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Old-Timey Member
Posted (edited)

http://www.glyphjockey.com/pix07/lennon.jpg

John Lennon, 119 ERA+ through 23 2/3 IP.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/images/2007/03/05/9JRK4k5V.jpg

Ted Lilly, 59 ERA+ through 24 and 2/3 IP.

 

Cubs Vs. Lannan

Never faced 'em.

 

Nationals Vs. Lilly

                    **PA**  AB  H  2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO   BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
Cristian Guzman      19    18   1  0  0  0   0   1   8  .056  .105  .056  .161
Ron Belliard         12     9   2  1  0  0   0   3   1  .222  .417  .333  .750
Nick Johnson         11     9   3  0  0  0   1   2   1  .333  .455  .333  .788
Felipe Lopez          9     8   2  0  0  2   3   0   2  .250  .333 1.000 1.333
Wily Mo Pena          6     5   0  0  0  0   0   1   4  .000  .167  .000  .167
Ryan Zimmerman        6     6   2  0  0  0   0   0   3  .333  .333  .333  .666
Aaron Boone           3     2   2  1  0  0   0   0   0 1.000 1.000 1.500 2.500
Johnny Estrada        3     3   1  0  0  0   0   0   0  .333  .333  .333  .666
Austin Kearns         3     3   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  .000
Lastings Milledge     3     3   1  0  0  0   0   0   2  .333  .333  .333  .666
Willie Harris         2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   0  .000  .000  .000  .000
Shawn Hill            2     2   0  0  0  0   0   0   2  .000  .000  .000  .000
+-----------------+-------+---+---+--+--+--+---+---+---+-----+-----+-----+-----+
Total                79    70  14  2  0  2   4   7  23  .200  .291  .314  .605 

Edited by Omar

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Posted
So what are the odds Lilly has something resembling a (or, heaven forbid, a full-blown) 4th inning meltdown?

 

That's got to be a mental thing.

Taking a look at the stats, this could very well happen if he had to face Felipe Lopez two, three times in a row. Other than that, he should be fine.

Posted

Some worthless stats of the day for Sunday............

 

CUBS are 3-0 on Sundays

CUBS are 1-1 vs. Washington

CUBS are 4-3 vs. the NLE Division

CUBS are 3-1 when they've won their last 1 game(s) in a row

CUBS are 11-4 when they've won their previous game

CUBS are 6-2 in games that end a series

CUBS are 1-0 in games that end a road trip

CUBS are 1-1-1 in road series

CUBS are 9-5 in day games

CUBS are 10-4 at home

CUBS are 7-2 against lefties

CUBS are 6-4 when WGN broadcasts the game

CUBS are 12-5 when they don't allow any runs in the first inning.... 4-3 when they do

CUBS are 14-0 when they score at least 4 runs.... 2-8 when they don't

CUBS are 9-0 when they allow fewer than 4 runs.... 7-8 when they don't

CUBS are 15-2 when they outhit the opponents.... 0-6 when they get outhit.... and 1-0 when the hits are even

CUBS are 8-4 when they get a quality start.... 8-4 when they don't

CUBS are 5-7 when the opponent gets a quality start.... 11-1 when they don't

CUBS are 11-2 when they score first in the game.... 5-6 when they don't

CUBS are 5-1 when they score in the first inning.... 11-7 when they don't

CUBS are on a pace to win 108 games this year..... compared to 85 last year and 66 in '06 and 79 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to score 979 runs this year..... compared to 752 last year and 716 in '06 and 703 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to hit 182 home runs this year..... compared to 151 last year and 166 in '06 and 194 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to draw 729 walks this year..... compared to 500 last year and 395 in '06 and 419 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to strike out 114 times this year..... compared to 054 last year and 928 in '06 and 920 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to steal 128 bases this year..... compared to 87 last year and 121 in '06 and 64 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to ground into 81 double plays this year..... compared to 128 last year and 135 in '06 and 129 in '05

CUBS are on a pace to commit 115 errors this year..... compared to 94 last year and 104 in '06 and 100 in '05

CUBS are scoring 6.04 runs per game this year..... compared to 4.64 last year and 4.42 in '06 and 4.34 in '05

CUBS are seeing 3.91 pitches per plate appearance..... compared to 3.74 last year and 3.68 in '06 and 3.61 in '05

CUBS are driving in 19.9% of their baserunners..... compared to 18.9% last year and 20.0% in '06 and 18.4% in '05

CUBS are scoring 0.393 runs per baserunner this year..... compared to 0.364 last year and 0.370 in '06 and 0.365 in '05

CUBS are getting extra base hits at a 34.8% rate..... compared to 34.1% last year and 32.3% in '06 and 35.8% in '05

CUBS have won 13 of their last 18 games against left handed starters

CUBS have 3 GIDP in their last 15 games

CUBS have not Homered in their last 3 games, after homering in 5 in row

CUBS have been HBP 7 times in their last 7 games

CUBS have drawn at least 2 BB's in 14 straight games

 

CUBS are 2-3 when Lilly starts

Lilly is 1 of 5 in quality starts

Lilly has 1 consecutive quality start(s)

Lilly's ERA pitching to Soto is 9.95.... to Blanco it's 4.50

CUBS score 6.04 R/G overall.... 4.60 R/G when Lilly pitches

CUBS hit 1.13 HR/G overall.... 0.60 HR/G when Lilly pitches

 

CUBS' offensive support of Lilly.....

 

03/31 - 04/26      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
CUBS w/Lilly      182   23   47   10    0    3   66   22   29   33  0.258  0.362  0.363  0.724
CUBS overall      867  145  247   54    5   27  392  135  108  165  0.285  0.371  0.452  0.823

 

Composite scoring in games started by Lilly.........

 

                  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16    Total

CUBS              0   2   6   4   0   2   2   5   0   0   0   2   0   0   0   0      23
Opponents         1   2   0  10   4   6   4   4   2   0   0   0   0   0   0   0      33

 

Lilly's starts this year (1-3)

 

Lilly                   IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/02  vs. Milw        4.7    5    4    4    0    4    1    77  0.00  7.71  1.93  1.07  7.71
04/07  vs. Pitts       3.7    7    5    5    2    1    0    80  4.91  2.45  0.00  2.45 12.27
04/12  vs. Phila       4.3    7    5    5    2    3    2    86  4.15  6.23  4.15  2.08 10.38
04/17  vs. Cincy       6.0    6    5    5    3    6    1    94  4.50  9.00  1.50  1.50  7.50
04/22  vs. Mets        6.0    4    1    1    4    4    0   107  6.00  6.00  0.00  1.33  1.50

Home                  16.7   15   10   10    7   14    2   278  3.78  7.56  1.08  1.32  5.40
Road                   8.0   14   10   10    4    4    2   166  4.50  4.50  2.25  2.25 11.25

Day                   20.3   22   15   15    9   15    2   358  3.98  6.64  0.89  1.52  6.64
Nite                   4.3    7    5    5    2    3    2    86  4.15  6.23  4.15  2.08 10.38

Road  Day              3.7    7    5    5    2    1    0    80  4.91  2.45  0.00  2.45 12.27

season totals         24.7   29   20   20   11   18    4   444  4.01  6.57  1.46  1.62  7.30

 

 

Lilly's starts vs. Washington last year (1-0).....

 

Lilly                   IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
07/02  vs. Wash        7.0    3    1    1    3    5    0   115  3.86  6.43  0.00  0.86  1.29

season totals        207.0  181   91   88   55  174   28  3240  2.39  7.57  1.22  1.14  3.83

 

CUBS' bullpen load during the last week.....

 

              Sat        Fri        Thur       Wed        Tue        Mon        Sun           Totals
             26 Apr     25 Apr     24 Apr     23 Apr     22 Apr     21 Apr     20 Apr
             @ Wash     @ Wash     @ Colo     @ Colo     vs. Mets   vs. Mets   vs. Pitt
pitcher        IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit     IP Pit        IP Pit

Hart                                1.0  28               1.0  22                             2.0  50
Howry                    0.3  10               1.0  10    1.0  10               2.0  36       4.3  66
Lieber        1.0  14                          1.7  21                                        2.7  35
Marmol                   1.0  20               1.0  21    1.0  18    1.0   9                  4.0  68
Pignatiello                                                                                          
Wood                                           1.0  17               1.0   6                  2.0  23
Wuertz        1.0  16                          0.0   7                          1.0  27       2.0  50
Marshall                                       0.3   5                          1.0  18       1.3  23

Totals        2.0  30    1.3  30    1.0  28    5.0  81    3.0  50    2.0  15    4.0  81      18.3 315

 

CUBS' season series vs. Washington this year (1-1) .......

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
.23  Fri 04/25  @ Washington    N   3- 5  Dempster        Perez         
.24  Sat 04/26  @ Washington        7- 0  Zambrano        Chico         
.25  Sun 04/27  @ Washington         -    Lilly           Lannan        
128  Fri 08/22    Washington         -    Dempster        Redding       
129  Sat 08/23    Washington         -    Zambrano        Bergmann      
130  Sun 08/24    Washington         -    Lilly           Hill          

 

CUBS' season series vs. Washington last year (6-1).....

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
.27  Fri 05/04    Washington        6- 4  Zambrano        Bergmann      
.28  Sat 05/05    Washington        5- 3  Hill            Patterson     
.29  Sun 05/06    Washington        4- 3  Guzman          Hill          
.81  Mon 07/02  @ Washington        7- 2  Lilly           Simontacchi   
.82  Tue 07/03  @ Washington        3- 1  Zambrano        Redding       
.83  Wed 07/04  @ Washington        0- 6  Hill            Chico         
.84  Thu 07/05  @ Washington        4- 2  Marshall        Bergmann      

 

CUBS hitters vs. Washington this year.....

 

vs. Wash           AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA     RC   RBI%
Ramirez             8    1    4    2    0    0    3    2    0  0.500  0.600  0.750  1.350  0.500  4.20    3.6  0.333
D Lee               7    2    3    2    0    0    3    3    2  0.429  0.600  0.714  1.314  0.600  4.70    3.0  0.500
Theriot             8    2    4    1    0    0    1    2    0  0.500  0.600  0.625  1.225  0.500  2.90    3.0  0.500
Cedeno              8    0    3    2    0    0    0    0    2  0.375  0.375  0.625  1.000  0.500  3.50    1.9  0.000
Murton              0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    0  0.000  1.000  0.000  1.000  0.000  5.00    0.0  1.000
Johnson             7    4    3    0    0    0    0    0    2  0.429  0.500  0.429  0.929  0.600  3.88    1.5  0.000
Fukudome            8    0    2    1    0    0    0    1    2  0.250  0.333  0.375  0.708  0.333  4.33    1.0  0.000
DeRosa              7    0    2    0    0    0    2    1    2  0.286  0.375  0.286  0.661  0.400  3.78    0.8  0.400
Pie                 1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    1  0.000  0.500  0.000  0.500  0.000  4.00    0.0  0.000
Soto                8    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    8  0.000  0.111  0.000  0.111  0.000  4.44    0.0  0.000
Fontenot            2    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  3.00    0.0  0.000
Ward                1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  2.00    0.0  0.000

totals vw. Wash    71   10   21    8    0    0   10   11   21  0.296  0.405  0.408  0.813  0.420  3.84   11.7  0.200
season totals     867  145  247   54    5   27  135  108  165  0.285  0.371  0.452  0.823  0.326  3.91  145.4  0.199

 

CUBS pitchers vs. Washington this year year......

 

vs. Wash             IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Zambrano            7.0    5    0    0    4    5    0   114  5.14  6.43  0.00  1.29  0.00
Wuertz              1.0    0    0    0    1    1    0    16  9.00  9.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
Lieber              1.0    1    0    0    0    2    0    14  0.00 18.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
Marmol              1.0    1    0    0    2    1    0    20 18.00  9.00  0.00  3.00  0.00
Dempster            7.0    4    3    2    3    5    1   108  3.86  6.43  1.29  1.00  2.57
Howry               0.3    2    2    2    0    1    1    10  0.00 27.00 27.00  6.00 54.00

totals vs. Wash    17.3   13    5    4   10   15    2   282  5.19  7.79  1.04  1.33  2.08
season totals     225.0  200  103   93   84  169   24  3654  3.36  6.76  0.96  1.26  3.72

 

CUBS' last 10 games (7-3)..............

 

Gm#    Date       Opponent         Score  Starter         Opp Starter
.15  Thu 04/17    Cincinnati        2- 9  Lilly           Harang        
.16  Fri 04/18    Pittsburgh        3- 2  Hill            Snell         
.17  Sat 04/19    Pittsburgh       13- 1  Marquis         Gorzelanny    
.18  Sun 04/20    Pittsburgh       13- 6  Dempster        Duke          
.19  Mon 04/21    New York      N   7- 1  Zambrano        Maine         
.20  Tue 04/22    New York          8- 1  Lilly           Figueroa      
.21  Wed 04/23  @ Colorado      N   7- 6  Hill            Morales       
.22  Thu 04/24  @ Colorado          2- 4  Marquis         Cook          
.23  Fri 04/25  @ Washington    N   3- 5  Dempster        Perez         
.24  Sat 04/26  @ Washington    N   7- 0  Zambrano        Chico         

 

Composite scoring during the last 7 games.........

 

                  1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16    Total

CUBS              6   7   7  10   7   8   4  13   2   1   0   0   0   0   0   0      65
Opponents         3   1   0   3   4  11   4   5   4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0      35

 

CUBS' hitters during the last 10 games......

 

04/17 - 04/26      AB    R    H   2b   3b   HR  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP  P/PA     RC   RBI%
Ward                5    2    1    0    0    1    2    4    0  0.200  0.556  0.800  1.356  0.000  4.67    2.2  0.143
Ramirez            38    9   15    5    0    3   12    7    7  0.395  0.511  0.763  1.274  0.429  3.72   14.8  0.391
Cedeno             29    7   12    4    0    1   10    2    7  0.414  0.452  0.655  1.107  0.524  4.13    8.6  0.310
Soto               29    4   11    3    0    1    2    7   11  0.379  0.500  0.586  1.086  0.588  4.42    8.5  0.063
Pie                13    3    5    0    0    1    4    0    3  0.385  0.429  0.615  1.044  0.444  2.86    3.4  0.250
Theriot            36    8   15    3    1    0    4    4    3  0.417  0.475  0.556  1.031  0.455  3.18    9.5  0.364
D Lee              40    9   13    2    1    1    8    5    5  0.325  0.400  0.500  0.900  0.353  4.31    8.0  0.389
Fukudome           34    8   10    2    2    0    1    7    8  0.294  0.415  0.471  0.885  0.385  4.59    6.6  0.063
Johnson            36    8   13    2    0    0    3    2    3  0.361  0.452  0.417  0.869  0.394  4.07    6.8  0.136
Blanco              6    1    2    0    0    0    1    2    2  0.333  0.500  0.333  0.833  0.500  3.75    1.0  0.091
DeRosa             33    5    9    1    0    0    7    7    7  0.273  0.395  0.303  0.698  0.346  3.77    4.0  0.233
Murton             10    0    1    0    0    0    3    1    1  0.100  0.182  0.100  0.282  0.111  3.55    0.2  0.167
Fontenot           15    1    1    0    0    0    1    1    3  0.067  0.125  0.067  0.192  0.083  4.06    0.1  0.063
E Patterson         5    0    0    0    0    0    1    0    2  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000  3.60    0.0  0.167

last 10 games     353   65  110   23    4    8   61   50   67  0.312  0.407  0.467  0.874  0.367  3.90   67.1  0.209
season totals     867  145  247   54    5   27  135  108  165  0.285  0.371  0.452  0.823  0.326  3.91  145.4  0.199

 

CUBS' pitchers during the last 10 games......

 

04/17 - 04/26        IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
Zambrano           14.0   10    1    1    6    9    0   215  3.86  5.79  0.00  1.14  0.64
Marmol              6.0    3    1    1    3    9    1   112  4.50 13.50  1.50  1.00  1.50
Marquis            13.0   14    3    3    3   11    1   200  2.08  7.62  0.69  1.31  2.08
Hart                3.7    3    2    1    3    3    0    83  7.36  7.36  0.00  1.64  2.45
Hill               10.0    6    3    3    7    7    1   166  6.30  6.30  0.90  1.30  2.70
Wood                3.0    2    1    1    0    4    0    29  0.00 12.00  0.00  0.67  3.00
Marshall            2.7    1    1    1    1    2    0    27  3.38  6.75  0.00  0.75  3.38
Dempster           12.0    9    6    5    5    8    1   203  3.75  6.00  0.75  1.17  3.75
Lilly              12.0   10    6    6    7   10    1   201  5.25  7.50  0.75  1.42  4.50
Howry               5.0    6    4    3    0    6    2    70  0.00 10.80  3.60  1.20  5.40
Lieber              4.3    6    4    3    0    4    2    67  0.00  8.31  4.15  1.38  6.23
Wuertz              4.3    3    3    3    2    2    1    78  4.15  4.15  2.08  1.15  6.23

last 10 games      90.0   73   35   31   37   75   10  1451  3.70  7.50  1.00  1.22  3.10
season totals     225.0  200  103   93   84  169   24  3654  3.36  6.76  0.96  1.26  3.72

 

Patience is a virtue.........

 

03/31 - 04/26         BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    P   PA  P/PA
Ward               0.071  0.381  0.286  0.667  103   21  4.90
Fukudome           0.329  0.452  0.482  0.934  472  104  4.54
Cedeno             0.375  0.432  0.575  1.007  193   45  4.29
D Lee              0.366  0.430  0.673  1.103  470  114  4.12
Johnson            0.324  0.405  0.368  0.773  321   79  4.06
Soto               0.316  0.415  0.544  0.959  381   94  4.05
Ramirez            0.293  0.411  0.576  0.987  449  112  4.01
Fontenot           0.200  0.220  0.325  0.545  161   42  3.83
DeRosa             0.284  0.388  0.457  0.845  372   99  3.76
E Patterson        0.000  0.000  0.000  0.000   22    6  3.67
Theriot            0.337  0.406  0.465  0.871  344   97  3.55
Murton             0.100  0.182  0.100  0.282   39   11  3.55
Soriano            0.175  0.230  0.298  0.528  213   61  3.49
Pie                0.231  0.286  0.308  0.593  145   42  3.45
Blanco             0.357  0.438  0.357  0.795   54   16  3.38

CUBS               0.285  0.371  0.452  0.823 3933 1007  3.91

 

 

Percentage of baserunners driven in........

 

03/31 - 04/26      BDI  LOB   RBI%
D Lee               14   28  0.333
Cedeno              12   24  0.333
Johnson              9   24  0.273
Ramirez             13   41  0.241
DeRosa              14   49  0.222
Fukudome             8   30  0.211
Soto                11   44  0.200
Murton               3   15  0.167
Theriot              6   31  0.162
Pie                  5   29  0.147
E Patterson          1    7  0.125
Soriano              3   24  0.111
Fontenot             3   25  0.107
Ward                 1   11  0.083
Blanco               1   13  0.071

CUBS               108  434  0.199

 

 

 

 

 

CUBS' magic numbers:

 

Milwaukee     137
St. Louis     137
Houston       134
Pittsburgh    132
Cincinnati    132

 

 

 

Go CUBS !!!

 

 

 

© 2008, Fred W. Hornkohl

Posted
Lets hope Blanco plays.

 

Tribune

"He caught a shutout," Piniella said. "And he was shut out also. But listen, we teach our catchers here to carry the pitching staff first, and hitting is second. And he worked that to a T today. I've never seen a guy strike out eight times in eight at-bats.

 

"To his credit, he called a heck of a game. When he needed to steady Zambrano, he did his job. Like he told me after the game, 'We won, and that's what matters.' That's a nice statement from a young man, but I think we'll give him [sunday] off."

Posted
How many more players have to be thrown out before we can stop stealing third already?

 

Yeah, I'd like it if Cub baserunners could stop making Johnny Estrada look like Johnny Bench please.

Posted
How many more players have to be thrown out before we can stop stealing third already?

 

Yeah, I'd like it if Cub baserunners could stop making Johnny Estrada look like Johnny Bench please.

Nice. By the way, how bad was Lee's SB attempt at third? Did it look like Lou called that or that he tried it on a green light?

Posted
Nice. By the way, how bad was Lee's SB attempt at third? Did it look like Lou called that or that he tried it on a green light?

 

I can't imagine Lou would have called it in the 2nd inning, with the Cubs up by 5 and Aramis at the plate; my guess would be Lee running on his own. He was out by a fairly decent margin as close steal attempts go.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Normally I'd be certain that a lefty the Cubs have never faced would shut us out. This year I'm just worried. Big difference.
Posted
Cedeno better be starting

 

I see no reason why he wouldn't..the lineup will likely be close to the last two days..something like this:

 

Johnson

Theriot

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

DeRosa

Cedeno

Blanco

Lilly

Posted

Lannan tall lanky LH'er, struggles with command, throws a good two seamer (upper 80s) with sink and will throw a change to RH'ers. Doesn't have much of a breaking ball to LH'ers.

 

It wasn't often that I could say this before this year, I expect the Cubs to work deep counts against him.

 

The key of the game for the Cubs offense will be how well he keeps the ball down. If he's on, the Cubs will be rolling over the ball and grounding out to 3B and SS. Hopefully, all those DBs down the 3B line are an indication of what'll happen today.

 

If I was charting the game, I would note the location of his FB moreso than anything else.

Old-Timey Member
Posted

It'd be nice to leave April with a single digit in the Loss column.

 

EDIT: Wow, MLB.com says they've matched their highest April win total with 16.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
It'd be nice to leave April with a single digit in the Loss column.

 

EDIT: Wow, MLB.com says they've matched their highest April win total with 16.

 

That's impressive! And we aren't even clicking on all cylinders.

Posted
DC-area radio show last night was talking about how embarrassing/annoying it is to be out-louded in your own park. I'm looking forward to more of the same today. I've been surrounded in Cubs fans both games. Off to the park - let's see the series win, Cubs.
Posted
DC-area radio show last night was talking about how embarrassing/annoying it is to be out-louded in your own park. I'm looking forward to more of the same today. I've been surrounded in Cubs fans both games. Off to the park - let's see the series win, Cubs.

 

Have fun. Bring home a win!

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