Worried about Kosuke

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think PECOTA's projection looks pretty spot on:

 

289/401/504

 

Maybe a little better, but I think that's about right.

[rocket]

So almost 20 games into the season, how do you guys project Fuku's stat line to be?

 

.315/.420/.430 15 HRs 20 2Bs

 

I think that Fuk could hit more HRs if he sacrificed other parts of his game.

 

i'll say .285/.378/.450 with 40 doubles and 15 homers

[CoolHandLuke]

I just wanted to clarify that it is absolutely too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from Fukudome's stats, and really I just thought it interesting how opening day has affected fan perception.

 

Also, I intended for this to start a serious discussion about how the lack of power (in general, not really in Fukudome's specific case; I just used that as an anecdotal lead-in) can affect the ability to sustain IsoD. I don't have any specific examples off hand but it seems like there are often prospects who have consistently high OBPs as the climb the minor league ladder, who end up not walking that much as they face more advanced pitching due to a lack of power.

[jersey cubs fan]

I just wanted to clarify that it is absolutely too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from Fukudome's stats, and really I just thought it interesting how opening day has affected fan perception.

 

Also, I intended for this to start a serious discussion about how the lack of power (in general, not really in Fukudome's specific case; I just used that as an anecdotal lead-in) can affect the ability to sustain IsoD. I don't have any specific examples off hand but it seems like there are often prospects who have consistently high OBPs as the climb the minor league ladder, who end up not walking that much as they face more advanced pitching due to a lack of power.

 

Some guys walk more because pitchers pitch around their power. Guys like Fukudome walk because they have an incredible approach at the plate and a very good eye.

[Soul]

I'd be shocked if Fukudome's OBP drops sharply because pitchers are able to take advantage of a "lack of power" in some way. Too good an eye, and he's able to just foul off all kinds of good 2 strike pitches. Gets the bat on almost anything he wants to from what I've been able to observe.

 

I just don't see the holes in his strike zone to exploit. Maybe I'm wrong, it is a small sample size still.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I think he's going to see an OBP drop because eventually he'll have a long stretch where all those ground balls get hit at somebody instead of finding holes.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

He got a good drive on the double today.

[carolinacubbie]

3-3 today, not too worried, he loves playing at wrigley.

[CoolHandLuke]

I'm glad I fired Kosuke up enough with this post, for him to reveal his secret ability to get on base every single plate appearance.

[brinoch]

I'm glad I fired Kosuke up enough with this post, for him to reveal his secret ability to get on base every single plate appearance.

 

Whatever it takes, right? :wink:

[Peoriaman]

me too! Worried he may stop hitting!

[Tracer Bullet]

me too! Worried he may stop hitting!

 

seems like an odd concern, given his history.

[CuseCubFan69]

All he has to do is pretend that the ball is the guy that created those headbands and shirts and I'm sure the ball will be jumping off his bat.

[Roast]

me too! Worried he may stop hitting!

 

seems like an odd concern, given his history.

Yeah but he's a CUB now.

[TruffleShuffle]

I think he's going to see an OBP drop because eventually he'll have a long stretch where all those ground balls get hit at somebody instead of finding holes.

 

agreed, but his approach strikes me as a guy who will carry a pretty high BABIP. he's got amazing bat control and when he grounds one through a hole, one gets the impression that he was "trying to do that" moreso than your average player. he seems to know where the holes are and finds a way to guide the ball into them. The lack of power shouldn't be surprising given his approach, where his hips fly open and he tries more to hit line drives to a spot rather than driving the ball deep. i'm not suggesting that he'll end with a .400 BABIP, but i do think that he'll have a BABIP in the .340 to .350 range, and his OBP will end up around .400.