Can anyone answer why Doug Davis is better than Rich Hill?

[soccer10k]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

This is true. This probably isn't the best way to grade consistency in starts, but it's a useful way. Game score is kinda worthless but it gets the job done here.

 

Average Game Scores - Cub Starters

1. 55.2 Ted Lilly

2. 55.1 Rich Hill

3. 53.9 Carlos Zambrano

4. 49.3 Sean Marshall

5. 48.9 Jason Marquis

 

Standard Deviation of Game Scores - Cub Starters

1. 19.3 Carlos Zambrano

2. 17.4 Jason Marquis

3. 16.7 Sean Marshall

4. 16.7 Rich Hill

5. 14.7 Ted Lilly

 

People should shut up about Hill's inconsistency.

 

While Z has the highest standard deviation, I don't think he's been the most inconsistent starter on the team. He had a horrible first two months of the year and then a very good next 2 months (up until his last two stars). So far this year he's been either consistently bad or consistently good.

[Guest]

Rich Hill is inconsistent. He is either really good or really bad. An average stat like ERA doesn't tell a true story of his season

 

hill is no more inconsistent than any of the other cub starters. i don't know why people keep saying otherwise.

 

Where did he say otherwise in the post you quoted?

 

It seems obvious to me that mhuber was saying it in a negative fashion.

[badnews]

Doug Davis finally has a higher FIP than Rich Hill, it only took a 2 inning, 6 run fiasco where he raised his WHIP to a mind-boggling 1.60 to do it.

[abuck1220]

 

While Z has the highest standard deviation, I don't think he's been the most inconsistent starter on the team. He had a horrible first two months of the year and then a very good next 2 months (up until his last two stars). So far this year he's been either consistently bad or consistently good.

 

isn't that, like, the definition of inconsistent?

[Mephistopheles]

Why yes it is abuck!

[soccer10k]

 

While Z has the highest standard deviation, I don't think he's been the most inconsistent starter on the team. He had a horrible first two months of the year and then a very good next 2 months (up until his last two stars). So far this year he's been either consistently bad or consistently good.

 

isn't that, like, the definition of inconsistent?

 

Like, no it isn't.

 

Telling me a player has been consistent doesn't tell you anything about his production because you could be consistently good or consistently bad. All that matters is that your performances don't fluctuate. A pitcher who allows six earned runs every single time he takes the mound is a consistent pitcher. A pitcher who allows 1 earned run every time out is also a consistent pitcher.

 

I would classify an inconsistent pitcher as one who has two bad outings followed by a good outing followed by a bad outing followed by three good outings, etc.

 

Because Z was bad for two months and then good for two months means he has been, for the most part, consistent. His good outings were mostly lumped together in June and July whereas his bad outings were lumped together in April and May

 

To use some of the stats that Lord of Khemennu used:

 

Z's average game score on the year: 53.9

Z's standard deviation of game scores: 19.3

 

But to look at it further:

Z's average game score in first 12 starts from 4/2 - 6/1: 44.2

Z's standard deviation of game score over that time: 16.7

 

That shows that he was still a bit inconsistent but no more so than Marshall or Hill and I believe LoK said that "People should shut up about Hill's inconsistency" which would lead me to believe that a StDev of 16.7 isn't too bad.

 

Now let's look at Z from 6/6 - 8/3

 

Z's average game score in next 12 starts from 6/6 - 8/3: 68.25

Z's standard deviation of game score over that time: 9.95

 

Yes, 9.95 which is far better than any starter on the Cubs. That is what I would call consistent.

[Lockes Eye Scar]

is there anyone in baseball who is truly consistent?

[Irrelevant Dude]

is there anyone in baseball who is truly consistent?

Neifi Perez

[Bote McBoteface]

is there anyone in baseball who is truly consistent?

Neifi Perez

 

 

Stole my response >=[

 

 

:D

[Balsa]

is there anyone in baseball who is truly consistent?

Joe Nathan?

[abuck1220]

 

While Z has the highest standard deviation, I don't think he's been the most inconsistent starter on the team. He had a horrible first two months of the year and then a very good next 2 months (up until his last two stars). So far this year he's been either consistently bad or consistently good.

 

isn't that, like, the definition of inconsistent?

 

Like, no it isn't.

 

Telling me a player has been consistent doesn't tell you anything about his production because you could be consistently good or consistently bad. All that matters is that your performances don't fluctuate. A pitcher who allows six earned runs every single time he takes the mound is a consistent pitcher. A pitcher who allows 1 earned run every time out is also a consistent pitcher.

 

I would classify an inconsistent pitcher as one who has two bad outings followed by a good outing followed by a bad outing followed by three good outings, etc.

 

Because Z was bad for two months and then good for two months means he has been, for the most part, consistent. His good outings were mostly lumped together in June and July whereas his bad outings were lumped together in April and May

 

To use some of the stats that Lord of Khemennu used:

 

Z's average game score on the year: 53.9

Z's standard deviation of game scores: 19.3

 

But to look at it further:

Z's average game score in first 12 starts from 4/2 - 6/1: 44.2

Z's standard deviation of game score over that time: 16.7

 

That shows that he was still a bit inconsistent but no more so than Marshall or Hill and I believe LoK said that "People should shut up about Hill's inconsistency" which would lead me to believe that a StDev of 16.7 isn't too bad.

 

Now let's look at Z from 6/6 - 8/3

 

Z's average game score in next 12 starts from 6/6 - 8/3: 68.25

Z's standard deviation of game score over that time: 9.95

 

Yes, 9.95 which is far better than any starter on the Cubs. That is what I would call consistent.

 

sorry, but being really good for a while and then really bad for a while is being inconsistent. i don't know what else you'd call it.

[soccer10k]

 

While Z has the highest standard deviation, I don't think he's been the most inconsistent starter on the team. He had a horrible first two months of the year and then a very good next 2 months (up until his last two stars). So far this year he's been either consistently bad or consistently good.

 

isn't that, like, the definition of inconsistent?

 

Like, no it isn't.

 

Telling me a player has been consistent doesn't tell you anything about his production because you could be consistently good or consistently bad. All that matters is that your performances don't fluctuate. A pitcher who allows six earned runs every single time he takes the mound is a consistent pitcher. A pitcher who allows 1 earned run every time out is also a consistent pitcher.

 

I would classify an inconsistent pitcher as one who has two bad outings followed by a good outing followed by a bad outing followed by three good outings, etc.

 

Because Z was bad for two months and then good for two months means he has been, for the most part, consistent. His good outings were mostly lumped together in June and July whereas his bad outings were lumped together in April and May

 

To use some of the stats that Lord of Khemennu used:

 

Z's average game score on the year: 53.9

Z's standard deviation of game scores: 19.3

 

But to look at it further:

Z's average game score in first 12 starts from 4/2 - 6/1: 44.2

Z's standard deviation of game score over that time: 16.7

 

That shows that he was still a bit inconsistent but no more so than Marshall or Hill and I believe LoK said that "People should shut up about Hill's inconsistency" which would lead me to believe that a StDev of 16.7 isn't too bad.

 

Now let's look at Z from 6/6 - 8/3

 

Z's average game score in next 12 starts from 6/6 - 8/3: 68.25

Z's standard deviation of game score over that time: 9.95

 

Yes, 9.95 which is far better than any starter on the Cubs. That is what I would call consistent.

 

sorry, but being really good for a while and then really bad for a while is being inconsistent. i don't know what else you'd call it.

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

[Mephistopheles]

actually he's right.

[Soul]

I think we need a working definition of 'inconsistent' as it applies to baseball players.

[abuck1220]

 

Sorry, but you're wrong.

 

whatever.

 

he may have been consistent for stretches, but looking at the season as a whole, he's been inconsistent.

[mhuber92211]

sorry to be late to clarify.

 

What I was merely pointing out (and this is older information) but back when we were comparing Marshall to Hill, the numbers of runs in each start was either very good (3 or less) or very bad (5 or more). I was just making mention that with Average stats it paints a poor picture, similar to the Marqui discussion of his ERA if you take out 2 horrible starts.

[mhuber92211]

he went...

 

7ip - 1 ER

7 - 1

8 - 0

6.2 - 4

7 - 2

6 - 1

5 - 5

6 - 4

6 - 5

6 - 0

7 - 1

8 - 1

6.2 - 3

3 - 5

5.2 - 1

3 - 5

6 - 6

8 - 2

6 - 1

5 - 2

4.2 - 3

7 - 1

5.2 - 7

7 - 1

7 - 2

 

Thus I stand corrected. Outside of the typical start he is pretty consistent, just unfortunate. I remembered the older information differently. I apologize for my lack of information.

[abuck1220]

sorry to be late to clarify.

 

What I was merely pointing out (and this is older information) but back when we were comparing Marshall to Hill, the numbers of runs in each start was either very good (3 or less) or very bad (5 or more).

 

that's the case with like 99% of pitchers. you realize there's only one situation (giving up 4) that doesn't qualify as very good or very bad according to your standards, right?

[Sammy Sofa]

Seet sassy molassy, Hill looked like an ace last night! That start was a thing of beauty!

 

More, please.