2008 NCAA Tournament - Mock Selection/Discussion

[Guest]

Tennessee survives on a terrible shot by Lofton.

 

Details for those who follow on Gamecast, plz.

[bukie]

Tennessee survives on a terrible shot by Lofton.

 

Details for those who follow on Gamecast, plz.

 

All I know is that he took the shot with plenty of time left in the game, and left South Carolina with 14 seconds to come back on the other end.

[SouthSideRyan]

Not terrible like falling out of bounds against Winthrop terrible.

 

Terrible like dribble 4 feet outside the top of the key for awhile then chuck up a fade away 24 footer with 12 seconds on the clock.

[Derwood]

O$U and MSU tied at the half

[bukie]

Michigan State 67, Ohio State 60

Virginia Tech 63, Miami 49

 

Is Virginia Tech a viable at-large?

[Derwood]

Michigan State 67, Ohio State 60

Virginia Tech 63, Miami 49

 

Is Virginia Tech a viable at-large?

 

and is O$U out?

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm not sure Miami should be in at this point. VA Tech still has to beat whichever of the teams from Carolina teams is on their side of their bracket to be viable.

[Flames24Rulz]

Michigan State 67, Ohio State 60

Virginia Tech 63, Miami 49

 

Is Virginia Tech a viable at-large?

 

and is O$U out?

 

I think OSU should be out.

 

Not sure what to think of VT, but they're getting there. I still think they're on the wrong side of the bubble, but that certainly could change.

[Andy]

OSU should be out, and VT should be out unless they beat UNC.

[bukie]

Afternoon scores:

 

Oklahoma 54, Colorado 49

Arkansas 81, Vanderbilt 75

Memphis leads Southern Miss 44-31 midway through the second half.

American and Colgate are tied at 34 midway through the second half (Patriot League championship)

[ISUCubsFan]

San Deigo is missing from the teams that we need to rank that will be behind the at larges. I'll post more later tonight.

[CubColtPacer]

St. Joe's beat Xavier 61-53, officially making the A-10 at least a 2 bid league.

[bukie]

Right, I forgot about San Diego. So, it's the bottom 17 then, which works out nicely. 13-16 seeds.

[Andy]

With Purdue, IU, Vandy and Marquette all losing today, I think ND may be able to hold their 4 seed. It's sort of a jump ball between ND and Marquette resume-wise, and I think ND finishing tied for 2nd in the conference vs. 6th for Marquette might get them over the top despite losing 2/3 to the Golden Eagles.

[bukie]

American did end up winning, btw, to secure the first NCAA berth in school history.

 

Also, other scores throughout the day (since I actually took part in life this evening):

Illinois 74, Purdue 67

Minnesota 59, Indiana 58 (Illinois v Minnesota in the BT semis)

Temple 60, Charlotte 45 (Temple v St. Joe's for the auto bid)

Texas A&M 63, Kansas State 60

Kent State 49, Miami (OH) 47

BYU 63, SD State 54

Miss St. 69, Alabama 67

Pitt 68, Marquette 61

Georgetown 72, WVU 55

 

And, many of the higher seeded lower conference teams (Alabama State, Stephen F Austin, Utah State, UC Santa Barbara) lost in their conference tourney semis, so even weaker teams will represent those conferences.

[bukie]

Just waiting on one submission yet for top 16.

 

EDIT: No I'm not... :)

[ISUCubsFan]

Yeah, I'll try to post more on the bubble discussion tomorrow morining, but I didn't have much time today and keeping track of the Big 10 endings, every other low major #1 seed losing, and tornados took it all up. I wouldn't want to be on the real committee this year.

[bukie]

Compiling the top 16 and bottom 17 lists now...going to take a bit with so many contingencies...

 

Today's task (after I post the top 16/bottom 17):

 

Send the list of the middle 32 teams (17-48) from among the rest of the teams that are IN, on the bubble, and require auto bids (namely, A-10 bid, i.e. Temple/St. Joe's has to be in there somewhere, if not both)

[ISUCubsFan]

Here's what I have going into Saturday. Teams not "locked in" in my Thursday post got a short write up.

 

LOCKED IN (33):

 

North Carolina

Duke

Clemson

Wisconsin

Indiana

Purdue

Michigan State

Texas

Kansas

Georgetown

Louisville

Notre Dame

Connecticut

Marquette

Pittsburgh

West Virginia

UCLA

Stanford

Washington State

USC

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Mississippi State

Memphis

Xavier

Gonzaga

Saint Mary's

BYU

Miami (FL) - loss to Va. Tech wasn't great, but no one is going to pass them

Oklahoma - in for sure now

Kansas State - same as Miami

Kent State - finals + everyone else losing locks them in

Arkansas - locked in now

 

SHOULD BE IN (4):

 

Kentucky - Georgia loss could hurt, but they were ahead of most teams before

South Alabama - should be in now with the entire bubble lossing, a lock for us

UNLV - MWC final is more than others have done

Texas A&M - a bubble team actually winning?

 

+ SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (7):

 

Baylor - bad loss to CU, but not enough teams will pass them to knock them out

St. Joe's - huge Xavier win puts them in for now, but winning the A14 is recommended

Arizona - SOS + RPI keeps them in still, but they're 17-14

Villanova - more solid wins than the other teams on the bubble

Illinois State - weak resume, but everyone behind them has few quality wins or a terrible RPI

Temple - did what they had to, but might fall out again if they lose today

Arizona State - I like their profile, but a RPI of 75+ would be close to a record for an at large

 

- SIDE OF THE BUBBLE (5):

 

Oregon - ASU with better computer numbers but no Xavier win

VCU - still need more help, going to be close though

Virginia Tech - very few good wins means they probably need to beat UNC today

UMass - Charlotte loss kills, probably outside looking in for good

Dayton - RPI gives them a chance, but they've been too bad in 2008

 

ALL BUT DEAD (7):

 

Ohio State - needed to beat more top teams than they did

New Mexico - need to pull an Air Force-like bid from a few years ago

Florida State - probably out

Florida - out

Mississippi - out

Syracuse - out

Maryland - out

 

I don't think the number of bids changed from Thursday, but that could change (I'm looking at you Illinois/Minnesota). Every category (except LOCKED IN) is in order, but don't be surprised if I change it up by tonight.

[bukie]

Results of Friday, March 14:

 

So, rather than having a distinct 16, it appears we have a solid top 14 of

 

1. North Carolina

2. UCLA

3. Memphis

4. Tennessee

5. Kansas (for now)

6. Duke

7. Texas (for now)

8. Georgetown

9. Wisconsin

10. Stanford

11. Xavier

12. Louisville

13. Drake

14. Butler

 

As for the bottom seeds (13-16...#49-65 overall):

 

49. Oral Roberts

50. George Mason

51. San Diego

52. Siena

53. Cornell

54. WAC (New Mexico St.)

55. Big West (CS Fullerton)

56. Winthrop

57. Belmont

58. Austin Peay

59. America East (UMBC)

60. American

61. Portland State

62. MEAC (Morgan St.)

63. Mount St. Mary's

64. Southland (TX-Arlington)

65. SWAC (Miss. Valley St.)

 

Posted the results of Friday. Since there was quite a discrepancy among the last 2 4 seeds (15 and 16), send me the other 34 teams instead of 32, essentially teams 15-48 (you can rank them 1-34 if it's easier, just don't include the teams above).

 

Other teams that are IN and not listed (19):

Clemson

Indiana

Purdue

Michigan State

Kansas State

Pittsburgh

Marquette

Connecticut

Notre Dame

West Virginia

Washington St.

Vanderbilt

Gonzaga

St. Mary's

BYU

Mississippi St.

South Alabama

Oklahoma

USC

 

Other auto bids:

Atlantic 10 (St. Joe's/Temple) - Might be good to wait to send me the list until this game is over, so you know who is in automatically.

Davidson

Western Kentucky

MAC (Kent St./Akron)

 

Other bubble teams:

Arizona

Arizona State

Arkansas

Baylor

California

Creighton

Dayton

Florida

Florida State

Houston

Illinois State

Kentucky

Kent State

Maryland

Massachusetts

Miami-Florida

Minnesota

Mississippi

Nebraska

New Mexico

Ohio State

Oregon

Rhode Island

Southern Illinois

St. Joseph's

Syracuse

Temple

Texas A&M

Texas Tech

UAB

UNLV

Villanova

Virginia Commonwealth

Virginia Tech

Wake Forest

 

Other non-bubble teams that could potentially steal a bid:

Georgia

Illinois

Minnesota

[bukie]

So, if Illinois wins, where do you put them?

 

Numbers of the single-bid conference teams (Kenpom, RPI, KP RPI)

Oral Roberts - 81,62,52

George Mason - 92,64,62

Siena - 113,78,67

Cornell - 131,68,65

San Diego - 117,96,94

Big West - CS Fullerton - 120,90,86

Belmont - 159,77,79

Am East - Maryland BC - 148,88,91

American - 161,91,89

Austin Peay - 170,82,84

Portland State - 174,95,88

WAC - New Mexico State - 91,121,118

Winthrop - 111,110,107

Mount St. Mary's - 168,167,159

MEAC - Morgan State - 180,126,115

Southland - Northwestern State - 268,223,187

SWAC - Mississippi Valley State - 321,247,239

 

Illinois - 40, 137, 112

 

Do you put them above all these teams as a 12, or do you make them a very dangerous 13-14 seed? Or maybe make them play in the play-in game as a below-.500 teams and make them a dangerous 16 seed? :)

[ISUCubsFan]

So, if Illinois wins, where do you put them?

 

Numbers of the single-bid conference teams (Kenpom, RPI, KP RPI)

Oral Roberts - 81,62,52

George Mason - 92,64,62

Siena - 113,78,67

Cornell - 131,68,65

San Diego - 117,96,94

Big West - CS Fullerton - 120,90,86

Belmont - 159,77,79

Am East - Maryland BC - 148,88,91

American - 161,91,89

Austin Peay - 170,82,84

Portland State - 174,95,88

WAC - New Mexico State - 91,121,118

Winthrop - 111,110,107

Mount St. Mary's - 168,167,159

MEAC - Morgan State - 180,126,115

Southland - Northwestern State - 268,223,187

SWAC - Mississippi Valley State - 321,247,239

 

Illinois - 40, 137, 112

 

Do you put them above all these teams as a 12, or do you make them a very dangerous 13-14 seed? Or maybe make them play in the play-in game as a below-.500 teams and make them a dangerous 16 seed? :)

 

Good question since there's not much precedence for a BCS team with a losing record making the field. They're behind the top 5 on the list for sure, but after that you can make an argument for them since they'll be up against other teams with crappy losses and Illinois has better wins. Probably a 14, or maybe a 15. I'll come up with something more exact if it happens.

[bukie]

Memphis snags the C-USA bid by beating Tulsa 77-51.

UMBC takes the America East crown beating Hartford 82-65.

Georgia beats Kentucky in OT, 60-58. Georgia can still steal a bid, but it will be very, very difficult.

[Exile on Waveland]

Ohio State is in much, much better shape than "all but dead." In fact, they might even be in the tournament as of this moment. Not sure they end up in it, but they're certainly alive.

[bukie]

Ohio State is in much, much better shape than "all but dead." In fact, they might even be in the tournament as of this moment. Not sure they end up in it, but they're certainly alive.

 

Yeah, I was going through the remaining bids, and there are a lot more bids available than it seems. If all the teams people said were out were actually out, there'd only be about 50 teams in the tournament.