Re: Peavy High on Cubs Wish List

[davearm2]

So with Vitters as the possible centerpiece of this deal, do we still need the 3rd team to get involved?

It definitely sounds like it or else it would have been done already IMO. They are probably looking for one more starting pitcher that they feel is a fit for them in the future and apparently they don't feel Marshall is the guy for that and frankly, I'm surprised about that.

 

I'm thinking Hendry might be saying no to Marshall in the trade due to them wanting him as the swingman and put Shark in the minors to start.

From the Padres perspective what you said makes sense though.

Actually I've been operating under the presumption that SD wanted two ML-ready SPs: Marshall is the first, and the Cubs need to source the second from another team since they don't have another of their own to put with Marshall.

 

Now conceivably, Hendry is offering only one of Marshall and Vitters. That's certainly a possibility.

I wonder how far off of Marshall Towers views Gaudin...

Actually that was my first thought too, upon reading this Gaudin nontender business. He could potentially fit nicely into this SD framework.

[Banedon]

Peavy

Z

Dempster

Lilly

Harden

:yahoo: \:D/ :yahoo: \:D/

 

Odds that no one in that rotation both pitches 25 starts and has an ERA better than 3.6?

 

You realize that everyone in that rotation made 25 starts last year, and only Zambrano and Lilly had an ERA higher than 3.6. Anything can happen, but I gotta think the odds that none of them meet both of those criteria are smaller than just about every other rotation in the league (assuming the Peavy deal happens of course).

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Peavy

Z

Dempster

Lilly

Harden

:yahoo: \:D/ :yahoo: \:D/

 

Odds that no one in that rotation both pitches 25 starts and has an ERA better than 3.6?

 

You realize that everyone in that rotation made 25 starts last year, and only Zambrano and Lilly had an ERA higher than 3.6. Anything can happen, but I gotta think the odds that none of them meet both of those criteria are smaller than just about every other rotation in the league (assuming the Peavy deal happens of course).

 

Dempster is coming off an unusually good year pitching-wise, Harden is coming off the same health-wise, and Peavy leaving the the Coors Field of right-handed pitching with a 3.80 career road ERA and a 4.28 for 2008.

 

I don't think that rotation is as good as people expect. It's deep with above-average starters, but it seriously lacks dominance.

[RedFlash]

Peavy

Z

Dempster

Lilly

Harden

:yahoo: \:D/ :yahoo: \:D/

 

Odds that no one in that rotation both pitches 25 starts and has an ERA better than 3.6?

 

You realize that everyone in that rotation made 25 starts last year, and only Zambrano and Lilly had an ERA higher than 3.6. Anything can happen, but I gotta think the odds that none of them meet both of those criteria are smaller than just about every other rotation in the league (assuming the Peavy deal happens of course).

 

Dempster is coming off an unusually good year pitching-wise, Harden is coming off the same health-wise, and Peavy leaving the the Coors Field of right-handed pitching with a 3.80 career road ERA and a 4.28 for 2008.

 

I don't think that rotation is as good as people expect. It's deep with above-average starters, but it seriously lacks dominance.

 

Peavy isn't "dominant"? I disagree on Peavy not being dominant. And that staff has the potential to have three guys who could dominate the game any gaiven start, and the Cubs could have three guys win atleast 17 games next yr based on talent, alone. So we have to agree to disagree on the potential of that staff.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Peavy isn't "dominant"? I disagree on Peavy not being dominant. And that staff has the potential to have three guys who could dominate the game any gaiven start, and the Cubs could have three guys win atleast 17 games next yr based on talent, alone. So we have to agree to disagree on the potential of that staff.

 

Without Petco to back him up, Peavy is not dominant.

[UMFan83]

I agree on the other points, but I think you are undervaluing Peavy.

 

Road ERA by season

 

2008: 4.28

2007: 2.57

2006: 4.57

2005: 2.98

2004: 2.33

 

It should also be noted that in 2006 and 2008 Peavy was rumored to be pitching through pain and injuries. So which is the fluke 06 and 08 or 04, 05 and 07?

 

Besides, its not like Wrigley is a launching pad most days. The NL West might have a lot of pitcher friendly parks, but its not like the NL Central is Bandbox Central.

 

According to ESPN.com's Park Factors (as it pertains to runs scored)

 

Chase Field: 2/30

Coors: 3/30

AT&T Park: 11/30

Dodger Stadium: 29/30

Petco: 30/30

 

Average: 15th

 

Great American: 7/30

Wrigley Field: 8/30

Minute Maid Park: 14/30

Miller Park 22/30

Busch Stadium: 23/30

PNC Park: 27/30

 

Average: 17th

 

I know this is really simple analysis, but point stands.

Edited December 4, 2008 by UMFan83

[Guest]

Peavy

Z

Dempster

Lilly

Harden

:yahoo: \:D/ :yahoo: \:D/

 

Odds that no one in that rotation both pitches 25 starts and has an ERA better than 3.6?

 

You realize that everyone in that rotation made 25 starts last year, and only Zambrano and Lilly had an ERA higher than 3.6. Anything can happen, but I gotta think the odds that none of them meet both of those criteria are smaller than just about every other rotation in the league (assuming the Peavy deal happens of course).

 

Dempster is coming off an unusually good year pitching-wise, Harden is coming off the same health-wise, and Peavy leaving the the Coors Field of right-handed pitching with a 3.80 career road ERA and a 4.28 for 2008.

 

I don't think that rotation is as good as people expect. It's deep with above-average starters, but it seriously lacks dominance.

Peavy has better than a strikeout per inning average across his career and has better than a 3-1 K/BB ratio. Those ratios stay pretty consistent in all of his seasons. You can argue that he won't be as homer-proof away from Petco (and be right), but his peripherals all suggest he should still be one of the best pitchers in MLB whether he's in Wrigley or anywhere else.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I agree on the other points, but I think you are undervaluing Peavy.

 

Road ERA by season

 

2008: 4.28

2007: 2.57

2006: 4.57

2005: 2.98

2004: 2.33

 

It should also be noted that in 2006 and 2008 Peavy was rumored to be pitching through pain and injuries. So which is the fluke 06 and 08 or 04, 05 and 07?

 

Fun with arbitrary endpoints.

 

2003: 4.59

2002: 6.23

 

I'm much more inclined to say 04, 05, and 07 are the "flukes" (if we must cherrypick) than 02, 03, 06 and 08. The career totals tell a story that can't be brushed off as easily as rumors of arm problems.

[JWCUB]

Peavy

Z

Dempster

Lilly

Harden

:yahoo: \:D/ :yahoo: \:D/

 

Odds that no one in that rotation both pitches 25 starts and has an ERA better than 3.6?

 

You realize that everyone in that rotation made 25 starts last year, and only Zambrano and Lilly had an ERA higher than 3.6. Anything can happen, but I gotta think the odds that none of them meet both of those criteria are smaller than just about every other rotation in the league (assuming the Peavy deal happens of course).

 

Dempster is coming off an unusually good year pitching-wise, Harden is coming off the same health-wise, and Peavy leaving the the Coors Field of right-handed pitching with a 3.80 career road ERA and a 4.28 for 2008.

 

I don't think that rotation is as good as people expect. It's deep with above-average starters, but it seriously lacks dominance.

 

IF all 5 can stay healthy.....and we all know with the Cubs thats a big if......That would be the most dominate rotation since the Braves staff of the 90's. Three potential Cy Young Canidates: Peavy, Z, Harden Dempster coming off a career year and Lilly at #5 would be a 2 or 3 on most clubs. That's a damn good rotation.

[ChiCubsFan]

wow, this guy can argue just about anything. a rotation featuring carlos zambrano as its 3rd best starter is not dominant? peavy and harden are legit aces and z and dempster (if he pitches like he did last year) are not too far off being aces as well.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Peavy has better than a strikeout per inning average across his career and has better than a 3-1 K/BB ratio. Those ratios stay pretty consistent in all of his seasons. You can argue that he won't be as homer-proof away from Petco (and be right), but his peripherals all suggest he should still be one of the best pitchers in MLB whether he's in Wrigley or anywhere else.

 

His HR rate isn't the only peripheral that dips on the road.

 

K/IP: .925

BB/IP: 0.363

K/BB: 2.54

 

ALL his peripherals take a big dip outside of San Diego.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

wow, this guy can argue just about anything. a rotation featuring carlos zambrano as its 3rd best starter is not dominant? peavy and harden are legit aces and z and dempster (if he pitches like he did last year) are not too far off being aces as well.

 

Names, names, names. Yes, it's got pretty names. And it's definitely a good rotation if everything goes right. But with an injury problem, a guy with declining peripherals, a home-hero who is losing his favorable park and guy who went from mediocre to awesome quite suddenly at an advanced age, I think the odds of many things going wrong are at least as likely.

[RedFlash]

Peavy isn't "dominant"? I disagree on Peavy not being dominant. And that staff has the potential to have three guys who could dominate the game any gaiven start, and the Cubs could have three guys win atleast 17 games next yr based on talent, alone. So we have to agree to disagree on the potential of that staff.

 

Without Petco to back him up, Peavy is not dominant.

 

Then you have to throw out ballparks who are considered offense, like Arizona and Colorado---even with the humidor. We can play this game. Peavy isn't Zito in that he won a Cy Young on smoke and mirrors, he has legit ace staff and can carry a pitching staff.

 

Besides

ERA .v. NL Central teams

 

Mil: 3.43

Hou: 3.38

Card: 2.77

Pitt: 2.25

Cinn: 3.16

 

at Wrigley: 3.68

 

That's good enough for me.

[UMFan83]

I agree on the other points, but I think you are undervaluing Peavy.

 

Road ERA by season

 

2008: 4.28

2007: 2.57

2006: 4.57

2005: 2.98

2004: 2.33

 

It should also be noted that in 2006 and 2008 Peavy was rumored to be pitching through pain and injuries. So which is the fluke 06 and 08 or 04, 05 and 07?

 

Fun with arbitrary endpoints.

 

2003: 4.59

2002: 6.23

 

I'm much more inclined to say 04, 05, and 07 are the "flukes" (if we must cherrypick) than 02, 03, 06 and 08. The career totals tell a story that can't be brushed off as easily as rumors of arm problems.

 

I didn't include 2002 and 2003 because they were the first 2 years in his career, one of which he made only 17 starts, and they weren't played at Petco Park, nullifying any H/R comparison not because they didn't fit my argument.

 

Besides, in 2002 he had a 3.57 ERA at home and a 4.59 ERA on the road in 2003 and 2.56 ERA at home and a 6.23 ERA on the road in 2002, without the benefit of cozy dimensions and marine layer. So is the problem that he can't pitch on the road in general then?

Edited December 4, 2008 by UMFan83

[Guest]

Peavy has better than a strikeout per inning average across his career and has better than a 3-1 K/BB ratio. Those ratios stay pretty consistent in all of his seasons. You can argue that he won't be as homer-proof away from Petco (and be right), but his peripherals all suggest he should still be one of the best pitchers in MLB whether he's in Wrigley or anywhere else.

 

His HR rate isn't the only peripheral that dips on the road.

 

K/IP: .925

BB/IP: 0.363

K/BB: 2.54

 

ALL his peripherals take a big dip outside of San Diego.

Do me a favor and tell me how those rank amongst mlb starters during that timeframe.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Peavy has better than a strikeout per inning average across his career and has better than a 3-1 K/BB ratio. Those ratios stay pretty consistent in all of his seasons. You can argue that he won't be as homer-proof away from Petco (and be right), but his peripherals all suggest he should still be one of the best pitchers in MLB whether he's in Wrigley or anywhere else.

 

His HR rate isn't the only peripheral that dips on the road.

 

K/IP: .925

BB/IP: 0.363

K/BB: 2.54

 

ALL his peripherals take a big dip outside of San Diego.

Do me a favor and tell me how those rank amongst mlb starters during that timeframe.

 

That's a lot of datamining.

 

Point is, you pointed some thresholds out that I'm pointing out he can't cross on the road.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Besides, in 2002 he had a 3.57 ERA at home and a 4.59 ERA on the road in 2003 and 2.56 ERA at home and a 6.23 ERA on the road in 2002, without the benefit of cozy dimensions and marine layer. So is the problem that he can't pitch on the road in general then?

 

Don't know the reason, I just know I have a hard time projecting dominance from a guy being removed from the only environment he's been dominant in.

 

I expect him to be a very good starter, but I think there's going to be a lot of disappointed Cubs fans when his ERA looks more like the 3.6 of his career road totals than the sub-3.00's he's been posting.

[ChiCubsFan]

wow, this guy can argue just about anything. a rotation featuring carlos zambrano as its 3rd best starter is not dominant? peavy and harden are legit aces and z and dempster (if he pitches like he did last year) are not too far off being aces as well.

 

Names, names, names. Yes, it's got pretty names. And it's definitely a good rotation if everything goes right. But with an injury problem, a guy with declining peripherals, a home-hero who is losing his favorable park and guy who went from mediocre to awesome quite suddenly at an advanced age, I think the odds of many things going wrong are at least as likely.

 

But you said it "lacks dominance". We would have 5 pitchers who can dominate on any given night. 3 in particular who have some of the best "stuff" in baseball

 

And the chances of none of them having an era under 3.6 and making 25 starts is very, very small.

[UMFan83]

Besides, in 2002 he had a 3.57 ERA at home and a 4.59 ERA on the road in 2003 and 2.56 ERA at home and a 6.23 ERA on the road in 2002, without the benefit of cozy dimensions and marine layer. So is the problem that he can't pitch on the road in general then?

 

Don't know the reason, I just know I have a hard time projecting dominance from a guy being removed from the only environment he's been dominant in.

 

I expect him to be a very good starter, but I think there's going to be a lot of disappointed Cubs fans when his ERA looks more like the 3.6 of his career road totals than the sub-3.00's he's been posting.

 

I don't see it, I see 04,05,07 Peavy when he was at his best on the road and at home. I'm not saying he's going to put up a sub-3.00 ERA with the Cubs, but I'd be more surprised with a 3.60 ERA than a 2.95 ERA.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

wow, this guy can argue just about anything. a rotation featuring carlos zambrano as its 3rd best starter is not dominant? peavy and harden are legit aces and z and dempster (if he pitches like he did last year) are not too far off being aces as well.

 

Names, names, names. Yes, it's got pretty names. And it's definitely a good rotation if everything goes right. But with an injury problem, a guy with declining peripherals, a home-hero who is losing his favorable park and guy who went from mediocre to awesome quite suddenly at an advanced age, I think the odds of many things going wrong are at least as likely.

 

But you said it "lacks dominance". We would have 5 pitchers who can dominate on any given night. 3 in particular who have some of the best "stuff" in baseball

 

And the chances of none of them having an era under 3.6 and making 25 starts is very, very small.

 

 

We're getting into semantics one "dominance." All pitchers have a chance to be dominant on any given night. I think there's a good chance this rotation lacks any pitchers with dominant 2009 seasons.

 

The fact that you think the 3.6/25 start thing is "very, very small" is exactly the sort of overrating I'm arguing Cubs fans are doing. In terms of sum value, I expect that rotation to be the best in the NL, but it's not going to go down into the annals of history or anything.

[ChiCubsFan]

wow, this guy can argue just about anything. a rotation featuring carlos zambrano as its 3rd best starter is not dominant? peavy and harden are legit aces and z and dempster (if he pitches like he did last year) are not too far off being aces as well.

 

Names, names, names. Yes, it's got pretty names. And it's definitely a good rotation if everything goes right. But with an injury problem, a guy with declining peripherals, a home-hero who is losing his favorable park and guy who went from mediocre to awesome quite suddenly at an advanced age, I think the odds of many things going wrong are at least as likely.

 

But you said it "lacks dominance". We would have 5 pitchers who can dominate on any given night. 3 in particular who have some of the best "stuff" in baseball

 

And the chances of none of them having an era under 3.6 and making 25 starts is very, very small.

 

 

We're getting into semantics one "dominance." All pitchers have a chance to be dominant on any given night. I think there's a good chance this rotation lacks any pitchers with dominant 2009 seasons.

 

The fact that you think the 3.6/25 start thing is "very, very small" is exactly the sort of overrating I'm arguing Cubs fans are doing. In terms of sum value, I expect that rotation to be the best in the NL, but it's not going to go down into the annals of history or anything.

 

How is that overrating? The chances that at least 1 out of 5 starting pitchers that are all well above average don't surpass that cutoff (a cutoff which isn't even that good for a starting pitcher) is very small. You honestly don't agree with that?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How many rotations have any pitchers better than Peavy or Harden? 10 in all of baseball if we're being generous to them and pessimistic about Peavy's splits? How many of them have two of those guys?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

How is that overrating? The chances that at least 1 out of 5 starting pitchers that are all well above average don't surpass that cutoff (a cutoff which isn't even that good for a starting pitcher) is very small. You honestly don't agree with that?

 

So you think the combined odds of Zambrano/Lilly repeating 2008, Peavy's road self being his true self, Harden missing 7-9 starts and Dempster reverting is "very, very small"?

[Mephistopheles]

The problem is, on a production basis, Carlos Zambrano might be better than all three of them. Rich Harden, while great at pitching, swings the bat like a little leaguer.

[ChiCubsFan]

How is that overrating? The chances that at least 1 out of 5 starting pitchers that are all well above average don't surpass that cutoff (a cutoff which isn't even that good for a starting pitcher) is very small. You honestly don't agree with that?

 

So you think the combined odds of Zambrano/Lilly repeating 2008, Peavy's road self being his true self, Harden missing 7-9 starts and Dempster reverting is "very, very small"?

 

Yes, definitely.