Dunn to the Dbacks

[chopsx9]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

[CuseCubFan69]

When did Adam Dunn morph into the most feared hitter of all time? He can be pitched to, although it is clear the Cubs have yet to figure that out.

 

I doubt he makes as big an impact as some are claiming.

 

He's a nice piece to have, a slugger with some pretty big holes in his swing.

 

Who is saying he's the most feared hitter of all time? Adding Dunn is a pretty big improvement for Arizona, as big an individual improvement as any team could reasonably expect to get midseason.

 

Just look at his br.com comparables, the most similar hitter is Pat Burrell, the most similar by age is Darryl Strawberry. He's easily the most productive hitter on their team now, and would quite possibly be the most productive hitter in any Cubs/DBacks series. He's not somebody who is going to turn Arizona into a 95 win team, but he's definitely somebody you worry about in any 5 or 7 game series.

 

It just seems to me that there is a flood of posts suggesting that they would rather face LA in a possible playoff matchup. Well, that was the case before this trade. Arizona should be feared because of their very good 1-2 combo of Webb/Haren.

 

I'd be more worried about their pitching than their offense. Dunn is hot and cold. He could also very likely do nothing in a 5-7 game series. He's a good power hitter.

 

I honestly think either team would be a difficult matchup. I think Chad Billingsley is very underrated and Lowe has a history of handling the Cubs as well.

 

Just have to wait and see and hope the Cubs get an opportunity to solve that problem.

 

I agree. Just try to get the best record in the NL and then go from there. If I remember correctly, many people were thrilled to play Arizona last year in the playoffs and look how that turned out.

[jersey cubs fan]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

[CuseCubFan69]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

[CubinNY]

An out is an out. If you want to look at something look at how many times he doesn't make an out. He gets on base nearly 40% of the time he comes to the plate.

 

We've all seen this movie before.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

 

That's is meaningless. What about a guy who doesn't K, but grounds into a DP with runners on with less than 2 outs? As said previously, and out is an out.

[rchap24]

An out is an out. If you want to look at something look at how many times he doesn't make an out. He gets on base nearly 40% of the time he comes to the plate.

 

We've all seen this movie before.

Regardless if he strikes out a lot or his batting average is low, his OBP is .379. So yes he does strike out a lot, but like just said he's on base 40% of the time

[javy knows my name]

I can't believe another team didn't put in a claim on him.

 

Baseball "people" are so myopic sometimes. The guy is a game changer almost every time he makes contact with the baseball.

 

If only that happened more frequently.

I don't quite agree with the way CubinNY worded that but still, :banghead:

[CuseCubFan69]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

 

That's is meaningless. What about a guy who doesn't K, but grounds into a DP with runners on with less than 2 outs? As said previously, and out is an out.

 

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

 

That's is meaningless. What about a guy who doesn't K, but grounds into a DP with runners on with less than 2 outs? As said previously, and out is an out.

 

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

I want Adam Dunn in my lineup.

[CuseCubFan69]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

 

That's is meaningless. What about a guy who doesn't K, but grounds into a DP with runners on with less than 2 outs? As said previously, and out is an out.

 

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

I want Adam Dunn in my lineup.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't want Dunn or a similar hitter in my lineup. What I said was A) it could be maddning and B) An out isn't an out.

[rchap24]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

 

That's is meaningless. What about a guy who doesn't K, but grounds into a DP with runners on with less than 2 outs? As said previously, and out is an out.

 

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

I want Adam Dunn in my lineup.

I would love Dunn in my lineup

[Tracer Bullet]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

 

That's is meaningless. What about a guy who doesn't K, but grounds into a DP with runners on with less than 2 outs? As said previously, and out is an out.

 

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

 

In a single AB, if the choices are K or long fly ball, with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs, obviously you pick the latter. But that's not the way it works. Over the course of the season, he's likely to put up roughly the same numbers in those situations as he does all the other times.

 

My point is - if you have a choice of Dunn taking the same approach in those situations as he does all the other PAs during the season or completely changing his approach, I'd pick the former. I want the guy with an OBP-heavy .900+ OPS to have the same approach regardless of the situation. Does that mean sometimes he'll K in a situation where a fly out would be better? Sure. But he's also more likely to hit a HR or a double in those situations than a weak grounder back to the pitcher b/c he doesn't swing just to make contact.

[GoCubsGo1679625768]

Now theyre is going to rack up even mroe strikeouts.

Whogivesacrapaboutstrkeouts?

 

When you strikeout 25 - 30% of your plate appearances (30 - 35% of your abs) it matters. It's not the be all and end all and he definately offsets it at least partitially in other areas but it is still a negative.

 

If you are going to tout the positives it dimishes the argument if you simply ignore the negatives.

 

It's simply not a negative if his productivity is still there.

 

But you have to break down some of his productivity regarding the K's though. I wonder how many times he K'd w/a runner on third w/less than 2 outs? He's a heck of a hitter but I'm sure he's quite maddning to have on your team at times as well.

 

That's is meaningless. What about a guy who doesn't K, but grounds into a DP with runners on with less than 2 outs? As said previously, and out is an out.

 

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

I want Adam Dunn in my lineup.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't want Dunn or a similar hitter in my lineup. What I said was A) it could be maddning and B) An out isn't an out.

 

You know what is even more maddening...and outfielder that doesn't produce. Dunn produces...that really is the bottom line.

[CuseCubFan69]

Once again, an out is not an out in real life. It depends on the situation. A DP is 2 outs.

 

Just answer this, would you rather have Dunn hit a fly ball to the OF or K w/ a runner at third w/less than 2 outs?

 

In a single AB, if the choices are K or long fly ball, with a runner on 3rd and < 2 outs, obviously you pick the latter. But that's not the way it works. Over the course of the season, he's likely to put up roughly the same numbers in those situations as he does all the other times.

 

My point is - if you have a choice of Dunn taking the same approach in those situations as he does all the other PAs during the season or completely changing his approach, I'd pick the former. I want the guy with an OBP-heavy .900+ OPS to have the same approach regardless of the situation. Does that mean sometimes he'll K in a situation where a fly out would be better? Sure. But he's also more likely to hit a HR or a double in those situations than a weak grounder back to the pitcher b/c he doesn't swing just to make contact.

 

How many good 3-4-5 hitters hit weak grounders to the Pitcher? I agree that Dunn is very likely to walk/homer or K half the time he's up but you really wouldn't mind watching him take strike 3 time and time again because he won't change his approach? Is there a stat that shows how productive he really is? I can understand why a lot of people think he's an impact hitter and I agree he is. But, there is a lot of negative regarding his numbers as well and I'm curious on how much his approach really helps his team. I love his OBP and power numbers and I'd love to see a good statistical breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup.

[Electron Blue]

Since it's been used in some hypothetical, I looked it up.

 

This year, Dunn has 5 sacrifice flies.

 

Compared to the cubs, this would rank as second (7, 5, 5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 1, 1). Our team leader in Ks, Geo Soto, also has five SFs.

 

HOWEVER, Dunn has already set a career high for SFs in a season, never before topping 4. :)

 

edit:

 

for further information, he currently has 4 GIDPs.

 

Compared to the cubs, this would rank as tied for seventh (22, 14, 11, 7, 7, 6, 5, 4, 4, 4, 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 1). Our team leader in Ks, Geo Soto, has 7 GIDPs.

Edited August 12, 2008 by Electron Blue

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm not saying I wouldn't want Dunn or a similar hitter in my lineup. What I said was A) it could be maddning and B) An out isn't an out.

 

You know what is even more maddening...and outfielder that doesn't produce. Dunn produces...that really is the bottom line.

 

He does produce HR's/walks, absolutely. If he has guys in front of him and behind that could hit like the Cubs for example I'd love to see how it would work out linup wise and where Lou would hit him. Dunn is a guy that would be interesting to have a computer put him on a bunch of teams and see how it effects the lineups of each team he is on and then move him in the linup and then see where he would best help the team. He's such a unique hitter.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

how many of his strikeouts are looking vs swinging? anywhere have that data?

[Outshined_One]

How many good 3-4-5 hitters hit weak grounders to the Pitcher? I agree that Dunn is very likely to walk/homer or K half the time he's up but you really wouldn't mind watching him take strike 3 time and time again because he won't change his approach? Is there a stat that shows how productive he really is? I can understand why a lot of people think he's an impact hitter and I agree he is. But, there is a lot of negative regarding his numbers as well and I'm curious on how much his approach really helps his team. I love his OBP and power numbers and I'd love to see a good statistical breakdown of how he helps/hurts a lineup.

 

How precisely would you value this breakdown? Would you only look at situations where he has runners on base? Runners in scoring position? In situations where the run differential of a game is less than or equal to 3?

 

OBP and OPS are two very good ways of valuing a player's worth to a lineup. They are not without their flaws, but Dunn throughout his career has put up very good OBP and OPS numbers. You're asking for something which will either place a heavy weight on strikeouts (which assumes a strikeout is somehow worse than every other out) or which cannot be measured through the numbers we have because of limited sample sizes. Quite frankly, there are "useful" outs, but you're trying to frame the question as if the options for those outs are either a sacrifice fly or a strikeout. You know that is not the case. He could hit a shallow fly-out. He could ground out in such a way that the run does not score. He could foul out. There are plenty of ways he could record an out without the run scoring beyond just the strikeout.

 

The other thing you have to take into account is that changing his game so that he hits less strikeouts will inevitably result in his power and walk numbers declining. Dunn's game is centered on swinging only at balls within a narrow window. Everything else he will lay off of. If you expand that window, perhaps he will hit more singles and raise his batting average to .280. Maybe he'll hit more flyouts to the outfield for sacrifice flies.

 

However, he will swing at worse pitches than he does now. He will see fewer pitches. He will see fewer good pitches within his current window. Where he once would have taken a walk or hit the cover off the ball with runners in scoring position, he instead would record an out in order to score a run.

 

If you tell Dunn to change his approach, the only numbers you'd be making better are his batting average and strikeouts. The change in strikeouts would be offset by an increase in ground outs and fly outs. You wouldn't be making him a better power hitter or a more patient hitter. Frankly, you'd be making him worse in those two respects.

[CuseCubFan69]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation. He makes pitchers pitch which is always a valuable asset to have and hits the ball far when he hits it but I'd like to see the real value in a hitter like Dunn over a hitter like Manny.

[jersey cubs fan]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

[fromthestretch]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation. He makes pitchers pitch which is always a valuable asset to have and hits the ball far when he hits it but I'd like to see the real value in a hitter like Dunn over a hitter like Manny.

 

Adam Dunn in his career with a runner on third and less than two outs:

 

253 PA, 11 2B, 1 3B, 12 HR, 134 RBI, 49 BB (13 intentional), 63 K, 21 SF, .270/.403/.545

[CuseCubFan69]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

[jersey cubs fan]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

I really don't know, but I'm going to assume the average player hits similar to what the average player hits overall, in that situation, something like a 260/332/415 line.

[imb]

So O_O, Dunn has had enough AB's in his career to be able to find out how well or at least, what he has done with a runner on third w/less than 2 outs. I understand there is more to this that this one thing but I'm curious on how productive he is in this situation.

 

.270/.403/.545

 

Thanks Jersey...Not bad. So he's making something good happen 40% of the time, is this a big difference over the average of all players in this situation?

 

do you really think that the league averages anywhere near to a .948 ops in any situation?