zambrano signs

[CubFanPhilly]

...You know, given the decline in Zambrano's walk rate and the most likely underlying issue...

 

I think this the most troubling aspect of the signing. It's high for an ace pitcher across the board. But is it really a decline?

 

Zambrano's BB/9: 5.2, 4.0, 3.5, 3.5, 4.8, 4.1

 

Any comparison to Pedro breaks down when you compare BB/9:

 

Martinez at the same ages: 4.8, 2.8, 3.1, 2.9, 2.5, 2.6

[Guest]

...You know, given the decline in Zambrano's walk rate and the most likely underlying issue...

 

I think this the most troubling aspect of the signing. It's high for an ace pitcher across the board. But is it really a decline?

 

Zambrano's BB/9: 5.2, 4.0, 3.5, 3.5, 4.8, 4.1

 

Any comparison to Pedro breaks down when you compare BB/9:

 

Martinez at the same ages: 4.8, 2.8, 3.1, 2.9, 2.5, 2.6

 

or if you compare body type. Z doesn't need to be pedro good - you have to remember that pedro was probably the greatest or at least on of the greatest pitchers ever in his best years.

[Mephistopheles]

Who are the two 45 million dollar pitchers? Even with the ability to use Marshall + prospects that can be dealt because of depth created by the picks Z got us, I don't see it.

 

They sure aren't in the 08 free agent market.

 

 

eh i didnt mean in the FA market. trades etc. Crap it doesnt even have to be pitchers. My point was that Zambrano, while being a top pitcher, doesnt justify 90+ because of his injury risk. we can spend the same amount of cash and help the team just as much if not more with lower risk. Im not saying who what when how but it starts with a man named Dunn. The Cubs, as you know, aren't buying good deals, theyre buying bad deals. Theyre not spending money wisely. Even the Cubs have limits on their purses.

[Guest]

Who are the two 45 million dollar pitchers? Even with the ability to use Marshall + prospects that can be dealt because of depth created by the picks Z got us, I don't see it.

 

They sure aren't in the 08 free agent market.

 

 

eh i didnt mean in the FA market. trades etc. Crap it doesnt even have to be pitchers. My point was that Zambrano, while being a top pitcher, doesnt justify 90+ because of his injury risk. we can spend the same amount of cash and help the team just as much if not more with lower risk. Im not saying who what when how but it starts with a man named Dunn.

 

I don't think that's a valid statement unless you can identify the pitchers. They just don't exist. While there is considerable risk with this contract, this was a deal the Cubs had to make. There simply isn't a replacement available.

[Mephistopheles]

lets see, my prognosis for Marshall next year is a 5 or so era and for Zambrano, the high threes so we're looking for two pitchers who can put up an era in mid 4s on average.

 

oh there's jake westbrook. that's one. westbrook probably wont be getting lilly money since hes having a down season. then we can have carlos silva. he's probably going to get less than lilly money as well. we'd, of course, still have plenty of money to spend on say adam dunn, a real catcher, etc. westbrook and silva would combine for an ERA in the low to mid 4s, pretty damn close to the likely scenario with zambrano and marshall.

[OBPMatters]

Westbrook signed a 3 year extension in April.

[Mephistopheles]

meh @ cots contracts. i forgot, but you get my point. there are others.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Carlos Silva? Why would we want to give him a long term deal? He's not an awful pitcher, but no K's, a lot of HR, and decidedly sub-par numbers away from the turf.

 

And who are the others? That's kinda the point. I agree it'd be better to allocate resources that way, but that type of pitcher just isn't really available. If Silva's the type of guy we're paying 4 years, 30-45 million too, I'll take my chances with Z's health.

[Outshined_One]

Does anyone know for sure if that 6th year is a player option (i.e. Zambrano can choose to exercise it) or if it's a vested option (Zambrano has to reach certain milestones for it to trigger)? I've seen conflicting reports on that.

[BCVM22]

Does anyone know for sure if that 6th year is a player option (i.e. Zambrano can choose to exercise it) or if it's a vested option (Zambrano has to reach certain milestones for it to trigger)? I've seen conflicting reports on that.

 

Per one of the AP reports,

 

He has a full no-trade clause and gets a $5 million signing bonus. If he finishes first or second in Cy Young Award voting in 2011 or finishes in the top four in Cy Young balloting in 2012 and is healthy at the end of the fifth year, he has the option for a sixth year at $19.25 million.

 

Seems like a really odd way to vest an option, but that's our Z.

[Jazz]

Does anyone know for sure if that 6th year is a player option (i.e. Zambrano can choose to exercise it) or if it's a vested option (Zambrano has to reach certain milestones for it to trigger)? I've seen conflicting reports on that.

 

Per one of the AP reports,

 

He has a full no-trade clause and gets a $5 million signing bonus. If he finishes first or second in Cy Young Award voting in 2011 or finishes in the top four in Cy Young balloting in 2012 and is healthy at the end of the fifth year, he has the option for a sixth year at $19.25 million.

 

Seems like a really odd way to vest an option, but that's our Z.

 

I like it.

[Flames24Rulz]

lets see, my prognosis for Marshall next year is a 5 or so era and for Zambrano, the high threes so we're looking for two pitchers who can put up an era in mid 4s on average.

 

oh there's jake westbrook. that's one. westbrook probably wont be getting lilly money since hes having a down season. then we can have carlos silva. he's probably going to get less than lilly money as well. we'd, of course, still have plenty of money to spend on say adam dunn, a real catcher, etc. westbrook and silva would combine for an ERA in the low to mid 4s, pretty damn close to the likely scenario with zambrano and marshall.

 

Adam Dunn is NOT a FA after this season.

 

If you get rid of Zambrano, you have many more problems than just a catcher to fill (which has been the least of our worries lately). Silva is an average pitcher at his best. Like I said earlier, it would not make sense to just let Zambrano walk away for nothing when there is absolutely nothing else there on the market. Nothing on this market is going to come close to the production that Zambrano gives you.

[Omar]

Sometimes this board makes me happy that Jim Hendry is our GM. That's pretty sad.

[Brian]

Even if Zambrano destroys his right arm, get him a lefty glove and put him in the outfield. Len said that sometimes he shags fly balls the day after he pitches as a lefty.

 

Heck he could probably also be an adequate LOOGY (although an 18million dollar LOOGY is a bit overkill ;))

[Mizzou]

LOL at anyone who is complaining about this deal.

 

If you don't like this contract, you need to watch more Cubs games.

[Omar]

LOL at anyone who is complaining about this deal.

 

If you don't like this contract, you need to watch more Cubs games.

 

But he's due for an injury, dude.

[RynoRules]

I'll give it a try: zero. The only stat you need.

 

 

 

 

 

That's the number of big money, five year deals for pitchers that have really worked out well for the team who signs the pitcher for the duration of the deal.

 

 

 

btw - I still would have signed Z to the contract and I'm happy to have him on board. It's a huge risk, but one that had to be taken at this point.

 

I posted this in another thread, but I think this was a good job of negotiating by JH. You have to give something to get something.

 

Cubs get: An ace pitcher for all of the peak years of his career at a below-mkt price per yr.

 

Z gets: Extra guarateed yrs on his contract at a rate that he may not "earn" during the last two to three years of the deal.

 

That's negotiating in a nutshell.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Zambranos signing gives Cubs nation more than an ace for the next 5-6 years. It gives us hope. Before yesterday, Zambranos future was 50/50 at best. Sure, he could have kep telling reporters that he was 90-97% sure hed stay, but I guarantee, if they had made him wait until the new ownership was decided, it would have been hard for him, or more importantly his agent to turn away the 150 mil or whatever that the Yanks or Mets would have thrown at him.

 

Now we have hope that despite the limbo of ownership, the organization isnt going to implod on itself, and hopefully make a major aquisition or 2 in the winter. A-Rod in a Cubs uni would be all the Chistmas presents Id need.

 

1. 2B Theriot

2. LF Soriano

3. SS A-Rod

4. 3B A-Ram

5. 1B Lee

6. CF Jones

7. RF DeRosa

8. C Soto/ Kendall

9. P

 

Wow

[Sammy Sofa]

Zambranos signing gives Cubs nation more than an ace for the next 5-6 years. It gives us hope. Before yesterday, Zambranos future was 50/50 at best. Sure, he could have kep telling reporters that he was 90-97% sure hed stay, but I guarantee, if they had made him wait until the new ownership was decided, it would have been hard for him, or more importantly his agent to turn away the 150 mil or whatever that the Yanks or Mets would have thrown at him.

 

Now we have hope that despite the limbo of ownership, the organization isnt going to implod on itself, and hopefully make a major aquisition or 2 in the winter. A-Rod in a Cubs uni would be all the Chistmas presents Id need.

 

1. 2B Theriot

2. LF Soriano

3. SS A-Rod

4. 3B A-Ram

5. 1B Lee

6. CF Jones

7. RF DeRosa

8. C Soto/ Kendall

9. P

 

Wow

 

I'd flip Lee and Soriano.

 

And trade Jock in the off season. Let his his hopefully continuing hot streak net us something nice in return.

[David]

Zambranos signing gives Cubs nation more than an ace for the next 5-6 years. It gives us hope. Before yesterday, Zambranos future was 50/50 at best. Sure, he could have kep telling reporters that he was 90-97% sure hed stay, but I guarantee, if they had made him wait until the new ownership was decided, it would have been hard for him, or more importantly his agent to turn away the 150 mil or whatever that the Yanks or Mets would have thrown at him.

 

Now we have hope that despite the limbo of ownership, the organization isnt going to implod on itself, and hopefully make a major aquisition or 2 in the winter. A-Rod in a Cubs uni would be all the Chistmas presents Id need.

 

1. 2B Theriot

2. LF Soriano

3. SS A-Rod

4. 3B A-Ram

5. 1B Lee

6. CF Jones

7. RF DeRosa

8. C Soto/ Kendall

9. P

 

Wow

 

I love Theriot and all, but that lineup would be better off with DeRo at 2B and even an average producing RF. Maybe long term, you'd rather have Theriot at 2B than DeRo, but yea.

 

DeRo at 2B and average RF > Theriot at 2B and DeRo in RF

 

That lineup is a wet dream though, either way, with ARod at SS. I'll take it every day of the week.

[RyCubsFan]

Zambranos signing gives Cubs nation more than an ace for the next 5-6 years. It gives us hope. Before yesterday, Zambranos future was 50/50 at best. Sure, he could have kep telling reporters that he was 90-97% sure hed stay, but I guarantee, if they had made him wait until the new ownership was decided, it would have been hard for him, or more importantly his agent to turn away the 150 mil or whatever that the Yanks or Mets would have thrown at him.

 

Now we have hope that despite the limbo of ownership, the organization isnt going to implod on itself, and hopefully make a major aquisition or 2 in the winter. A-Rod in a Cubs uni would be all the Chistmas presents Id need.

 

1. 2B Theriot

2. LF Soriano

3. SS A-Rod

4. 3B A-Ram

5. 1B Lee

6. CF Jones

7. RF DeRosa

8. C Soto/ Kendall

9. P

 

Wow

 

I love Theriot and all, but that lineup would be better off with DeRo at 2B and even an average producing RF. Maybe long term, you'd rather have Theriot at 2B than DeRo, but yea.

 

DeRo at 2B and average RF > Theriot at 2B and DeRo in RF

 

That lineup is a wet dream though, either way, with ARod at SS. I'll take it every day of the week.

 

 

Yeah, but Theriot's cheap. Then again, Murton in RF would be cheep too.

 

I'd take Pie in CF next year too. Trade Jones in the offseason. Having Soto, Pie, and either Theriot or Murton in the lineup allows you to afford going after Arod.

[shnsajax]

Zambranos signing gives Cubs nation more than an ace for the next 5-6 years. It gives us hope. Before yesterday, Zambranos future was 50/50 at best. Sure, he could have kep telling reporters that he was 90-97% sure hed stay, but I guarantee, if they had made him wait until the new ownership was decided, it would have been hard for him, or more importantly his agent to turn away the 150 mil or whatever that the Yanks or Mets would have thrown at him.

 

Now we have hope that despite the limbo of ownership, the organization isnt going to implod on itself, and hopefully make a major aquisition or 2 in the winter. A-Rod in a Cubs uni would be all the Chistmas presents Id need.

 

1. 2B Theriot

2. LF Soriano

3. SS A-Rod

4. 3B A-Ram

5. 1B Lee

6. CF Jones

7. RF DeRosa

8. C Soto/ Kendall

9. P

 

Wow

 

I love Theriot and all, but that lineup would be better off with DeRo at 2B and even an average producing RF. Maybe long term, you'd rather have Theriot at 2B than DeRo, but yea.

 

DeRo at 2B and average RF > Theriot at 2B and DeRo in RF

 

That lineup is a wet dream though, either way, with ARod at SS. I'll take it every day of the week.

 

 

Yeah, but Theriot's cheap. Then again, Murton in RF would be cheep too.

 

I'd take Pie in CF next year too. Trade Jones in the offseason. Having Soto, Pie, and either Theriot or Murton in the lineup allows you to afford going after Arod.

 

or Miggy with an extension and a sponsership with Nutrisystem.

[RynoRules]

Its easy to have this opinion after the fact. Wonder what he would have said had they let him walk:

 

Smart money says, and at least one highly placed Major League Baseball official agrees, the Cubs would have been better off letting Zambrano walk than giving him a five-year contract at a record salary level for a starting pitcher.

 

Rogers' 20-20 hindsight

[Banedon]

Its easy to have this opinion after the fact. Wonder what he would have said had they let him walk:

 

Smart money says, and at least one highly placed Major League Baseball official agrees, the Cubs would have been better off letting Zambrano walk than giving him a five-year contract at a record salary level for a starting pitcher.

 

Rogers' 20-20 hindsight

 

But that article also admits that tons of teams are doing this now...if the Cubs didn't, someone else was going to, and I guarantee the crying from the media about Zambrano leaving and the crap that the Cubs would have had replacing him would be a HUGE amount more than the crying about this deal.

[wvcbxl]

... and I guarantee the crying from the media about Zambrano leaving and the crap that the Cubs would have had replacing him would be a HUGE amount more than the crying about this deal.

 

I agree.

No matter what decision the Cubs would have made about Zambrano (sign him, let him walk, trade him), the media would have complained about it.

 

From a PR perspective, this decision was the best possible.

Five (or six) years from now, we'll know how it turned out on the baseball side.