Re: College Football - Bowl Discussion

[Mephistopheles]

To be added in tonight

 

 

But, first, now the first-annual Meph rankings. There are four sorts of rankings to put out. The first, of which, are the Conference Ratings, for me. Note: I've been using these all season, just never wanted to post them until now.

 

Note: For everything, 50.0 is average and the metric is measured in points.

 

Conference Ratings:

1. 60.01 Big 12

2. 59.69 Atlantic Coast Conference

3. 56.47 Southerneastern Conference

4. 55.81 Big Ten

5. 53.30 Big East

6. 52.97 Pac 10

7. 51.13 Mountain West Conference

8. 42.56 Western Athletic Conference

9. 41.92 Mid-American Conference

10. 41.60 Independents

11. 40.70 Conference USA

12. 34.13 Sun Belt

 

Thoughts: As easily seen, the Big 12 and ACC were considerably better than the other nine conferences in D1A. The SEC was number two going into the last two weeks, before the ACC pretty much handed their ass to them outside of Florida vs Miami and FSU. Note: The conference ratings themselves aren't a large part of the final rankings. I'm just averaging the teams in the conference to get an average rating for the conference.

 

Now. If I had a vote, for top 25 including everything, not just how good a team is nor how much they accomplished, but a combination of the two, with the current AP ranks in parentheses.

 

1. 83.81 Oklahoma (2)

2. 82.50 Florida (1)

3. 79.58 Texas (3)

4. 77.80 Southern Cal (5)

5. 75.35 Penn State (6)

6. 74.84 Texas Tech (8)

7. 71.49 Utah (7)

8. 69.68 Ohio State (10)

9. 69.51 Alabama (4)

10. 68.77 TCU (11)

11. 68.43 Boise St (9)

12. 67.75 Missouri (25)

13. 67.17 Oklahoma St (13)

14. 66.42 Georgia Tech (14)

15. 65.72 Florida St (28)

16. 65.13 Georgia (16)

17. 64.97 Oregon (15)

18. 64.29 North Carolina (No Votes)

19. 63.44 California (31)

20. 63.08 Oregon St (24)

21. 62.68 Iowa (26)

22. 62.56 Boston College (27)

23. 62.50 Virginia Tech (21)

24. 62.21 Mississippi (20)

25. 62.10 Pittsburgh (18)

 

Notable Absences: #28 BYU (#17), #29 Cincinnati (#12)

 

These particular rankings were derived using only three things: WL record, Point differential, schedule. Nothing else was used. It's akin to the overall rankings that Sagarin posts on his site.

 

Now, if we wanted to rank accomplishments on the field, meaning ignoring point differential and looking just at WL record and schedule. We have the accomplishment, or the best resume, stuff, argument. These rankings, are what, I would have to send to the BCS.

 

1. 80.40 Oklahoma

2. 78.37 Florida

3. 77.14 Texas

4. 76.23 Texas Tech

5. 75.00 Utah

6. 72.24 Southern Cal

7. 71.67 Penn State

8. 70.94 Georgia Tech

9. 70.26 Alabama

10. 69.64 Boise St

11. 69.60 Ohio State

12. 68.92 Florida St

13. 67.96 Georgia

14. 67.70 Cincinnati

15. 67.24 TCU

16. 67.22 Virginia Tech

17. 66.88 Boston College

18. 66.61 North Carolina

19. 66.13 Pittsburgh

20. 66.02 Oklahoma St

21. 64.38 Michigan St

22. 64.30 Missouri

23. 64.08 Brigham Young

24. 62.83 Nebraska

25. 62.50 Oregon

 

Thoughts: Georgia Tech in the top ten? Yeah, that's what I thought. I was surprised to see Oklahoma State so low, myself. Weird.

 

Alright, now for the pure prediction type rankings. These ones were derived only using point differential and schedule, nothing else. These would be akin to the Sagarin predictor.

 

1. 87.22 Oklahoma

2. 86.63 Florida

3. 83.36 Southern Cal

4. 82.03 Texas

5. 79.02 Penn State

6. 73.45 Texas Tech

7. 71.19 Missouri

8. 70.30 TCU

9. 69.76 Ohio State

10. 68.76 Alabama

11. 68.32 Oklahoma St

12. 67.97 Utah

13. 67.44 Oregon

14. 67.34 Iowa

15. 67.23 Boise St

16. 66.62 California

17. 65.45 Mississippi

18. 64.81 Arizona

19. 64.24 Oregon St

20. 62.52 Florida St

21. 62.30 Georgia

22. 61.98 North Carolina

23. 61.90 Georgia Tech

24. 61.19 Nebraska

25. 59.69 Clemson

 

There is another incarnation of the rankings that's are a bit better, but i will go into these a little later. Anyways, OU is #1 in both and UF is #2 in both. Ought to be a great game.

 

Now defending the method. Of the BCS computers, only one has been released with this weeks games included. So I wanted to check the accuracy of said methods.

 

Alright, the average rankings (the ones that use WL and Point Diff) at predicting all 683 division 1 football games.

 

Winner Accuracy

565 82.72% - Meph

559 81.84% - Sagarin

 

Score Differential RMSE

13.61 - Meph

14.31 - Sagarin

 

Now let's look at points only methods, sagarins predictor and mine. note these WILL be less accurate in predicting wins because they dont use wins, but are more accurate at predicting future matchups. this is all expected

 

Winner Accuracy

81.11% - Meph

80.09% - Sagarin

 

Score Differential RMSE

13.18% - Meph

13.60% - Sagarin

 

Finally, the one the BCS requires. Only using WLs and who and where they played.

 

Winner Accuracy

84.04% - Meph

83.46% - Sagarin

 

Score Differential RMSE

14.87 - Meph

15.38 - Sagarin

[Mephistopheles]

http://fedexorangebowlmerch.com/2007A//catalog/index.php?cPath=91

 

cats out of the bag

 

orange bowl is selling merchandise for ou vs uf. apparently with uf as the #1

[snoodmonger]

The fact missouri is not only in the top 25 but rated highly in the top 25 in those three rating systems suggests it has serious flaws. I know I'm doing a 180 from my POV earlier in the year when I thought they were good, but I've seen little to suggest they were that good a team They put up a ton of points, but outside of Neb, they lost to every average or above average team the faced.

 

Edit to remove UI from "good" wins for Mizzou. Didn't realize they faceplanted so badly. I guess Buffalo and Nevada had okay seasons, though.

[OleMissCub]

The fact missouri is not only in the top 25 but rated highly in the top 25 in those three rating systems suggests it has serious flaws. I know I'm doing a 180 from my POV earlier in the year when I thought they were good, but I've seen little to suggest they were that good a team They put up a ton of points, but outside of Neb, they lost to every average or above average team the faced.

 

Edit to remove UI from "good" wins for Mizzou. Didn't realize they faceplanted so badly. I guess Buffalo and Nevada had good seasons, though.

 

Well they are obviously good enough to beat Ole Miss by 14-17 points. Doesn't matter that the Rebels were only outscored by 19 points the entire season.

[Derwood]

I think Penn State has a much better chance against USC than most. Discuss.

[OleMissCub]

I think Penn State has a much better chance against USC than most. Discuss.

 

I'll agree with that.

[manbearcub]

ACC lolwut

[Hosak8]

http://fedexorangebowlmerch.com/2007A//catalog/index.php?cPath=91

 

cats out of the bag

 

orange bowl is selling merchandise for ou vs uf. apparently with uf as the #1

 

Can't possibly be true. You already said otherwise, and you're a bit of a god, remember? :lol:

[B]

I think Penn State has a much better chance against USC than most. Discuss.

disagree.

[inari]

It sounds like the Capital One Bowl is having a hard time deciding between Michigan State and Iowa.

[Guest]

Your exclusion of Cincinnati from your ballot is completely laughable.

 

Also, big shock that you were more accurate than Sagarin on every single case you posted. I could have predicted that.

[Flames24Rulz]

How is the ACC the 2nd best conference in the country?

[Derwood]

I think Penn State has a much better chance against USC than most. Discuss.

disagree.

 

I didn't say they'd win, I said they had a chance.

 

I'm not sure what to make of USC. Obviously they're really good, but outside of Ohio State, they didn't play anyone good this year.

 

also, never count out JoePa in a Bowl game.

[manbearcub]

Iowa vs. South Carolina in the Outback Bowl

 

 

Northwestern in Alamo.

[ConstableRabbit]

Northwestern and Mizzou in the Alamo bowl:

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/college/chi081207-northwestern-bowl,0,7250767.story

 

I'm disappointed that a team we beat on the road and that has a worse record has leapfrogged us, but that's the name of the game. This wouldn't have happened if we just took care of business against an awful Indiana team. In any case, it should be a fun game and an absolute shootout.

[inari]

I was hoping Iowa would leapfrog MSU. Oh well. Despite the records, I think there should be little doubt that Iowa is a better team than either Northwestern or MSU. That said, I'm happy to have leapfrogged just one of them. Both would be greedy.

[Andy]

The Motor City Bowl has taken Central Michigan and Ball State will play Tulsa in the GMAC Bowl.

[manbearcub]

MSU vs. Georgia in Capital One.

[Derwood]

does that mean Michigan St. vs. Georgia in the Capital One Bowl?

[Butterscup1679666578]

I'm disappointed that a team we beat on the road and that has a worse record has leapfrogged us, but that's the name of the game. This wouldn't have happened if we just took care of business against an awful Kansas team. In any case, it should be a fun game and an absolute shootout.

[Andy]

Notre Dame will choose between playing Rice in the Texas Bowl and playing Louisiana Tech in the Independence Bowl.

[OleMissCub]

Texas Tech v. Ole Miss in Cotton, I'd assume.

[Flames24Rulz]

I've heard NIU might actually get the other berth in the Independence Bowl to play La Tech.

[Andy]

I've heard NIU might actually get the other berth in the Independence Bowl to play La Tech.

The more MAC bowls the better. Western Michigan should also be playing somewhere.

 

Now I'm seeing that ND might go to the Hawaii Bowl to play...Hawaii. Whatever.

[Mephistopheles]

They don't have any terrible teams. They have a lot of solid teams. They don't any Mississippi States, Iowa States, Purdues or Texas A&M's. Remember, 50 in this system is average. The teams in the ACC:

 

66.42 Georgia Tech

65.72 Florida St

64.29 North Carolina

62.56 Boston College

62.50 Virginia Tech

60.84 Clemson

60.24 Wake Forest

59.33 Miami FL

55.88 Maryland

55.21 North Carolina St

53.11 Virginia

50.21 Duke

 

Every single one of them is up above average. Sure, they had no truly great teams, but week in and week out you were going to face a quality opponent.

 

The Big 12, for comparison

83.81 Oklahoma

79.58 Texas

74.84 Texas Tech

67.75 Missouri

67.17 Oklahoma St

62.01 Nebraska

59.05 Kansas

51.19 Baylor

48.70 Colorado

45.35 Kansas St

44.80 Texas A&M

35.88 Iowa St

 

The SEC, for comparison

82.50 Florida

69.51 Alabama

65.13 Georgia

62.21 Mississippi

57.04 South Carolina

53.40 LSU

53.24 Vanderbilt

49.91 Tennessee

49.00 Kentucky

47.89 Arkansas

47.41 Auburn

40.43 Mississippi St

 

The Pac 10, for comparison

77.80 Southern Cal

64.97 Oregon

63.44 California

63.08 Oregon St

57.67 Arizona

50.77 Stanford

49.37 Arizona St

43.64 UCLA

32.49 Washington

26.45 Washington St

 

The Big Ten, for comparison

75.35 Penn State

69.68 Ohio State

62.68 Iowa

61.44 Michigan St

57.66 Northwestern

55.30 Wisconsin

51.75 Illinois

51.05 Minnesota

49.17 Purdue

43.95 Michigan

35.87 Indiana

 

The Big East, for comparison

62.10 Pittsburgh

61.03 Cincinnati

57.06 West Virginia

56.98 Rutgers

54.95 Connecticut

52.91 South Florida

42.08 Louisville

39.31 Syracuse

 

 

So, the Big XII has four teams ranked lower than anyone in the ACC. The SEC has five teams ranked lower than anyone in the ACC. The Pac 10 has four teams ranked lower than anyone in the ACC. The Big East and Big Ten have two teams ranked lower. The other BCS conferences collectively have 17 teams ranked lower than their worst team. All of the ACC is in the top 60.

 

If you think this is crap and the teams in the ACC all suck so they get wins and makes them look good, then consider this. No other conference proved more against other conferences on the field than the ACC. The ACC went 4-0 against the Big XII. The ACC went 6-4 against the SEC, mainly due to Florida and Alabama. The ACC went 2-2 against the Big East. The ACC went 1-1 against the Pac 10. Records vs BCS conferences

 

13-8 - Atlantic Coast

7-7 - Big East

5-5 - Big Ten

7-8 - Big 12

5-6 - Pac 10

6-9 - SEC