Dunn to the Dbacks

[shnsajax]

The deal does look better for the Reds if Owings is in it.

 

And here is another link...

 

Link.

 

If I am Micah playing for Dusty I ask to give up pitching.

[RedFlash]

Rotoworld reports that hard hitting but poor pitching pitcher Micah Owings will be one of the PTBNL sent to DBR.

 

All I know was the fact that Owings future would not be on the mound. I was never impressed with Owings as a pitcher, even at GT and Tulane. I felt Owings future was likely at 1st base or LF.

[Cynosure]

Reds are going to be mighty scare in a few years if they do get Owings and can move Harang this offseason... they might get back to the BIG RED MACHINE.

[Guest]

The Cincinnati Enquirer reports that Adam Dunn is looking for a "$100 to $120 million contract."

 

Bronson Arroyo says that fact was no secret in the Cincinnati clubhouse. Dunn is 28 years old with an career OPS of .900, which is almost exactly the case with free agent-to-be Mark Teixeira, with Teixeira posting a better batting average. Both should manage $100 million deals in the world of ever-expanding baseball salaries.

Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

 

I'd be surprised if Dunn gets a $100M contract. I don't see him getting more than a five-year deal which would mean he would need to get $20M per year to reach that amount. Even if he gets a six-year deal he would still need to average $16+M per year and I'm not so sure he gets that. Who knows, though.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Lost in all this discussion is that, even from a sabermetric standpoint, strikeouts are a little worse than contact outs. Last I recall, the going number was roughly 1/20th of a run per out.

 

When you are striking out at the rate Dunn does, that adds up to something not earth-shattering, but not trivial either.

[badnews]

Adam Dunn has to get more money than Carlos Lee did, I'm pretty sure.

 

I'm just curious, how come when it comes to the strikeout question, people always dump on Dunn so much more often than Ryan Howard?

 

Also, of course, how the hell did the Dodgers not block this?

[Jehrico]

Adam Dunn has to get more money than Carlos Lee did, I'm pretty sure.

 

I'm just curious, how come when it comes to the strikeout question, people always dump on Dunn so much more often than Ryan Howard?

 

Also, of course, how the hell did the Dodgers not block this?

That's easy. Ned Colletti is an imbecile.

[SouthSideRyan]

Reds are going to be mighty scare in a few years if they do get Owings and can move Harang this offseason... they might get back to the BIG RED MACHINE.

 

Is this officially the first proclamation of this for 2009? This would make it 8 years running that everyone needs to watch out for the up and coming Reds.

[Jehrico]

Reds are going to be mighty scare in a few years if they do get Owings and can move Harang this offseason... they might get back to the BIG RED MACHINE.

 

Is this officially the first proclamation of this for 2009? This would make it 8 years running that everyone needs to watch out for the up and coming Reds.

I'm going to say 2011. They won't be that great in 2009 or 2010 while Dusty is at the helm. If they fire Dusty, then I'd bump that prediction up a year. I really think he'll prevent this team from reaching their potential. As was typical of his time here and in SF, Dusty's teams are not fundamentally sound teams, and Cincy has proven to be no exception. The man just doesn't put emphasis on the fundamentals of baseball, he puts all of his focus into massaging personalities.

[SouthSideRyan]

The deal does look better for the Reds if Owings is in it.

 

And here is another link...

 

Link.

 

Better, but I'd still take the draft picks. Really all depends on if Owings was hurt, which is a double edged sword. It would explain him sucking, but then hes hurt.

 

Not when you figure in the other 2 prospects, alogn with the fact that those compensation picks aren't as likely to have a career as good as Owings will, plus the bonuses that have to be paid to the comp picks.

[rchap24]

Rotoworld reports that hard hitting but poor pitching pitcher Micah Owings will be one of the PTBNL sent to DBR.

 

All I know was the fact that Owings future would not be on the mound. I was never impressed with Owings as a pitcher, even at GT and Tulane. I felt Owings future was likely at 1st base or LF.

 

You really think that Micha could be a position player?

[CuseCubFan69]

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

 

In a single AB, if the choices are K or long fly ball, with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs, obviously you pick the latter. But that's not the way it works. Over the course of the season, he's likely to put up roughly the same numbers in those situations as he does all the other times.

 

My point is - if you have a choice of Dunn taking the same approach in those situations as he does all the other PAs during the season or completely changing his approach, I'd pick the former. I want the guy with an OBP-heavy .900+ OPS to have the same approach regardless of the situation. Does that mean sometimes he'll K in a situation where a fly out would be better? Sure. But he's also more likely to hit a HR or a double in those situations than a weak grounder back to the pitcher b/c he doesn't swing just to make contact.

 

How many good 3-4-5 hitters hit weak grounders to the Pitcher? I agree that Dunn is very likely to walk/homer or K half the time he's up but you really wouldn't mind watching him take strike 3 time and time again because he won't change his approach? Is there a stat that shows how productive he really is? I can understand why a lot of people think he's an impact hitter and I agree he is. But, there is a lot of negative regarding his numbers as well and I'm curious on how much his approach really helps his team. I love his OBP and power numbers and I'd love to see a good statistical breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup.

 

I was in a terribly long meeting, so it looks like this has been somewhat addressed, but I just want to clarify your point: you really just wanted to know his OBP/SLG breakdown with a runner on 3rd? B/c that was a very long-winded way of asking that question. What does "I love his OBP and power numbers" but you want a breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup mean? He has great numbers, but I want to see numbers that tell me if he hurts the team? What numbers are you looking for? Something that supports your notion that Ks are terrible?

 

Also - lots of 3/4/5 hitters hit weak grounders to the pitcher. They also make other outs in those situations that don't score runs, which are no better than Ks. As jersey (and others) posted - he has a .400 OBP and an OPS over .900 in these situations. You really think an average hitter might have a 40% OBP with runners on? What's league average for OBP in all situations - something around .330? I'm going to guess that the league average hitter doesn't jump his OBP up 70 points with a guy on 3rd.

 

Where did I say K's were terrible? I asked what the league average was not that I thought it was the league average. You're assuming info before you read what I wrote.

 

No, I read what you wrote. Several times, in fact. That I inferred some things b/c it was difficult to understand by itself. You're pretty clearly arguing that ks are worse than other outs in the situation you described, and thus, Dunn is worse than other 3/4/5 hitters. If that's not what you meant, then I'd ask that you state your position again.

 

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

[fromthestretch]

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

 

Manny's obviously a better offensive player than Dunn, but is it really fair to compare the two? Manny's career OPS is .101 higher than Dunn's, and his 2008 OPS is .071 higher. On top of that, do you really want to label Manny as a contact hitter? He's been over 100 strikeouts 10 times in his career. While he may not strikeout as often as Dunn, it's not like Pujols who only Ks about 60 times a season.

[CuseCubFan69]

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

 

Manny's obviously a better offensive player than Dunn, but is it really fair to compare the two? Manny's career OPS is .101 higher than Dunn's, and his 2008 OPS is .071 higher. On top of that, do you really want to label Manny as a contact hitter? He's been over 100 strikeouts 10 times in his career. While he may not strikeout as often as Dunn, it's not like Pujols who only Ks about 60 times a season.

 

But it's ok to compare the Neifi guys with Dunn who hit "weakly" to the pitcher? Manny swings hard and hits the ball hard and that is what has been said about Dunn. I'd rather have Manny then Dunn. I keep reading "Well, they'll not swing as hard" but yet Manny doesn't change his approach and Pujols is another guy who swings hard and is always a tough out while being more productive than Dunn. I don't think of Manny as a contact hitter but a guy who puts the bat on the ball and gets results more often than Dunn. Putting the ball in play with a hard swing gets Manny on base and drives in runs. Yes, maybe the error rate may be 2% (Which is the before said average) but with more contact you also have more of a chance of getting a hit as well due to getting a solid piece of the ball and bat speed with a guy like Manny or Pujols.

[sneakypower]

Adam Dunn has to get more money than Carlos Lee did, I'm pretty sure.

 

I'm just curious, how come when it comes to the strikeout question, people always dump on Dunn so much more often than Ryan Howard?

 

Also, of course, how the hell did the Dodgers not block this?

.278 & .247

 

when Howard doesn't K he's making much better contact

Edited August 13, 2008 by sneakypower

[Outshined_One]

Rotoworld reports that hard hitting but poor pitching pitcher Micah Owings will be one of the PTBNL sent to DBR.

 

All I know was the fact that Owings future would not be on the mound. I was never impressed with Owings as a pitcher, even at GT and Tulane. I felt Owings future was likely at 1st base or LF.

 

You really think that Micha could be a position player?

 

He did a pretty good job of it in college.

[jersey cubs fan]

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

 

Manny's obviously a better offensive player than Dunn, but is it really fair to compare the two? Manny's career OPS is .101 higher than Dunn's, and his 2008 OPS is .071 higher. On top of that, do you really want to label Manny as a contact hitter? He's been over 100 strikeouts 10 times in his career. While he may not strikeout as often as Dunn, it's not like Pujols who only Ks about 60 times a season.

 

But it's ok to compare the Neifi guys with Dunn who hit "weakly" to the pitcher? Manny swings hard and hits the ball hard and that is what has been said about Dunn. I'd rather have Manny then Dunn.

 

Because his production is higher. Manny has been better than Dunn, no question. But it is not becuase he strikes out less. Dunn is better than most everybody, with the exception of players like Manny.

 

But this is pointless in the discussion about strikeouts.

[CuseCubFan69]

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

 

Manny's obviously a better offensive player than Dunn, but is it really fair to compare the two? Manny's career OPS is .101 higher than Dunn's, and his 2008 OPS is .071 higher. On top of that, do you really want to label Manny as a contact hitter? He's been over 100 strikeouts 10 times in his career. While he may not strikeout as often as Dunn, it's not like Pujols who only Ks about 60 times a season.

 

But it's ok to compare the Neifi guys with Dunn who hit "weakly" to the pitcher? Manny swings hard and hits the ball hard and that is what has been said about Dunn. I'd rather have Manny then Dunn.

 

Because his production is higher. Manny has been better than Dunn, no question. But it is not becuase he strikes out less. Dunn is better than most everybody, with the exception of players like Manny.

 

But this is pointless in the discussion about strikeouts.

 

The point was brought up that since a player that doesn't want to strike out just puts the bat on the ball and I brought in a hitter that doesn't just stick his bat out to avoid a K, that's why he was brought into the debate. The idea that a player just avoiding a K is giving up the AB w/2 strikes is just plain wrong. Different players have different approaches w/2 strikes and different results, not just weakly hit grounders to the pitcher.

[Tracer Bullet]

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

 

Manny's obviously a better offensive player than Dunn, but is it really fair to compare the two? Manny's career OPS is .101 higher than Dunn's, and his 2008 OPS is .071 higher. On top of that, do you really want to label Manny as a contact hitter? He's been over 100 strikeouts 10 times in his career. While he may not strikeout as often as Dunn, it's not like Pujols who only Ks about 60 times a season.

 

But it's ok to compare the Neifi guys with Dunn who hit "weakly" to the pitcher? Manny swings hard and hits the ball hard and that is what has been said about Dunn. I'd rather have Manny then Dunn. I keep reading "Well, they'll not swing as hard" but yet Manny doesn't change his approach and Pujols is another guy who swings hard and is always a tough out while being more productive than Dunn. I don't think of Manny as a contact hitter but a guy who puts the bat on the ball and gets results more often than Dunn. Putting the ball in play with a hard swing gets Manny on base and drives in runs. Yes, maybe the error rate may be 2% (Which is the before said average) but with more contact you also have more of a chance of getting a hit as well due to getting a solid piece of the ball and bat speed with a guy like Manny or Pujols.

 

I don't remember comparing Dunn to Neifi. I just said if you change Dunn's approach with 2 strikes, it could result in other outs that don't drive in runs, such as grounders to the pitcher, short fly balls, pop outs, etc. Maybe Manny has the ability to swing really hard with 2 strikes and still make solid contact more often than Dunn (sure seems to be the case, from my very casual observations of the two). But I don't think that's relevant to the discussion of Ks.

 

Manny's a better hitter than Dunn, I won't argue that. But Dunn's better than most, Ks or not.

[fromthestretch]

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

 

Manny's obviously a better offensive player than Dunn, but is it really fair to compare the two? Manny's career OPS is .101 higher than Dunn's, and his 2008 OPS is .071 higher. On top of that, do you really want to label Manny as a contact hitter? He's been over 100 strikeouts 10 times in his career. While he may not strikeout as often as Dunn, it's not like Pujols who only Ks about 60 times a season.

 

But it's ok to compare the Neifi guys with Dunn who hit "weakly" to the pitcher? Manny swings hard and hits the ball hard and that is what has been said about Dunn. I'd rather have Manny then Dunn. I keep reading "Well, they'll not swing as hard" but yet Manny doesn't change his approach and Pujols is another guy who swings hard and is always a tough out while being more productive than Dunn. I don't think of Manny as a contact hitter but a guy who puts the bat on the ball and gets results more often than Dunn. Putting the ball in play with a hard swing gets Manny on base and drives in runs. Yes, maybe the error rate may be 2% (Which is the before said average) but with more contact you also have more of a chance of getting a hit as well due to getting a solid piece of the ball and bat speed with a guy like Manny or Pujols.

 

I don't think anyone's seriously comparing Neifi to Dunn.

 

Regardless, Dunn has been in the majors for eight seasons. If he was capable of maintaining his production at this level while cutting back on the strikeouts, don't you think he would have by now? He is what he is. A high strikeout, high walk, power hitter. Obviously, guys like Manny and Pujols are better hitters, and if you can get one of them for your team, that's great. No one's saying Dunn is the best hitter around, but there simply aren't a ton of hitters that are capable of consistently producing an OPS of .900, strikeouts or not.

[CuseCubFan69]

Let's put it this way. Would you rather have Dunn who swings and misses a lot or Manny who doesn't?

 

Manny's obviously a better offensive player than Dunn, but is it really fair to compare the two? Manny's career OPS is .101 higher than Dunn's, and his 2008 OPS is .071 higher. On top of that, do you really want to label Manny as a contact hitter? He's been over 100 strikeouts 10 times in his career. While he may not strikeout as often as Dunn, it's not like Pujols who only Ks about 60 times a season.

 

But it's ok to compare the Neifi guys with Dunn who hit "weakly" to the pitcher? Manny swings hard and hits the ball hard and that is what has been said about Dunn. I'd rather have Manny then Dunn. I keep reading "Well, they'll not swing as hard" but yet Manny doesn't change his approach and Pujols is another guy who swings hard and is always a tough out while being more productive than Dunn. I don't think of Manny as a contact hitter but a guy who puts the bat on the ball and gets results more often than Dunn. Putting the ball in play with a hard swing gets Manny on base and drives in runs. Yes, maybe the error rate may be 2% (Which is the before said average) but with more contact you also have more of a chance of getting a hit as well due to getting a solid piece of the ball and bat speed with a guy like Manny or Pujols.

 

I don't remember comparing Dunn to Neifi. I just said if you change Dunn's approach with 2 strikes, it could result in other outs that don't drive in runs, such as grounders to the pitcher, short fly balls, pop outs, etc. Maybe Manny has the ability to swing really hard with 2 strikes and still make solid contact more often than Dunn (sure seems to be the case, from my very casual observations of the two). But I don't think that's relevant to the discussion of Ks.

 

Manny's a better hitter than Dunn, I won't argue that. But Dunn's better than most, Ks or not.

 

I agree with you 100% that Dunn is a good hitter. I just added Neifi as a weak ground ball example and you didn't mention him.

 

The reason why I said Manny was to dismiss the theory of players w/a 2 strike count don't just cut their swing and hit the ball weakly. When I mentioned that I'd like a player that makes something happen instead of a K this was the point that was mentioned and the reason why I brought it up and to show that players don't just wave at a ball to avoid being struck out.

 

I realize that the original point was strikeouts are the same as every other out which I still feel is incorrect.

[rchap24]

Rotoworld reports that hard hitting but poor pitching pitcher Micah Owings will be one of the PTBNL sent to DBR.

 

All I know was the fact that Owings future would not be on the mound. I was never impressed with Owings as a pitcher, even at GT and Tulane. I felt Owings future was likely at 1st base or LF.

 

You really think that Micha could be a position player?

 

He did a pretty good job of it in college.

 

True, but he's been pitching for 2 years. Yeah obviously he still can hit, but athletically I don't think hes in the shape to play a corner outfield position.

[CuseCubFan69]

Now that you guys see who the Reds might have recieved in the trade, do you think those players are better than the comp picks they could have recieved?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Rotoworld reports that hard hitting but poor pitching pitcher Micah Owings will be one of the PTBNL sent to DBR.

 

All I know was the fact that Owings future would not be on the mound. I was never impressed with Owings as a pitcher, even at GT and Tulane. I felt Owings future was likely at 1st base or LF.

 

You really think that Micha could be a position player?

 

He did a pretty good job of it in college.

 

True, but he's been pitching for 2 years. Yeah obviously he still can hit, but athletically I don't think hes in the shape to play a corner outfield position.

he's been pitching for much longer than 2 years. he's also been hitting much longer than 2 years.

[SouthSideRyan]

Now that you guys see who the Reds might have recieved in the trade, do you think those players are better than the comp picks they could have recieved?

 

Definitely. Owings alone is probably worth more than the picks.