Why is Ryan Theriot in the NL Top 10 Hitters?

[CubinNY]

well none of them have shown to be reliable or altogether very consistent so it'd kind of be cool to try watching some games and having a civil argument about defense using opinions.

 

but it seems you and so many others are much more concerned with proving to everyone else how stupid they are for disagreeing with numerical manipulations masquerading as empirical proof.

 

 

 

i can see it now, watching a ballgame

 

"wow, what an incredible catch!"

"...i'm going to have to see what dewan et. al has to say about it before i make any judgments"

When most measurement tools say something is X you can pretty well bet that whatever is measured is closer to X than further from it.

[Colin Wyers]

When most measurement tools say something is X you can pretty well bet that whatever is measured is closer to X than further from it.

 

Not really. There may be some merit to combining metrics like UZR and PMR, but they mostly have to do with increasing the validity of the observed measurement. But on the whole, you're better off using the best defensive metric available, rather than trying to combine the results of all defensive metrics. In this case, RZR is the best defensive metric we have available to us for Year 2008 performance. (Jinaz does a great rundown of what's available, although it predates the release of several promising Retrosheet-based methods.)

[CubinNY]

When most measurement tools say something is X you can pretty well bet that whatever is measured is closer to X than further from it.

 

Not really. There may be some merit to combining metrics like UZR and PMR, but they mostly have to do with increasing the validity of the observed measurement. But on the whole, you're better off using the best defensive metric available, rather than trying to combine the results of all defensive metrics. In this case, RZR is the best defensive metric we have available to us for Year 2008 performance. (Jinaz does a great rundown of what's available, although it predates the release of several promising Retrosheet-based methods.)

I don't mean combining them, I mean looking at each one critically for agreement

 

If I have a measuring tape that measure in only inches and something measures to 14 inches plus some undetermined extra and I have another tape that measures in in 1/2 inches and it measures that same thing 14 inches and something less than 14 1/2. If there's a third one that only measures in centimeters and it measures 36 cm, I still don't know what the exact measurement is but I'm willing to bet it's right around 14 inches.

 

If multiple defensive metrics say that Theriot isn't doing well, he's probably not.

[sneakypower]

last year i saw him as very adequate in the field, making up for lack of arm strength with sound fundamentals and decent range to his left, but this year he's been disappointing- most notably the past week & a half or so. but he's also making boneheaded mistakes on the bases, while his hitting has been terrific.

 

So... basically what the zone rating stats said.

but you treated it like a certainty that Theriot is now and forever henceforth will be a bad fielder.

[Tracer Bullet]

last year i saw him as very adequate in the field, making up for lack of arm strength with sound fundamentals and decent range to his left, but this year he's been disappointing- most notably the past week & a half or so. but he's also making boneheaded mistakes on the bases, while his hitting has been terrific.

 

So... basically what the zone rating stats said.

but you treated it like a certainty that Theriot is now and forever henceforth will be a bad fielder.

 

Just can't let it go, or what? You say you can't trust a defensive metric that rates a guy really high one year and really low the next. Then you say that your subjective view basically corroborates that (only apparently you didn't realize that's what you were saying).

[sneakypower]

last year i saw him as very adequate in the field, making up for lack of arm strength with sound fundamentals and decent range to his left, but this year he's been disappointing- most notably the past week & a half or so. but he's also making boneheaded mistakes on the bases, while his hitting has been terrific.

 

So... basically what the zone rating stats said.

but you treated it like a certainty that Theriot is now and forever henceforth will be a bad fielder.

 

Just can't let it go, or what? You say you can't trust a defensive metric that rates a guy really high one year and really low the next. Then you say that your subjective view basically corroborates that (only apparently you didn't realize that's what you were saying).

no, there were plenty of other reasons to distrust RZR but that wasn't really the topic being discussed.

[rocket]

i'm pretty sure there should be a new rule that ryan theriot isn't allowed to attempt to steal bases anymore.

[TruffleShuffle]

i'm pretty sure there should be a new rule that ryan theriot isn't allowed to attempt to steal bases against yadier molina anymore.

 

fixed

[David]

i'm pretty sure there should be a new rule that ryan theriot isn't allowed to attempt to steal bases against yadier molina anymore.

 

fixed

 

Or anyone else, considering his success rate and the fact that he should've been called out two more times this year. He should be 5 of 13. I don't care about sample sizes in this case, I'm tired of seeing him (and Lou) waste outs on the bases.

[TheDude]

People in this thread keep talking about Theriot's avg and babip, but he is also walking at a higher rate than last year (same rate as his limited '06 sample size). He also has a career high #p/pa at 3.73.

 

So while his avg is floated, and he is still a 2/1 gb/fb singles guy, he is having better at bats this year and demonstrating more mature plate presence.

 

As others have pointed out, all of these characteristics are true for Cedeno also, but I have to wonder if Cedeno's plate patience is as real and longterm as Theriot's, because the shift in numbers doesn't look like subtle growth the way Theriot's do - it's quite dramatic and honestly unexpected.

 

Overall Cedeno will be the longer term starter. Maybe not in '08, but he's young and growing and will work his way into that role in the next couple of years.

[CuseCubFan69]

People in this thread keep talking about Theriot's avg and babip, but he is also walking at a higher rate than last year (same rate as his limited '06 sample size). He also has a career high #p/pa at 3.73.

 

So while his avg is floated, and he is still a 2/1 gb/fb singles guy, he is having better at bats this year and demonstrating more mature plate presence.

 

As others have pointed out, all of these characteristics are true for Cedeno also, but I have to wonder if Cedeno's plate patience is as real and longterm as Theriot's, because the shift in numbers doesn't look like subtle growth the way Theriot's do - it's quite dramatic and honestly unexpected.

 

Overall Cedeno will be the longer term starter. Maybe not in '08, but he's young and growing and will work his way into that role in the next couple of years.

 

Both guys may have finally adapted to MLB pitching and I hope they both continue to grow as hitters. If Theriot can continually force pitchers to pitch and hit line drives and grounders and not the lazy Fly Balls, that would be a very good thing.

[TheDude]

People in this thread keep talking about Theriot's avg and babip, but he is also walking at a higher rate than last year (same rate as his limited '06 sample size). He also has a career high #p/pa at 3.73.

 

So while his avg is floated, and he is still a 2/1 gb/fb singles guy, he is having better at bats this year and demonstrating more mature plate presence.

 

As others have pointed out, all of these characteristics are true for Cedeno also, but I have to wonder if Cedeno's plate patience is as real and longterm as Theriot's, because the shift in numbers doesn't look like subtle growth the way Theriot's do - it's quite dramatic and honestly unexpected.

 

Overall Cedeno will be the longer term starter. Maybe not in '08, but he's young and growing and will work his way into that role in the next couple of years.

 

Both guys may have finally adapted to MLB pitching and I hope they both continue to grow as hitters. If Theriot can continually force pitchers to pitch and hit line drives and grounders and not the lazy Fly Balls, that would be a very good thing.

 

Me too. It's just hard to trust Cedeno's numbers. He had 25 walks in 741 plate appearances from 2005-2007 (5 of which were IBB, which is 20%). His #p/pa is those plate appearances hovered around 3.52.

 

Now he has 7 walks in 55 plate appearances, with a 4.2 #p/pa. Those are both dramatic changes and honestly unlikely to be sustained. But I have my fingers crossed.

[CuseCubFan69]

People in this thread keep talking about Theriot's avg and babip, but he is also walking at a higher rate than last year (same rate as his limited '06 sample size). He also has a career high #p/pa at 3.73.

 

So while his avg is floated, and he is still a 2/1 gb/fb singles guy, he is having better at bats this year and demonstrating more mature plate presence.

 

As others have pointed out, all of these characteristics are true for Cedeno also, but I have to wonder if Cedeno's plate patience is as real and longterm as Theriot's, because the shift in numbers doesn't look like subtle growth the way Theriot's do - it's quite dramatic and honestly unexpected.

 

Overall Cedeno will be the longer term starter. Maybe not in '08, but he's young and growing and will work his way into that role in the next couple of years.

 

Both guys may have finally adapted to MLB pitching and I hope they both continue to grow as hitters. If Theriot can continually force pitchers to pitch and hit line drives and grounders and not the lazy Fly Balls, that would be a very good thing.

 

Me too. It's just hard to trust Cedeno's numbers. He had 25 walks in 741 plate appearances from 2005-2007 (5 of which were IBB, which is 20%). His #p/pa is those plate appearances hovered around 3.52.

 

Now he has 7 walks in 55 plate appearances, with a 4.2 #p/pa. Those are both dramatic changes and honestly unlikely to be sustained. But I have my fingers crossed.

 

It's possible that Perry has worked with the players and they have seen the light. I'd love to have Perry be able to improve an average hitters approach while to help a very good hitter with slight adjustments. If he can do that, he's (Perry) worth his weight in gold.

[rawaction]

i'm pretty sure there should be a new rule that ryan theriot isn't allowed to attempt to steal bases against yadier molina anymore.

 

fixed

 

It was right the first time.

[ctcf]

i'm pretty sure there should be a new rule that ryan theriot isn't allowed to attempt to steal bases against yadier molina anymore.

 

fixed

 

It was right the first time.

[Tracer Bullet]

People in this thread keep talking about Theriot's avg and babip, but he is also walking at a higher rate than last year (same rate as his limited '06 sample size). He also has a career high #p/pa at 3.73.

 

So while his avg is floated, and he is still a 2/1 gb/fb singles guy, he is having better at bats this year and demonstrating more mature plate presence.

 

As others have pointed out, all of these characteristics are true for Cedeno also, but I have to wonder if Cedeno's plate patience is as real and longterm as Theriot's, because the shift in numbers doesn't look like subtle growth the way Theriot's do - it's quite dramatic and honestly unexpected.

 

Overall Cedeno will be the longer term starter. Maybe not in '08, but he's young and growing and will work his way into that role in the next couple of years.

 

Both guys may have finally adapted to MLB pitching and I hope they both continue to grow as hitters. If Theriot can continually force pitchers to pitch and hit line drives and grounders and not the lazy Fly Balls, that would be a very good thing.

 

Me too. It's just hard to trust Cedeno's numbers. He had 25 walks in 741 plate appearances from 2005-2007 (5 of which were IBB, which is 20%). His #p/pa is those plate appearances hovered around 3.52.

 

Now he has 7 walks in 55 plate appearances, with a 4.2 #p/pa. Those are both dramatic changes and honestly unlikely to be sustained. But I have my fingers crossed.

 

He also not being coached by Dusty anymore, which could have a big effect on a young hitter. If you're 23 and in your first year in the majors and been given a starting job, you're probably doing whatever the manager tells you to do, even if it's being overly aggressive. It's been 2 years, maybe he's changed his approach with some good coaching. Either way, he's entering or in his prime. The time to "work him into" the starting role is now.

[rocket]

i'm pretty sure there should be a new rule that ryan theriot isn't allowed to attempt to steal bases against yadier molina while yadier's practically lying on his stomach anymore.

 

fixed

 

fixed again

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Theriot has more CS than everyone else on the Cubs. Combined. For funsies, if you remove the CS from his OBP, it's at .333 for the season.

[XZero771679666304]

Theriot has more CS than everyone else on the Cubs. Combined. For funsies, if you remove the CS from his OBP, it's at .333 for the season.

 

 

And he has a penchant for attempting to steal when he shouldn't, making the CS that much worse.

 

 

I don't know if he has just been the victim of great throws this year or the good SB% he had in 2006 and 2007 were a mirage, but I am at the point where I want Theriot anchored to the base.

[sneakypower]

and a .470 slg, resultant in a higher OPS. though, to be sure, it's less valuable to the team.

[Guest]

People in this thread keep talking about Theriot's avg and babip, but he is also walking at a higher rate than last year (same rate as his limited '06 sample size). He also has a career high #p/pa at 3.73.

 

So while his avg is floated, and he is still a 2/1 gb/fb singles guy, he is having better at bats this year and demonstrating more mature plate presence.

 

As others have pointed out, all of these characteristics are true for Cedeno also, but I have to wonder if Cedeno's plate patience is as real and longterm as Theriot's, because the shift in numbers doesn't look like subtle growth the way Theriot's do - it's quite dramatic and honestly unexpected.

 

Overall Cedeno will be the longer term starter. Maybe not in '08, but he's young and growing and will work his way into that role in the next couple of years.

 

Ronny was also using that dramatic shift in plate discipline to post fantastic numbers at AAA Iowa. Hopefully it was just a matter of time before he incorporated that into his game in the big leagues and this keeps up.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Cedeno's success is only unexpected if you are one of those people who insist that AAA results have absolutely no predictive value whatsoever.