Players under/overperforming

[XZero771679666304]

One of the things that has surprised me this year is how the Cubs are winning so much more despite having so many key players performing below expectation.

 

Sure, you have guys like Fontenot and DeRosa having career years, but they are really role players. Theriot is having a career year, but I would stop short of saying it has made a huge impact (his defense and god-awful baserunning have diminished his contributions, albeit slightly). Soto has been a pleasant surprise, though outside of April he hasn't been what you would call spectacular. Reed has been surprisingly good, but I am going to stop short of calling his performance totally unexpected, since he is in a platoon and posted an .869 OPS only 2 years ago, and had back problems last year.

 

But we've got Lee having easily his worst full season since joining the team, Ramirez with his lowest OPS in 5 years, Soriano with his lowest OPS in 3 years (along with missing the most games he has ever missed), Fukudome dropping off the face of the earth and one of our best bullpen guys (Howry) has been abysmal.

 

So pretty much all of the Cubs big name offensive guys have either been injured or produced at lower level than expected.

 

The pitching has been great overall, and while it would be easy to say Demptser's year has been a huge boost, it has to be mitigated somewhat by the fact that they guy who were were counting on to be our #3 starter (effectively our #2) completely imploded and contributed next to nothing. Lilly has fallen off a bit from last year as well.

 

So I guess the moral here is that it has been a total team effort. DeRosa, Fontenot, Johnson and Soto have all had hot stretches that helped mask the fact that our big guys have not been so big this season.

 

But if Lee and Soriano wake up in September like they did last year, the Cubs should have this thing all but wrapped up by the middle of the month.

[rynefan]

Does Hill count? If so, you know what pile I put him in.

[XZero771679666304]

Does Hill count? If so, you know what pile I put him in.

 

He has been a total non-factor, which is the epitome of underperformance, if you ask me.

[Keener98]

Hills underperformance has been negated by Demps overperformance. Basically Demp is doing exactly what alot of us expected from Hill

[Vanilla Ice]

Hills underperformance has been negated by Demps overperformance. Basically Demp is doing exactly what alot of us expected from Hill

and hill did what we thought Dempster would.

 

out of the rotation by June

[XZero771679666304]

Hills underperformance has been negated by Demps overperformance. Basically Demp is doing exactly what alot of us expected from Hill

 

Which is about what I was trying to say. Some may look at Demp's performance as a big plus, but the net result is about the same when compared to overall expectation.

[rynefan]

I know. It's just that in the offseason, I had a feeling the Cubs were going to be good this year, but my daydreaming of the upcoming season seemed to always include Hill as a big part of that. The fact that he didn't pan out this year is one thing, the fact that he bottomed out is another. Just a total reversal of what I had expected.

 

As far as Demp... I think in my head it's almost like it's two separate guys. I was so down on him as a reliever after last year, I admit to making a lot of (negative) comments to friends about putting him in as a starter. I am happy to be wrong, however.

 

Fukudome has been a bit of a disappointment, but he's new to the league, so I can say I am totally surprised. It seems worse at this point since he had come out of the gate like gangbusters.

 

How can you not think DeRosa, Soto and Theriot haven't overperformed? Their numbers prove it.

 

It's just nice to have a year when I can honestly say I could make a longer list of overperformers than underperformers.

[UMFan83]

Soriano = At

Theriot = Above

Lee = Below

Ramirez = Below

Edmonds = Above

DeRosa = Above

Soto = Above

Fukudome = Below

 

Ward = Below

Fontenot = Above

Cedeno = At

Blanco = At

Johnson = Above

 

Zambrano = At

Dempster = Above

Harden = Above

Lilly = At

Marquis = At

 

Wood = Above

Marmol = At

Howry = Below

Marshall = Above (considering role compared to previous years)

Gaudin = Above

Cotts = Above

Samardzija = Above

 

Pie = Below

Murton = Below

EPatt = At

Hoffpauir = Above

 

Hill = Below

Gallagher = At

Wuertz = At

Hart = Below

Eyre = At

Ascanio = At

Fox = At

Pignatiello = At

[XZero771679666304]

How can you not think DeRosa, Soto and Theriot haven't overperformed? Their numbers prove it.

 

It's just nice to have a year when I can honestly say I could make a longer list of overperformers than underperformers.

 

I never said those guys haven't overperformed, because they certainly have. But none of them have been impact guys, a la Ryan Ludwick. And while Theriot has been far better than expectation, his poor defense, poor base running (getting caught 40% of the time, multiple times at 3rd) and lack of power (he rarely puts himself in scoring position, and has only scored 68 runs in spite of being on base 210 times) takes away from that somewhat.

 

And though some might not realize it, Soto wasn't all that great in May, June or July.

 

Can you honestly say there have been more overperformers than underperformers? Let's see:

 

 

Over:

 

Theriot

Soto

DeRosa

Dempster

Edmonds

Wood (questionable because he missed a stretch, and has always dominated)

Fontenot

 

 

Under:

 

Lee (nearly .100 below last year's OPS)

Ramirez (his OPS is all right, but his SLG is well down, his lowest in 5 years)

Soriano (b/c of injuries)

Ward

Howry

Hill

Fukudome

Lilly (slightly)

 

And the names on the under list are a lot bigger than on the over list.

[CubColtPacer]

Soriano = At

Theriot = Above

Lee = Below

Ramirez = Below (At)

Edmonds = Above

DeRosa = Above

Soto = Above

Fukudome = Below

 

Ward = Below

Fontenot = Above

Cedeno = At

Blanco = At (Above)

Johnson = Above

 

Zambrano = At (Above)

Dempster = Above

Harden = Above

Lilly = At

Marquis = At

 

Wood = Above

Marmol = At

Howry = Below

Marshall = Above (considering role compared to previous years)

Gaudin = Above

Cotts = Above

Samardzija = Above

 

Pie = Below

Murton = Below

EPatt = At

Hoffpauir = Above

 

Hill = Below

Gallagher = At

Wuertz = At

Hart = Below

Eyre = At

Ascanio = At

Fox = At

Pignatiello = At

 

I bolded the ones and changed the ones that I felt were wrong.

Edited August 24, 2008 by CubColtPacer

[Keener98]

I think what we have gotten so far out of Soto is what we will get from him in the future if he stays healthy. But thats my opinion

[SoonerCubFan]

How can you not think DeRosa, Soto and Theriot haven't overperformed? Their numbers prove it.

 

I agree with most assessments in this thread, except those of Soto overperforming - at least offensively. His numbers for the year are right at his prior line (albeit with limited history) - .286/.371/.500 vs. .292/.371/.504 (year and career OPS+ of 124), and given his 2007 performance in AAA and MLB along with his hot start, I was actually hoping for at least this much if not more. The one area where I have been pleasantly impressed with him is with the leadership.

[XZero771679666304]

Soriano = At

Theriot = Above

Lee = Below

Ramirez = Below

Edmonds = Above

DeRosa = Above

Soto = Above

Fukudome = Below

 

Ward = Below

Fontenot = Above

Cedeno = At

Blanco = At

Johnson = Above

 

Zambrano = At

Dempster = Above

Harden = Above

Lilly = At

Marquis = At

 

Wood = Above

Marmol = At

Howry = Below

Marshall = Above (considering role compared to previous years)

Gaudin = Above

Cotts = Above

Samardzija = Above

 

Pie = Below

Murton = Below

EPatt = At

Hoffpauir = Above

 

Hill = Below

Gallagher = At

Wuertz = At

Hart = Below

Eyre = At

Ascanio = At

Fox = At

Pignatiello = At

 

Wuertz is at expectation? How? He was supposed to be a decent part of our pen.

 

And I didn't include Harden/Gaudin, but Gaudin would have to be below, not above (if you include yesterday's outing), And Harden about at expectation (the guy has had an ERA in the low 2's in previous years, and moved to the NL. He has also faced some poor offenses since coming over).

 

I also think the sample size on Samardzija is too small to include him.

 

And while Soriano's numbers have been there, he did miss 2 months of the season, and it hurt the team.

[XZero771679666304]

Soriano = At

Ramirez = Below (At)

 

I bolded the ones and changed the ones that I felt were wrong.

 

On the surface it may seem that way, but he has hit for a lot less power. I like the walks, though. Additionally, he has been far more inconsistent. His home/road splits have been more unbalanced than ever, and he posted sub-.800 OPS' in June and July, two of his best months historically.

 

His OPS is his lowest in years, but his OPS+ is right on par with recent years. I think the relative inconsistency is what is bothering me. You expect that from Soriano, but not so much from Aramis.

[CubColtPacer]

How can you not think DeRosa, Soto and Theriot haven't overperformed? Their numbers prove it.

 

It's just nice to have a year when I can honestly say I could make a longer list of overperformers than underperformers.

 

I never said those guys haven't overperformed, because they certainly have. But none of them have been impact guys, a la Ryan Ludwick. And while Theriot has been far better than expectation, his poor defense, poor base running (getting caught 40% of the time, multiple times at 3rd) and lack of power (he rarely puts himself in scoring position, and has only scored 68 runs in spite of being on base 210 times) takes away from that somewhat.

 

And though some might not realize it, Soto wasn't all that great in May, June or July.

 

Can you honestly say there have been more overperformers than underperformers? Let's see:

 

 

Over:

 

Theriot

Soto

DeRosa

Dempster

Edmonds

Wood (questionable because he missed a stretch, and has always dominated)

Fontenot

 

 

Under:

 

Lee (nearly .100 below last year's OPS)

Ramirez (his OPS is all right, but his SLG is well down, his lowest in 5 years)

Soriano (b/c of injuries)

Ward

Howry

Hill

Fukudome

Lilly (slightly)

 

And the names on the under list are a lot bigger than on the over list.

 

Let's look at this list.

 

Theriot. 90 points above the OPS of last year, and 68 of that has been in OBP.

Soto-probably about 50 points ahead of projections, mostly in SLG

DeRosa-62 points above OPS of last year, mostly in SLG

Dempster-about 2 points of ERA better than projection

Edmonds-Close to 200 points of OPS better than Cubs projected center field production

Wood-hard to say. Probably not much of an upgrade except for about a month extra of time.

Fontenot-around 100 points better than projection

 

Total of starting lineup=400 points of OPS better than expected

Total of bench players=100 points better than expected

Total starters=2 points of ERA better than expected

That doesn't even reference Zambrano, whose ERA is the best it's been in 3 years and his bat is over 200 points of OPS better than his next best year. He's definitely overperformed. Also Blanco is having the best year of his entire career off the bench at age 38. That's got to factor in somewhere.

 

Now let's look at the other list

Lee-85 points worse in OPS than last year, split between OBP and SLG

Ramirez-10-12 points worse in OPS, but that's offset by the fact that his OBP is 19 points better than it's ever been. This is not a downgrade.

Soriano-ok, loss of 150 at-bats or so

Ward-196 points worse of OPS than last year

Howry-2.15 points of ERA worse

Hill-.5 point worse in ERA, loss of time (filled with trade of Harden)

Fukudome-around 75 points worse than standard projection

Lilly-Expected slight regression. Not really behind projection.

 

Total of starting lineup= 170 points worse than projection (counting Ramirez, which is questionable). Loss of 150 at-bats

Total of starting pitching=.5 ERA, loss of starter

Total bench=196 points worse

total bullpen=2.15 points worse (made up for by minor league callups and trades filling important bullpen positions)

 

Now you can see why this looks worse than it is. The players who are overperforming are doing so by a great deal larger than the players who are underperforming. Their starting lineup is overperforming more than it's underperforming. There was almost no chance that the Cubs top 2 starters would have a 2.85 and 3.29 ERA, but they do. Dempster has been much better than Hill was projected to be, and Hill didn't flame out before he got removed like Dempster was projected to do. Add in the trade, and you see why they have done so well.

[CubColtPacer]

Soriano = At

Ramirez = Below (At)

 

I bolded the ones and changed the ones that I felt were wrong.

 

On the surface it may seem that way, but he has hit for a lot less power. I like the walks, though. Additionally, he has been far more inconsistent. His home/road splits have been more unbalanced than ever, and he posted sub-.800 OPS' in June and July, two of his best months historically.

 

His OPS is his lowest in years, but his OPS+ is right on par with recent years. I think the relative inconsistency is what is bothering me. You expect that from Soriano, but not so much from Aramis.

 

He's become a different type of player, yes. But not one that is any less productive. Just not quite as much of a typical #4 hitter. But that has been just fine, because he has set the table for the people behind him. And besides, we're talking about a 31 point drop in SLG from last year, and that has only been caused by a lower batting average and a couple of triples. It's hardly a steep enough drop to say that he's been underperfomring, especially when his OBP is up 19 points from last year.

 

As for consistency, this is hardly the first year that he's had trouble in certain months. In 2006, he had 3 straight months of problems. In 2005, he had 2 bad months out of 5. I don't see how this is not expected from Aramis to have some really hot months and some colder months, just because he was relatively consistent for 1 year.

[XZero771679666304]

 

He's become a different type of player, yes. But not one that is any less productive. Just not quite as much of a typical #4 hitter. But that has been just fine, because he has set the table for the people behind him. And besides, we're talking about a 31 point drop in SLG from last year, and that has only been caused by a lower batting average and a couple of triples. It's hardly a steep enough drop to say that he's been underperfomring, especially when his OBP is up 19 points from last year.

 

As for consistency, this is hardly the first year that he's had trouble in certain months. In 2006, he had 3 straight months of problems. In 2005, he had 2 bad months out of 5. I don't see how this is not expected from Aramis to have some really hot months and some colder months, just because he was relatively consistent for 1 year.

 

Except that it wasn't just one year. His June and July were, OPS-wise, two of his worst 3 from 2004 on. And his home/road splits have never been this unbalanced.

 

He has a 1.061 at home and a .720 on the road.

 

His OPS has come up a bit, but it is still lower than he has posted since 2003. IMO, the OBP gains have been a little more than offset by the SLG loss. I like that he's setting the table, but can we count on guys like Edmonds and DeRosa to keep clearing it?

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't want Ramirez to become a hacking machine, but I like .350/.560 Ramirez a lot more than .383/.500. It's not like his OBP was poor before this season. Nor is ARam 35 years old, necessitating a change in approach.

 

It's entirely possible that Aramis will have a big September (he has been very good in August) and make this discussion moot. But while I appreciate the increased selectivity (God knows we've been lacking it as team in recent years), I think that unless it comes with comparable power numbers, I don't think it is what is need most from him, particularly with Derrek's power AWOL. It's easy to see the Cubs leading the league in runs and ignore it, but Aramis has not been as good as he could have been so far (nor has he been bad).

 

I do think Derrek's down year makes Ramirez's lack of power a bit more apparent.

[Shilzzz]

Brian Roberts is WAY underperforming for the cubs this year.

[sneakypower]

who thought Rich Hill would have a 2.75 ERA and be virtually assured a top 5 Cy Young finish by this point in the season?

[Soul]

who thought Rich Hill would have a 2.75 ERA and be virtually assured a top 5 Cy Young finish by this point in the season?

 

No, but I definitely thought he would step up and be a solid middle-rotational starter for us this year. I had no clue he would wind up where he did this season.

[jersey cubs fan]

who thought Rich Hill would have a 2.75 ERA and be virtually assured a top 5 Cy Young finish by this point in the season?

 

I wouldn't have predicted quite that good, but he was well on his way to doing something similar. And I expected Dempster to provide a heck of a lot more than Hill has provided. That is why, on a net basis, the upside/downside surprises are offset, and in actuality, the two combine for a little less than expected.