Cubs-Dodgers: A look at some numbers

[David]

Didn't they lose like 8 in a row in August (or was it Aug/Sept)?

[bukie]

Ethier was playing before the Manny trade. It's not as if Andruw Jones was walking out there every day.

 

Also, Furcal is just coming off the DL and played 4 games prior to the end of the season, going 2 for 9 with no XBHs.

 

The Dodgers finished the year 14th in the NL in scoring, going 8th in the NL over the last month+.

[CubinNY]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

They were also playing crap teams with bad pitchers.

 

That's true, but they were playing crap teams with bad pitchers in the first half. They play in the NL West. I really doubt the only reason their offense improved was because they all the sudden started playing bad teams, and not because they added 4 solid hitters to their everyday lineup. (3 technically because Furcal only played a week)

Look at their schedule. They played their division rivals down the stretch.

They added one great hitter at the deadline.

 

Overall, they are very mediocre and don't have a good lineup outside of Manny. If he goes into a slump they have a terrible lineup. Their only hope is that the Cubs get impatient and start swinging at junk. That's the only way they're going to win.

 

Down the stretch they did, just as they probably had a long stretch in the first half when they played bad teams. I mean they play in the NL West. Those numbers also include their August schedule, when they faced the folllowing teams:

 

vs. AZ

@ STL

@ SF

vs. PHI (4)

vs. MIL

vs. COL

@ PHI (4)

@ WAS

@ AZ

 

Not an impossible schedule by any means, but its not like their September schedule. The way you are wording your argument is implying that the Dodgers played nothing but easy teams for the last 2 months of the season, while their numbers are bogged down in the first half by playing only hard teams. Certainly its not the case.

 

The day before the Manny trade was made, the Dodgers put together an outfield consisting of Andruw Jones (.505 OPS), Juan Pierre (.655 OPS) and Matt Kemp (.799 OPS). Now its Manny Ramirez (1.031 OPS), Kemp (.799) and Ethier (.885). That's a sizable difference right there. They will also be upgraded offensively by replace Angel Berroa (.614 OPS) with Furcal (.764 career OPS, 1.012 in limited sample this year).

 

They are not better than the Cubs by any stretch, but its pretty clear they are significantly better right now than they were in July.

Well screw it then, the Cubs should just pack it in.

 

They are a MEDIOCRE TEAM with Manny and bad team without him. This is the 84 win Dodgers we are talking about not the 1927 Yankees.

 

This year's Cubs team is head and shoulders better than the Dodgers and should win easily.

[bukie]

Didn't they lose like 8 in a row in August (or was it Aug/Sept)?

 

Yes, at the end of August, also encompassing the last time they played a good team (swept in 4 @Philly). Also included a sweep at Washington.

 

To be fair, they also swept the Phillies in 4 games earlier in August. They're not pathetic, they're better than they were in June, still the worst team in the playoffs.

[UMFan83]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

They were also playing crap teams with bad pitchers.

 

That's true, but they were playing crap teams with bad pitchers in the first half. They play in the NL West. I really doubt the only reason their offense improved was because they all the sudden started playing bad teams, and not because they added 4 solid hitters to their everyday lineup. (3 technically because Furcal only played a week)

Look at their schedule. They played their division rivals down the stretch.

They added one great hitter at the deadline.

 

Overall, they are very mediocre and don't have a good lineup outside of Manny. If he goes into a slump they have a terrible lineup. Their only hope is that the Cubs get impatient and start swinging at junk. That's the only way they're going to win.

 

Down the stretch they did, just as they probably had a long stretch in the first half when they played bad teams. I mean they play in the NL West. Those numbers also include their August schedule, when they faced the folllowing teams:

 

vs. AZ

@ STL

@ SF

vs. PHI (4)

vs. MIL

vs. COL

@ PHI (4)

@ WAS

@ AZ

 

Not an impossible schedule by any means, but its not like their September schedule. The way you are wording your argument is implying that the Dodgers played nothing but easy teams for the last 2 months of the season, while their numbers are bogged down in the first half by playing only hard teams. Certainly its not the case.

 

The day before the Manny trade was made, the Dodgers put together an outfield consisting of Andruw Jones (.505 OPS), Juan Pierre (.655 OPS) and Matt Kemp (.799 OPS). Now its Manny Ramirez (1.031 OPS), Kemp (.799) and Ethier (.885). That's a sizable difference right there. They will also be upgraded offensively by replace Angel Berroa (.614 OPS) with Furcal (.764 career OPS, 1.012 in limited sample this year).

 

They are not better than the Cubs by any stretch, but its pretty clear they are significantly better right now than they were in July.

Well screw it then, the Cubs should just pack it in.

 

They are a MEDIOCRE TEAM with Manny and bad team without him. This is the 84 win Dodgers we are talking about not the 1927 Yankees.

 

This year's Cubs team is head and shoulders better than the Dodgers and should win easily.

 

Dude calm down. No one is saying the Cubs are favored to lose. All we're (or at least I'm) saying is that the Dodgers are better right now than they were in June. I think any rational person would agree. Where we might differ of course is the degree of improvement they have had.

[Guest]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

They were also playing crap teams with bad pitchers.

 

That's true, but they were playing crap teams with bad pitchers in the first half. They play in the NL West. I really doubt the only reason their offense improved was because they all the sudden started playing bad teams, and not because they added 4 solid hitters to their everyday lineup. (3 technically because Furcal only played a week)

Look at their schedule. They played their division rivals down the stretch.

They added one great hitter at the deadline.

 

Overall, they are very mediocre and don't have a good lineup outside of Manny. If he goes into a slump they have a terrible lineup. Their only hope is that the Cubs get impatient and start swinging at junk. That's the only way they're going to win.

 

Down the stretch they did, just as they probably had a long stretch in the first half when they played bad teams. I mean they play in the NL West. Those numbers also include their August schedule, when they faced the folllowing teams:

 

vs. AZ

@ STL

@ SF

vs. PHI (4)

vs. MIL

vs. COL

@ PHI (4)

@ WAS

@ AZ

 

Not an impossible schedule by any means, but its not like their September schedule. The way you are wording your argument is implying that the Dodgers played nothing but easy teams for the last 2 months of the season, while their numbers are bogged down in the first half by playing only hard teams. Certainly its not the case.

 

The day before the Manny trade was made, the Dodgers put together an outfield consisting of Andruw Jones (.505 OPS), Juan Pierre (.655 OPS) and Matt Kemp (.799 OPS). Now its Manny Ramirez (1.031 OPS), Kemp (.799) and Ethier (.885). That's a sizable difference right there. They will also be upgraded offensively by replace Angel Berroa (.614 OPS) with Furcal (.764 career OPS, 1.012 in limited sample this year).

 

They are not better than the Cubs by any stretch, but its pretty clear they are significantly better right now than they were in July.

 

Ethier was getting more starts than Pierre even before the Manny trade - granted he wasn't getting 100% of the playing time like he is now (a .977 second half OPS will do that).

[cubsfan26]

The Dodgers went into September 67-70, and went on to go 17-8 in September to finsh 84-78. This is a huge reason why it happen, and probably the reason why their offensive numbers improved so much with Manny.

 

 

Pitchers starting in games they won in

 

Padres-Cha Seung Baek

Padres-Wade LeBlanc-three times

Padres-Chris Young

Diamondbacks-Dan Haren

Diamondbacks-Brandon Webb

Diamondbakcs-Max Scherezer

Padres-Shawn Estes- twice

Rockies-Jeff Francis

Rockies-Jorge De La Rosa

Pirates-Ross Ohlendorff

Pirates-Jeff Karstens

Pirates-Paul Maholm- beat Pirates pen

Giants-Brad Hennessey- beat Giants pen

Giants-Matt Cain(won 2-1)

 

 

Pitchers starting in games they lost in

 

Padres-Cha Seung Baek

Rockies-Aaron Cook- Rockies pen got win

Pirates-Zach Duke- Pirates pen got the win

Giants-Barry Zito

Padres-Jake Peavy

Giants-Matt Cain- Giants pen got the win

Giants-Brad Hennessey- Giants pen got the win

Giants-Tim Lincecum

 

 

So other then beating Haren and Webb, the Dodgers have beat up on crap pitching or struggling pitchers. But other then Haren/Webb they still haven't hit good pitching very well recently. So that could be a good sign with Dempster, Zambrano, Harden and Lilly going.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cubs all-time record in playoff games:

 

3-11 in postseason series

25-44 in playoff games

 

Lost six straight playoff games

 

Lost seven straight championship-deciding games (pennant or WS).

 

Coin-flip my pasty white bum.

[Ender]

Bullpens heavily dominate the playoffs so if anything the ERA thing favors the dodgers.

 

I picked the Dodgers to go to the World Series, this is a much better team than the record suggests now that Furcal is back, Manny is in the lineup, Andruw and Pierre aren't playing much and the bullpen is closer to healthy. Whichever team wins this series goes to the WS. I don't think the Brewers or Phillies can compete with either of them without getting lucky.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Check the home/road splits and tell me how awesome Dodger pitching is.

[TMan92]

D-Lee is my pick for this game. Historically has hit Lowe pretty well but not a lot of luck in two meetings this year.

[Ender]

Check the home/road splits and tell me how awesome Dodger pitching is.

 

In a series where 3 games are on the road and 2 are at home does this really matter all that much? It takes one semi-lucky game by the pitchers to completely offset any home field advantage.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Check the home/road splits and tell me how awesome Dodger pitching is.

 

In a series where 3 games are on the road and 2 are at home does this really matter all that much? It takes one semi-lucky game by the pitchers to completely offset any home field advantage.

 

It matters to the individual pitchers.

 

Lowe will not be pitching in Dodger Stadium, and outside Dodger Stadium he's a full two runs worse per 9 innings. That's a significant difference.

[Cubs 32]

Dodgers first two starters.

 

Derek Lowe

Home: 17 GS, 117.1 IP, 2.30 ERA, 30 R, .206 BAA, .242 OBP, .300 SLG

Away: 17 GS, 93.2 IP, 4.42 ERA, 54 R, .292 BAA, .334 OBP, .413 SLG

 

Chad Billingsley

Home: 16 GS (17 G), 100.2 IP, 2.95 ERA, 35 R, .236 BAA, .303 OBP, .337 SLG

Away: 16 GS (18 G), 100 IP, 3.33 ERA, 41 R, .260 BAA, .345 OBP, .388 SLG

[SouthSideRyan]

Check the home/road splits and tell me how awesome Dodger pitching is.

 

In a series where 3 games are on the road and 2 are at home does this really matter all that much? It takes one semi-lucky game by the pitchers to completely offset any home field advantage.

 

It also takes one semi-lucky game by a Cubs pitcher to give them a huge home field advantage.

[UMFan83]

Check the home/road splits and tell me how awesome Dodger pitching is.

 

In a series where 3 games are on the road and 2 are at home does this really matter all that much? It takes one semi-lucky game by the pitchers to completely offset any home field advantage.

 

So now you are assuming one of the Dodgers pitchers is going to throw a semi-lucky game, and that's the reason the Dodgers will win the series?

 

Also, do you think that the Dodgers pitchers were selected by the team because they can somehow pitch better at Dodger Stadium while their opponents can't? Basically, do you think the Cubs pitchers won't also benefit by pitching in that stadium?

[Keener98]

I keep hearing the media say that this LA offense has changed so much with the additions of Manny and Casey Blake. Casey Blake? Are you serious? The guy has had 2 good months(June-July), other than that he has been flat out horrible. For the months of August and Sept hes put up steller numbers like .250 .303 .451 and he followed that up with an even more pathetic Sept of .220 .297 .415. Outside of June and July he hasnt managed to surpass .315 in OBP for a month. The guy just isnt very good, and people need to stop acting like hes made a difference. Its all Manny all the time. Dont let Manny beat you, and the Dodgers wont beat you.

[hardcorecubfan]

I just hope we get past the mental block with Lowe, despite his record was the best choice against us

[twothousandfive]

Dont let Manny beat you, and the Dodgers wont beat you.

 

Furcal is a wild card, but if they don't walk him, I'm not sure he's going to hit much. Martin got on base in Sep at an unreal rate, and Ramirez and Ethier thumped the ball for the month of September. Get past those four, and nothing looks all that worrisome. But if the Cubs starters aren't sharp, the odds of Furcal and/or Martin being on base for the thunder is scary.

 

Marshall and Cotts can play key roles late in containing Ethier, so I think it is the starters ability to get by the first four that will be big.

 

Tonight against Lowe, if they haven't hardened the infield and cut the grass, it will be very tough going. Soriano, Soto and Ramirez have been pretty effective against groundball pitchers. I don't have high hopes for Theriot or Lee tonight.

[Keener98]

Hahaha Pedro Gomez was just reporting from Wrigley talking about how Casey Blake is a "professional hitter". Hahaha

[Butterscup1679666578]

Hahaha Pedro Gomez was just reporting from Wrigley talking about how Casey Blake is a "professional hitter". Hahaha

 

He's just, what we call in the business, a baseball player.