than they were last season. Not that the Cubs with Peavy are 10 wins worse. Basically I am saying that 1+1 is 2. You are saying no, 1 + 1 + 2 does not equal 2 because you need to assume that the +2 happened.

 

Sorry 0 for 2.

 

For Dempster, there's being very good, and there's being what Dempster was last season. I'd put Dempster's true level for next season somewhere right around a 4.00 RA. That IS very good. However, that difference from 2009 to last even with assuming him to be a 4.00 RA pitcher is a difference of nearly two wins alone.

 

Sorry 0 for 3.

 

You think Fontenot and Miles can hit .300/.380/.460 combined over 162 games? I just don't know what to say. That is inane. Fontenot could come close if he hits his 90th percentile. That's a 10% chance of happening....not very likely.

 

Sorry 0 for 4.

 

Um okay Marmol replaces Wood fine. Who replaces Marmol? Gregg? C'mon Gregg is trashy. The pen will be better because the rotation is better? That's dumb. The rotation is not better and the pen lost its second best piece. Those comments don't add up.

 

Sorry 0 for 5.

 

Funny, it's a typical Aaron Miles day at the plate for you.

 

"You think Fontenot and Miles can hit .300/.380/.460 combined over 162 games? I just don't know what to say. That is inane. Fontenot could come close if he hits his 90th percentile. That's a 10% chance of happening....not very likely."

 

Then, in another thread:

 

"It makes perfect sense. Hendry's not a dumb guy. He knows that with Fontenot and DeRosa at 2B we have two guys who are essentially the same entity.."

[rawaction]

 

"You think Fontenot and Miles can hit .300/.380/.460 combined over 162 games? I just don't know what to say. That is inane. Fontenot could come close if he hits his 90th percentile. That's a 10% chance of happening....not very likely."

 

Then, in another thread:

 

"It makes perfect sense. Hendry's not a dumb guy. He knows that with Fontenot and DeRosa at 2B we have two guys who are essentially the same entity.."

 

 

With Derosa and Fontenot, you had 2 of those same entities who helped to put up that line. With Derosa gone, you have no 2nd guy to combine for those numbers. So Fontenot replaces Derosa, and Miles replaces Fontenot. Miles is lesser than Fontenot. It's not a contradictory statement.

[Mephistopheles]

"You think Fontenot and Miles can hit .300/.380/.460 combined over 162 games? I just don't know what to say. That is inane. Fontenot could come close if he hits his 90th percentile. That's a 10% chance of happening....not very likely."

 

Then, in another thread:

 

"It makes perfect sense. Hendry's not a dumb guy. He knows that with Fontenot and DeRosa at 2B we have two guys who are essentially the same entity.."

 

It's not contradictory. Do you think that Mark DeRosa himself will hit .300/.380/.460 again? He's 34 and has done that once in his career. I'd bet no on that one.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Wow, some people are embarassing themselves in this thread.

 

Is 2.5 million/year too much for Miles? yes.

 

Is he an above-average baseball player? no.

 

Is he pretty average for a backup middle-infielder? Yes.

 

I don't know what you guys seem to think replacement level is for the middle infield, but it's not Miles' career numbers of .289 .329 .364, let alone what put up last season.

 

He's an upgrade over Ronny Cedeno, who has now put up .252 .289 .350 in just shy of 1,000 major-league at-bats.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

And holy veterans committee, comparing him to Neifi Perez?

 

Do .032 points of OBP mean nothing these days?