Is anyone else worried we might be toast?

[Stu]

Sorry if I come off like a Negative Nancy, Debbie Downer, etc.

But I am really concerned at this point. The Brewers are already ahead of the Cubs in the loss column and close the season at home, where they have been one of the best teams in baseball. The Cubs close against Cincy, who always plays them tough. I really see the Brewers as being the favorites right now.

[Brian]

I've been worried about that since April.

[Mephistopheles]

i guess it didnt occur to you that in order to get ahead of us the Brewers would have to win two games, which the odds of happening are <.52*.52 which is about 25%.

 

Ive never understood looking at the L column. It's stupid.

[SouthSideRyan]

Worried in the sense that I'm always worried about the Cubs. I'd still peg as slightly better than 50-50 to win the division.

[3Dog]

80% of me believes it'll end in a one-game playoff, 10% the Cubs winning outright, and the last 10% the Brewers winning outright.

[C.C.]

Don't worry yet...

 

In fact, if I'm the Brewers I'm worried. Padres and Braves aren't going to lay down. Both are playing for something. They have 8 games with them.

Edited September 19, 2007 by C.C.

[abuck1220]

i've never got the whole loss column thing.

[C.C.]

i've never got the whole loss column thing.

 

Whew. I'm glad I'm not the only one.

[Tracer Bullet]

We cheer for the Cubs. Why would we be concerned that our team would collapse? When has that ever happened?

[Soul]

Neither did I (understand the loss column thing).

 

What I do hope for is the fact that the Cubs have 2 days off and the Crew plays straight through, all the way. A couple nights where they need to use that bullpen heavily could help because they won't be able to breathe.

 

It's just a dead heat right now and I will admit that I'm concerned. But like others I've been concerned about this bunch from day 1. They're outperforming my pre-season expectations.

[Derwood]

i've never got the whole loss column thing.

 

Whew. I'm glad I'm not the only one.

 

it's just people's roundabout way of saying "the Brewers play two more games than us, thus have two more chances to add wins than we do"

[kente777]

i've never got the whole loss column thing.

 

Whew. I'm glad I'm not the only one.

 

it's just people's roundabout way of saying "the Brewers play two more games than us, thus have two more chances to add wins than we do"

 

Yes. At this point it means absolutely nothing unless one thinks the Brewers will win the rest of their games.

 

Now, two up in the loss column with 3 games to play....Ok, now I'm concerned.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't understand what people don't get about the loss column thing.

[Derwood]

I don't understand what people don't get about the loss column thing.

 

i know. it's not that hard:

 

- If the Cubs lose 5 more games and the Brewers lose 5 more games, the Cubs don't make the playoffs.

 

there, simple, eh?

[erik316wttn]

I'm a Cub fan.

 

I'm ALWAYS worried. In fact, I'll be worried if/until the Cubs actually clinch and every other team is mathematically eliminated. Then I'll stop worrying, but not until.

[SouthSideRyan]

i guess it didnt occur to you that in order to get ahead of us the Brewers would have to win two games, which the odds of happening are <.52*.52 which is about 25%.

 

Ive never understood looking at the L column. It's stupid.

 

It's small but the Brewers have a better chance of gaining ground on us in those 2 games than they do losing ground. It's not statistically insignificant.

[kente777]

Don't worry yet...

 

In fact, if I'm the Brewers I'm worried. Padres and Braves aren't going to lay down. Both are playing for something. They have 8 games with them.

 

I agree. 8 games against two very tough teams. I feel pretty good about our chances.

[Soul]

I don't understand what people don't get about the loss column thing.

 

i know. it's not that hard:

 

- If the Cubs lose 5 more games and the Brewers lose 5 more games, the Cubs don't make the playoffs.

 

there, simple, eh?

 

And if they don't then it doesn't mean anything. So what's the point?

[circlecitycub]

The thing with the loss column is that if two teams are tied in that regard then one team can prevent themselves from being eliminated if they just win their games. If they trail in the loss cloumn then they have to hope for the other team to lose as well as winning their own games.

[inari]

The thing with the loss column is that if two teams are tied in that regard then one team can prevent themselves from being eliminated if they just win their games. If they trail in the loss cloumn then they have to hope for the other team to lose as well as winning their own games.

 

I'd say the loss column really matters when we have less games to play, few enough that the Brewers would realistically win the remainder of them. Looking at the schedule, it wouldn't be at all surprising if the Brewers lose on both of our offdays, negating the loss column advantage.

 

The odds are still in our favor to win this division. If we don't win it, it's certainly not because of anything but the Cubs not getting it done.

[Soul]

The thing with the loss column is that if two teams are tied in that regard then one team can prevent themselves from being eliminated if they just win their games. If they trail in the loss cloumn then they have to hope for the other team to lose as well as winning their own games.

 

I'd say the loss column really matters when we have less games to play, few enough that the Brewers would realistically win the remainder of them. Looking at the schedule, it wouldn't be at all surprising if the Brewers lose on both of our offdays, negating the loss column advantage.

 

The odds are still in our favor to win this division. If we don't win it, it's certainly not because of anything but the Cubs not getting it done.

 

I guess I can see that, with just a few games remaining, it comes into focus a bit more.

[kente777]

The thing with the loss column is that if two teams are tied in that regard then one team can prevent themselves from being eliminated if they just win their games. If they trail in the loss cloumn then they have to hope for the other team to lose as well as winning their own games.

 

I'd say the loss column really matters when we have less games to play, few enough that the Brewers would realistically win the remainder of them. Looking at the schedule, it wouldn't be at all surprising if the Brewers lose on both of our offdays, negating the loss column advantage.

 

Ding, Ding, Ding. We have a winner. :)

 

The Brewers do not have a realistic chance of winning out (not that a team can't win 12 in a row, but the Brewers have been inconsisten all year long) so therefore, the loss column is meaningless at this point in time.

 

Ken

Edited September 19, 2007 by kente777

[nilodnayr]

BP has us at a 55.44309% chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, yesterday was a rough day... we lost 15.97812%.

[kente777]

BP has us at a 55.44309% chance of making the playoffs. Unfortunately, yesterday was a rough day... we lost 15.97812%.

 

Where is that link? thanks.

[nilodnayr]

i guess it didnt occur to you that in order to get ahead of us the Brewers would have to win two games, which the odds of happening are <.52*.52 which is about 25%.

 

Ive never understood looking at the L column. It's stupid.

 

It's small but the Brewers have a better chance of gaining ground on us in those 2 games than they do losing ground. It's not statistically insignificant.

 

Their chance of winning both games is .52^2=27%

Their chance of losing both games is .48^2=23%

Hence, their chance of gaining ground over losing it is 4%