College Football - Week of 10/18

[Mephistopheles]

just looking at the computer rankings from the last few weeks. expect the BCS Standings to look something like this:

 

1. Texas

2. Alabama

3. Penn State

4. USC

5. Oklahoma State

6. Oklahoma

7. Texas Tech

8. Florida

9. Utah

10. Georgia

 

I'm curious to how much of a separation Penn State is going to have from Bama.

 

itll be closer between ut and bama than psu and bama.

[Mephistopheles]

i should put top 12 down because of auto bids.

 

11. ohio state

12. boise state

 

recall that the rule is only one of the non bcs teams get an auto bid even if two are in the top 12. which is unfortunate. in all probability, 3 or 4 of the top 15 at seasons end will be non-bcs teams (Utah, Boise, TCU and BYU). No matter what a non BCS team will get in this year - even if theyre not top 12. There's no chance that one doesn't end in the top 16. One of BYU, TCU, and Utah will end up there, just by winning their conference championship. Their ranking will be higher than an ACC winner (and probably the big east winner) that is another auto bid as long as theyre top 16.

[Andy]

i should put top 12 down because of auto bids.

 

11. ohio state

12. boise state

 

recall that the rule is only one of the non bcs teams get an auto bid even if two are in the top 12. which is unfortunate. in all probability, 3 or 4 of the top 15 at seasons end will be non-bcs teams (Utah, Boise, TCU and BYU). No matter what a non BCS team will get in this year - even if theyre not top 12. There's no chance that one doesn't end in the top 16. One of BYU, TCU, and Utah will end up there, just by winning their conference championship. Their ranking will be higher than an ACC winner (and probably the big east winner) that is another auto bid as long as theyre top 16.

No love for Ball State? :wink:

 

Sagarin had us rated 5th last week...

[hawkeyecub]

Sagarin Predictor Rankings

 

1. USC

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Penn St

5. Oklahoma

6. TCU

7. Alabama

8. Iowa

9. Missouri

10. Georgia

11. Oklahoma St

12. Ohio St

[Vanilla Ice]

Sagarin Predictor Rankings

 

1. USC

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Penn St

5. Oklahoma

6. TCU

7. Alabama

8. Iowa

9. Missouri

10. Georgia

11. Oklahoma St

12. Ohio St

how the hell is Iowa number 8?

[bukie]

Sagarin Predictor Rankings

 

1. USC

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Penn St

5. Oklahoma

6. TCU

7. Alabama

8. Iowa

9. Missouri

10. Georgia

11. Oklahoma St

12. Ohio St

how the hell is Iowa number 8?

 

Because they've quietly played very well, and have quite a few blowout wins.

[hawkeyecub]

Sagarin Predictor Rankings

 

1. USC

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Penn St

5. Oklahoma

6. TCU

7. Alabama

8. Iowa

9. Missouri

10. Georgia

11. Oklahoma St

12. Ohio St

how the hell is Iowa number 8?

 

Lost 3 games by a combined 9 points. Won every game big.

 

In those 3 losses there were a combined 10 fumbles by them or the opposition. They recovered 0 of those 10. They've been fairly unlucky, went with the wrong QB to start the year and lost due to turnovers and red zone inefficiency in close games against decent teams.

[Guest]

Sagarin Predictor Rankings

 

1. USC

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Penn St

5. Oklahoma

6. TCU

7. Alabama

8. Iowa

9. Missouri

10. Georgia

11. Oklahoma St

12. Ohio St

how the hell is Iowa number 8?

 

Lost 3 games by a combined 9 points. Won every game big.

 

In those 3 losses there were a combined 10 fumbles by them or the opposition. They recovered 0 of those 10. They've been fairly unlucky, went with the wrong QB to start the year and lost due to turnovers and red zone inefficiency in close games against decent teams.

 

They've also played absolutely nobody. They have no business being ahead of a number of the teams that they're ahead of in the predictor rankings.

[hawkeyecub]

Sagarin Predictor Rankings

 

1. USC

2. Florida

3. Texas

4. Penn St

5. Oklahoma

6. TCU

7. Alabama

8. Iowa

9. Missouri

10. Georgia

11. Oklahoma St

12. Ohio St

how the hell is Iowa number 8?

 

Lost 3 games by a combined 9 points. Won every game big.

 

In those 3 losses there were a combined 10 fumbles by them or the opposition. They recovered 0 of those 10. They've been fairly unlucky, went with the wrong QB to start the year and lost due to turnovers and red zone inefficiency in close games against decent teams.

 

They've also played absolutely nobody. They have no business being ahead of a number of the teams that they're ahead of in the predictor rankings.

 

The 3 losses are to #17, 21 and 22 in the Sagarin ratings. Two of those three were on the road.

 

Now you're correct that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile yet. The best win is against #58 Wisconsin. FIU was 82, Indiana 97, Iowa State 103, and Maine 128. We'll see against Illinois, Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota down the stretch. I think they go 3-1 in that span.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Shonn Greene. that's all

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Now you're correct that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile yet. The best win is against #58 Wisconsin. FIU was 82, Indiana 97, Iowa State 103, and Maine 128. We'll see against Illinois, Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota down the stretch. I think they go 3-1 in that span.

 

I can't see them going any better than 2-2. As of now they'd only be favored against Purdue.

[Derwood]

predictor rating is basically margin of victory. it doesn't take into account strength of opponents (I don't think)

[snoodmonger]

Boy I thought we'd get dropped farther than that. I'll be interested to see your prediction for the KU/Tech game, meph. I think we'll win, especially if TT plays the way they have the last two weeks.

 

No need to wait: 52.5% Kansas, 47.5% Texas Tech.

 

seems about right. We're a much tougher team in Lawrence, but with our pass defense, anything goes. Should be a fun game to watch if you hate it when teams don't score.

[hawkeyecub]

 

Now you're correct that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile yet. The best win is against #58 Wisconsin. FIU was 82, Indiana 97, Iowa State 103, and Maine 128. We'll see against Illinois, Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota down the stretch. I think they go 3-1 in that span.

 

I can't see them going any better than 2-2. As of now they'd only be favored against Purdue.

 

Minnesota is not a very good team. The dome is not a difficult place to play. Illinois is on the road but I think overall they're fairly equal teams. Zook is 0-3 against Ferentz despite having more talent in two of the three games. They should beat Purdue at home. Penn State is obviously damn good and they'll be an underdog at home.

Edited October 20, 2008 by hawkeyecub

[Mephistopheles]

predictor rating is basically margin of victory. it doesn't take into account strength of opponents (I don't think)

 

yes it does.

[SouthSideRyan]

 

Now you're correct that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile yet. The best win is against #58 Wisconsin. FIU was 82, Indiana 97, Iowa State 103, and Maine 128. We'll see against Illinois, Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota down the stretch. I think they go 3-1 in that span.

 

I can't see them going any better than 2-2. As of now they'd only be favored against Purdue.

 

Minnesota is not a very good team. The dome is not a difficult place to play. Illinois is on the road but I think overall they're fairly equal teams. Zook is 0-3 against Ferentz despite having more talent in two of the three games. They should beat Purdue at home. Penn State is obviously damn good and they'll be an underdog at home.

 

I'd say Minnesota right now has the better resume. Their only loss is better than any of Iowa's losses. I'd put the teams' best wins as even. (Illinois is probably a little better than Wisky and the game was in Champaign, but Iowa dominated Wisconsin, and Minnesota won a close one) Beyond that, every win is filler.

[Derwood]

predictor rating is basically margin of victory. it doesn't take into account strength of opponents (I don't think)

 

yes it does.

 

then I stand corrected

[hawkeyecub]

 

Now you're correct that they haven't beaten anyone worthwhile yet. The best win is against #58 Wisconsin. FIU was 82, Indiana 97, Iowa State 103, and Maine 128. We'll see against Illinois, Penn State, Purdue and Minnesota down the stretch. I think they go 3-1 in that span.

 

I can't see them going any better than 2-2. As of now they'd only be favored against Purdue.

 

Minnesota is not a very good team. The dome is not a difficult place to play. Illinois is on the road but I think overall they're fairly equal teams. Zook is 0-3 against Ferentz despite having more talent in two of the three games. They should beat Purdue at home. Penn State is obviously damn good and they'll be an underdog at home.

 

I'd say Minnesota right now has the better resume. Their only loss is better than any of Iowa's losses. I'd put the teams' best wins as even. (Illinois is probably a little better than Wisky and the game was in Champaign, but Iowa dominated Wisconsin, and Minnesota won a close one) Beyond that, every win is filler.

 

Their resume may be better, I'm just making a subjective judgment on who I think is better.

 

Minnesota had no business winning that Illinois game. They were in a dogfight the whole way with Indiana at home. They scored with 20 seconds left to beat NIU at home. They had a tight game with Montana State at home.

 

I just don't think they're a very good team. Much improved from last year, but not as good as their record indicates.