Cubs Top Prospects Lists (BP, John Sickels, BA, Keith Law)

[Rob]

Here's my personal list... (based on absolutely nothing)

 

1. Josh Vitters

2. Jeff Samardzija

3. Hak-ju Lee

4. Andrew Cashner

5. Wellington Castillo

6. Jay Jackson

7. Dae-Eun Rhee

8. Ryan Flaherty

9. Micah Hoffpauir

10. Tyler Colvin

11. Chris Carpenter

12. Junior Lake

13. Aaron Schafer

14. Starlin Castro

15. Dan McDaniel

16. Brandon Guyer

17. Matt Cerda

18. Esmalin Caridad

19. Donald Veal

20. Larry Suarez

21. Tony Thomas

22. Mitch Atkins

23. Marwin Gonzalez

24. Drew Rundle

25. Hung-Wen Chen

26. Dylan Johnston

27. Alex Maestri

28. Jovan Rosa

29. Marquez Smith

30. Roberto Hernandez

 

Other guys I'm keeping my eye on - Chris Huseby, Kyler Burke

[Guest]

Baseball America's top 10 Florida Marlins prospects:

 

1. Cameron Maybin, of

2. Mike Stanton, of

3. Logan Morrison, 1b

4. Sean West, lhp

5. Ryan Tucker, rhp

6. Matt Dominguez, 3b

7. Kyle Skipworth, c

8. Gaby Sanchez, 1b/3b

9. Chris Coghlan, 2b

10. Jose Ceda, rhp

 

Best Fastball: Jose Ceda

 

And here's a blurb from their write-up on Ceda:

 

The Future: He'll get every opportunity to break camp with the Marlins in 2009. He likely would start out by setting up young closer Matt Lindstrom, but some believe it's only a matter of time before the job is Ceda's.

[Guest]

Inside the Ivy's Top 10 (11-20 will be posted later): http://cubs.scout.com/2/823803.html

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3. Andrew Cashner, RHP

4. Welington Castillo, C

5. Jay Jackson, RHP

6. Ryan Flaherty, INF

7. Mitch Atkins, RHP

8. Tyler Colvin, OF

9. Kevin Hart, RHP

10. Micah Hoffpauir, INF/OF

[Tryptamine]

Inside the Ivy's Top 10 (11-20 will be posted later): http://cubs.scout.com/2/823803.html

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3. Andrew Cashner, RHP

4. Welington Castillo, C

5. Jay Jackson, RHP

6. Ryan Flaherty, INF

7. Mitch Atkins, RHP

8. Tyler Colvin, OF

9. Kevin Hart, RHP

10. Micah Hoffpauir, INF/OF

 

Kevin Hart and Mitch Atkins in our top 10 makes me very very sad.

[YearofDaCubs]

Inside the Ivy's Top 10 (11-20 will be posted later): http://cubs.scout.com/2/823803.html

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3. Andrew Cashner, RHP

4. Welington Castillo, C

5. Jay Jackson, RHP

6. Ryan Flaherty, INF

7. Mitch Atkins, RHP

8. Tyler Colvin, OF

9. Kevin Hart, RHP

10. Micah Hoffpauir, INF/OF

Wow, that's bad. We really need to find better personnel for our drafting and scouting. Wilken really hasn't made a difference.

[Guest]

I don't think you'll see any other top 10 lists with Atkins, Hart or Hoffpauir - the Cubs system isn't as bad as that (still one of the worst 10 in baseball).

 

Rhee and Lee probably should be up there. Ceda was traded away, he made it into BA's top 10 Marlins list and the Marlins have a much better system.

[Post Count Padder]

Inside the Ivy's Top 10 (11-20 will be posted later): http://cubs.scout.com/2/823803.html

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3. Andrew Cashner, RHP

4. Welington Castillo, C

5. Jay Jackson, RHP

6. Ryan Flaherty, INF

7. Mitch Atkins, RHP

8. Tyler Colvin, OF

9. Kevin Hart, RHP

10. Micah Hoffpauir, INF/OF

Problems:

 

No Lee or Rhee

 

Hart isn't still a prospect, even if he somehow once was.

 

Hoffpauir isn't a prospect

 

Atkins probably shouldn't be in the top 10. Maybe 15, but not 10.

[soonercub]

I think you have to keep in mind that we have dealt some prospects that would be on that list. Donaldson and E. Patt come to mind.

 

In Wilken's first draft he didn't get a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round pick. I think we got some nice talent at the lower levels, but Stockton kinda killed us for a couple years and our upper levels don't have much. Hendry did a nice job when he ran the draft and produced several big leaguers.

 

It seem like they have been drafting safer college kids and they have been trying to sign more toolsy international players.

[the splendid splinter]

Just look at the lack of production in the 2003-2005 drafts and couple that with losing picks 2,3,4 in 2006 and the 2nd round in 2007 and its a wonder that we've got anything in the system. Thank heavens we drafted Donaldson with our sandwich pick in 2007 or we wouldnt have had the chip to get Harden, because without him we cant make that deal, according to articles quoting Oakland team sources.

[Guest]

Inside the Ivy's Top 10 (11-20 will be posted later): http://cubs.scout.com/2/823803.html

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

3. Andrew Cashner, RHP

4. Welington Castillo, C

5. Jay Jackson, RHP

6. Ryan Flaherty, INF

7. Mitch Atkins, RHP

8. Tyler Colvin, OF

9. Kevin Hart, RHP

10. Micah Hoffpauir, INF/OF

 

11-20: http://cubs.scout.com/2/828178.html

 

11. Esmailin Caridad, RHP

12. Brandon Guyer, OF

13. Marcos Mateo, RHP

14. Jovan Rosa, INF

15. James Russell, LHP

16. Dan McDaniel, RHP

17. Chris Carpenter, RHP

18. Aaron Shafer, RHP

19. Ryan Acosta, RHP

20. Matt Cerda, C

 

And they had this on Marcos Mateo:

 

In his first season as a Cubs prospect, the former Cincinnati Reds farmhand made strides with the development of a breaking ball -- a hard slider that was regularly 87 mph and, at least according to Cubs Scouting Director Tim Wilken, as high as 91 mph on occasion. Moreover, Mateo’s fastball topped out at 97 mph, and the Cubs’ front office considered his stuff as good if not better than that of Jose Ceda, whom they traded to the Florida Marlins for reliever Kevin Gregg in November.

 

I never knew Marcos could throw that hard.

[Guest]

The Marcos Mateo love continues:

 

Justin (Nashville, TN): Whet my appetite for the Prospect Handbook . . . who's the 17th best prospect in the Cubs organization?

 

Jim Callis : We'll kick off the lightning round here . . . RHP Marcos Mateo.

[Guest]

BA's top 10: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267408.html

 

TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Josh Vitters, 3b

2. Jeff Samardzija, rhp

3. Andrew Cashner, rhp

4. Dae-Eun Rhee, rhp

5. Wellington Castillo, c

6. Kevin Hart, rhp

7. Starlin Castro, ss/2b

8. Ryan Flaherty, ss

9. Jay Jackson, rhp

10. Hak-Ju Lee, ss

 

Kevin Hart? Seriously?

[Guest]

BEST TOOLS

Best Hitter for Average Josh Vitters

Best Power Hitter Josh Vitters

Best Strike-Zone Discipline Sam Fuld

Fastest Baserunner Tony Campana

Best Athlete Brandon Guyer

Best Fastball Jeff Samardzija

Best Curveball Casey Lambert

Best Slider Andrew Cashner

Best Changeup Dae-Eun Rhee

Best Control Esmailin Caridad

Best Defensive Catcher Luis Flores

Best Defensive Infielder Darwin Barney

Best Infield Arm Junior Lake

Best Defensive Outfielder Sam Fuld

Best Outfield Arm Kyler Burke

[Guest]

Note on the top 10 (won't post whole blurbs):

 

1. Vitters: His defense has improved significantly, now projects to be an avg defender. Home run power should come after all the doubles last season. Could handle Daytona to start the season but will likely get a few months at Peoria first.

2. Samardzija: Cubs think he can start. One scout thought the tweaks in his delivery puts more stress on his shoulder.

3. Cashner: Hit 99 in the season finale at Daytona. The Cubs will have him start at either Peoria or Daytona and "believes" in his change.

4. Rhee: Has the best change in the system and his 90-94 mph FB, curve and change/split could all be plus pitches. Expected back by midseason.

5. Castillo: Compared positively to Yadier Molina. Still struggles with the strike zone and breaking balls when batting.

6. Hart: Blew away hitters at 94-96 mph out of the pen and dominated with his cutter. :shock: His future is in the Cubs pen.

7. Castro: Good approach at the plate, isn't overmatched by breaking pitches. Plus range, steady hands and a solid and accurate arm at SS. Only 6'1, 160 lbs though.

8. Flaherty: Sweet swing and good hand eye coordination, still needs to fill out and more power will come then. Definitely won't stick at SS.

9. Jackson: FB and slider are his best weapons, the curve is average and he has a feel for the change. Athletic, pounds the strike zone well. His control is ahead of his command.

10. Lee: Had TJS but should be ready for start of season. EXTREMELY skinny but has plus-plus speed, uses the whole field while batting, is fluid on defense and exhibited a strong arm pre-TJS. Has a reputation for being a hot dog. One scout who didn't like him thought he'd only be a slap hitter.

[Guest]

Jim Callis will chat at 12:30 pm CT: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/chat/chat.php?id=2009011201

[BeerHere]

BA's top 10: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267408.html

 

TOP TEN PROSPECTS

1. Josh Vitters, 3b

2. Jeff Samardzija, rhp

3. Andrew Cashner, rhp

4. Dae-Eun Rhee, rhp

5. Wellington Castillo, c

6. Kevin Hart, rhp

7. Starlin Castro, ss/2b

8. Ryan Flaherty, ss

9. Jay Jackson, rhp

10. Hak-Ju Lee, ss

 

Kevin Hart? Seriously?

 

No Tyler Colvin.

[Guest]

Yeah, that surprised me - especially given his August rebound and how weak the system is. Kevin Hart at 6 befuddles me.

 

ETA: First chat question and Callis reveals Colvin fell all the way to 16.

[Guest]

Ouch, BA rates the Cubs system as 27th in all of baseball.

[BeerHere]

Anyone else notice the title of the chat in BA is

"Chicago Cuba Top 10 Prospects Chat With Jim Callis"

[Guest]

Chat is over. From what Callis said, we can piece a few other guys in the top 31:

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3b

2. Jeff Samardzija, rhp

3. Andrew Cashner, rhp

4. Dae-Eun Rhee, rhp

5. Wellington Castillo, c

6. Kevin Hart, rhp

7. Starlin Castro, ss/2b

8. Ryan Flaherty, ss

9. Jay Jackson, rhp

10. Hak-Ju Lee, ss

11. Steve Clevenger, c

12-15: Brandon Guyer, of

16. Tyler Colvin, of

17. Marcos Mateo, rhp

18-25: Mitch Atkins, rhp

21-25: Esmailin Caridad, rhp

21-30: Ty Wright, of

30. Su-Min Jung, rhp

31. Aaron Shafer, rhp

 

Not in top 31: Donnie Veal, Larry Suarez, Robert Hernandez, Jeffry Antigua, Casey Coleman.

 

And a few select questions that I thought were the most interesting:

 

Q: JAYPERS from IL asks:

I'm a bit surprised not to see Colvin on the list this year. What does he need to improve upon after a mediocre 2008, and was he one of your last cuts?

 

A: Jim Callis: Let's kick this chat off a couple of minutes early while we await the results of the HOF voting . . . I couldn't put Tyler Colvin on the Top 10 this year. I won't give away a lot of the specific 11-30 rankings from the Top 30 in the Prospect Handbook, but to show you how close he was, I'll tell you that Colvin came in at No. 16. He's intriguing and has some athleticism, but it's hard to find a scout outside the organization with much enthusiasm for him. His elbow did bother him last year and required Tommy John surgery, but I don't think the elbow can take all the blame for a .256/.312/.424 season with a 101-44 K-BB ratio. The consensus from scouts were that his tools looked pretty fringy across the board in 2008 and that he's not going to be a center fielder. If he's playing on a corner, he's going to have to do a lot more offensively.

 

Q: Otto from Kankakee, IL asks:

If the Top 100 list was live today how many Cubs would make it, and approximately where would Vitters rank?

 

A: Jim Callis: I ranked Vitters No. 37 when I put together my personal Top 50 for the Prospect Handbook. I suspect Jeff Samardzija will make the back half of our Top 100 Prospects list, and those will probably be the only two Cubs on there.

 

Q: Navin from Pasadena, CA asks:

Last year at this time, I asked you about Dae-Eun Rhee and you clued us in on him. This time, I was wondering if you could fill us in on the Cubs two most recent Korean signees: Soo-Min Jung and Jae-Hoon Ha. Thank you very much!

 

A: Jim Callis: Su-Min Jung is the better of those two and checked in at No. 30 on the Top 30. He projects to pitch in the low 90s with a plus breaking ball down the road. He signed for $510,000 out of the same high school that produced Shin-Soo Choo and Cha Seung Baek. Ha, a catcher, isn't as highly regarded. He signed for $225,000.

 

Q: Shawn from Rochester asks:

How close did Larry Suarez come to making the Top 10? Is he ready for full-season leagues yet after a solid showing in the AFL? How high is his ceiling and how well do his pitches rate? Do the Cubs still see him starting down the line or might they move him to the bullpen sooner rather than later?

 

A: Jim Callis: Suarez wasn't really close to the Top 10 and didn't even make the Top 30 after what was kind of a lost season. He had problems with some glass lodged in his arm from an accident before he signed, and only pitched 20 innings. He has a good arm and can be a mid-rotation starter if he develops nicely and keeps his weight under control. He's still seen as a starter.

 

Q: Jeff from NoCal asks:

In your opinion, are Smardizja and Cashner going to end up in the bullpen? Question - Is his stuff All Star quality out of the pen or are they better off letting him grow into a starter in a year or two? It seems to me, Smardzija has the athletic ability and intelligence to transform but the Cubs will have to let him work on things in the minors which they may not have the luxury of doing this year.

 

A: Jim Callis: The Cubs see both as starters, but my gut feel says both will be relievers. Samardzija has a better chance to start for me, as I can buy that he has had little time to develop and can continue to make improvements after making a huge leap next year. Cashner pitched much better in relief last year than he had as a starter in high school or junior college. If they have enough bullpen arms, the Cubs won't be afraid to send The Shark to Triple-A to work on starting

.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2009/267423.html

[davell]

While it's certainly disheartening to see the Cubs at 27, all it takes is a few guys(Jackson, Coleman, Shafer, Carpenter, Antigua, Suarez come to mind immediately for me) to step up this year and it changes things dramatically.

 

I am surprised Jackson is ranked so low, but my guess is he skyrockets if he produces over a full season as he did last year during his short time in the system.

[NCCubFan]

Not in top 31: Donnie Veal.

Not surprising since he isn't a Cub anymore.

[CubinNY]

Anyone:

 

What organization had the best farm system?

 

Does the "class" of the system correlate strongly with draft position? What I mean is if the Rays had the best system could it be because they've always picked so high?

[Guest]

Not in top 31: Donnie Veal.

Not surprising since he isn't a Cub anymore.

 

Sorry...Callis meant if Veal was still in the system, he wouldn't have made the top 31.

[Guest]

Anyone:

 

What organization had the best farm system?

 

Does the "class" of the system correlate strongly with draft position? What I mean is if the Rays had the best system could it be because they've always picked so high?

 

We don't know yet. I think it will likely be Oakland or Texas (both of whom have primary built up their farm via Latin America and trades).

 

While Tampa has rated highly for a few years, some of their best prospects are non first rounders (in the bigs: Crawford and Shields, in the minors: Wade Davis, Jake McGee, Reid Brignac, Jeremy Hellickson, Desmond Jennings, etc.).