Fukudome / Iwamura

[Mephistopheles]

ugh. youre not getting it. fukudomes translated numbers are roughly .290/.390/.490 here give or take. every other hitter approached their translated numbers in time. youre right that pitchers adjusted to him, he just has not had time to adjust to them yet (and it takes more time)

 

and the whole thing about him not being able to hit anything on the outer half is bull.

[OleMissCub]

Meph, do you agree as some have said that Fukudome's biggest problem is his inability to handle a two-seam pitch since they don't throw those much in Japan?

[RedFlash]

there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.

care to elaborate?

 

I think there was one website, or publication that compared Brendan Harris to Albert Pujols due to their minor league numbers.

[gflore34]

Meph, do you agree as some have said that Fukudome's biggest problem is his inability to handle a two-seam pitch since they don't throw those much in Japan?

 

And, if so, will Lou give him enough time to work it out?

Edited October 15, 2008 by gflore34

[Brett]

there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.

care to elaborate?

 

I think there was one website, or publication that compared Brendan Harris to Albert Pujols due to their minor league numbers.

 

Well, and they both play baseball, breathe oxygen, have flesh, and I don't much care fer neither of 'em.

[Warpticon]

Iwamura beats him in vowles, but....

 

What?

[UMFan83]

Great analysis Meph. Wish it didn't take almost an entire page to get it out of you, but great analysis nonetheless.

[erik316wttn]

there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.

care to elaborate?

 

They each have four limbs, have both had major league hits, and are both carbon-based life forms.

[FergieJ31]

there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.

care to elaborate?

 

They each have four limbs, have both had major league hits, and are both carbon-based life forms.

 

The first two are true, but re Pujols I'm not so sure about the third.

 

Great analysis Meph. I have high hopes that Fuku will adapt and improve next year.

[nilodnayr]

In Japan, Iwamura was an all or nothing slugger. He had high power numbers because he was more or less trying to be Matt Stairs. What he ended up doing was homering a lot, striking out a lot and getting a few walks thanks to opposing pitchers being scared. Fukudome couldn't do that in Chunichi. He had to be more of a complete hitter who used the entire field and routinely shot balls to the gaps. He displayed great plate coverage, recognition and discipline, something Iwamura did not. He showed great contact skills, something Iwamura did not. He showed roughly the same amount of power, relatively speaking, but augmented it with a more well-rounded attack.

 

Well a decent amount of what you said there simply isn't true. You draw the conclusion that Iwamura "strikes out a lot" and the Fukudome "displayed great plate coverage, recognition and discipline, something Iwamura did not". Fukudome "showed great contact skills, something Iwamura did not"

 

In Japan Iwamura struck out in 21.8% of his PAs, Fukudome struck out in 19.7% of his PAs.

 

In Japan Iwamura walked in 9.3% of his PAs, Fukudome walked in 12.7% of his PAs

 

Iwamura and Fukudome stuck out at nearly the same clip in Japan. Fukudome definitely had a real advantage in BB rate, but not to the margins you imply.

 

Now, one thing I did not do was adjust for park effect. As Meph mentioned they played in two very different parks, but if anything I would think that playing in the larger park should depress Ks not inflate them, as a pitcher would pitch to contact if he doesn't have to worry about the HR as much. That would draw their very close K numbers even closer.

 

BTW, their K and BB rates remain materially unchanged in the US. Both players walk a smidge more often and strike out a smidge less often.

 

And Iwamura's batted ball data indicates that if he has changed himself into a slap hitter then hes terrible at it because he has GB/FB is around one standard deviation off of league average.

Edited October 15, 2008 by nilodnayr

[1908]

In Japan Iwamura struck out in ~22% of his PAs, Fukudome struck out in ~20% of his PAs.

 

In Japan Iwamura walked in ~9% of his PAs, Fukudome walked in ~12.5% of his PAs

Are you looking at their career numbers? Over their last three seasons in Japan, Iwamura struck out in ~24% of his PAs and walked in ~11%, and Fukudome struck out in ~19% of his PAs and walked in ~15%.

[KingCubsFan]

there are a lot of things in common between albert pujols and brendan harris too.

care to elaborate?

 

I think there was one website, or publication that compared Brendan Harris to Albert Pujols due to their minor league numbers.

It was the Northside Baseball Bible, also known as Baseball Prospectus

[Mephistopheles]

um iwamura struck out 18% more than fukudome. fukudome walked 40% more than iwamura. under no definition is that similar or close. 3 percent may seem close but it really isn't.

[nilodnayr]

In Japan Iwamura struck out in ~22% of his PAs, Fukudome struck out in ~20% of his PAs.

 

In Japan Iwamura walked in ~9% of his PAs, Fukudome walked in ~12.5% of his PAs

Are you looking at their career numbers? Over their last three seasons in Japan, Iwamura struck out in ~24% of his PAs and walked in ~11%, and Fukudome struck out in ~19% of his PAs and walked in ~15%.

 

I quoted career numbers for 2 reasons.

 

1) Iwamura had an extreme outlier year in his second to last season in Japan, where he struck out in ~28.3% of PAs. Every year other than that he was right around 20%.

 

2) Fukudome had an extreme outlier year in his last season in Japan, where he walked in 19.8% of his PAs. 5 of his 7 previous years he was around 12% (with the 1 other year dropping below 10% and 1 above 15%).

 

I'm normally not a fan of career numbers because players obviously evolve and change. But because both players had some huge outlier peripherals in years towards the end of their Japan careers, using the last 2 years or 3 years creates a smaller sample size and vastly skews their stats.

Edited October 15, 2008 by nilodnayr

[nilodnayr]

um iwamura struck out 18% more than fukudome. fukudome walked 40% more than iwamura. under no definition is that similar or close. 3 percent may seem close but it really isn't.

 

Dividing percentages? Seriously? No offense, but thats one of the most [expletive] things to do in math.

 

Face it, some of your claims were wrong.

[1908]

Iwamura had an extreme outlier year in his second to last season in Japan, where he struck out in ~28.5% of PAs. Every year other than that he was right around 20%.

The year after that outlier year he struck out in 24% of his at bats. So in his last three seasons in Japan -- the three years that his power jumped significantly -- Iwamura stuck out around 20% of the time in one of the seasons.

 

2) Fukudome had an extreme outlier year in his last season in Japan, where he walked in ~20% of his PAs. 5 of his 6 previous years he was around 13% (with the 1 other year dropping below 10%).

In his final three years in Japan, Kosuke walked 15%, 13% and 20% of the time. I think his patience at the plate was improving toward the end of his career.

 

I'm not a fan of career numbers for the same reasons you are normally, and I don't think the 3-year data is as skewed as you paint it to be.

[Post Count Padder]

I thought of this comparison but wasn't sure if it's a good one.

[nilodnayr]

Iwamura had an extreme outlier year in his second to last season in Japan, where he struck out in ~28.5% of PAs. Every year other than that he was right around 20%.

The year after that outlier year he struck out in 24% of his at bats. So in his last three seasons in Japan -- the three years that his power jumped significantly -- Iwamura stuck out around 20% of the time in one of the seasons.

 

2) Fukudome had an extreme outlier year in his last season in Japan, where he walked in ~20% of his PAs. 5 of his 6 previous years he was around 13% (with the 1 other year dropping below 10%).

In his final three years in Japan, Kosuke walked 15%, 13% and 20% of the time. I think his patience at the plate was improving toward the end of his career.

 

I'm not a fan of career numbers for the same reasons you are normally, and I don't think the 3-year data is as skewed as you paint it to be.

 

If you drew a line of best fit, yes you might see a SLIGHT upward movement, but less than you think. Using BB/PA, here are his numbers from most recent Japan season onward.

 

 

19.8%

13.1%

15.2%

11.9%

12.6%

9.2%

12.7%

12.2%

9.5%

 

One really important thing to note is that his 20.4% season (as I know you know) came only over 269 ABs because of his elbow injury, his shortest year. What you see (other than his rookie campaign) are 5 years hovering around 12-13%, one full season a decent clip below and one season a decent clip above and a half season quite a decent clip above. I'm pretty comfortable pegging his true talent at a BB/PA rate somewhere around 13-14%.

Edited October 15, 2008 by nilodnayr

[Abe Frohman]

I have a lot in common with Ted Williams: both love hitting, two arms, one head....... wait.....

[nilodnayr]

Iwamura had an extreme outlier year in his second to last season in Japan, where he struck out in ~28.5% of PAs. Every year other than that he was right around 20%.

The year after that outlier year he struck out in 24% of his at bats. So in his last three seasons in Japan -- the three years that his power jumped significantly -- Iwamura stuck out around 20% of the time in one of the seasons.

 

Sorry, didnt address this in my last post. I think the issue is that I'm looking at per PA (rough PA), whereas you are looking at per AB, so thats why our numbers aren't jiving.

 

Here are Iwamura's K/PA rates from most recent year in Japan onward.

 

20.6%

23.6%

28.3%

21.3%

19.8%

19.7%

21.1%

16.8%

 

He he constantly struck out in 20-23% of PAs except for his rookie year and the one outlier. I'm comfortable pegging that as his true talent.

Edited October 15, 2008 by nilodnayr

[1908]

Using rough BB/PA (where PA is definied as AB+BB), here are his numbers from most recent Japan season onward.

 

20.4%

13.3%

12.1%

12.9%

9.4%

13.0%

12.5%

9.8%

12.1% in 2005? Kosuke walked 93 times in 612 PAs that year, a little over 15%. Where are you getting your numbers?

 

Mine are from http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

[1908]

Sorry, didnt address this in my last post. I think the issue is that I'm looking at per PA (rough PA), whereas you are looking at per AB, so thats why our numbers aren't jiving.

Um, no, I'm not.

 

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=993

 

146 Ks for Iwamura in 618 PAs in 2005. That's 23.6%, right?

[nilodnayr]

12.1% in 2005? Kosuke walked 93 times in 612 PAs that year, a little over 15%. Where are you getting your numbers?

 

Mine are from http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

Well thats poop, I was using thebaseballcube and didn't notice that for some reason the don't have any 2005 data on Fukudome. So that 12.1% is 2004. I'll update my data using your link.

[nilodnayr]

Sorry, didnt address this in my last post. I think the issue is that I'm looking at per PA (rough PA), whereas you are looking at per AB, so thats why our numbers aren't jiving.

Um, no, I'm not.

 

http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=993

 

146 Ks for Iwamura in 618 PAs in 2005. That's 23.6%, right?

 

Sorry, you said "at bats" in your post, so thats why I assumed you were looking at ABs, not PAs.

[nilodnayr]

12.1% in 2005? Kosuke walked 93 times in 612 at bats that year, a little over 15%. Where are you getting your numbers?

 

Mine are from http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

 

Well thats poop, I was using thebaseballcube and didn't notice that for some reason the don't have any 2005 data on Fukudome. So that 12.1% is 2004. I'll update my data using your link.

 

 

And doesnt look like it has 2005 for Iwamura either.