I think we need to thank Yost for blowing this one...

[Hacking Out Machine]

In my opinion, there is no doubt that Ned Yost really had a profound negative effect on this game. Can anyone explain why he didn't go to Shouse in the 7th to face Jones? If he wasn't warm, shame on him.

 

Bringing in Shouse in that situation puts Lou in a quandry. First of all, despite his decent numbers against lefties this year, we all know that Jones in generally helpless against lefties, especially sidewinder types like Shouse. (See his subsequent 9th inning AB vs Shouse for evidence.) So Lou has to make a decision:either bat Jones or use Monroe. Since they picked up Monroe for situations just like this, it would make sense to use him in that situation. However, if he pinches for him, Jones is obviously out, and wouldn't be available later to contribute against the right handed back end of the Brewers bullpen in the 8th or 9th. Lou would be stuck with the Monroe/Murton combination or Pie, which is obviously much less desirable than having Jones there.

 

By sticking with Linebrink, Yost made is extremely easy on Lou, allowing him to avoid what could be described as a lose/lose, (Monroe in/Jones out, Monroe/Murton/Pie to hit against the Turnbow/Cordeo combo) and gifting Lou a win/win(Jones hits against a righty/gets to stay in the game).

 

I think this is evidence of a manager falling into the "solid reliever reputation paradox", which indicates that as soon as a (set up type)reliever gets a reputation as being good, he isn't anymore. Case in point: Linebrink. Every year, the best non-closing relievers in baseball are guys you've never heard of until after the year is over. By the time they get a rep, they're usually toast, and subsequently overpaid. Jim Hendry is a master at this, as Remlinger, Hawkins, Eyre, among others become liabilities long before their contracts are up. Other examples of this are guys like Linebrink, Mota, Felix Rodriguez, Farnsworth(Yankees version). Yost probably thought, "hey, Linebrink is a "quality veteran reliever" I can't just use him for one hitter. " As a result, Jones gets to hit against a righty who's become steadily much easier to hit(note his K rate this year), and the Cubs win.

 

Shouse eventually came in, but the horse was out of the proverbial barn by then. Also, any reason why Geoff Jenkins was passed over for gabe Gross with two on and Jenkins penchant for clubbing the Cubs? It was almost comincal when he ended up using Jenkins with nobody on and down by 2 in the ninth.

[CubmanPi]

If Yost HAD to go to the pen, any lefty would do. The one he brought out in the 8th K'd all three batters he faced, including our new specialist brought in for the specific purpose of hitting lefties.

 

The other option Yost had was leaving Suppan in. He just hit Cliff Floyd and had only thrown 82 pitches, and he was very easily mowing down the entire lineup. It was Suppan's game, and he should have had more of a chance to lose it. He wasn't even allowed to face the potential tying run in a 3-1 game.

[CubColtPacer]

Ok, two things:

 

Suppan did not continue easily mowing down the Cubs lineup as the game wore along. In the 5th, he gave up a double and a single to the pitcher.

In the 6th, he had a hard hit ball straight to the center fielder, a single off of the corner wall in right, and a very hard hit ball that happened to go right to Braun for a 5-4-3 DP.

Then in the 7th he starts with the Floyd HBP.

 

The Cubs had started to hit just about every ball hard off of Suppan those last 7 batters that he had faced. It was only a matter of time before the Cubs broke through with the balls they were hitting (as opposed to the first 4 2/3, where they mostly looked clueless).

 

As for Shouse not coming in, I was shocked that Yost didn't go to him. I do have the reason why he wouldn't, numbers which shock me as well:

 

Jacque Jones vs. Shouse: 4/10, 1 2B, 2 HR, .400/.400/1.100

Jones was 0/4 with a walk against Linebrink before tonight.

 

The fact that Jones has 3 extra base hits against him and 2 home runs suggests that Jones has an easier time against Shouse than just about any other left-hander (which was not evidenced by his at-bat later in the game).

 

I still don't necessarily agree with the call, but I can at least understand that it was a tough decision on Yost's part instead of the slam dunk that I thought it was during the game.

[CubmanPi]

I stand corrected, CCP - good post.

[SouthSideRyan]

Putting stock into 10 AB and 4 AB sample sizes doesn't seem like sound decision making to me when you have gobs of AB sample size for Shouse vs. lefties and Jones vs. lefties.

 

Suppan should've stayed in to face DeRosa, and then barring a DP Shouse in to face Jones.

[CubmanPi]

Putting stock into 10 AB and 4 AB sample sizes doesn't seem like sound decision making to me when you have gobs of AB sample size for Shouse vs. lefties and Jones vs. lefties.

 

Suppan should've stayed in to face DeRosa, and then barring a DP Shouse in to face Jones.

Jock's AB in the 7th is also a small sample size. It may not be enough to make the blanket statement that Jock owns Shouse, but in the event that he came through, it's enough to look back and decide you should have known better.

[CubColtPacer]

Putting stock into 10 AB and 4 AB sample sizes doesn't seem like sound decision making to me when you have gobs of AB sample size for Shouse vs. lefties and Jones vs. lefties.

 

Suppan should've stayed in to face DeRosa, and then barring a DP Shouse in to face Jones.

 

Oh, I'd definitely agree. I probably still would have played it closer to the way you suggest than the way Yost played it. I actually put no stock in the 4 AB's against Linebrink-that's so few at-bats that one hard hit out that falls for a double changes the statistics all the way.

 

The 10 at-bats is a little more statistically significant only because of the extra base hits. If Jacque had been 4/10 with 4 singles, then it could just be passed off as luck. 2 HR's and a double could still be mostly lucky pitches, but it's a lot less likely.

 

Also, there are about 3 Cubs who the Brewers would really love to save that situational left-hander for (4 if you count Pie). With Jones having great numbers against Shouse, even in a limited number of at-bats, it just wasn't the right time to use him, especially after Linebrink entered the game which meant the Brewers probably would have had to use 3 relievers to get out of the 7th if they brought in Shouse.

 

Like I said, I wouldn't have played it the way Yost did, but I don't think it's completely cut and dry that he's wrong either.

[RynoRules]

Yost is playing tight like the rest of his team. Its tough to think straight when your team is collapsing around you. His bullpen management left me scratching my head last night.

 

Good post BTW, CCP.

[CUBZ99]

Putting stock into 10 AB and 4 AB sample sizes doesn't seem like sound decision making to me when you have gobs of AB sample size for Shouse vs. lefties and Jones vs. lefties.

 

Suppan should've stayed in to face DeRosa, and then barring a DP Shouse in to face Jones.

 

Oh, I'd definitely agree. I probably still would have played it closer to the way you suggest than the way Yost played it. I actually put no stock in the 4 AB's against Linebrink-that's so few at-bats that one hard hit out that falls for a double changes the statistics all the way.

 

The 10 at-bats is a little more statistically significant only because of the extra base hits. If Jacque had been 4/10 with 4 singles, then it could just be passed off as luck. 2 HR's and a double could still be mostly lucky pitches, but it's a lot less likely.

 

Also, there are about 3 Cubs who the Brewers would really love to save that situational left-hander for (4 if you count Pie). With Jones having great numbers against Shouse, even in a limited number of at-bats, it just wasn't the right time to use him, especially after Linebrink entered the game which meant the Brewers probably would have had to use 3 relievers to get out of the 7th if they brought in Shouse.

 

Like I said, I wouldn't have played it the way Yost did, but I don't think it's completely cut and dry that he's wrong either.

 

Wouldn't this have been the equivalent of having Marquis in the game with a 2 run lead? If the Cubs were in the same situation, most of us would have been begging Lou to get Marmol in there after the Floyd AB. I think Yost played it the way he should have. It is easy to second guess his decisions now, but Linebrink was acquired for those exact situations. He just failed to come through last night.

[cubweiser03]

I was surprised too he stuck with Linebrink. However its probaby not as dumb as it looks. Linebrink has a nasty change and he actually has reverse splits because of it. He's still pretty good against righties but here are his lefty splits.

.219/.297

 

Shouse Vs Lefties:

.211/.271

 

The chicken or the egg. Is JJ splits more important vs a righty or is Linebrinks more important vs a lefty.

 

Edit:

Also you know you got Ward coming in after Kendall. Another good candidate for Linebrink. If you take out Linebrink with JJ, Shouse probably wont face Monroe and Kendall before he sees Ward so you will need another lefty vs Ward.

Edited August 29, 2007 by cubweiser03

[Peoriaman]

Putting stock into 10 AB and 4 AB sample sizes doesn't seem like sound decision making to me when you have gobs of AB sample size for Shouse vs. lefties and Jones vs. lefties.

 

Suppan should've stayed in to face DeRosa, and then barring a DP Shouse in to face Jones.

 

Oh, I'd definitely agree. I probably still would have played it closer to the way you suggest than the way Yost played it. I actually put no stock in the 4 AB's against Linebrink-that's so few at-bats that one hard hit out that falls for a double changes the statistics all the way.

 

The 10 at-bats is a little more statistically significant only because of the extra base hits. If Jacque had been 4/10 with 4 singles, then it could just be passed off as luck. 2 HR's and a double could still be mostly lucky pitches, but it's a lot less likely.

 

Also, there are about 3 Cubs who the Brewers would really love to save that situational left-hander for (4 if you count Pie). With Jones having great numbers against Shouse, even in a limited number of at-bats, it just wasn't the right time to use him, especially after Linebrink entered the game which meant the Brewers probably would have had to use 3 relievers to get out of the 7th if they brought in Shouse.

 

Like I said, I wouldn't have played it the way Yost did, but I don't think it's completely cut and dry that he's wrong either.

 

Wouldn't this have been the equivalent of having Marquis in the game with a 2 run lead? If the Cubs were in the same situation, most of us would have been begging Lou to get Marmol in there after the Floyd AB. I think Yost played it the way he should have. It is easy to second guess his decisions now, but Linebrink was acquired for those exact situations. He just failed to come through last night.

 

 

He has failed to come through all season long for both teams he has played for....

[Ender]

Yost is a below average manager and bullpen usage is probably his biggest weakness, so its really no surprise.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yost is playing tight like the rest of his team. Its tough to think straight when your team is collapsing around you. His bullpen management left me scratching my head last night.

 

Good post BTW, CCP.

 

I really enjoyed the little smirk he had after they lost the lead. It was either a fake smile trying to pretend everything was okay, or him laughing at his own team's floundering.

[RynoRules]

Yost is playing tight like the rest of his team. Its tough to think straight when your team is collapsing around you. His bullpen management left me scratching my head last night.

 

Good post BTW, CCP.

 

I really enjoyed the little smirk he had after they lost the lead. It was either a fake smile trying to pretend everything was okay, or him laughing at his own team's floundering.

 

I noticed that also. My wife and I wondered what that was about.

[Soul]

Yost is a below average manager and bullpen usage is probably his biggest weakness, so its really no surprise.

 

I always viewed Yost as a better manager than his predecessors, but I am finding it difficult to defend that position now because he is, indeed, making some truly bad decisions.

 

Here's to hoping it continues.

[Ender]

Yost is playing tight like the rest of his team. Its tough to think straight when your team is collapsing around you. His bullpen management left me scratching my head last night.

 

Good post BTW, CCP.

 

I really enjoyed the little smirk he had after they lost the lead. It was either a fake smile trying to pretend everything was okay, or him laughing at his own team's floundering.

 

I noticed that also. My wife and I wondered what that was about.

 

He does that all the time, I have no idea why but its not something unique to last night.

 

Shouse eventually came in, but the horse was out of the proverbial barn by then. Also, any reason why Geoff Jenkins was passed over for gabe Gross with two on and Jenkins penchant for clubbing the Cubs?

 

Gross has been really hot lately and Jenkins had a very bad road trip, I didn't have a big problem with that move. Letting Linebrink face Jones was horrible though and yanking Suppan after a HBP was terrible too, you either pinch hit for him or show a little faith in him.

[soccer10k]

I was surprised too he stuck with Linebrink. However its probaby not as dumb as it looks. Linebrink has a nasty change and he actually has reverse splits because of it. He's still pretty good against righties but here are his lefty splits.

.219/.297

 

Shouse Vs Lefties:

.211/.271

 

The chicken or the egg. Is JJ splits more important vs a righty or is Linebrinks more important vs a lefty.

 

Edit:

Also you know you got Ward coming in after Kendall. Another good candidate for Linebrink. If you take out Linebrink with JJ, Shouse probably wont face Monroe and Kendall before he sees Ward so you will need another lefty vs Ward.

 

In regards to your first point, you have to consider both the hitter and pitcher splits.

 

Both of your pitchers are typically good against lefties but one pitcher is a right and the other is a lefty. The batter you are facing is far better against righties than lefties.

 

But like you said, you have to consider what you're going to do with Monroe and Kendall after Jones bats. It would seem to me that Yost didn't want Shouse to face just one batter or face Monroe and Kendall so he left Linebrink in and he got burned.

[Ender]

I was surprised too he stuck with Linebrink. However its probaby not as dumb as it looks. Linebrink has a nasty change and he actually has reverse splits because of it. He's still pretty good against righties but here are his lefty splits.

.219/.297

 

Shouse Vs Lefties:

.211/.271

 

The chicken or the egg. Is JJ splits more important vs a righty or is Linebrinks more important vs a lefty.

 

Edit:

Also you know you got Ward coming in after Kendall. Another good candidate for Linebrink. If you take out Linebrink with JJ, Shouse probably wont face Monroe and Kendall before he sees Ward so you will need another lefty vs Ward.

 

In regards to your first point, you have to consider both the hitter and pitcher splits.

 

Both of your pitchers are typically good against lefties but one pitcher is a right and the other is a lefty. The batter you are facing is far better against righties than lefties.

 

But like you said, you have to consider what you're going to do with Monroe and Kendall after Jones bats. It would seem to me that Yost didn't want Shouse to face just one batter or face Monroe and Kendall so he left Linebrink in and he got burned.

 

You are overthinking it. Linebrink is the Brewers 7th inning guy. Even if its a bad matchup or the fact linebrink has struggled lately or the fact he was obviously perterbed after the error it doesn't matter, he's the 7th inning guy so he pitches.

 

Turnbow is the 8th inning guy, he is almost never used unless its a save situation in the 8th inning. Cordero is the 9th inning guy, he has pitched 2 innings since August 11th because the Brewers haven't had many 9th inning leads. That is how Yost runs the bullpen, he has player roles and he sticks to them no matter what happens and he generally leaves the guy in even if he doesn't seem to have it that night.