Ankiel and HGH

[XZero771679666304]

Let the circus begin. . .

 

When is the general media / fanbase gonna accept that perfomance enhancers were the RULE, not the EXCEPTION, until just a while ago?

 

I mean, does it really make sense that the only guys using were Giambi, Bonds, Palmeiro, Mac and Sosa? Oh and Alex Sanchez?

 

Everybody was using. At least the greater majority. It was part of the lifestyle.

 

He should be tested as much or as little as every other player.

 

And like Haltz said - it probably has zero effect on his game today.

I just don't understand how that makes it any better.

 

It's not better. But I hate it when I hear fans talk about certain players. You hear people just rail Bonds. I have a couple Cub fan friends who act like McGwire was the only roider in the game, and he tought everything he knew to Pujols.

 

It doesn't make it right. But don't crucify one player just because you haven't heard about the rest of them. It's not like murder, or dogfighting even - it's cheating at sports.

 

I have no misconceptions about this thing. Nearly everyone was using PED's.

 

And personally I hate Bonds because he is a paranoid, narcissistic, racist SOB.

[Faceman]

Let the circus begin. . .

 

When is the general media / fanbase gonna accept that perfomance enhancers were the RULE, not the EXCEPTION, until just a while ago?

 

I mean, does it really make sense that the only guys using were Giambi, Bonds, Palmeiro, Mac and Sosa? Oh and Alex Sanchez?

 

Everybody was using. At least the greater majority. It was part of the lifestyle.

 

He should be tested as much or as little as every other player.

 

And like Haltz said - it probably has zero effect on his game today.

I just don't understand how that makes it any better.

 

It's not better. But I hate it when I hear fans talk about certain players. You hear people just rail Bonds. I have a couple Cub fan friends who act like McGwire was the only roider in the game, and he tought everything he knew to Pujols.

 

It doesn't make it right. But don't crucify one player just because you haven't heard about the rest of them. It's not like murder, or dogfighting even - it's cheating at sports.

 

I have no misconceptions about this thing. Nearly everyone was using PED's.

 

And personally I hate Bonds because he is a paranoid, narcissistic, racist SOB.

 

Well said. Bonds personality is why he has been hated for years, well before his home run surge. I don't hate him, don't like him though.

[badnews]

Oh there's magic. It's called, near the end of July, being 29th in the majors in team ERA and 27th in runs scored, at now being 1 game out. It's called trotting out a rotation of Wellemeyer, 0-10 Anthony Reyes, Wainwright, Mike Maroth, and Braden Looper and not having a record that resembles the 2003 Tigers. "Magic" is keeping stiffs like Adam Kennedy and Aaron Miles in the lineup, having Encarnacion, Molina, Eckstein, Edmonds, Rolen, Carpenter, Mulder, all missing time and still being in first.

 

Magic is Tony Womack's improbable season with the Cardinals, or that a guy with Chris Duncan's minor league numbers could do what he does, or that a year after being the worst bench guy in baseball with the Mariners, Scott Spezio could suddenly be a hero after donning the Cardinals uniform (this would be before the drug admissions obviously. Or that John Mabry somehow hit 13 home runs before we got him and found out how useless he is without the uniform. That happened with Womack too.

 

Magic is Ryan ****ing Franklin. His ERA is below 2! He's awful. I refuse to believe it. If you don't think the Cardinals have a contract with Satan I don't know what to tell you, because I've too much of Ryan Franklin, he's crap, it would be like if Dave Veres pitched like Jonathan Papelbon in 2008. So what is it? Franklin is wearing the Cardinals uniform, which may as well be the Superman uniform.

[haltz]

I agree. Ankiel and others are better at baseball because they are wearing a Cardinals uniform. I honestly believe that.

 

Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to go try and catch a unicorn.

[BDWeav71]

the cards should have to forfeit their world series because of this.

 

He didn't come back to the majors until early August 2007. All of 2006 he was in the minors.

 

 

Haha, I love it when this happens! Sarcasm is a beautiful thing, lost on so many.

[Faceman]

Mark Mulder?

 

Dan Haren?

 

Don Denkinger?

 

Vince Coleman?

 

Alex Cintron?

 

Chris Carpenter?

 

Darryl Kile?

 

2007?

[badnews]

You're being flip but the point is that the Cards perform miracles with absolute garbage, and to me it looks like SORCERY. They've used their dark arts to reanimate the corpse of Ryan Franklin and get quality innings out of him. It's like something out of a Harry Potter book. "Harry Potter and the Secret of Ryan Franklin."

 

I just know, for most of the season their team numbers have been awful, their roster has been a joke, I think if the Cubs had to work with what they had, we'd have won 30 games as year, and that's plenty galling.

[haltz]

You're being flip but the point is that the Cards perform miracles with absolute garbage, and to me it looks like SORCERY. They've used their dark arts to reanimate the corpse of Ryan Franklin and get quality innings out of him. It's like something out of a Harry Potter book. "Harry Potter and the Secret of Ryan Franklin."

 

I just know, for most of the season their team numbers have been awful, their roster has been a joke, I think if the Cubs had to work with what they had, we'd have won 30 games as year, and that's plenty galling.

Franklin's season is smoke and mirrors. These things happen. He's also a failed starter that's finding some success as a reliever with a new approach under Dave Duncan. Something tells me that JK Rowling is going to pass on this one.

 

The Cardinals have been playing good baseball over the last 30 games, and the division sucks enough that they're in contention after the brutal start. It's not that mystical dude.

 

There's another thread about Cardinals luck here and I don't have much to add beyond what Wolf and Ky had to say. A franchise getting lucky with players (career years, peaks, utilization, exploitation, straight luck) is one thing, but thinking that players are better because they are wearing a certain uniform is delusional.

[badnews]

The Cardinals "get lucky" and "engage in smoke and mirrors" far more often than your average franchise. They had the most talent in 2003, probably. What teams does nothing but get worse for 3 years and wins the World Series? How many World Series winners have a regular season winning percentage of .516? The playoffs are a crap shoot, blah blah blah - bottom line, how often does it happen? How often does a team that was 29th in ERA and 27th in runs scored around July 20th (I remember checking those numbers around then) end up a game out of 1st now?

 

Every year their playoff runs are supported by "illusions." They conjure more illusions than, dare I say, a magician? Scott Spezio going from a .286 OPS in 2005 to an .862 in 2006, yeah, smoke and mirrors, the smoke and mirrors they get from different sources every year.

 

Russ Springer, 2007 contrasted with his career numbers. Smoke and mirrors. Same for Ryan Franklin. A pitcher who comes back from the dead to hit like Harmon Killebrew. A guy like Chris Duncan, who should be another Jason Dubois, nothing odd there. Hemohhraging at-bats away with a guy like Adam Kennedy, what team wouldn't that sink? Losing your ace pitcher and your 2nd and 3rd best hitters, no problem.

 

Yeah, there's nothing odd about any of this at all. It's not about a weak division. They shouldn't even be anywhere near .500.

 

As for the uniforms, you're essentially saying a player can't get better by joining an extremely well-run and coached organization with a long tradition of success and competence.

 

But let's not get away from the kicker.

 

The Cardinals won the World Series with a regular season .516 winning percentage. Even now, their team ERA is 19th and baseball and 25th in runs scored.

 

Find me a time when that's happened before.

 

Heck, I'll make it easier. Find me a team when a team 19th in ERA and 25th in runs scored have been 1 game out in their division. No, wait, I'll make it yet easier. Find me a team that's been 1 game over .500 any time after July 1st being at least 19th in ERA and 25th in runs scored.

 

Come on, baseball is a game of luck and has been going on a long time. Can't be that hard, right?

[TruffleShuffle]

stopped receiving, meaning he's got 20 years' supply left stacked up in his basement

[haltz]

The Cardinals "get lucky" and "engage in smoke and mirrors" far more often than your average franchise. They had the most talent in 2003, probably. What teams does nothing but get worse for 3 years and wins the World Series? How many World Series winners have a regular season winning percentage of .516?

This divisional format and Wild Card system hasn't been around long enough for this point to be meaningful. The playoffs are a crapshoot. But, just for ***** and giggles, the Twins were outscored by their opponents in 1987.

 

How often does a team that was 29th in ERA and 27th in runs scored around July 20th (I remember checking those numbers around then) end up a game out of 1st now?

Fun with park factors: 97 OPS+, 94 ERA+. They are plus seven games on their pythag. Some luck, some bullpen and management probably. If you run a pythag% by runs created it lines up pretty well.

 

Every year their playoff runs are supported by "illusions." They conjure more illusions than, dare I say, a magician? Scott Spezio going from a .286 OPS in 2005 to an .862 in 2006, yeah, smoke and mirrors, the smoke and mirrors they get from different sources every year.

Crapshoot. And you mean 2006, not "every year". Spiezio had a second career year in less than 300 at-bats. Woo hoo. Aside from that triple, this had about as much to do with it as Womack's year in 2004.

 

Russ Springer, 2007 contrasted with his career numbers. Smoke and mirrors. Same for Ryan Franklin. A pitcher who comes back from the dead to hit like Harmon Killebrew. A guy like Chris Duncan, who should be another Jason Dubois, nothing odd there.

Rick could always hit. Duncan could always hit for power. And why stop at Springer and Franklin when talking about small sample runs against numbers? Let's include post-surgery Izzy and Percival who hasn't pitched in the bigs lately.

 

Hemohhraging at-bats away with a guy like Adam Kennedy, what team wouldn't that sink? Losing your ace pitcher and your 2nd and 3rd best hitters, no problem.

The Cardinals are bad, for these reasons.

 

As for the uniforms, you're essentially saying a player can't get better by joining an extremely well-run and coached organization with a long tradition of success and competence.

I'm not sure this is the point you're trying to make.

 

The Cardinals won the World Series with a regular season .516 winning percentage. Even now, their team ERA is 19th and baseball and 25th in runs scored.

 

Find me a time when that's happened before.

 

Heck, I'll make it easier. Find me a team when a team 19th in ERA and 25th in runs scored have been 1 game out in their division. No, wait, I'll make it yet easier. Find me a team that's been 1 game over .500 any time after July 1st being at least 19th in ERA and 25th in runs scored.

Is it OK if I just refer you to the first time I answered these questions? They're at the top of my post.

 

Should I go through all the "bad luck" and failed second baseman, or are we good here?

[seanimal]

Well, for what it's worth, I didn't read most of this thread,

 

But really? Really?

 

How pathetic. Ankiel is a great story. If we don't make the playoffs in the worst division in baseball, the only party to blame is our own crappy baseball team.

 

I'm embarrassed, and quite frankly, everyone here should be as well. Nothing could matter less.

[TruffleShuffle]

no the rick ankiel comeback is a terrible story

[badnews]

You're being glib. Just saying "park factors" doesn't explain away anything. And you didn't answer the question you said you did. The Twins didn't fit the bill of being as low as 19th in team ERA and as bad as 25th in runs scored. There's a difference between being outscored and being bad in both facets of the game. The Mariners have allowed more runs than they've scored. But they're 13th in runs and 21st in ERA.

 

The problem here is you acknowledge everything as "luck, luck, luck, luck" but then don't concede that no team gets this lucky with this many players for this long. People have been going on about the "Cardinal Illusion" for some years now. It's comforting to know that that the Cardinals doing better than they should and us worse than we should just happens to be a half decade of luck, until the Cardinals actually get legitimately good. I think that's a bit of a cop-out.

 

It's just too much excuse making. Oh yeah, Spezio, a hot 300 ABs. It's a "hot something" with too many guys, too many years.

 

Sure, why don't we throw them in? Heck, the Cardinals ought to bring in Matt Mantei while they're at it. Again, small sample size and luck. Funny how we're so short on the small sample size luck thing from guys like Springer, Franklin, etc.

 

I never said everything goes 100% smoothly for the Cardinals. But let's face it, if we had what they had this season, we'd be like the 2003 Tigers, and no one would blame us. You've had to half-heartedly explain away a lot of amazing resurgences, improbalities, etc, and then success in what should be statistical disaster.

 

A couple of these things would be acceptable. There are too many of them.

 

Answer this question - why them, and why not us?

 

Duncan could always hit for power.

 

Oh, this is the most outrageous thing yet. When does a guy whose minor league career numbers are a .262 BA, .340 OBP, .415 SLG, for a whopping .755 OPS translate into a .900+ OPS juggernaut? You've got to be kidding. There's no way you're going to make this fly with me. Dig up some Cubs minor leaguers who do that in the majors. The problems with Duncan doing this are numerous.

 

Duncan could always hit for power? Yeah, a minor league Isolated Power of .153 from a 1b/LF type does not strike me the same way it does you. That's like Matt Murton power.

 

#1- It was a lot more plausible in the steroid era.

 

#2- I'd be one thing if Duncan were young for his minor league level. He most certainly wasn't.

 

#3- A .755 OPS with a healthy dose of strikeouts for a guy's Duncan age should not translate into 2 900+ OPS seasons. He was basically an 800 OPS guy in the PCL, Buck Coats and Ronny Cedeno smoked that.

 

Look, you're an intelligent guy, but this argument isn't going to go anywhere, because you're too stubborn and unyielding. I understand that you don't think a lot of exceptions to the rule mean anything. But this idea of trying to play off Chris Duncan as nothing unusual just shows me you're being disingenuous. Chris Duncan wasn't a 21 year old rushed up through the minors who exploded at the minor league level. Even the scouts didn't like Duncan. This is well documented. It's not like he's one of many prospects who the scouts love, the minor league numbers stink, and they do well in the majors. There was essentially nothing good about Duncan. He wasn't young for his level, his position value was nil, he struck out too much, didn't hit for enough power or average, or anything really, frankly Chris Duncan was like the Cardinal version of Brandon Sing, and I don't know about you, but if Brandon Sing was giving us two .900+ OPS seasons I'd be pretty damned amazed by that.

 

Ankiel could hit but he hit in that same "no way is he doing anything in the majors" line like Justin Leone et al.

 

Anyway, no offense to you personally but I'm not going to argue this any more. What you were saying was interesting until you tried the Duncan whitewash, that convinced me you were more about being right than honestly discussing baseball and conceding another poster's good points. This idea that Duncan's .153 Isolated Power is "always hitting for power"... ugh. There's simply no way around it, Duncan's minor league numbers at his age correlated with his major league numbers is very odd, the fact that you tried to play it off like it was some kind of totally natural growth, like Hanley Ramirez, who scouts worshipped for years and was younger, kind of shows you're just more about being right than being honest - that the Cardinals really have a lot of very odd good fortune on their side, the type that the Cubs clearly don't have.

 

I apologize if any of that insulted you, it wasn't my intent. That Duncan stuff just disappointed me. I've read the Baseball Ameica reports on Duncan back in the day. At no time did they like him or suggest, like Alex Rios, he just needed to pack on some muscle, or anything of the sort. 25 year olds who've been in the majors a long time and posted an assload of strikeouts and an OPS of .800 in the PCL don't often have a lot of room for growth.

 

Some of your talk reminds me of the more stubborn people on Miguel Cabrera. "His BABIP hasn't dropped below .348 ever since he's hit the majors! But his luck is bound to run out one of these decades."

 

Yeah. At some point consistent, overly strange luck that no other organization has so consistently enjoyed over the past few years (even in spite of what might seem like bad luck but is simply another obstacle to be triumphantly overcomed) may seem indisguishiable from the world of Harry Potter.

[badnews]

Heck, let's just take a jaw-dropping moment to look at Duncan's 2006 season at AAA. A 25 year old whose best position is 1b, his second year in the PCL, he struck out in over 29% of his ABs, posted an .807 OPS, and a .177 Isolated Power does not bespeak mammoth power, numbers like those should be the kiss of death. It sure doesn't say anything about his major league career .260+ Isolated Power. The Cubs have been waiting 15 years for an improbability like Duncan, saints preserve us.

 

Chris Duncan needs his own topic, something like "Where do you think Chris Duncan hides his contract with Lucifer signed in blood?"

[haltz]

You're being glib. Just saying "park factors" doesn't explain away anything.

Looking at raw RA and RS numbers is dumb. Saying that the Cubs have a better offense than the Padres because they've scored more runs doesn't work.

 

The problem here is you acknowledge everything as "luck, luck, luck, luck" but then don't concede that no team gets this lucky with this many players for this long.

You can find over and underperformances on every team, every year. I'd rather have Franklin and Springer underperform than Reyes, Kennedy and Wells.

 

OMG DARYLE WARD

 

People have been going on about the "Cardinal Illusion" for some years now. It's comforting to know that that the Cardinals doing better than they should and us worse than we should just happens to be a half decade of luck, until the Cardinals actually get legitimately good.

By people you mean Cubs fans. I'm not going to make generalizations on a Cubs board (I'm here because I like the posters and the discussion) but it's really pathetic. I understand it came to a head in 2006 with the so-called improbable run, but it can also be argued that was a 90-win team on paper. And until the Cardinals actually get good? I know Tony Womack was solely responsible for the 855-run offense in 2004, but I swear they've had some decent teams over the last decade.

 

You've had to half-heartedly explain away a lot of amazing resurgences, improbalities, etc, and then success in what should be statistical disaster.

It's been less than half-hearted, trust me.

 

Oh, this is the most outrageous thing yet.

Sorry to cut off your novel here, but I'm talking about Duncan from a scouting perspective. I realize anyone can look up his IsoP on firstinning or thecube (And now BRef!). There have been two guys in the Cardinals system that could flick their wrists and hit a ball over the fence lately: Duncan and Ankiel. He put it together late, for a variety of reasons, but I'll also point out that he's a 117 OPS+ LF with not-so-hot defense right now.

 

Anyway, no offense to you personally but I'm not going to argue this any more. What you were saying was interesting until you tried the Duncan whitewash, that convinced me you were more about being right than honestly discussing baseball and conceding another poster's good points.

None taken. I concede no points here, because you have no good ones. Duncan hit like crazy last year for half a season. Right now, he's sitting on his PECOTA projection (not too dissimilar to Theriot's 2006-2007).

 

A lot of the perceived luck, especially with role players, is just a byproduct of Jocketty m.o. anyway. Systemic fallout like Larry Bigbie and Junior Spivey never get mentioned because they don't fit the screed.

[The Voice of Reason]

So much for the feel good story of 2007. The cheater should be investigated now. If the Cardinal organization had an ounce of integrity, they would do it now. Edited September 7, 2007 by The Voice of Reason

[moorecg]

XM said this morning that he recieved a shipment containing one years worth of doses in 2005...no confirmation that he "stopped" taking it when that ran out, just that he didn't order from that place again.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Somehow, I don't think this is going to blow over easily for Ankiel or the Cardinals. He's going to be asked about it repeatedly, and I don't think the media will let him by with a simple, "no comment."

 

Hopefully this becomes a HUGE distraction for the Cardinals.

[MPC]

HAHAHAHAHAHA

[kujay]

Predictably, the early reaction from Cards fans here is heads in the sand, blaming the New York media for dredging this stuff up, etc.

[moorecg]

Take a look at his Minor league stats....

 

his last year before this came up he hit like 10 home runs...the next year he played (there was an injury year in there)...he hit 21.....

[CuseCubFan69]

Predictably, the early reaction from Cards fans here is heads in the sand, blaming the New York media for dredging this stuff up, etc.

 

Now maybe the St. Louis media can look into how Roger Clemens gets away with "staying" young.

[mjohnson71]

Predictably, the early reaction from Cards fans here is heads in the sand, blaming the New York media for dredging this stuff up, etc.

 

Now maybe the St. Louis media can look into how Roger Clemens gets away with "staying" young.

 

Clemens' production the last few years has made me raise an eyebrow.

 

Sad thing is I'm also getting weird feelings about Nolan Ryan and his stats. :(

[moorecg]

Predictably, the early reaction from Cards fans here is heads in the sand, blaming the New York media for dredging this stuff up, etc.

 

Yeah...I've already recieved the "it was two years ago" and "this is just a classic NY media hit job" comments and its not even 8:00 a.m. yet....their spin machine is working overtime today.