Marquis has done what he was signed to do

[bukie]

I think a lot of the negative reaction from fans is from that fact that every time he has a bad start, fans start to expect his season to go downhill and his numbers to look like last years. No one liked this signing, and everyone was/is waiting for him to fail. When this season is over, people will look at his numbers and realize that he had a pretty good season for a 4th/5th starter and even though he is overpaid no matter what, he showed that he can be effective and help the Cubs win.

 

On ERA alone, he's had a good season for a 3rd starter, he's had an incredible season for a 5th starter, even looking at just peripherals.

 

Oh, and Carlos Zambrano now has the worst ERA of our 5 starters.

 

And Eyre's ERA+ is over 100!

 

And Kevin Hart's ERA+ is 286. :)

 

Actually, the only two pitchers on the Cubs right now with an ERA+ under 100 are Kerry Wood and Will Ohman.

 

EDIT: Oh, and Steve Trachsel, but I like to pretend he's not on the Cubs.

[baseball7897]

Marquis is having a solid year for the most part.

[TheDude]

I just hope he doesn't revert back to the Marquis we all thought he was going to be next year. Same with Lilly.

 

I just wonder how much LR has helped these guys?

 

I dunno. LR said he was going to help Marquis though, and it looks like it worked.

 

I keep feeling like we are "getting away" with something with these two performing so well. But hey -- who cares what I feel? I hope it continues.

 

Anybody who didn't think Lilly would succeed with the Cubs at this rate wasn't looking deeper into his numbers. When the Cubs signed Lilly, I said it many times, but from 2004-2006 he had 26 starts against Boston and New York in the AL East. 26/89 = 29% of his starts.

 

To put up a 3-year split ERA of 4.52 with 29% of your starts against Boston and New York was impressive. To then move to NL Central, widely regarded as the weakest division in baseball, you'd have to expect an improvement from Lilly.

 

There isn't much to 'get away' with...you took a guy battered by the AL East and dropped him in the NL Central.

[Bull]

he's performed better than i thought he would, but 3/21 million is still overpaying for his production.

 

3/21 was an overpay, just becasue I can't see him getting offers that were close to that this offseason. However, his results have definitely been worth more than 7M a season.

 

And I think Larry deserves a ton of credit for this.

 

This is the point that get's lost in the shuffle too often. Larry has done a very nice job this year. How many guys have rotated in and out of that bullpen?

 

What I think has helped Larry is that Curly and Moe were fired last year.

 

Post of the day

[UK1679666180]

Is it really Larry that has helped him?

 

I'm sorry but Marquis had the reputation of being stupidly stubborn as far as what he thought made him successful in both ATL and STL.

 

I think getting his ass handed to him last year after he tried to go back to what worked for him all his life at the dismay of Duncan was the best thing possible. Of course, that doesn't ignore the fact Larry's methods might've clicked better than previous PCs.

[Sammy Sofa]

Is it really Larry that has helped him?

 

I'm sorry but Marquis had the reputation of being stupidly stubborn as far as what he thought made him successful in both ATL and STL.

 

I think getting his ass handed to him last year after he tried to go back to what worked for him all his life at the dismay of Duncan was the best thing possible. Of course, that doesn't ignore the fact Larry's methods might've clicked better than previous PCs.

 

I thought I heard that Maddux actually suggested that Marquis work with Larry.

[C.C.]

Is it really Larry that has helped him?

 

I'm sorry but Marquis had the reputation of being stupidly stubborn as far as what he thought made him successful in both ATL and STL.

 

I think getting his ass handed to him last year after he tried to go back to what worked for him all his life at the dismay of Duncan was the best thing possible. Of course, that doesn't ignore the fact Larry's methods might've clicked better than previous PCs.

 

I thought I heard that Maddux actually suggested that Marquis work with Larry.

 

This is true. Before he even signed with the Cubs.

[UK1679666180]

Is it really Larry that has helped him?

 

I'm sorry but Marquis had the reputation of being stupidly stubborn as far as what he thought made him successful in both ATL and STL.

 

I think getting his ass handed to him last year after he tried to go back to what worked for him all his life at the dismay of Duncan was the best thing possible. Of course, that doesn't ignore the fact Larry's methods might've clicked better than previous PCs.

 

I thought I heard that Maddux actually suggested that Marquis work with Larry.

 

Sure, which is why I bolded the area above.

 

Larry has been able to do what Duncan and Mazzone couldn't, get him back on track both mechanically and mentally sooner rather than later.

 

Of course, I put that more on the struggling pitcher than the new PC.

[Sammy Sofa]

Didn't the Tigers also really want Larry before Hendry re-upped him?

[UK1679666180]

Didn't the Tigers also really want Larry before Hendry re-upped him?

 

When Leyland was hired, he wanted Rothschild who worked with him in Florida.

 

I think Larry has done a good job since Baker is not listening to Pole 1st.

 

He does have to do a better job with the pitchers as far as varying up times to home, looks to 1st, and maybe sneak in some slide steps to everyone other than Zambrano. If they make the playoffs and face the Mets, Reyes should be awarded a 3B everyone he gets to 1B. Combine pitchers who can't hold runners and a 30 arm behind the plate, you're asking to run out of the building.

[Ender]

Marquis' stats look exactly like the did most of the rest of his career, I don't think anyone helped him, he just had a bad year last year. The lowest BABIP of his career has helped him the most and I'm sure will regress next year but the Cubs play good defense so I don't imagine he'll change all that much.

 

For a team like the Brewers or Marlins he'd probably have an ERA around 5.00 though, yes defense makes that big of a difference.

[UK1679666180]

Marquis' stats look exactly like the did most of the rest of his career, I don't think anyone helped him, he just had a bad year last year. The lowest BABIP of his career has helped him the most and I'm sure will regress next year but the Cubs play good defense so I don't imagine he'll change all that much.

 

For a team like the Brewers or Marlins he'd probably have an ERA around 5.00 though, yes defense makes that big of a difference.

 

It's not a statistical or 3rd party reason (BABIP/defense) why he's doing better this year, it's a mechanical issue for him as well as pitch selection. If he stays closed in his delivery as well as not overthrowing his sinker (leaving it up in the zone) he'll do better. You're basing something solely on effect rather than cause. He had a better defense behind his last year and the reason why he BABIP is lower is not b/c of defense nor random flucuation but b/c of improvements in his stuff and command.

 

In STL last year, he wanted to throw more 4 seamers and curveballs, his curve isn't too sharp and his 4 seamer doesn't have much more velo than the sinker, no movement on it, and doesn't have great command of it.

Edited September 17, 2007 by UK

[CubinNY]

Marquis' stats look exactly like the did most of the rest of his career, I don't think anyone helped him, he just had a bad year last year. The lowest BABIP of his career has helped him the most and I'm sure will regress next year but the Cubs play good defense so I don't imagine he'll change all that much.

 

For a team like the Brewers or Marlins he'd probably have an ERA around 5.00 though, yes defense makes that big of a difference.

 

It's not a statistical or 3rd party reason (BABIP/defense) why he's doing better this year, it's a mechanical issue for him as well as pitch selection. If he stays closed in his delivery as well as not overthrowing his sinker (leaving it up in the zone) he'll do better. You're basing something solely on effect rather than cause. He had a better defense behind his last year and the reason why he BABIP is lower is not b/c of defense nor random flucuation but b/c of improvements in his stuff and command.

That and not overthrowing. He used to overthrow a lot when he got into trouble and it only got him into more trouble.

[UK1679666180]

Marquis' stats look exactly like the did most of the rest of his career, I don't think anyone helped him, he just had a bad year last year. The lowest BABIP of his career has helped him the most and I'm sure will regress next year but the Cubs play good defense so I don't imagine he'll change all that much.

 

For a team like the Brewers or Marlins he'd probably have an ERA around 5.00 though, yes defense makes that big of a difference.

 

It's not a statistical or 3rd party reason (BABIP/defense) why he's doing better this year, it's a mechanical issue for him as well as pitch selection. If he stays closed in his delivery as well as not overthrowing his sinker (leaving it up in the zone) he'll do better. You're basing something solely on effect rather than cause. He had a better defense behind his last year and the reason why he BABIP is lower is not b/c of defense nor random flucuation but b/c of improvements in his stuff and command.

That and not overthrowing. He used to overthrow a lot when he got into trouble and it only got him into more trouble.

 

:)

[CubinNY]

Marquis' stats look exactly like the did most of the rest of his career, I don't think anyone helped him, he just had a bad year last year. The lowest BABIP of his career has helped him the most and I'm sure will regress next year but the Cubs play good defense so I don't imagine he'll change all that much.

 

For a team like the Brewers or Marlins he'd probably have an ERA around 5.00 though, yes defense makes that big of a difference.

 

It's not a statistical or 3rd party reason (BABIP/defense) why he's doing better this year, it's a mechanical issue for him as well as pitch selection. If he stays closed in his delivery as well as not overthrowing his sinker (leaving it up in the zone) he'll do better. You're basing something solely on effect rather than cause. He had a better defense behind his last year and the reason why he BABIP is lower is not b/c of defense nor random flucuation but b/c of improvements in his stuff and command.

That and not overthrowing. He used to overthrow a lot when he got into trouble and it only got him into more trouble.

 

:)

Yea, I'm giving a test right now, trying to keep one eye on my students.

[Ender]

It's not a statistical or 3rd party reason (BABIP/defense) why he's doing better this year, it's a mechanical issue for him as well as pitch selection. If he stays closed in his delivery as well as not overthrowing his sinker (leaving it up in the zone) he'll do better. You're basing something solely on effect rather than cause. He had a better defense behind his last year and the reason why he BABIP is lower is not b/c of defense nor random flucuation but b/c of improvements in his stuff and command.

 

In STL last year, he wanted to throw more 4 seamers and curveballs, his curve isn't too sharp and his 4 seamer doesn't have much more velo than the sinker, no movement on it, and doesn't have great command of it.

 

I'm sure it is, but last year was the exception for him. He is throwing the ball this year just like he did almost every single year in his career before last year and no his BABIP is not just coming from mechanical issues, its almost certainly not sustainable given just how low it is this year.

 

Last year I'm sure his mechanics were off its why his stats were so far outside the norm and screamed regression back to his previous 3 year average, which is exactly what happened.

[UK1679666180]

It's not a statistical or 3rd party reason (BABIP/defense) why he's doing better this year, it's a mechanical issue for him as well as pitch selection. If he stays closed in his delivery as well as not overthrowing his sinker (leaving it up in the zone) he'll do better. You're basing something solely on effect rather than cause. He had a better defense behind his last year and the reason why he BABIP is lower is not b/c of defense nor random flucuation but b/c of improvements in his stuff and command.

 

In STL last year, he wanted to throw more 4 seamers and curveballs, his curve isn't too sharp and his 4 seamer doesn't have much more velo than the sinker, no movement on it, and doesn't have great command of it.

 

I'm sure it is, but last year was the exception for him. He is throwing the ball this year just like he did almost every single year in his career before last year and no his BABIP is not just coming from mechanical issues, its almost certainly not sustainable given just how low it is this year.

 

Last year I'm sure his mechanics were off its why his stats were so far outside the norm and screamed regression back to his previous 3 year average, which is exactly what happened.

 

That is dependent on the line drives he allows, more times than not he's going to be a lower BABIP, avg. HRs allowed, lower H/9, and low Ks will generate lower BABIP as I'm sure you know. But, what causes low BABIP for sinkerballers is movement on the two seamer not hitting the sweet spot of the bat, it's nice when they're past the trademark. If he can keep everything in line as far as his glove arm, balance, and stride leg positioning to stay closed and not deviate for the plan of attack, I think he could maintain or surpass his current BABIP despite it being espec. low. I believe the pitcher much like hitters (not so much hitters b/c of HRs and Ks and apporach at the plate) can dictate their BABIP by how well they hit line drives or for the pitchers how well they prevent line drives.

[Ender]

I believe the pitcher much like hitters (not so much hitters b/c of HRs and Ks and apporach at the plate) can dictate their BABIP by how well they hit line drives or for the pitchers how well they prevent line drives.

 

Yep they can for sure. Another factor is getting ahead in the count, BABIP most certainly fluctuates based on counts.

 

However pretty much no pitcher sustains a .262 BABIP. Marquis has a career rate of .284 and that is almost completely on strong defensive teams.

[UK1679666180]

I believe the pitcher much like hitters (not so much hitters b/c of HRs and Ks and apporach at the plate) can dictate their BABIP by how well they hit line drives or for the pitchers how well they prevent line drives.

 

Yep they can for sure. Another factor is getting ahead in the count, BABIP most certainly fluctuates based on counts.

 

However pretty much no pitcher sustains a .262 BABIP. Marquis has a career rate of .284 and that is almost completely on strong defensive teams.

 

That leads into my main point about his improvements this year over last year and the 2 bad months where he went back to his old self of '06 this year. I'm sure during the months he struggled his BABIP was +.300. His struggles were mechanics rather than stats trying to even themselves out. Of course, this doesn't mean he won't struggle again but it gives more hope (espec. how he has pitched as of late) that he can maintain it, when he concentrates on what needs to be done rather than lack of ability.

 

As far as defense...

Honestly, the Cubs are not a great range defense, they have good hands moreso on the IF than the OF, but defensively they don't cover much ground.

[Ender]

The Cubs still rate a +50 using the plus/minus system. DER agrees with that system the majority of the time so I tend to trust it. The Cubs have the 2nd best DER in MLB.

 

The Marlins rate a whopping -100. The Brewers are one of the worst in baseball at a -50 which is why their ERA is so bad even though their FIP says the pitching should be decent.

[UK1679666180]

I've watched this Cubs team enough to see who has plus fielding in terms of range and who doesn't.

 

Above avg.

1B (Lee)

 

Avg.

3B (Ramirez)

2B (Derosa, Fontenot)

CF (Jones)

 

Below avg.

LF (Soriano)

RF (Floyd, Murton, Ward)

SS (Theriot)

 

 

C flucuated too much between the revolving door, not range anyways.

 

Lee has regressed defensively this year mainly b/c of health but still above avg.

[Ender]

Well if thats the case then the Cubs have either been extremely lucky or they are doing an outstanding job of positioning themselves to make plays because they are making a lot more plays than an average defensive team.

[UK1679666180]

Marshall, Lilly, and Hill are fly ball pitchers, Marquis has been on more than off and when he's on, it's mostly not hard hit ground balls and lazy flys. Z has been on a similar roller coaster as Marquis.

 

This isn't a staff that gives up alot of line drives, which always makes the defense and overall numbers look good.

 

In various coaching manuals, I've always read that 2 out of 10 fly balls will be hits, 3 of out 10 ground balls will be hits and 7 or 8 out of 10 line drives will be hits.

[CubColtPacer]

Well if thats the case then the Cubs have either been extremely lucky or they are doing an outstanding job of positioning themselves to make plays because they are making a lot more plays than an average defensive team.

 

The Cubs also have pitchers who historically have below average BABIP's. Lilly in the last 6 years has 3 well below average and 3 average BABIPs.

Hill in his 3 significant data sizes (Triple A 06, Major league 06, and Major league 07) all below average.

Marquis has had more of a history of low numbers than high ones. Zambrano's highest BABIP in the last 4 years was .284, which is well below average.

Even Marshall has a slightly below average BABIP rate.

 

The defense isn't that great for the Cubs. It's pretty good, but it's nothing special. The Cubs have assembled starting pitchers who have shown that they can keep their BABIP's down and have hitters get bad contact on the ball. That has artificially made the defense look a lot better than it actually is.

[Ender]

Marshall, Lilly, and Hill are fly ball pitchers, Marquis has been on more than off and when he's on, it's mostly not hard hit ground balls and lazy flys. Z has been on a similar roller coaster as Marquis.

 

This isn't a staff that gives up alot of line drives, which always makes the defense and overall numbers look good.

 

In various coaching manuals, I've always read that 2 out of 10 fly balls will be hits, 3 of out 10 ground balls will be hits and 7 or 8 out of 10 line drives will be hits.

 

Cubs LD% is at 18% on the year which is pretty much completely normal, GB% is 41% which is even a tad low. The one thing that stands out is they lead the NL in K/9 but I really do think the defense is playing a role in the ERA.