Dunn is awesome...No he's not...Yes he is!!!

[The Other 15]

The ONE time he played a full season (or a close facsimile of a full season) in 2004 he put up good numbers and promptly followed it up by playing 75 games the next.

 

42, 77, 98, 101, 142, 75, 96, 61, 126.

 

How can those games played in nine season earn a 3 or 4 year contract? I'm flabbergasted that he's such a popular pick. I don't think anyone can say he's bad, but come on, how can those numbers be ignored. There's a good reason why nobody has snagged him up long term.

[17 Seconds]

The ONE time he played a full season (or a close facsimile of a full season) in 2004 he put up good numbers and promptly followed it up by playing 75 games the next.

 

42, 77, 98, 101, 142, 75, 96, 61, 126.

 

How can those games played in nine season earn a 3 or 4 year contract? I'm flabbergasted that he's such a popular pick. I don't think anyone can say he's bad, but come on, how can those numbers be ignored. There's a good reason why nobody has snagged him up long term.

 

i doubt he gets 3 or 4 guaranteed years

 

i think i can guess what hendry/lou's logic is with wanting bradley. just a couple weeks ago Lou talked about wanting to find a way to get Fontenot more playing time. i think they're okay with bradley missing time because that just means they can give fontenot playing time and move derosa to right. i'm not saying i agree with this, i'm just saying i bet that's what they're thinking

Edited December 15, 2008 by 17 Seconds

[Rob]

Expounding a bit on what I said earlier, I went ahead and adjusted his line to fit more smoothly with "neutral luck"... just knocking his BABIP up or down to whatever it took to achieve LD% + .120. And I did it for the last five years.

 

Raw:

2004 - .267/.362/.424
2005 - .290/.350/.484
2006 - .276/.370/.447
2007 - .306/.402/.545
2008 - .321/.436/.563

Adjusted:

2004 - .261/.357/.417
2005 - .321/.379/.522
2006 - .253/.350/.419
2007 - .291/.389/.528
2008 - .307/.424/.544

 

He's been just a little bit lucky the last two seasons, was somewhat lucky the year before that, was even more unlucky the year before that, and was pretty much spot on the season before. But obviously, luck hasn't played enough of a role to really affect his projections much... we aren't exactly dealing with 2007 BJ Upton here.

 

No, the reason his seasons are sometimes great, and sometimes average is that his LD% fluctuates around much more than your average player. And that isn't terribly hard to explain given Bradley's injury history.

 

If he's healthy, he's going to produce. Questioning his bat is asinine... as is questioning his defense (which is slightly above average).

 

The problem is simply going to be keeping him healthy.

[cubsclapp]

Scarey made some great points, particularly about Dunn's struggles with RISP. If you think this isn't a very, very big deal, I'm just going to assume few of you watched the playoffs the last 2 years where we repeatedly struggled to execute with runners in scoring position. The last thing we need is another all or nothing hitter in October. How well has that worked out for Alf?

I have little doubt this guy would be awful in the playoffs, as good pitchers bearing down in the playoffs will absolutely have their way with him, just like they do with Alf. Oh, and he's the worst defensive outfielder around, period. He makes Rosie O'Donnell look athletic. If you disagree, then you obviously haven't watched him play many games. Having him and Alf in the corners, with an average CF in Fukudome/Reed, would be an absolute disaster. But keep popping the OPS blah blah blah junk. Let's go get a guy that will hit .225 with runners in scoring position, strike out 190 times, can't get to anything in the outfield, and doesn't even enjoy playing baseball. That'll solve our problems. Championship drought over!

[samhainn77]

Scarey made some great points, particularly about Dunn's struggles with RISP. If you think this isn't a very, very big deal, I'm just going to assume few of you watched the playoffs the last 2 years where we repeatedly struggled to execute with runners in scoring position. The last thing we need is another all or nothing hitter in October. How well has that worked out for Alf?

I have little doubt this guy would be awful in the playoffs, as good pitchers bearing down in the playoffs will absolutely have their way with him, just like they do with Alf. Oh, and he's the worst defensive outfielder around, period. He makes Rosie O'Donnell look athletic. If you disagree, then you obviously haven't watched him play many games. Having him and Alf in the corners, with an average CF in Fukudome/Reed, would be an absolute disaster. But keep popping the OPS blah blah blah junk. Let's go get a guy that will hit .225 with runners in scoring position, strike out 190 times, can't get to anything in the outfield, and doesn't even enjoy playing baseball. That'll solve our problems. Championship drought over!

 

Holy hyperbole! I'm not sure how you can compare Soriano and Dunn. You would struggle to find two people with more divergent approaches at the plate. Opinions like yours are the reason I think it is important for us to sign Dunn for multiple years. The over-emphasis on Avg, Ks, and "Clutch" stats by "Baseball People" shrinks his price tag...but in reality (in my opinion) he is an absolute monster at the plate that trades a few hits for walks every year.

[17 Seconds]

Wow. Just, wow.

 

The last thing we need is another all or nothing hitter in October. How well has that worked out for Alf?

I have little doubt this guy would be awful in the playoffs, as good pitchers bearing down in the playoffs will absolutely have their way with him, just like they do with Alf.

 

What the hell is this? So because they both strike out and hit home runs that means they're the same? Give me a break. Soriano swings at everything. Dunn swings at strikes. There is a huge difference. To imply that they are the same player offensively is pretty ignorant. Pitchers would have their way with him? I assume you're saying they would throw him junk and he'd hack at everything and get himself out like Soriano. That is simply not true, seeing as how he is a walk machine. Dunn strikes out because he swings hard, he doesn't strike out because he swings at junk. What a weak comparison.

 

Oh, and he's the worst defensive outfielder around, period.

 

Incorrect, and that's already been proven false.

 

But keep popping the OPS blah blah blah junk.

 

Ha. Yeah, just keep talking about numbers that actually prove that he's a good hitter. "Yeah guy, just keep talking about Pujols' average, his slugging, his ability to put the ball in play, his patience, his ability to cure cancer. Blah blah blah. I know what I see with my eyes, and that guy is a bum"

 

If you disagree, then you obviously haven't watched him play many games.

 

Either that or people here tend to choose the option of proof/logic instead of selective memory.

 

and doesn't even enjoy playing baseball.

 

As if you couldn't make yourself look any worse, you end your post with this Ricciardi gem. Seriously, did you just say that? What evidence do you have, other than what some loud,mputh GM said? By the way, did you know that a few days later Ricciardi admitted that he was just pissed at the callers and that he hadn't really heard anything about Dunn not loving the game? I guess not. So not only are you bringing up an irrelevant point, but it's completely inaccurate as well. Good job.

 

You make a full post full of outdated and inaccurate assumptions and hyperbole, then you go and prove how little you know about a player by saying something like that.

 

The bottom line is that if you don't want a guy because he has a poor average w/RISP, then you need to open your mind a little bit and actually learn about what is valuable.

[samhainn77]

Wow. Just, wow.

 

The last thing we need is another all or nothing hitter in October. How well has that worked out for Alf?

I have little doubt this guy would be awful in the playoffs, as good pitchers bearing down in the playoffs will absolutely have their way with him, just like they do with Alf.

 

What the hell is this? So because they both strike out and hit home runs that means they're the same? Give me a break. Soriano swings at everything. Dunn swings at strikes. There is a huge difference. To imply that they are the same player offensively is pretty ignorant. Pitchers would have their way with him? I assume you're saying they would throw him junk and he'd hack at everything and get himself out like Soriano. That is simply not true, seeing as how he is a walk machine. Dunn strikes out because he swings hard, he doesn't strike out because he swings at junk. What a weak comparison.

 

Oh, and he's the worst defensive outfielder around, period.

 

Incorrect, and that's already been proven false.

 

But keep popping the OPS blah blah blah junk.

 

Ha. Yeah, just keep talking about numbers that actually prove that he's a good hitter. "Yeah guy, just keep talking about Pujols' average, his slugging, his ability to put the ball in play, his patience, his ability to cure cancer. Blah blah blah. I know what I see with my eyes, and that guy is a bum"

 

If you disagree, then you obviously haven't watched him play many games.

 

Either that or people here tend to choose the option of proof/logic instead of selective memory.

 

and doesn't even enjoy playing baseball.

 

As if you couldn't make yourself look any worse, you end your post with this Ricciardi gem. Seriously, did you just say that? What evidence do you have, other than what some loud,mputh GM said? By the way, did you know that a few days later Ricciardi admitted that he was just pissed at the callers and that he hadn't really heard anything about Dunn not loving the game? I guess not. So not only are you bringing up an irrelevant point, but it's completely inaccurate as well. Good job.

 

You make a full post full of outdated and inaccurate assumptions and hyperbole, then you go and prove how little you know about a player by saying something like that.

 

The bottom line is that if you don't want a guy because he has a poor average w/RISP, then you need to open your mind a little bit and actually learn about what is valuable.

 

Nice post, you spent a lot more time crafting a post that will fall on deaf ears than I did.

 

For reference, Cubsclapp, do you know who has a higher Career OPS+ than Sosa, Utley, Henderson, Yaz, Magz, and is tied or within 1 of Carew, Winfield, Clemente, Boggs, and Palmeiro? I'll give you a hint! He is huge, the most underrated player in baseball, and his name is Adam Dunn! I realize you probably think OPS+ is worthless, but this illustrates how much of a bargain Dunn would be for us.

[17 Seconds]

point is moot because he doesn't love the game

[scarey]

I can't tell if you guys just don't realize it or if you purposely go out of your way to twist words to make a person's argument irrelevant.

 

I knew exactly what he meant by the Dunn v. Soriano comparison. He didn't mean they both have a low average and high OBP. He didn't mean they're both selective on pitches. He didn't mean any of that and I'm pretty sure you know it but you're going to make it out like that's what he meant because you want to paint the scene as if he knows nothing.

 

Clapp compared the two in the fact that THEY DON'T GET THE JOB DONE WHEN NEEDED. Soriano has shown us when he's been with the Cubs that he can take advantage of mediocre pitching to drive up his numbers and when he is faced with high caliber talent he creates outs. Now, I can't tell you if it's true or not, but I'm thinking you can't either. Cubsclapp seems to have seen Dunn more than we have and mentioned his stint in the playoffs this year which sounds eerily familiar to what we have seen from Soriano. It sounds to me like he's had the opportunity to make the assessment.

 

You can look at a guy's numbers as much as you want, but you still can't get the full story. We saw it with Soriano for crying out loud. I just want you guys to figure out that it may not be the best idea to blindly defend the guy. I think this quote sums up what I'm seeing here.

 

The over-emphasis on Avg, Ks, and "Clutch" stats by "Baseball People" shrinks his price tag

 

So everyone else in the business of baseball is wrong, but this hodge-podge group of forumites is right? With all due respect, give me a break.

[Jehrico]

I can't tell if you guys just don't realize it or if you purposely go out of your way to twist words to make a person's argument irrelevant.

 

I knew exactly what he meant by the Dunn v. Soriano comparison. He didn't mean they both have a low average and high OBP. He didn't mean they're both selective on pitches. He didn't mean any of that and I'm pretty sure you know it but you're going to make it out like that's what he meant because you want to paint the scene as if he knows nothing.

 

Clapp compared the two in the fact that THEY DON'T GET THE JOB DONE WHEN NEEDED. Soriano has shown us when he's been with the Cubs that he can take advantage of mediocre pitching to drive up his numbers and when he is faced with high caliber talent he creates outs. Now, I can't tell you if it's true or not, but I'm thinking you can't either. Cubsclapp seems to have seen Dunn more than we have and mentioned his stint in the playoffs this year which sounds eerily familiar to what we have seen from Soriano. It sounds to me like he's had the opportunity to make the assessment.

 

You can look at a guy's numbers as much as you want, but you still can't get the full story. We saw it with Soriano for crying out loud. I just want you guys to figure out that it may not be the best idea to blindly defend the guy. I think this quote sums up what I'm seeing here.

 

The over-emphasis on Avg, Ks, and "Clutch" stats by "Baseball People" shrinks his price tag

 

So everyone else in the business of baseball is wrong, but this hodge-podge group of forumites is right? With all due respect, give me a break.

You're really offering up some twisted arguments here. First off, the last comment in your post is pretty unnecessary. If that's the way you feel, then why even bother being here? It's well known that certain categories are valued more than other categories in baseball. You have a handful of GMs making their money by trying to exploit undervalued attributes in order to maximize bang for the buck because they realize there is more than one way to contribute to the game. Hence, Beane's pursuit of OBP during the years preceding the release of his moneyball book.

Second, re: feasting on mediocre pitching and sucking against good pitching...that's why good pitching is good. They can get the good hitters out too. Yes, Dunn and Soriano don't as well against good pitching as they do mediocre pitching. And the sky is blue, and the same can be said about just about every other hitter in the league. It's hard to comment on Dunn's postseason ability as he's never played in the postseason. There's really no legitimate reason to believe he'd perform any better or worse in any given playoff series.

 

One thing that's interesting with Dunn...he hit 40 hrs exactly for the 4th straight year. Has anyone ever hit the same number of homers with a total other than zero four years in a row? Worthless trivia at best, but still interesting...

[Backtobanks]

Wow. Just, wow.

 

The last thing we need is another all or nothing hitter in October. How well has that worked out for Alf?

I have little doubt this guy would be awful in the playoffs, as good pitchers bearing down in the playoffs will absolutely have their way with him, just like they do with Alf.

 

What the hell is this? So because they both strike out and hit home runs that means they're the same? Give me a break. Soriano swings at everything. Dunn swings at strikes. There is a huge difference. To imply that they are the same player offensively is pretty ignorant. Pitchers would have their way with him? I assume you're saying they would throw him junk and he'd hack at everything and get himself out like Soriano. That is simply not true, seeing as how he is a walk machine. Dunn strikes out because he swings hard, he doesn't strike out because he swings at junk. What a weak comparison.

 

Oh, and he's the worst defensive outfielder around, period.

 

Incorrect, and that's already been proven false.

 

But keep popping the OPS blah blah blah junk.

 

Ha. Yeah, just keep talking about numbers that actually prove that he's a good hitter. "Yeah guy, just keep talking about Pujols' average, his slugging, his ability to put the ball in play, his patience, his ability to cure cancer. Blah blah blah. I know what I see with my eyes, and that guy is a bum"

 

If you disagree, then you obviously haven't watched him play many games.

 

Either that or people here tend to choose the option of proof/logic instead of selective memory.

 

and doesn't even enjoy playing baseball.

 

As if you couldn't make yourself look any worse, you end your post with this Ricciardi gem. Seriously, did you just say that? What evidence do you have, other than what some loud,mputh GM said? By the way, did you know that a few days later Ricciardi admitted that he was just pissed at the callers and that he hadn't really heard anything about Dunn not loving the game? I guess not. So not only are you bringing up an irrelevant point, but it's completely inaccurate as well. Good job.

 

You make a full post full of outdated and inaccurate assumptions and hyperbole, then you go and prove how little you know about a player by saying something like that.

 

The bottom line is that if you don't want a guy because he has a poor average w/RISP, then you need to open your mind a little bit and actually learn about what is valuable.

 

Nice post, you spent a lot more time crafting a post that will fall on deaf ears than I did.

 

For reference, Cubsclapp, do you know who has a higher Career OPS+ than Sosa, Utley, Henderson, Yaz, Magz, and is tied or within 1 of Carew, Winfield, Clemente, Boggs, and Palmeiro? I'll give you a hint! He is huge, the most underrated player in baseball, and his name is Adam Dunn! I realize you probably think OPS+ is worthless, but this illustrates how much of a bargain Dunn would be for us.

 

First let me say that I'm not a Dunn fan. That being said, some of you act like he's the second coming of Babe Ruth. Contrary to what many posters believe, most GMs aren't idiots, so when there's a lot of reluctance to signing Dunn there must be something to it. There was a thread quite awhile ago that argued whether Dunn was a great hitter. My point is that Dunn can be called a great slugger, but certainly not a great hitter (or player). Putting his name in the same sentence as players like Yaz, Clemente, and Winfield only supports how some statistics will prove anything you want them to prove. The DH was designed specifically for players like Dunn.

[Backtobanks]

Seriously, the question is not weather Bradley would be a safer bet to OPS .850+ over in house guys like Fukudome. The question is do you want another 4 year/$40 mil contract on the books for a guy like Bradley? Sure, I guess you can always find a taker for him but he hasn't exactly brought back riches in trades unless you count Ander Ethier as someone special.

 

 

I don't want him at that price, but 2y at 18m with a vesting option, or 3y at 27m I might consider. I have a feeling Hendry will add incentives based on health or games played in his contract, and get him at 7-9m base salary. I think Bradley will be a high 800 OPS or low 900 OPS guy playing half his games in Wrigley.

 

From MLBTR:

Milton Bradley is weighing his options with the Cubs and Rays. Joe Maddon and the Rays may be a better fit than Lou Piniella and the Cubs. And spending time at DH would allow him to "protect his oft-injured body." But will the Rays meet Bradley's asking price when they can turn to Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Garret Anderson, or Pat Burrell instead? Rosenthal adds that the Reds, Angels, and Nationals are also interested in Bradley.

 

This report sounds like Bradley will be asking for more than Abreu, Giambi, Anderson, and Burrell. I agree with you that Bradley would be a good fit at the right price.

[Guest]

Seriously, the question is not weather Bradley would be a safer bet to OPS .850+ over in house guys like Fukudome. The question is do you want another 4 year/$40 mil contract on the books for a guy like Bradley? Sure, I guess you can always find a taker for him but he hasn't exactly brought back riches in trades unless you count Ander Ethier as someone special.

 

 

I don't want him at that price, but 2y at 18m with a vesting option, or 3y at 27m I might consider. I have a feeling Hendry will add incentives based on health or games played in his contract, and get him at 7-9m base salary. I think Bradley will be a high 800 OPS or low 900 OPS guy playing half his games in Wrigley.

 

From MLBTR:

Milton Bradley is weighing his options with the Cubs and Rays. Joe Maddon and the Rays may be a better fit than Lou Piniella and the Cubs. And spending time at DH would allow him to "protect his oft-injured body." But will the Rays meet Bradley's asking price when they can turn to Bobby Abreu, Jason Giambi, Garret Anderson, or Pat Burrell instead? Rosenthal adds that the Reds, Angels, and Nationals are also interested in Bradley.

 

This report sounds like Bradley will be asking for more than Abreu, Giambi, Anderson, and Burrell. I agree with you that Bradley would be a good fit at the right price.

You're reading too much into that statement.

[scarey]

It's well known that certain categories are valued more than other categories in baseball. You have a handful of GMs making their money by trying to exploit undervalued attributes in order to maximize bang for the buck because they realize there is more than one way to contribute to the game. Hence, Beane's pursuit of OBP during the years preceding the release of his moneyball book.

 

I don't think you can argue that high OBP players don't get paid anymore. Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are. Backtobanks made a great point about how you people seem to think too many GMs in baseball are incapable of running their position... but there's a reason they're there right? And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

 

Second, re: feasting on mediocre pitching and sucking against good pitching...that's why good pitching is good. They can get the good hitters out too. Yes, Dunn and Soriano don't as well against good pitching as they do mediocre pitching. And the sky is blue, and the same can be said about just about every other hitter in the league.

 

Not true. On average a good batter is going to do worse when a good pitcher is throwing the ball, I can't argue that. But Soriano has disappeared during the last two post seasons. Not just bad, but horrid: .343 OPS in 2007 and .142 OPS in 2008. He was absolutely taken advantage of.

 

The Dunn post-season comments on my behalf were a regrettable error. Not thinking, I was making comments on Dunn's post season appearance with the Diamondbacks this year... which obviously didn't happen.

 

 

 

 

 

One last comment. I see a lot of people that make assumptions that because a person doesn't like the way Dunn plays the game, they do not value OBP. It's not all about not liking OBP and really more about making contact on some ABs where he strikes out. Sure, taking the walk is great in virtually every situation, but striking out gives you ZERO chance to keep the inning going. The guy gives himself zero chance way too much when all it would take is cutting his swing down to make contact.

[17 Seconds]

Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are.

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

One last comment. I see a lot of people that make assumptions that because a person doesn't like the way Dunn plays the game, they do not value OBP. It's not all about not liking OBP and really more about making contact on some ABs where he strikes out. Sure, taking the walk is great in virtually every situation, but striking out gives you ZERO chance to keep the inning going. The guy gives himself zero chance way too much when all it would take is cutting his swing down to make contact.

 

 

But a flyout gives you a chance of extending the inning? I don't get that. Are you talking about guys getting bloop hits and finding holes because they make contact? That might be useful in determining how good a player might ened up being, but Dunn has established that he'll put up his numbers despite the strikeouts. If you're talking about the potential for errors by putting the ball in play... the amount of times over a full season that happens is very small and is only a very marginal difference. The truth is that strikeouts aren't nearly as big of a deal as some people make them out to be, as long as you've established that you'll put up numbers in spite of them, which Dunn has proven.

 

I think people too often still associate strikeouts with guys like Soriano who have no discipline and just swing at everything. The truth is that strikeouts occur with most power hitters, and especially with guys that walk a lot. You take more pitches and you're bound to strikeout more. Look at Aramis. He walks skyrocketed this year....and so did his strikeouts. Strikeouts don't mean you're an impatient hitter.

 

One more thing... it sounds like you think people like Dunn for his on base skills alone. It's like you're leaving out the fact that he hits 40 bombs every year in a low amount of at-bats.

 

Really in it's simplest form, hitting is about 2 things. Getting on base (avoiding outs), and when you do get on base... how many bases you get. Dunn is good at both of those.

[samhainn77]

Wow. Just, wow.

 

The last thing we need is another all or nothing hitter in October. How well has that worked out for Alf?

I have little doubt this guy would be awful in the playoffs, as good pitchers bearing down in the playoffs will absolutely have their way with him, just like they do with Alf.

 

What the hell is this? So because they both strike out and hit home runs that means they're the same? Give me a break. Soriano swings at everything. Dunn swings at strikes. There is a huge difference. To imply that they are the same player offensively is pretty ignorant. Pitchers would have their way with him? I assume you're saying they would throw him junk and he'd hack at everything and get himself out like Soriano. That is simply not true, seeing as how he is a walk machine. Dunn strikes out because he swings hard, he doesn't strike out because he swings at junk. What a weak comparison.

 

Oh, and he's the worst defensive outfielder around, period.

 

Incorrect, and that's already been proven false.

 

But keep popping the OPS blah blah blah junk.

 

Ha. Yeah, just keep talking about numbers that actually prove that he's a good hitter. "Yeah guy, just keep talking about Pujols' average, his slugging, his ability to put the ball in play, his patience, his ability to cure cancer. Blah blah blah. I know what I see with my eyes, and that guy is a bum"

 

If you disagree, then you obviously haven't watched him play many games.

 

Either that or people here tend to choose the option of proof/logic instead of selective memory.

 

and doesn't even enjoy playing baseball.

 

As if you couldn't make yourself look any worse, you end your post with this Ricciardi gem. Seriously, did you just say that? What evidence do you have, other than what some loud,mputh GM said? By the way, did you know that a few days later Ricciardi admitted that he was just pissed at the callers and that he hadn't really heard anything about Dunn not loving the game? I guess not. So not only are you bringing up an irrelevant point, but it's completely inaccurate as well. Good job.

 

You make a full post full of outdated and inaccurate assumptions and hyperbole, then you go and prove how little you know about a player by saying something like that.

 

The bottom line is that if you don't want a guy because he has a poor average w/RISP, then you need to open your mind a little bit and actually learn about what is valuable.

 

Nice post, you spent a lot more time crafting a post that will fall on deaf ears than I did.

 

For reference, Cubsclapp, do you know who has a higher Career OPS+ than Sosa, Utley, Henderson, Yaz, Magz, and is tied or within 1 of Carew, Winfield, Clemente, Boggs, and Palmeiro? I'll give you a hint! He is huge, the most underrated player in baseball, and his name is Adam Dunn! I realize you probably think OPS+ is worthless, but this illustrates how much of a bargain Dunn would be for us.

 

First let me say that I'm not a Dunn fan. That being said, some of you act like he's the second coming of Babe Ruth. Contrary to what many posters believe, most GMs aren't idiots, so when there's a lot of reluctance to signing Dunn there must be something to it. There was a thread quite awhile ago that argued whether Dunn was a great hitter. My point is that Dunn can be called a great slugger, but certainly not a great hitter (or player). Putting his name in the same sentence as players like Yaz, Clemente, and Winfield only supports how some statistics will prove anything you want them to prove. The DH was designed specifically for players like Dunn.

 

If I was acting like Dunn is the 2nd coming of Babe Ruth, I would have said something like "Dunn's OPS+ is comparable to that of Babe Ruth AND they are defensive clones!"

 

The statistics are not cherry picked to say anything. They illustrate that conventional statistics are not really a good measure of offensive capability. Not once in my argument did I say Dunn was a better overall player. I essentially said that if you measure Dunn's ability to not make outs in combination with his ability to hit for power, he is comparably offensively to Players X,Y,Z. Just because they are not what you expect to see, does not mean they are wrong or twisted for my argument.

 

I also disagree with the thought that Dunn is just a slugger. His discipline at the plate and understanding of the strikezone are a huge part of his value. If he swung at 12 extra 3-1 or 3-0 pitches off the plate instead of taking the walk and got 10 extra basehits, raising his average significantly but lowering his OBP overall - would he be a better hitter?

[Banedon]

Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are.

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

Just to back this up:

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/12/03/theres-plenty-of-interest-in-adam-dunn/

 

As it stands right now, Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Braves, Mariners, Nationals, and maybe even Yankees are all interested in Dunn while the Dodgers and Angels are keeping him in mind should they fail to sign Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira, respectively. That's plenty of interest and I doubt the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, or Nationals would be all that worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

[JeffH]

Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are.

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

Just to back this up:

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/12/03/theres-plenty-of-interest-in-adam-dunn/

 

As it stands right now, Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Braves, Mariners, Nationals, and maybe even Yankees are all interested in Dunn while the Dodgers and Angels are keeping him in mind should they fail to sign Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira, respectively. That's plenty of interest and I doubt the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, or Nationals would be all that worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

I, too, doubt that any of those clubs are worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

You know, because he wasn't offered arbitration.

[Banedon]

Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are.

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

Just to back this up:

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/12/03/theres-plenty-of-interest-in-adam-dunn/

 

As it stands right now, Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Braves, Mariners, Nationals, and maybe even Yankees are all interested in Dunn while the Dodgers and Angels are keeping him in mind should they fail to sign Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira, respectively. That's plenty of interest and I doubt the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, or Nationals would be all that worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

I, too, doubt that any of those clubs are worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

You know, because he wasn't offered arbitration.

 

Yeah...I posted it to show the level of interest, but he didn't exactly show his breadth of knowledge there, did he?

[samhainn77]

It's well known that certain categories are valued more than other categories in baseball. You have a handful of GMs making their money by trying to exploit undervalued attributes in order to maximize bang for the buck because they realize there is more than one way to contribute to the game. Hence, Beane's pursuit of OBP during the years preceding the release of his moneyball book.

 

I don't think you can argue that high OBP players don't get paid anymore. Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are. Backtobanks made a great point about how you people seem to think too many GMs in baseball are incapable of running their position... but there's a reason they're there right? And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

 

Second, re: feasting on mediocre pitching and sucking against good pitching...that's why good pitching is good. They can get the good hitters out too. Yes, Dunn and Soriano don't as well against good pitching as they do mediocre pitching. And the sky is blue, and the same can be said about just about every other hitter in the league.

 

Not true. On average a good batter is going to do worse when a good pitcher is throwing the ball, I can't argue that. But Soriano has disappeared during the last two post seasons. Not just bad, but horrid: .343 OPS in 2007 and .142 OPS in 2008. He was absolutely taken advantage of.

quote]

 

Ok, you make a great point, Soriano isn't nearly the hitter that Dunn is - I agree with you. Maybe we should look into picking up this Dunn fellow.

 

All kidding a side, we're talking about 6 games. Arod had some terrible stretches, as have many other hitters in and out of the playoffs. It's not a great idea to base your argument on a sample size like this.

[UK1679666180]

Scarey made some great points, particularly about Dunn's struggles with RISP. If you think this isn't a very, very big deal, I'm just going to assume few of you watched the playoffs the last 2 years where we repeatedly struggled to execute with runners in scoring position. The last thing we need is another all or nothing hitter in October. How well has that worked out for Alf?

I have little doubt this guy would be awful in the playoffs, as good pitchers bearing down in the playoffs will absolutely have their way with him, just like they do with Alf. Oh, and he's the worst defensive outfielder around, period. He makes Rosie O'Donnell look athletic. If you disagree, then you obviously haven't watched him play many games. Having him and Alf in the corners, with an average CF in Fukudome/Reed, would be an absolute disaster. But keep popping the OPS blah blah blah junk. Let's go get a guy that will hit .225 with runners in scoring position, strike out 190 times, can't get to anything in the outfield, and doesn't even enjoy playing baseball. That'll solve our problems. Championship drought over!

 

For this to be true, they would've had to been hitting well with no runners on or a runner on 1B.

 

The team had an OPS of .628 vs. LA and .562 vs. AZ.

 

When you have a team that collectively hits like Pie and Macias over a 3 game series like the Cubs have in '07 and '08, there are bigger fish to fry that hitting with RISP since you have to hit or BB to get them there which they didn't do.

 

And unlike Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez, Dunn's weaknesses present a different type of approach and different methods of pitching to retire him something you didn't see with how LA and AZ schooled the Cubs' RH'ed and overaggressive hitters.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I can't tell if you guys just don't realize it or if you purposely go out of your way to twist words to make a person's argument irrelevant.

 

I knew exactly what he meant by the Dunn v. Soriano comparison. He didn't mean they both have a low average and high OBP. He didn't mean they're both selective on pitches. He didn't mean any of that and I'm pretty sure you know it but you're going to make it out like that's what he meant because you want to paint the scene as if he knows nothing.

 

Clapp compared the two in the fact that THEY DON'T GET THE JOB DONE WHEN NEEDED. Soriano has shown us when he's been with the Cubs that he can take advantage of mediocre pitching to drive up his numbers and when he is faced with high caliber talent he creates outs. Now, I can't tell you if it's true or not, but I'm thinking you can't either. Cubsclapp seems to have seen Dunn more than we have and mentioned his stint in the playoffs this year which sounds eerily familiar to what we have seen from Soriano. It sounds to me like he's had the opportunity to make the assessment.

 

You can look at a guy's numbers as much as you want, but you still can't get the full story. We saw it with Soriano for crying out loud. I just want you guys to figure out that it may not be the best idea to blindly defend the guy. I think this quote sums up what I'm seeing here.

 

The over-emphasis on Avg, Ks, and "Clutch" stats by "Baseball People" shrinks his price tag

 

So everyone else in the business of baseball is wrong, but this hodge-podge group of forumites is right? With all due respect, give me a break.

 

Here's the thing. You keep implying that Dunn's "clutch" stats imply he'll be chewed up by good pitchers in the playoffs. So, just to make a point, I took a sampling of Dunn's performance against some "good" pitchers to see if it is true that he just feasts on mediocre pitching. Like I expected, there is some good and some bad.

 

Here's how he's fared in his career vs pitching. (Yes, sample sizes be damned!)

 

Brandon Webb- 240/296/440

Roy Oswalt- 250/377/563

Jake Peavy- 200/344/440

Cole Hamels- 125/222/250

Johan Santana 1000/1000/1000

Matt Cain- 200/333/200

Tim Lincecum- 250/250/250

Chris Carpenter- 167/250/292

Tim Hudson- 333/375/600

 

and versus three of our best

 

Lilly- 222/462/556

Zambrano- 232/389/625

Dempster- 364/667/727

 

So, if Dunn only feasts on mediocre pitching, our rotation is mediocre at best, because Dunn has feasted on the best we have to offer.

[scarey]

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

If your point is that nobody here knows anything for sure, then I guess I'll concede. We'll just see how this thing unravels.

 

One last comment. I see a lot of people that make assumptions that because a person doesn't like the way Dunn plays the game, they do not value OBP. It's not all about not liking OBP and really more about making contact on some ABs where he strikes out. Sure, taking the walk is great in virtually every situation, but striking out gives you ZERO chance to keep the inning going. The guy gives himself zero chance way too much when all it would take is cutting his swing down to make contact.

 

 

But a flyout gives you a chance of extending the inning? I don't get that. Are you talking about guys getting bloop hits and finding holes because they make contact?

 

Yes. This is the basis for virtually every Cub player since Lou has arrived. Make sure to make contact first in a two strike count. It gives them an opportunity for a bloop hit, an erratic ground ball that finds a hole, or every once in a while an infield hit or error. I'm not saying any player should count on getting on base that way, but I know for sure it gives you a tremendously better chance than making an out at the plate and that this approach has a significant effect on a players results.

 

That might be useful in determining how good a player might ened up being, but Dunn has established that he'll put up his numbers despite the strikeouts.

 

I don't understand how putting the ball in play is only helpful in determining how good a player might end up and cannot help a player like Dunn.

 

I think people too often still associate strikeouts with guys like Soriano who have no discipline and just swing at everything.

 

Disagree. In Dunn's case, I can only assume it's a matter of baseball smarts. The guy fails to score runners in scoring position and strikes out in that situation A LOT. If he were to try to make contact first, who knows? Maybe he hits a bloop that scores a guy from second more often. Maybe he gets a sac fly now and then. Maybe he fouls off pitches until he gets a good one to hit. His strikeouts have nothing to do with plate discipline and I know it.

 

One more thing... it sounds like you think people like Dunn for his on base skills alone. It's like you're leaving out the fact that he hits 40 bombs every year in a low amount of at-bats.

 

I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production. 40 HRs is pretty, I can't deny, but look at a guy like Justin Morneau. He only hit 23 HRs. But, he drove in 29 more RBIs then Dunn did. Why? I can't tell you for sure, but I can guess it has at least a little bit to do with the fact that he struck out 80 times less then Dunn did. I'm not saying all of his production is from cutting down his swing, but I think it had a big effect on it.

[CubColtPacer]

Dunn is not getting attention on the market like many older players are.

 

How do you know? Just because you aren't hearng rumors doesn't mean he's not getting a lot of interest.

 

And there has to be a reason Dunn isn't really on the top of anyone's list, right?

 

Again, why are you acting like you know this? You have no idea what is going on.

 

Just to back this up:

 

http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2008/12/03/theres-plenty-of-interest-in-adam-dunn/

 

As it stands right now, Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Braves, Mariners, Nationals, and maybe even Yankees are all interested in Dunn while the Dodgers and Angels are keeping him in mind should they fail to sign Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira, respectively. That's plenty of interest and I doubt the Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, or Nationals would be all that worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

I, too, doubt that any of those clubs are worried about losing a draft pick to sign Dunn.

 

You know, because he wasn't offered arbitration.

 

Yeah...I posted it to show the level of interest, but he didn't exactly show his breadth of knowledge there, did he?

 

Actually, he did. That was his point. From earlier in the article:

 

The D'Backs gave up three players for less than 200 at-bats of Dunn. Why wouldn't they want the two draft picks he'd pull in as a Type A free agent? Surely some team would be willing to give up a pick for a slugger like Dunn.

 

He was showing that there was so much interest in Dunn and especially interest from certain teams that the interest would not just go away if the Diamondbacks had offered him arbitration. Basically, there was no risk of him accepting arbitration, so it was silly for Arizona to not offer it.

[UK1679666180]

I honestly don't care how many home runs the guy hits. I only care about production. 40 HRs is pretty, I can't deny, but look at a guy like Justin Morneau. He only hit 23 HRs. But, he drove in 29 more RBIs then Dunn did. Why? I can't tell you for sure, but I can guess it has at least a little bit to do with the fact that he struck out 80 times less then Dunn did. I'm not saying all of his production is from cutting down his swing, but I think it had a big effect on it.

 

Morneau had 333 ABs with runners on and Dunn only had 217ABs, I think the fact Morneau had 116 more ABs indicates that the guys in front of him did a much better job of getting on base.