Week 13: Bears at Vikings, 7:15 on NBC

[jersey cubs fan]

Bears open as 3.5 point road dogs. The division is completely up for grabs and this winner of this game stands a tremendous shot of taking the crown and eventually hosting a playoff game. In my mind the Bears have a bad reputation on the national stage, but recently they've played pretty well, including 2-0 already this year on Sunday Night. It's never easy to play in the roller dome and I don't see the Bears winning this game unless the defensive improvement shown yesterday lasts. If GB loses tonight, or next week vs CAR, they will be game behind the winner of this big matchup.

[Soul]

Biiiiiig game next week. National TV audience, all those people sitting at home digesting their Thanksgiving leftovers, watching only the Bears/Vikes game.

 

If you're going to do something Lovie, now would be a good time to do it.

[UMFan83]

I realize the Packers/Bears game in Week 16, but this game is just as important. A win essentially puts the Vikings 2 games behind the Bears for the division. The only way the Vikings could get back into the race by tying the Bears record would be a 3 way tie with the Bears and Packers, and some tiebreaker magic, which isn't likely because I believe the first tiebreaker is H2H among common teams, which would be 1-3 for the Vikings, 2-1 for the Bears, and 2-1 for the Packers.

[bukie]

If the Vikings lose this game, they can no longer win any tiebreaker for the division.

[UMFan83]

If the Vikings lose this game, they can no longer win any tiebreaker for the division.

 

OK, so if they lose they are 2 back with 4 to play. Probably even a bigger game for them than us, but not by much.

 

Again, first tiebreaker is common record among tied teams

 

If Bears win:

 

Chi 2-1 (vs. GB)

GB 2-1 (@ Chi)

Min 1-3

 

If Vikings win

Chi 1-2 (vs. GB)

GB 2-1 (@ Chi)

Min 2-2

 

So that would leave the Bears needing to beat GB to go to the next tiebreaker. If that happened, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would be the same assuming everyone beats Detroit twice (which the Bears have). Then the next tiebreaker is common games, and I have no idea how to figure that out.

[bukie]

If the Vikings lose this game, they can no longer win any tiebreaker for the division.

 

OK, so if they lose they are 2 back with 4 to play. Probably even a bigger game for them than us, but not by much.

 

Again, first tiebreaker is common record among tied teams

 

If Bears win:

 

Chi 2-1 (vs. GB)

GB 2-1 (@ Chi)

Min 1-3

 

If Vikings win

Chi 1-2 (vs. GB)

GB 2-1 (@ Chi)

Min 2-2

 

So that would leave the Bears needing to beat GB to go to the next tiebreaker. If that happened, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would be the same assuming everyone beats Detroit twice (which the Bears have). Then the next tiebreaker is common games, and I have no idea how to figure that out.

 

In the division, common games for this season would be all division games + the NFC South games (ATL/NO/TB/CAR) + the AFC South games (TEN/IND/JAC/HOU). There are only 2 games on the schedule that aren't common games (NFC East opponent and NFC West opponent)

[UMFan83]

If the Vikings lose this game, they can no longer win any tiebreaker for the division.

 

OK, so if they lose they are 2 back with 4 to play. Probably even a bigger game for them than us, but not by much.

 

Again, first tiebreaker is common record among tied teams

 

If Bears win:

 

Chi 2-1 (vs. GB)

GB 2-1 (@ Chi)

Min 1-3

 

If Vikings win

Chi 1-2 (vs. GB)

GB 2-1 (@ Chi)

Min 2-2

 

So that would leave the Bears needing to beat GB to go to the next tiebreaker. If that happened, the next tiebreaker would be division record, which would be the same assuming everyone beats Detroit twice (which the Bears have). Then the next tiebreaker is common games, and I have no idea how to figure that out.

 

In the division, common games for this season would be all division games + the NFC South games (ATL/NO/TB/CAR) + the AFC South games (TEN/IND/JAC/HOU). There are only 2 games on the schedule that aren't common games (NFC East opponent and NFC West opponent)

 

Well that hurts the Bears then because they are 2-0 in their non-common opponent games, while the Packers are 1-1, and the Vikings are 0-0 (still play Arizona and NYG). So if we finish with the same record in that scenario the Packers or Vikings will probably take it, but I'm getting way way ahead of myself here.

[bukie]

Well that hurts the Bears then because they are 2-0 in their non-common opponent games, while the Packers are 1-1, and the Vikings are 0-0 (still play Arizona and NYG). So if we finish with the same record in that scenario the Packers or Vikings will probably take it, but I'm getting way way ahead of myself here.

 

Yeah, that was the other thing I forgot to mention: If the Bears lose this game, they can only win a tiebreaker if Detroit can beat one of Min/GB.

[UMFan83]

Well that hurts the Bears then because they are 2-0 in their non-common opponent games, while the Packers are 1-1, and the Vikings are 0-0 (still play Arizona and NYG). So if we finish with the same record in that scenario the Packers or Vikings will probably take it, but I'm getting way way ahead of myself here.

 

Yeah, that was the other thing I forgot to mention: If the Bears lose this game, they can only win a tiebreaker if Detroit can beat one of Min/GB.

 

Crap thats right. Hmm...we kinda need to win this game because I can't see the Bears outplaying the Packers and Vikings by 2 games over a 4 week period.

[UMFan83]

I know we've talked about this ad naseum, but I just posted this on the Bears message board to explain why bukie is completely right. See if you can follow it and it makes sense:

 

If the Bears lose this game, we have little shot to win any tiebreakers between GB/CHI, MIN/CHI or GB/MIN/CHI unless Detroit beats MIN or GB in their remaining 2 games. Here is why:

 

Tiebreakers for GB/CHI:

1. H2H - At best, 1-1

2. Division record - Currently: CHI - 3-1, GB 3-1. Assuming CHI loses to MIN and beats GB, and GB loses to CHI and beats DET, its CHI - 4-2, GB 4-2

3. Common teams W-L: The best way to figure this out is W-L record amongst non common games, since there are only 2 of them. The Bears are 2-0 against non-common teams, and the Packers are 1-1, which means the Packers will be guaranteed to have a better W-L against common teams, and thus will win the tie breaker and the Divison.

 

Tiebreakers for MIN/CHI

1. H2H - Assuming we lost this weekend, 1-1

2. Divison record - Currently: CHI 3-1, MIN 2-2. Assuming CHI loses to MIN and MIN beats DET and CHI beats GB, its CHI - 4-2, MIN - 4-2

3. Common teams W-L: Again record amongst non common teams. 2-0 for Chicago, 0-0 for Min (they play NYG and ARI). If the Bears or Vikings are to tie, the Vikings would need to win both those non-common games to advance to a tie. But also, you would have to assume they beat CHI this week as part of the original scenario, meaning the Vikings would have at a minimum 9 wins. But also, part of the scenario is they beat Detroit, that makes it 10 wins. If the Vikings finish with 10 wins, in beating the Bears along the way, the Bears would have to win out on all the rest of their games to tie the Vikings. So if that scenario occurs, the Bears are still alive. (still following me?)

4. Conference record - Currently: CHI 5-4, MIN 4-3. Again, to get to this point we have to make the following assumptions: MIN over CHI, NYG, ARI, DET, ATL over MIN, CHI over everyone but MIN. If those assumptions don't occur, the Bears are already eliminated, OR the original scenario proposed above doesn't apply. So that would put the Vikings conference record at 8-4, and the Bears conference record at 7-5. Bears eliminated, Vikings win division.

 

Tiebreakers for MIN/GB/CHI

1. H2H between MIN/GB/CHI - Currently: MIN: 1-2, CHI 1-1, GB 2-1. If MIN beats CHI and CHI would have to beat GB to keep the tiebreaker alive. Assuming they do, the H2H records would all be 2-2.

2. Division record - Again, if everyone goes 2-0 against Detroit (as assumed in the above scenario), the division records would be tied at 4-2.

3. Common games - CHI has a 2-0 record in non-common games, GB 1-1, and MIN 0-0. Chicago would be eliminated at this point, and GB and MIN would duke it out based on the next tiebreakers.

 

So if you are still following and this all make sense to you, its pretty clear. The Bears need to win this weekend. While its not impossible that MIN or GB will lose to DET, its not very probable. So if they do beat Detroit, Chicago loses all tie breakers, and the Bears would essentially be 2 GB the Vikings (and possibly Packers) with 4 to play.

[pitchcs]

Those tie breakers are way too much to worry about at this point.

 

I will be making my way up to Minny/St. Paul for this one. Been to the Metrodome for baseball but never football; should be a lot of Bears fans on hand.

[UMFan83]

Those tie breakers are way too much to worry about at this point.

 

I will be making my way up to Minny/St. Paul for this one. Been to the Metrodome for baseball but never football; should be a lot of Bears fans on hand.

 

They are, but the basic idea is: If the Bears lose this weekend, they will be 2 GB the Vikings and possibly Packers with 4 games to go. The rest is just explaining how I got to that point.

 

Granted, the Vikings schedule is awfully tough the rest of the year. Chi, Det, Atl, Ari, NYG is their remaining schedule, so its certainly possible to pick up 2 games in a 4 game stretch.

[Soul]

Those tie breakers are way too much to worry about at this point.

 

Hmmm. I don't agree. Tiebreakers always seem to come into play at the end, especially in tight divisional/WC races. And we're in a tight divisional race.

 

If the Bears lose out on most of their tiebreakers with a loss on Sunday, for me that makes this win paramount.

[UMFan83]

The Bears schedule turns wacky after yesterday's game. From here on out we have:

 

Week 13: Sunday Night Football

Week 14: Sunday Noon

Week 15: Thursday Night Football

Week 16: Monday Night Football

Week 17: Sunday Noon

 

Weird that we're going to go this whole year without a Sunday 3:15 game. Seems like we have 2-3 of these a year usually, but I guess the Bears weren't a big enough draw, plus didn't play any West Coast teams on the road.

[Banedon]

The Bears schedule turns wacky after yesterday's game. From here on out we have:

 

Week 13: Sunday Night Football

Week 14: Sunday Noon

Week 15: Thursday Night Football

Week 16: Monday Night Football

Week 17: Sunday Noon

 

Weird that we're going to go this whole year without a Sunday 3:15 game. Seems like we have 2-3 of these a year usually, but I guess the Bears weren't a big enough draw, plus didn't play any West Coast teams on the road.

 

I noticed that when the schedule came out. I hate the 3:15 games anyway. It really kinda messes with my whole day. With the noon games, I can have a slow lazy morning, watch the game and still have daytime left to get some "real life" stuff done. By the time a 3:15 game is over, it's dark and dinner time, and gotta get the kid ready for bed...my day is gone, so I gotta get my stuff done early...

 

Bleh.

[pitchcs]

Those tie breakers are way too much to worry about at this point.

 

Hmmm. I don't agree. Tiebreakers always seem to come into play at the end, especially in tight divisional/WC races. And we're in a tight divisional race.

 

If the Bears lose out on most of their tiebreakers with a loss on Sunday, for me that makes this win paramount.

 

Exactly...win and you don't have to worry about it. I just don't see the Bears winning the division with a loss Sunday @ Minny. That Saints home game scares me big time.

[rawaction]

Those tie breakers are way too much to worry about at this point.

 

Hmmm. I don't agree. Tiebreakers always seem to come into play at the end, especially in tight divisional/WC races. And we're in a tight divisional race.

 

If the Bears lose out on most of their tiebreakers with a loss on Sunday, for me that makes this win paramount.

 

Exactly...win and you don't have to worry about it. I just don't see the Bears winning the division with a loss Sunday @ Minny. That Saints home game scares me big time.

 

I think the Bears could win out even if they lose this game. They will probably be favored in every game, though I'd imagine it'd be pretty close at home vs. NO and GB.

[Soul]

After last night, that NO game suddenly scares me more. Yes, it will be in the cold @ Soldier Field, but still.

[Smack]

After last night, that NO game suddenly scares me more. Yes, it will be in the cold @ Soldier Field, but still.

 

We can hope for a game like Bears/Packers last year at Soldier. Frigid and windy.

[UMFan83]

After last night, that NO game suddenly scares me more. Yes, it will be in the cold @ Soldier Field, but still.

 

Yeah Brees against out pass D? Ouch

[Soul]

After last night, that NO game suddenly scares me more. Yes, it will be in the cold @ Soldier Field, but still.

 

Yeah Brees against out pass D? Ouch

 

I don't have the first clue how they'll be able to stop that. Even in sub-freezing temps. But, we'll see.

[UMFan83]

I'll try to predict the rest of the season

 

Bears:

@ Min - L (6-6)

v. Jax - W (7-6)

v. NO - L (7-7)

v. GB - W (8-7)

@ Hou - W (9-7)

 

Vikings:

v. Chi - W (7-5)

@ Det - W (8-5)

@ Ari - L (8-6)

v. Atl - L (8-7)

v. NYG - L (yes even with rested players) (8-8)

 

Packers:

v. Car - L (5-7)

v. Hou - W (6-7)

@ Jax - W (7-7)

@ Chi - L (7-8)

v. Det - W (8-8)

[jersey cubs fan]

What's the situation with the Minnesota players that are about to be suspended?

[UK1679666180]

What's the situation with the Minnesota players that are about to be suspended?

 

Nothing yet, but don't be surprised if it's delayed for another week.

[rawaction]

I don't know why everyone is assuming a loss at home vs. NO. The Saints have won 1 road game this year, and that was against 1-10 KC. They've never had success in cold weather including last year vs. a dismal Bears team. Granted, they did move the ball pretty well, but they couldn't stop a lackluster Bears offense.