Ryan Dempsters Cubs future.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Everyone keeps talking about Ben Sheets and CC Sabthias off seasons. More than likely, the Brewers wont even try to compete with the mega deals teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, and Phillies will be offering these guys, but nobody seems to mention Dempster. If his second half is anything near his first half, I cant imagine him not at least testing free agency. Granted, we have more money than the Brewers, but still a lot of teams will be looking at him. Im sure could afford him, and make a competitive offer, but will we try? Zambrano is inked for quite some time. We'll have Harden, Lilly, and Marquis for at least 1 more year, plus the emerging Marshall, Hill, and maybe Samardzjia, Veal, and Atkins down on the farm.

 

Will the Cubs under the new ownership consider Demp to be worth what some of these other teams might be willing to offer him?

[Keener98]

If he keeps up anywhere close to his 1st half, Id give him a Marquis deal.

[Clem Fandango]

I would imagine he would give the Cubs a "hometown discount". I think he loves it here and at the same time is very thankful for the opportunities they've given him to succeed as not only a starter this year, but a closer the past 3 years. The Cubs have helped revive his career, I think he'd be thankful for that and would sign for cheaper than he would get elsewhere.

 

I also do not see Marquis in the starting rotation next year, either he moves before the break or after the season. I don't see why they would keep him when he's got 1 year or a year and a half left on the contract that could be easily eaten up assuming we get a new owner who is able to spend money

[SouthSideRyan]

If he keeps up anywhere close to his 1st half, Id give him a Marquis deal.

 

If his ERA stays 3.75 or lower, that ain't gonna get it done. I think Ryan's going to become a very rich man.

[CubinNY]

The next owner of the Cubs is going to have to make some tough choices. Hopefully he/they have some deep pockets. Dempster is going to deserve a fair market value contract. If Wood keeps this up he's going to be expensive too.

[Keener98]

If he keeps up anywhere close to his 1st half, Id give him a Marquis deal.

 

If his ERA stays 3.75 or lower, that ain't gonna get it done. I think Ryan's going to become a very rich man.

 

I would think his injury history would come in to play and lower his value some. I also expect Demp to give the Cubs a pretty good discount if they want him back. Just seems like the type of guy Demp is. Id go 3/30 with a 4th year option based on innings pitched.

[SouthSideRyan]

If he keeps up anywhere close to his 1st half, Id give him a Marquis deal.

 

If his ERA stays 3.75 or lower, that ain't gonna get it done. I think Ryan's going to become a very rich man.

 

I would think his injury history would come in to play and lower his value some. I also expect Demp to give the Cubs a pretty good discount if they want him back. Just seems like the type of guy Demp is. Id go 3/30 with a 4th year option based on innings pitched.

 

Isn't his injury history pretty much just TJS 4 years ago?

[Keener98]

If he keeps up anywhere close to his 1st half, Id give him a Marquis deal.

 

If his ERA stays 3.75 or lower, that ain't gonna get it done. I think Ryan's going to become a very rich man.

 

I would think his injury history would come in to play and lower his value some. I also expect Demp to give the Cubs a pretty good discount if they want him back. Just seems like the type of guy Demp is. Id go 3/30 with a 4th year option based on innings pitched.

 

Isn't his injury history pretty much just TJS 4 years ago?

 

Shhh its still a history :D But yea, I think Demp gives the Cubs a good discount to stay here for them taking the chance on him.

[CubbieBum]

I would expect someone to offer him something around 4 yrs/42-48 mil if his era stays under 3.75. If his era is right at 3.75 he'll get offered 42 mil if it stays say around 3.40 he'll get offered 48 mil.

[Wheelimus]

I'm kind of hoping that the Barry Zito implosion cools the starting pitching market just a bit. Sure, CC is going to get freaking paid. But I hope the market for what I'd call "2nd tier" pitchers is a little more sane.

 

And Ryan Dempster is certainly going to get paid as well. But I think he's going to be fair to the Cubs. And if we're fair to him there's a pretty decent chance of him pitching for us next year. He certainly owes the fact that he has a MLB career in 2008 to the Cubs.

[SouthSideRyan]

It's dangerous to talk about such things, and pretty difficult since we have no clue what kind of payroll cap we're looking at in the future, but would Dempster be a smart investment?

 

Next year we've already got Z, Harden, Lilly as deadset locks for the rotation. Then to go with them(as of now) we have Marquis, Marshall, Hill, and Gaudin as possible starters. Then you've got some filler in AAA that could be emergency guys (Atkins, Hart, Wells?)

 

It doesn't seem a great use of resources to spend 10M+ on a another starter. Granted, heading into next season we don't have a lot of holes to fill, we'll have Dempster, Edmonds, Wood, Howry, and Eyre, Johnson, Blanco, and Ward as the only free agents. But we also have some serious raises upcoming for just about everyone.

[UMFan83]

I don't see Dempster on the Cubs next year unless he takes some sort of Cubs discount. I know he loves the team though so who knows.

[Butterscup1679666578]

I'd give him something like 3/30M, but not much more.

[mcgoobs]

I would expect someone to offer him something around 4 yrs/42-48 mil if his era stays under 3.75. If his era is right at 3.75 he'll get offered 42 mil if it stays say around 3.40 he'll get offered 48 mil.

 

Assuming he maintains his performance and doesn't get injured, I think those numbers are in line with what a desperate GM would give Dempster. The Cubs would be wise to pass if Dempster is offered anything more than three years at $10M per. He's been a very pleasant surprise this year, but 4 years for a 31-year old pitcher who only returned to the starting role after a five-year stint as a reliever is too aggressive.

[NCCubFan]

I would expect someone to offer him something around 4 yrs/42-48 mil if his era stays under 3.75. If his era is right at 3.75 he'll get offered 42 mil if it stays say around 3.40 he'll get offered 48 mil.

 

Assuming he maintains his performance and doesn't get injured, I think those numbers are in line with what a desperate GM would give Dempster. The Cubs would be wise to pass if Dempster is offered anything more than three years at $10M per. He's been a very pleasant surprise this year, but 4 years for a 31-year old pitcher who only returned to the starting role after a five-year stint as a reliever is too aggressive.

You mean his "five-year stint" that lasted about 2 3/4 years? He was moved to the bullpen in 2005 after starting the season in the rotation and remained there for the rest of 2005 and all of 2006 and 2007.

[rawaction]

I think the Cubs will re-sign Dempster if he wants to be in Chicago. There's a couple ways to look at this. You could see it as the Cubs having a lot of money tied into the rotation with Zambrano, Harden, Lilly and Marquis, plus having a number of viable options (Hill, Marshall, Gaudin) ready to go at a moment's notice. Or you could see it as Marquis and Harden being in the last year of their contracts. If the Cubs think Dempster can truly continue to be a good starter, there's no reason they can't re-sign him. Hendry has been very good at getting players to sign backloaded deals to save money for the present season. Lilly, Marquis, Soriano, Zambrano, Lee and Ramirez all signed deals that were backloaded to help Hendry have room to maneuver in his budget. I could see Dempster getting essentially a 4/$40M contract. Give him a slight raise to $8Mil next year (making 7.3 this year), and backload the deal. I tend to dislike backloaded deals as you pay a guy the most for what will likely be his worst year, but it works well if are getting production at below market level elsewhere on the roster.

 

Dempster also had the added value based on the fact that he is a proven closer also. So, if starting doesn't work out for the length of his next contract, he can conceivably go back to the pen and be successful again. I think the Cubs re-sign him without thinking to hard about it. Torn on whether they should or not.

[TruffleShuffle]

i wouldn't mind keeping him around - they'd probably have to give him a low number next year (since marquis is sucking up $9.875M) and then once marquis' crappy contract is off the books, they could pay more to dempster beyond then.

 

ideally, they could dump marquis and then let gaudin/hill/marshall fill the 5th spot next year.

[rawaction]

i wouldn't mind keeping him around - they'd probably have to give him a low number next year (since marquis is sucking up $9.875M) and then once marquis' crappy contract is off the books, they could pay more to dempster beyond then.

 

ideally, they could dump marquis and then let gaudin/hill/marshall fill the 5th spot next year.

 

That's what I imagine would happen if they re-signed Dempster. Pay Marquis to finish out his contract elsewhere (aka trade him to a team needing an innings eater). But they won't get anyone to take all of Marquis' salary unless Littlefield gets another GM job.

 

Also, for those worried about what re-signing Dempster would do to the ability to re-sign Harden, you can do the same thing with his contract with Lilly coming off the books after 09.

[Butterscup1679666578]

i wouldn't mind keeping him around - they'd probably have to give him a low number next year (since marquis is sucking up $9.875M) and then once marquis' crappy contract is off the books, they could pay more to dempster beyond then.

 

ideally, they could dump marquis and then let gaudin/hill/marshall fill the 5th spot next year.

 

That's what I imagine would happen if they re-signed Dempster. Pay Marquis to finish out his contract elsewhere (aka trade him to a team needing an innings eater). But they won't get anyone to take all of Marquis' salary unless Littlefield gets another GM job.

 

Also, for those worried about what re-signing Dempster would do to the ability to re-sign Harden, you can do the same thing with his contract with Lilly coming off the books after 09.

 

I was thinking about this earlier. If Hill gets it all together, I wouldn't mind trying to move both Marquis and Lilly this offseason to free up some money and go with a rotation of Z, Harden, Hill, Dempster, and Marshall next year with Gaudin able to step in if needed.

[NCCubFan]

I'd like to see the Cubs re-sign Dempster if he wants to return enough to give a hometown discount. The Cubs discovered the hard way the last few years that you can't have too much starting pitching, because injuries are inevitable.

[ChiCubsFan]

i wouldn't mind keeping him around - they'd probably have to give him a low number next year (since marquis is sucking up $9.875M) and then once marquis' crappy contract is off the books, they could pay more to dempster beyond then.

 

ideally, they could dump marquis and then let gaudin/hill/marshall fill the 5th spot next year.

 

That's what I imagine would happen if they re-signed Dempster. Pay Marquis to finish out his contract elsewhere (aka trade him to a team needing an innings eater). But they won't get anyone to take all of Marquis' salary unless Littlefield gets another GM job.

 

Also, for those worried about what re-signing Dempster would do to the ability to re-sign Harden, you can do the same thing with his contract with Lilly coming off the books after 09.

 

I was thinking about this earlier. If Hill gets it all together, I wouldn't mind trying to move both Marquis and Lilly this offseason to free up some money and go with a rotation of Z, Harden, Hill, Dempster, and Marshall next year with Gaudin able to step in if needed.

 

That would be ideal.

[mul21]

Isn't Lilly signed thru 2010? I thought his deal was 4/$40.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I think that Hendry and Ryan will find a way to make sure Dempster is a Cub next year. I also have the same faith concerning Kerry Wood.

[rawaction]

i wouldn't mind keeping him around - they'd probably have to give him a low number next year (since marquis is sucking up $9.875M) and then once marquis' crappy contract is off the books, they could pay more to dempster beyond then.

 

ideally, they could dump marquis and then let gaudin/hill/marshall fill the 5th spot next year.

 

That's what I imagine would happen if they re-signed Dempster. Pay Marquis to finish out his contract elsewhere (aka trade him to a team needing an innings eater). But they won't get anyone to take all of Marquis' salary unless Littlefield gets another GM job.

 

Also, for those worried about what re-signing Dempster would do to the ability to re-sign Harden, you can do the same thing with his contract with Lilly coming off the books after 09.

 

I was thinking about this earlier. If Hill gets it all together, I wouldn't mind trying to move both Marquis and Lilly this offseason to free up some money and go with a rotation of Z, Harden, Hill, Dempster, and Marshall next year with Gaudin able to step in if needed.

 

That would be ideal.

 

It would be ideal to have 6 possible starters when 1 has been on the DL 6 times in 4 years, another is in the minors because of control issues, another has (including this year) been an above average ML starter for 1/2 a season of his life, and another just came off the DL and has been one of the most abused arms in baseball the last 5 years?

 

I'd rather have as many options as possible. Harden will go on the DL. At least once in 2009, it's nearly a given. The other guys aren't likely to combine for 130 starts either.

[rawaction]

Isn't Lilly signed thru 2010? I thought his deal was 4/$40.

 

Yeah, I said 09 early, but I meant 2010 which the context would suggest.