Can Theriot actually be adequate?

[UMFan83]

Well let's see...the Cubs seem high on him, the media seems high on him, no one seems to be mentioning that SS is a problem for the Cubs outside of this forum.

 

His aggregate numbers for the Cubs last year suck. .266/.326/.346/.672. Who can make any argument that Theriot will be worth anything this year?

 

I mentioned in another thread, if Theriot got hurt on August 26th last year, how many of us would be begging to remove a player who hit .288/.351/.376/.727 last year, which is where his numbers were at on 8/26? Most of us would agree that we can certainly look for an upgrade, but if we went into the season with him, it wouldn't be a huge deal. Of course Theriot hit .188/.236/.239/.475 from that point onward, so here we sit.

 

Is it even viable to suggest that a player like Theriot could tire and fade down the stretch? Is that something that can actually happen?

 

I am not trying to get all statistical on you, but look at Cub wet dream Brian Roberts:

 

CAREER

First Half - .295/.366/.422/.788

Second Half - .267/.335/.396/.731

 

CAREER

September - .257/.309/.386/.695

 

CAREER

Aggregate Stats - .281/.351/.409/.760

 

He shows similar fade tendencies.

 

I am not necessarily in favor of Theriot being our long term or even short term solution at SS. But after looking at the number, I figure it at least was worth an intelligent discussion.

 

For the record (and realizing how little relevance Spring numbers mean), Theriots spring numbers: .355/.375/.435/.810.

[CuseCubFan69]

Well let's see...the Cubs seem high on him, the media seems high on him, no one seems to be mentioning that SS is a problem for the Cubs outside of this forum.

 

His aggregate numbers for the Cubs last year suck. .266/.326/.346/.672. Who can make any argument that Theriot will be worth anything this year?

 

I mentioned in another thread, if Theriot got hurt on August 26th last year, how many of us would be begging to remove a player who hit .288/.351/.376/.727 last year, which is where his numbers were at on 8/26? Most of us would agree that we can certainly look for an upgrade, but if we went into the season with him, it wouldn't be a huge deal. Of course Theriot hit .188/.236/.239/.475 from that point onward, so here we sit.

 

Is it even viable to suggest that a player like Theriot could tire and fade down the stretch? Is that something that can actually happen?

 

I am not trying to get all statistical on you, but look at Cub wet dream Brian Roberts:

 

CAREER

First Half - .295/.366/.422/.788

Second Half - .267/.335/.396/.731

 

CAREER

September - .257/.309/.386/.695

 

CAREER

Aggregate Stats - .281/.351/.409/.760

 

He shows similar fade tendencies.

 

I am not necessarily in favor of Theriot being our long term or even short term solution at SS. But after looking at the number, I figure it at least was worth an intelligent discussion.

 

For the record (and realizing how little relevance Spring numbers mean), Theriots spring numbers: .355/.375/.435/.810.

 

Maybe if he is fadding, it's Lou's job to give him the proper rest. This is where DeRosa could come in handy if Roberts were acquired.

[Soul]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

[OleMissCub]

I'd rather see Cedeno at SS. He's got much more upside. I think we've seen the best of what Theriot can do.

[CuseCubFan69]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

[UMFan83]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

 

Exactly. The one of the real points for my original post is that we're stuck with Theriot. Instead of writing him off, is there a chance that he can be a positive?

[Soul]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

 

I'll grant you it's possible. He is closing in on 30, though. And I do think that matters.

[USSoccer]

His ceiling is replacement level. I doubt he reaches that. He'd be a fine backup IF. He's a liability getting 700 PA's.

[CuseCubFan69]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

 

I'll grant you it's possible. He is closing in on 30, though. And I do think that matters.

 

True. He could also be learning how to hit better with he coaches and closing those holes a little more. I'm not saying he will but he seems to work hard and is trying to get better. If the Riot can put up a 280/350 I'll be happy.

[Abe Frohman]

Personally, I like Theriot (largely because I am a LSU fan). I know that he can and probably will do better than a .326 OB%, and like mentioned above, before the September decline - he had pretty respectable numbers.

 

I am making the bold prediction that he will score 80-100 runs in 2008, and steal at least 30 bases, with an OB% over .350. If he starts stinking again, I am sure Lou will replace him with Cedeno or Fontenot, or whoever.

 

I'm pulling for him, and if he hurts the Cubs, I'm pulling for his replacement.

[NOLA]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

I agree on both points being plausible. He's had just one full season right? I am REALLY glad someone started this thread. I am not solidly behind Theriot either, but I do think he could be quite adequate. I never have understood the vitriol directed at him. I get both sides of this arguement, but Theriot has to this point been a better hitter than Cedeno, who really hasn't shown me much with alot of opportunities. Tons of potential has gone unrealized in this league, and tons of players playing over there heads have had nice careers. I am willing to see if Theriot, who for his shortcomings is a smart player, can become more consistent over the long haul. All that said I am a big fan of EPatt!

[jersey cubs fan]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

 

Exactly. The one of the real points for my original post is that we're stuck with Theriot. Instead of writing him off, is there a chance that he can be a positive?

 

No, there isn't.

 

There's a chance he might not hurt the team too bad, but that's the upside.

[bukie]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

I agree on both points being plausible. He's had just one full season right? I am REALLY glad someone started this thread. I am not solidly behind Theriot either, but I do think he could be quite adequate. I never have understood the vitriol directed at him. I get both sides of this arguement, but Theriot has to this point been a better hitter than Cedeno, who really hasn't shown me much with alot of opportunities. Tons of potential has gone unrealized in this league, and tons of players playing over there heads have had nice careers. I am willing to see if Theriot, who for his shortcomings is a smart player, can become more consistent over the long haul. All that said I am a big fan of EPatt!

 

So, it's not fair to judge Theriot based on one full season, but Cedeno has proven he can't hit based on one full season?

 

Those of us that think Cedeno is the better option are basing it on more than one full season, and the fact that Cedeno is much younger and has shown more development at a younger age.

[Abe Frohman]

I base my opinion of Cedeno on the fact that he never really hit big league pitching, but most importantly - he never developed a discipline at the plate. Even when he was ripping the cover off the ball in the minors, the guy k's way more than he walks.

 

There is still hope, though. Cedeno has fantastic tools and can learn to take a walk and get on base.

[NOLA]

So, it's not fair to judge Theriot based on one full season, but Cedeno has proven he can't hit based on one full season?

 

Those of us that think Cedeno is the better option are basing it on more than one full season, and the fact that Cedeno is much younger and has shown more development at a younger age.

I respect that. I never said Cedeno has proven he can't hit eventually. But at the MLB level, Theriot has hit better to this point. Again, I am NOT sold on him. But back to the question posed atop this thread, I think he has shown enough with the Cubs in his first season in the Majors to see if he can hit consistently and not just be a player who got on a hot streak. I hope he can be solid. If he fails, I am all for Cedeno, EPatt, or someone not here yet to take over. I just dislike the school of thought that he WILL fail, no doubt about it. This is no more certain than I am that he will be solid. I want to see how he does this year.

[CubbieBleu]

 

I'm pulling for him, and if he hurts the Cubs, I'm pulling for his replacement.

 

That's definitely the way to look at it. We can't be totally sure that he's going to need to be replaced unless we give him at least a bit of a shot. It's a moderate risk, and the organization should have a serious backup plan concerning Cedeno and others, but we shouldn't write Ryan off just yet.

Edited March 26, 2008 by CubbieBleu

[NOLA]

I base my opinion of Cedeno on the fact that he never really hit big league pitching, but most importantly - he never developed a discipline at the plate. Even when he was ripping the cover off the ball in the minors, the guy k's way more than he walks.

 

There is still hope, though. Cedeno has fantastic tools and can learn to take a walk and get on base.

.

[jmajew]

I'm of the belief that Theriot can be an average to slightly above average SS in the big leagues. He has an very good SO/K ratio, plays adequate defense, is an efficienct base stealer, and in his only full year in the big leagues played pretty admirably (other than his fade down the stretch). He deserves the chance again this year so lets give it to him.

 

If it is true that pitchers have figured him out he will struggle again fairly quickly, if that is the case Lou will do what has to be done. At this point in time I think we should give Theriot the benefit of the doubt, and work with the belief he faded down the stretch. Now if we were talking about trading for a starting SS or moving DeRosa to SS then I would say, let's bench him. But unfortunately it does not look we will be doing either.

 

I think we can expect at the low end for Theriot to put 265/330/350 this year and at the high end 290/360/400.

[daske17]

I'll grant you it's possible. He is closing in on 30, though. And I do think that matters.

 

As someone who's four months older than Theriot, I resent the statement he's "closing in on 30."

 

We're all younger than we think we are. :P

[Roast]

I'll grant you it's possible. He is closing in on 30, though. And I do think that matters.

 

As someone who's four months older than Theriot, I resent the statement he's "closing in on 30."

 

We're all younger than we think we are. :P

=D>

 

You're old.

[CubinNY]

I operate under the assumption that Theriot's numbers fell off a cliff because pitchers figured out how to work him.

 

His spring numbers really don't mean much. Roberts' dropoff isn't nearly the kind of "off the cliff" failure that Theriot's was/is.

 

That's possible and it's also possible that Theriot will work on his weaknesses and limit the holes.

 

Exactly. The one of the real points for my original post is that we're stuck with Theriot. Instead of writing him off, is there a chance that he can be a positive?

 

No, there isn't.

 

There's a chance he might not hurt the team too bad, but that's the upside.

That's exactly what I was going to write.

[fromthestretch]

I base my opinion of Cedeno on the fact that he never really hit big league pitching, but most importantly - he never developed a discipline at the plate. Even when he was ripping the cover off the ball in the minors, the guy k's way more than he walks.

 

There is still hope, though. Cedeno has fantastic tools and can learn to take a walk and get on base.

 

He hit well in his first callup in 2005. And his K/BB ratio was not bad at all at AAA. In 532 at-bats at that level, he had 50 BB and 77 strikeouts. Sure, you'd like to see him draw a few more walks, but it's not like he struck out 140 times.

[daske17]

I'll grant you it's possible. He is closing in on 30, though. And I do think that matters.

 

As someone who's four months older than Theriot, I resent the statement he's "closing in on 30."

 

We're all younger than we think we are. :P

=D>

 

You're old.

 

Kids just have no respect any more. Bunch of punks. :beee:

[fromthestretch]

I'm of the belief that Theriot can be an average to slightly above average SS in the big leagues. He has an very good SO/K ratio, plays adequate defense, is an efficienct base stealer, and in his only full year in the big leagues played pretty admirably (other than his fade down the stretch). He deserves the chance again this year so lets give it to him.

 

I'm curious why people keep saying he faded down the stretch. The only reason his numbers didn't look awful going into September was due to an insane July when he hit .348/.437/.483. That was the only month he posted an OPS over .700.

 

If it is true that pitchers have figured him out he will struggle again fairly quickly, if that is the case Lou will do what has to be done. At this point in time I think we should give Theriot the benefit of the doubt, and work with the belief he faded down the stretch. Now if we were talking about trading for a starting SS or moving DeRosa to SS then I would say, let's bench him. But unfortunately it does not look we will be doing either.

 

I think we can expect at the low end for Theriot to put 265/330/350 this year and at the high end 290/360/400.

 

Theriot never slugged .400 in the minors. I think it's a stretch to think he will in the majors.

[Abe Frohman]

Personally, I don't really care what Theriot's SLG is as long as he can get on base at .350 or better and score 100 runs, which isn't necessarily out of the question with this offense.

 

Theriot is never going to have a high SLG%, and I would be really surprised to see him hit more than 5 HR in any one season. He will hit some doubles, and steal some bases - and most importantly score some runs.

 

80 runs scored in your first full season is not bad for anyone, and that was with a .326 OB% that certainly will be improved upon.