Can anyone answer why Doug Davis is better than Rich Hill?

[badnews]

A stathead, we need a stathead over here!

 

Doug Davis's FIP is 4.67, which suggests that he's worse than his ERA suggests.

 

However, Rich Hill's FIP is 4.68, which suggests he's even more worse than his ERA suggests.

 

But this is what bothers me - Rich Hill has a 1.19 WHIP, and stands 79.1% of baserunners. Doug Davis has a staggering 1.57 WHIP, and strands 76.6% of baserunners.

 

FIP is supposed to tell you who is pitching better than their numbers and who is pitching worse. It doesn't seem like Hill is improbably stranding so many more than Davis to make up for the enormous difference in the number of baserunners Davis has allowed.

 

To sum it up, this is what I don't understand - a 3.73 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP, that sounds like a reasonable correlation to me. A 3.92 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, that sounds like ridiculous luck. How many pitchers have thrown over 180 innings with an ERA below 4 and a WHIP over 1.50?

 

So who can explain the reasoning here?

[mhuber92211]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

[SouthSideRyan]

Presented without comment

 

Rich Hill 3.73

Ted Lilly 3.74

Carlos Zambrano 3.86

Sean Marshall 4.21

Jason Marquis 4.25

[abuck1220]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

[Mephistopheles]

Rich Hill has a .263 BABIP.

Doug Davis has a .310 BABIP.

 

Although some lefty curveballers have shown a consistent ability to minimize their BABIP. Barry Zito is one of them and the comparisons between Zito and Hill are not hidden.

[Sammy Sofa]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

Where did he say otherwise in the post you quoted?

[Electron Blue]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

Where did he say otherwise in the post you quoted?

 

There's a prevailing opinion (on this board, and maybe throughout MLB's fandom), that inconsistency is a "reason player X is bad."

 

I would guess that abuck was reading between the lines (as I did) in mhuber's post... Rich Hill may be inconsistent, but he's not "bad" because of it.

[Sammy Sofa]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

Where did he say otherwise in the post you quoted?

 

There's a prevailing opinion (on this board, and maybe throughout MLB's fandom), that inconsistency is a "reason player X is bad."

 

I would guess that abuck was reading between the lines (as I did) in mhuber's post... Rich Hill may be inconsistent, but he's not "bad" because of it.

 

Right, but he didn't say he was any more or less inconsistent than any of the Cubs' other starters.

[Mephistopheles]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

This is true. This probably isn't the best way to grade consistency in starts, but it's a useful way. Game score is kinda worthless but it gets the job done here.

 

Average Game Scores - Cub Starters

1. 55.2 Ted Lilly

2. 55.1 Rich Hill

3. 53.9 Carlos Zambrano

4. 49.3 Sean Marshall

5. 48.9 Jason Marquis

 

Standard Deviation of Game Scores - Cub Starters

1. 19.3 Carlos Zambrano

2. 17.4 Jason Marquis

3. 16.7 Sean Marshall

4. 16.7 Rich Hill

5. 14.7 Ted Lilly

 

People should shut up about Hill's inconsistency.

[Sammy Sofa]

People should shut up

 

Yes, they should.

[abuck1220]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

Where did he say otherwise in the post you quoted?

 

There's a prevailing opinion (on this board, and maybe throughout MLB's fandom), that inconsistency is a "reason player X is bad."

 

I would guess that abuck was reading between the lines (as I did) in mhuber's post... Rich Hill may be inconsistent, but he's not "bad" because of it.

 

Right, but he didn't say he was any more or less inconsistent than any of the Cubs' other starters.

 

by saying that he's inconsistent, don't you think that he's implying that he's more inconsistent than the other cubs or more inconsistent than most pitchers?

[Sammy Sofa]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

Where did he say otherwise in the post you quoted?

 

There's a prevailing opinion (on this board, and maybe throughout MLB's fandom), that inconsistency is a "reason player X is bad."

 

I would guess that abuck was reading between the lines (as I did) in mhuber's post... Rich Hill may be inconsistent, but he's not "bad" because of it.

 

Right, but he didn't say he was any more or less inconsistent than any of the Cubs' other starters.

 

by saying that he's inconsistent, don't you think that he's implying that he's more inconsistent than the other cubs or more inconsistent than most pitchers?

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

 

I agree with that for a stretch of this season, but it looks like Hill has flipped it back. Hopefully the Cubs can start remembering how to hit the ball when he takes the mound. I do not, however, think that Hill is a "good or bad" only pitcher.

[cubweiser03]

Davis' whip is 1.56 compared to 1.51 last year.

His ERA is .99 lower this year.

His SLG% is only down .002 compared to last year.

Dude is dodging bullets whatever FIPs says.

[biittner77]

Somewhere Joe Mrogan is thinking "Whoever's won more games, that's the only stat that matters for a pitcher.

[TruffleShuffle]

The only real rationale I can see is that Hill has given up 9 more homers. But yeah he's been better almost across the board. I'm not really sold on FIP as a stat, it seems pretty flawed.

[Mephistopheles]

The only real rationale I can see is that Hill has given up 9 more homers. But yeah he's been better almost across the board. I'm not really sold on FIP as a stat, it seems pretty flawed.

 

 

Thats the nuts and bolts behind it. There's something to be said for it. There's another FIP hybrid, xFIP which doesn't use HRs but estimates HRs via outfield flyballs, which is another thing to guage them. A high amount of Richs flyballs have gone over the fence and his xFIP is 4.20. Davis' xFIP on the other hand is 4.80. In this case, xFIP probably means more than FIP.

 

Of course FIP is flawed. Every statistic is flawed, even the uber ones like EqA. The only question is which is flawed more, ERA or FIP/xFIP etc and it's the former.

[CubinNY]

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

Everything in life is relative. Rich Hill is incosistent compared to who?

 

Speaking of HRs Lilly has been giving them up a pretty good clip.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

Everything in life is relative. Rich Hill is incosistent compared to who?

 

Speaking of HRs Lilly has been giving them up a pretty good clip.

 

His own demonstrated capabilities?

[Electron Blue]

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

Everything in life is relative. Rich Hill is incosistent compared to who?

 

Speaking of HRs Lilly has been giving them up a pretty good clip.

 

His own demonstrated capabilities?

 

did you misunderstand the question or are you avoiding it?

 

Every pitcher is inconsistent. A player with a 3.00 ERA doesn't give up 2 Rs over 6 innings every time out. There are gems and poundings mixed in with decent and below average outings. Demonstrate how this doesn't describe Rich Hill and most every other ML SP, please.

[Sammy Sofa]

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

Everything in life is relative. Rich Hill is incosistent compared to who?

 

Speaking of HRs Lilly has been giving them up a pretty good clip.

 

His own demonstrated capabilities?

 

did you misunderstand the question or are you avoiding it?

 

Every pitcher is inconsistent. A player with a 3.00 ERA doesn't give up 2 Rs over 6 innings every time out. There are gems and poundings mixed in with decent and below average outings. Demonstrate how this doesn't describe Rich Hill and most every other ML SP, please.

 

What? He said everything was relative and then asked who Rich Hill was inconsistent compared to. My response was his own demonstrated capabilities, ie - he's been much better for periods of time than he has for stretches this season. What am I avoiding? I never said Rich was some kind of anomaly compared to other pitchers.

[NewUserName]

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

Everything in life is relative. Rich Hill is incosistent compared to who?

 

Speaking of HRs Lilly has been giving them up a pretty good clip.

 

His own demonstrated capabilities?

 

 

I think if Hill would get average league run support there would be no talk of his consistency.

[Electron Blue]

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

Everything in life is relative. Rich Hill is incosistent compared to who?

 

Speaking of HRs Lilly has been giving them up a pretty good clip.

 

His own demonstrated capabilities?

 

did you misunderstand the question or are you avoiding it?

 

Every pitcher is inconsistent. A player with a 3.00 ERA doesn't give up 2 Rs over 6 innings every time out. There are gems and poundings mixed in with decent and below average outings. Demonstrate how this doesn't describe Rich Hill and most every other ML SP, please.

 

What? He said everything was relative and then asked who Rich Hill was inconsistent compared to. My response was his own demonstrated capabilities, ie - he's been much better for periods of time than he has for stretches this season. What am I avoiding? I never said Rich was some kind of anomaly compared to other pitchers.

 

you're right that that's the definition of inconsistency. But if he isn't any more or less consistent than the bulk of the rest of the league it doesn't mean a single thing. Taken literally, of course you're right. But I'm not sure that it matters, since no one in the Hill-is-Inconsistent camp can back up the value of their claim.

[Soul]

 

I simply took it to mean that he was saying Rich Hill himself is or has been inconsistent since this thread is about Hill and not any of the other Cubs starters.

Everything in life is relative. Rich Hill is incosistent compared to who?

 

Speaking of HRs Lilly has been giving them up a pretty good clip.

 

His own demonstrated capabilities?

 

did you misunderstand the question or are you avoiding it?

 

Every pitcher is inconsistent. A player with a 3.00 ERA doesn't give up 2 Rs over 6 innings every time out. There are gems and poundings mixed in with decent and below average outings. Demonstrate how this doesn't describe Rich Hill and most every other ML SP, please.

 

What? He said everything was relative and then asked who Rich Hill was inconsistent compared to. My response was his own demonstrated capabilities, ie - he's been much better for periods of time than he has for stretches this season. What am I avoiding? I never said Rich was some kind of anomaly compared to other pitchers.

 

you're right that that's the definition of inconsistency. But if he isn't any more or less consistent than the bulk of the rest of the league it doesn't mean a single thing. Taken literally, of course you're right. But I'm not sure that it matters, since no one in the Hill-is-Inconsistent camp can back up the value of their claim.

 

The only thing I'm willing to say is that I hope Hill is consistently better in the future. I don't see a lot of arm problems for him, so I'm hoping he just tweaks his craft enough that we see more good starts and fewer blowups. I can say the same about Marshall though, the same about any of our younger pitchers where I see some upside that hasn't yet been fully explored.

[Derwood]

he consistently gets no run support

[Ender]

Davis has a 47% GB rate

Hill has a 35% GB rate

 

That is one of the biggest differences right there and something that Hill needs to work on. Giving up fly balls by itself wont' doom a pitcher but it really does hurt their ERA, especially in a park that in theory gives up a lot of HR's.

 

FIP also doesn't like pitchers who can suppress BABIP and Hill seems to be that type of guy. It also doesn't like guys who nibble a lot like Davis.

 

Some rare pitchers like Davis, Livan, Glavine etc tend to walk more guys and consistently get away with it because they are control pitchers who nibble on the corners instead of guys who just have bad control and BB guys.