Is Sean Gallagher the next Fausto Carmona?

[badnews]

For the fun of drawing parallels of minor league numbers that may cause a double take (Everyone enjoys the comparisons of the minor league career of perennial offensive deadweight Jose Lopez and Miguel Tejada, or Johan Santana and everyone), I've found the similarities between the numbers of Gallagher and Carmona interesting.

 

Carmona and Gallagher have put up some similar career numbers, with Gallagher coming out ahead in some surprising categories. The first thing people will jump on here is Gallagher's higher walk rates. Gallagher does beat Carmona handily in the K/9 category though, which leads us to one fallacy: people look at Carmona's major league G/F ratio and assume his K/9 was low in the minors because of his G/F ratio, yet Gallagher and Carmona's G/F ratio in the minors are surprisingly similar. Carmona was not a 3.28 G/F ratio guy in the minors. Most years I kept up with him, he was a 1.60-1.80 G/F ratio pitcher, right in Gallagher territory.

 

It's worth mentioning that no one thought Carmona would dominate AL hitters the way he has. Carmona's lone appearance on Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects List was at #76, and on all his appearances on the Indians' Top 10 Prospects Lists he ranked behind some less-than-stellar talent, like Brad Snyder.

 

Both Gallagher and Carmona hit the same levels at around the same age, and both of them got bombed as relievers in their first go-around with their respective clubs.

 

Now, I'm not saying Gallagher will have the success Carmona has had. Carmona has been nothing short of fantastic and it comes as quite a surprise. This topic title is meant more as an eyecatch for how legitimate a case Gallagher has made. But my point is, I've seen Gallagher's name bandied about in some mediocre trade proposals, and most people's offseason wishes seem to be elaborate schemes to make sure we never have to give Gallagher a shot. I hope we don't continue this bullpen long man nonsense and give him a legitimate shot in the rotation to see what he has.

[rawaction]

I moved this to Baseball Discussions, because I feel it could be an interesting discussion and may get missed in the minors forum.

 

 

There are some similarities between Gallagher and Carmona. Not too much difference in size. Both feature sinking 2-seamers. But there are some stark contrasts. Carmona's #2 pitch is a slider, Gallagher throws a curve. Carmona's command has always been one of his assets, Gallagher has shown signs of great command, but has had some inconsistencies, in particular in his 2 AA stints. Carmona gets in trouble when he tries to be too fine with his control. Gallagher gets in trouble when he tries not to, and challenges hitters too much. Most important, is probably velocity. Carmona throws a hard sinker about 93-95. Gallagher's is not as hard around 89-91. Sean can get it up to 95, but loses a ton of movement when he does so. The difference in velocity is important as a harder sinker is harder for a hitter to get underneath and elevate.

 

Actually, some guys who Gallagher share(s/d) a lot of similarity with are Jake Peavy and young Greg Maddux. He has a similar repetoire to both (sinker, curve, change, developing slider). He has shown Maddux like durability. And scouts rave about his "knowledge" of pitching.

 

I like Gallagher a lot. But at this point, Kevin Hart probably gives the Cubs just as much. Long-term, I think Gallagher could be the better pitcher, though. I think the Cubs can and should trade 2 of Gallagher, Marshall, Hart for a bat of some sort (I think 2 can net Renteria). The remaining P opens the season as the #5 and at worst competes with Prior, Veal, Holliman, and others later in the year to keep that spot.

Edited October 13, 2007 by rawaction

[E.J.]

I really like Gallagher and think he can be a good #2 or #3 starter for us if he ever gets a chance. He's been young for his league every year and has put up great numbers. I just worry he's either going to get traded this offseason or he's going to be relegated to the long-man in the bullpen next year. Another reason I want the sale of the Cubs to go through as soon as possible.

 

I think the ideal situation is to have Marshall, Hart, and Gallagher all battle it out for the 5th spot in the rotation in the spring. I also wouldn't mind seeing Marshall traded as part of a package to bring in a outfield bat, Hart put in the bullpen in a bigger role, and Gallagher in the 5th spot in the rotation.

[KingCubsFan]

This is why you need more than numbers when comparing prospects. While it wasn't expected that Carmona would be a Cy Young contender and one of the best pitchers in the league, he always had a high ceiling and was projectable with a mid-90's sinker. Gallagher is a different pitcher, who doesn't throw consistently as hard and doesn't really have a plus pitch. I hope Gallagher becomes Carmona, but I think they're entirely different.

[Guest]

This is why you need more than numbers when comparing prospects. While it wasn't expected that Carmona would be a Cy Young contender and one of the best pitchers in the league, he always had a high ceiling and was projectable with a mid-90's sinker. Gallagher is a different pitcher, who doesn't throw consistently as hard and doesn't really have a plus pitch. I hope Gallagher becomes Carmona, but I think they're entirely different.

 

I think Sean's curve is a plus pitch. I agree that I don't like the comparison.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I like Gallagher a lot. I do think the Cubs should make a deal this offseason, but I hope we trade from the Marshall, Veal, Holliman group and hang on to Sean.

[nolanwood]

His minor league #'s are great, but I was unimpressed with the 14ER in 14.2 innings at the big league level this year.

[Warpticon]

His minor league #'s are great, but I was unimpressed with the 14ER in 14.2 innings at the big league level this year.

 

Really? You weren't impressed with that?

[NonProfitCow]

His minor league #'s are great, but I was unimpressed with the 14ER in 14.2 innings at the big league level this year.

 

Really? You weren't impressed with that?

 

I was, then again I was watching Mike Maroth quite a bit so...

[CubinNY]

His minor league #'s are great, but I was unimpressed with the 14ER in 14.2 innings at the big league level this year.

Typical Cub fan.

 

Greg Maddux's first year

W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
2   4   6   5   1   0   1  0   31.0   44   20   19   3   11   20   1   2   144   2   0  5.52  4.06   74 1.774

[Keener98]

His minor league #'s are great, but I was unimpressed with the 14ER in 14.2 innings at the big league level this year.

 

Yea those 14 innings tell us nothing at all

[badnews]

This is what frustrates me. We are indulging in revisionism too much in this topic. Seriously, does no one remember all the now-scrubs Carmona was ranked behind throughout his minor league career? Anyone have a copy of the past few Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and read up on Carmona? Nowhere is his awesome 95 mph sinker mentioned.

 

I'd like two things addressed:

 

1) If Carmona's velocity was this great in the minors, why does Gallagher's K/9 put his to shame? Keeping in mind their G/F ratios were similar in the minors.

 

2) If Carmona's sinker was so much better, why wasn't his G/F ratio much better in the minors?

 

There's only one explanation that fits, to me. Carmona added velocity or pulled something new out of his pocket. Because a guy with a 95 mph sinker in the minors doesn't put up 1.80 G/F ratios in the minors and give up more hits, home runs, and get fewer strikeouts than the guy with the above-ascribed worse stuff.

 

As for the guy who complained about Gallagher's 2007 numbers, here are Carmona was poor in 74 innings in 2006, and in his first 17 innings he posted a 7.94 ERA. Not impressive, eh?

 

As I stated in my first point, the point was not so much that Gallagher and Carmona were terribly alike, but that it's possible Gallagher can make a tremendous jump. If you have the old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks, read up on the old Carmona descriptions and be struck by the similar moderation in them.

 

As for Hart, I have little confidence in him. He's my bet for the David Aardsma/Rocky Cherry of next year, the guy that everyone expects too much out of based on too little. I'd rather have Gallagher than Hart. Of course I'd rather stay away from Renteria too but that's another story.

[NewUserName]

His minor league #'s are great, but I was unimpressed with the 14ER in 14.2 innings at the big league level this year.

Typical Cub fan.

 

Greg Maddux's first year

W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP  IBB  BK  ERA *lgERA *ERA+ WHIP
2   4   6   5   1   0   1  0   31.0   44   20   19   3   11   20   1   2   144   2   0  5.52  4.06   74 1.774

 

 

I remember a lot of fans wanting to get rid of Maddux when he was a rookie.

[KingCubsFan]

This is what frustrates me. We are indulging in revisionism too much in this topic. Seriously, does no one remember all the now-scrubs Carmona was ranked behind throughout his minor league career? Anyone have a copy of the past few Baseball America Prospect Handbooks and read up on Carmona? Nowhere is his awesome 95 mph sinker mentioned.

 

I'd like two things addressed:

 

1) If Carmona's velocity was this great in the minors, why does Gallagher's K/9 put his to shame? Keeping in mind their G/F ratios were similar in the minors.

 

2) If Carmona's sinker was so much better, why wasn't his G/F ratio much better in the minors?

 

There's only one explanation that fits, to me. Carmona added velocity or pulled something new out of his pocket. Because a guy with a 95 mph sinker in the minors doesn't put up 1.80 G/F ratios in the minors and give up more hits, home runs, and get fewer strikeouts than the guy with the above-ascribed worse stuff.

 

As for the guy who complained about Gallagher's 2007 numbers, here are Carmona was poor in 74 innings in 2006, and in his first 17 innings he posted a 7.94 ERA. Not impressive, eh?

 

As I stated in my first point, the point was not so much that Gallagher and Carmona were terribly alike, but that it's possible Gallagher can make a tremendous jump. If you have the old Baseball America Prospect Handbooks, read up on the old Carmona descriptions and be struck by the similar moderation in them.

 

As for Hart, I have little confidence in him. He's my bet for the David Aardsma/Rocky Cherry of next year, the guy that everyone expects too much out of based on too little. I'd rather have Gallagher than Hart. Of course I'd rather stay away from Renteria too but that's another story.

 

From 2006: Carmona enjoyed increased velocity in AAA, jumping up to 93-94 while topping out at 96...Carmona still doesn't miss a lot of bats and probably never will. But someone with his stuff shouldn't be nearly as hittable as he has been in the upper minors...Carmona has the necessary pitches to be a frontline starter, but he still has plenty of development remaining...

 

Even with the increased velocity, his peripherals still weren't very good in AAA. This is pretty much what they said about him every year: his stuff is good but he doesn't miss a lot of bats. Gallagher's scouting reports are entirely different. Numbers aren't the entire story for most prospects.

[UK1679666180]

They're different styles of pitchers combined with diff. arm strength, diff. arm slots (IIRC), diff. pitches, diff. secondary pitches etc.

 

There's more of a comparison between Gallagher and Byrd (despite) Byrd throwing anywhere from 5-10 MPH slower with better command.

[SAMMYWHO]

Someone explain the no love for Veal. I follow I-Cubs sort of close but lack the knowledge of the lower levels. Wasn't Donnie Veal our # 2 prospect before this year? Is his ceiling still pretty high? Thanks in advance.

[Outshined_One]

Someone explain the no love for Veal. I follow I-Cubs sort of close but lack the knowledge of the lower levels. Wasn't Donnie Veal our # 2 prospect before this year? Is his ceiling still pretty high? Thanks in advance.

 

I'll do the bad and the good with Veal...

 

The Bad: His control and mechanics are completely out of whack. He has some really good pure stuff, but he has a lot of trouble harnessing it. Part of the advantage he has had so far is that most guys in the low minors aren't used to that kind of pure stuff. As he's advanced, better hitters have been able to make him pay. There's also an injury history with him, but he doesn't seem to have been bothered by anything since joining the Cubs.

 

The Good: As mentioned above, he has really good stuff. When his mechanics are working, he has a good fastball and a nice curve to complement it. He's received Vida Blue comparisons, so his ceiling is really nice.

 

We'll see what happens with him, but these kinds of guys normally don't hit their ceilings. I'd put him behind Gallagher and Samardzija on the pitching prospect list at this point.

[rawaction]

Someone explain the no love for Veal. I follow I-Cubs sort of close but lack the knowledge of the lower levels. Wasn't Donnie Veal our # 2 prospect before this year? Is his ceiling still pretty high? Thanks in advance.

 

yeah, still has a high ceiling, but he took a step backwards control-wise at least in the beginning of the year. He's still throws hard with his left hand and has a good #2 pitch.

[Guest]

Someone explain the no love for Veal. I follow I-Cubs sort of close but lack the knowledge of the lower levels. Wasn't Donnie Veal our # 2 prospect before this year? Is his ceiling still pretty high? Thanks in advance.

 

I'll do the bad and the good with Veal...

 

The Bad: His control and mechanics are completely out of whack. He has some really good pure stuff, but he has a lot of trouble harnessing it. Part of the advantage he has had so far is that most guys in the low minors aren't used to that kind of pure stuff. As he's advanced, better hitters have been able to make him pay. There's also an injury history with him, but he doesn't seem to have been bothered by anything since joining the Cubs.

 

The Good: As mentioned above, he has really good stuff. When his mechanics are working, he has a good fastball and a nice curve to complement it. He's received Vida Blue comparisons, so his ceiling is really nice.

 

We'll see what happens with him, but these kinds of guys normally don't hit their ceilings. I'd put him behind Gallagher and Samardzija on the pitching prospect list at this point.

Ceiling: Sam > Veal > Sean

Likelihood of providing good value: Sean > Sam > Veal

[Outshined_One]

Ceiling: Sam > Veal > Sean

Likelihood of providing good value: Sean > Sam > Veal

 

That works. :D

[JGalt73]

RHP Sean Gallagher, Mesa Solar Sox (Cubs)

 

Gallagher continued to impress Cubs brass this season, putting up a 3.10 ERA between the organization’s Double- and Triple-A affiliates while limiting opposing hitters to a lowly .233 batting average and just four home runs. While he wasn’t nearly that success in a couple of brief big league stints, allowing 15 runs in 14 2/3 innings, he’s now in Arizona, and working on making a fresh start next year. In his first three innings, Gallagher has allowed just one hit while striking out four, a difficult task in the hitting-friendly environs of the AFL. He’ll likely go to camp next year with a real chance at a big league job, and his long-term role remains a valuable, durable, middle-of-the-rotation starter.

[BDWeav71]

I feel he has a legitimate chance of being our 5th starter out of the gates next season.

[Guest]

As for Hart, I have little confidence in him. He's my bet for the David Aardsma/Rocky Cherry of next year, the guy that everyone expects too much out of based on too little. I'd rather have Gallagher than Hart. Of course I'd rather stay away from Renteria too but that's another story.

 

Hart's pitch aresenal is way better than that of Aardsma or Cherry and hopefully his FB velocity isn't as sporadic as those two's were.

 

By the way, looking at those old Fausto Carmona descriptions actually remind me of Jeff Samardzia. Raw and unfinished, sinking pitches, throws hard, has the necessary pitches to be a frontline starter, shouldn't be as hittable as he is. Hopefully Samardzija can make the adjustments that Carmona made.

[Guest]

As for Hart, I have little confidence in him. He's my bet for the David Aardsma/Rocky Cherry of next year, the guy that everyone expects too much out of based on too little. I'd rather have Gallagher than Hart. Of course I'd rather stay away from Renteria too but that's another story.

 

Hart's pitch aresenal is way better than that of Aardsma or Cherry and hopefully his FB velocity isn't as sporadic as those two's were.

 

By the way, looking at those old Fausto Carmona descriptions actually remind me of Jeff Samardzia. Raw and unfinished, sinking pitches, throws hard, has the necessary pitches to be a frontline starter, shouldn't be as hittable as he is. Hopefully Samardzija can make the adjustments that Carmona made.

That's a much better comp, imo.

[Laura]

RHP Sean Gallagher, Mesa Solar Sox (Cubs)

 

Gallagher continued to impress Cubs brass this season, putting up a 3.10 ERA between the organization’s Double- and Triple-A affiliates while limiting opposing hitters to a lowly .233 batting average and just four home runs. While he wasn’t nearly that success in a couple of brief big league stints, allowing 15 runs in 14 2/3 innings, he’s now in Arizona, and working on making a fresh start next year. In his first three innings, Gallagher has allowed just one hit while striking out four, a difficult task in the hitting-friendly environs of the AFL. He’ll likely go to camp next year with a real chance at a big league job, and his long-term role remains a valuable, durable, middle-of-the-rotation starter.

 

GALLAGHER!