Dunn rumor on BCB...

[Mizzou]

I would treat this rumor like a rumor from MLBTradeRumors.com.

 

Which is what you should do.

Well, I guess that's that. So much for this rumor. Now we all know it's not true.

[Alfonso Soriano]

Someone asked about this on ESPN1000 and they shot it down.

[TruffleShuffle]

my dog just talked to bruce levine, and he verified that a deal for adam dunn is close

[E.J.]

my dog just talked to bruce levine, and he verified that a deal for adam dunn is close

 

that's funny. my dog just told me he wants his balls back.

[Coach C]

my dog just talked to bruce levine, and he verified that a deal for adam dunn is close

 

So, did he go like "WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF!"?

 

Or was it this?

 

"WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! (snarl) WOOF! WOOF! WOOF!"?

[Skyballer]

my dog just talked to bruce levine, and he verified that a deal for adam dunn is close

 

So, did he go like "WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF!"?

 

Or was it this?

 

"WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! WOOF! (snarl) WOOF! WOOF! WOOF!"?

my guess is the latter

[davearm]

Except over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800.

 

This guy's been a very poor finisher two years in a row, folks.

 

But that's not true.

 

August - End of Season

2004: .254/.348/.563/.911

2005: .237/.370/.438/.808

2006: .176/.299/.346/.645

I didn't say *each* of the last three seasons, I said *over* the last three seasons.

 

Weight those three OPS numbers by plate appearances, and you get 797.

 

Ergo the conclusion, over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800.

 

Put it this way -- if we knew for sure that the Cubs would get one of those three numbers from Dunn (911, 808, 645), then the enthusiasm level around here would decline dramatically.

[seanimal]

The difference between a 798 and 800 OPS is practically nothing. Let's just assume that Dunn performs to last year's numbers, how does that compare to our current options? I'll take Dunn, thankyouverymuch.

 

This discussion is pointless anyway, Dunn is 99% likely to not be a Cub come August 1st.

[GaborBako]

Except over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800.

 

This guy's been a very poor finisher two years in a row, folks.

 

But that's not true.

 

August - End of Season

2004: .254/.348/.563/.911

2005: .237/.370/.438/.808

2006: .176/.299/.346/.645

 

Wow, that's quite the trend line.

[CoolHandLuke]

If we manage to trade for Adam Dunn I'll change my name to DouchebagMcGee. Until then let's put away the drugs and stop proposing Dunn trades.

 

you can't both have the same user name!

[davearm]

The difference between a 798 and 800 OPS is practically nothing. Let's just assume that Dunn performs to last year's numbers, how does that compare to our current options? I'll take Dunn, thankyouverymuch.

 

This discussion is pointless anyway, Dunn is 99% likely to not be a Cub come August 1st.

Sean you said something about Dunn's bat would be worth it even if he played in the OF with his back to the plate (paraphrasing).

 

Still feel that way, after seeing how Dunn has hit down the stretch the last few years?

[CoolHandLuke]

The difference between a 798 and 800 OPS is practically nothing. Let's just assume that Dunn performs to last year's numbers, how does that compare to our current options? I'll take Dunn, thankyouverymuch.

 

This discussion is pointless anyway, Dunn is 99% likely to not be a Cub come August 1st.

Sean you said something about Dunn's bat would be worth it even if he played in the OF with his back to the plate (paraphrasing).

 

Still feel that way, after seeing how Dunn has hit down the stretch the last few years?

 

Is there any predictive value to before/after all-star break splits?

[seanimal]

The difference between a 798 and 800 OPS is practically nothing. Let's just assume that Dunn performs to last year's numbers, how does that compare to our current options? I'll take Dunn, thankyouverymuch.

 

This discussion is pointless anyway, Dunn is 99% likely to not be a Cub come August 1st.

Sean you said something about Dunn's bat would be worth it even if he played in the OF with his back to the plate (paraphrasing).

 

Still feel that way, after seeing how Dunn has hit down the stretch the last few years?

 

One bad year dude. One. .808 isn't spectacular, but I really only see one bad year, er, two months.

 

I'd much rather bank on that not being a legitimate trend then pass up the opportunity to get him just because he didn't do so hot the last couple of Augusts.

 

Again, that being said, I don't think we'll get Dunn, and I'm not sure renting him for two months is worth the cost. I'd much rather get Nady and Lofton if it means that we can ship off Jones in the process and still have a cheap, semi-productive outfielder next year.

 

By the way, I don't mean to say that the numbers you present aren't valid to the discussion, just to say they haven't convinced me that Dunn wouldn't contribute more that what we have.

 

And, it's not like he would field any better when he's facing the plate anyway.

[reds44]

I'm not going to bash this guy for no other reason then I have been in his shoes before. With that being said, I don't think it has any merit to it and I don't believe any more or less then I did when I left for the Chiefs game this afternoon that Dunn will or will not be traded.

 

The last two things I heard about Dunn was the Nationals rumor and Yankees rumor, both from Ken Rosenthal. As many pointed out, the Nats one is fishy. Also, the Yankees one was based off of the Reds scouting the Yankees A ball team. To me, that would be more of an indication of a possible Hatteberg or Weathers deal then Dunn deal.

 

I have yet to hear anything about Dunn to the Cubs. I've heard Brewers, Yankees, Nationals, both L.A. teams, and the Padres but no mention of the Cubs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Except over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800.

 

This guy's been a very poor finisher two years in a row, folks.

 

But that's not true.

 

August - End of Season

2004: .254/.348/.563/.911

2005: .237/.370/.438/.808

2006: .176/.299/.346/.645

I didn't say *each* of the last three seasons, I said *over* the last three seasons.

 

Weight those three OPS numbers by plate appearances, and you get 797.

 

Ergo the conclusion, over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800.

 

Put it this way -- if we knew for sure that the Cubs would get one of those three numbers from Dunn (911, 808, 645), then the enthusiasm level around here would decline dramatically.

 

You averaged them? I'd say that's not very intellectually honest. Your original point was implying that Dunn was not as good a hitter down the stretch. Given that time-driven splits aren't reliable to begin with, there'd need to be a consistent drop in performance for it to have any merit. That obviously hasn't been the case. To use an average is to put extra emphasis on the outlier of last year.

 

As far as "trend lines" go, given what I just said about the reliability of timed splits, there would have to be some sort of cause for him to somehow be declining in his ability to hit after the deadline. Unless there's something you can point to that would cause him to heavily wear down after July, we have to assume that last year is an outlier.

[Rusch33]

I'm not going to bash this guy for no other reason then I have been in his shoes before. With that being said, I don't think it has any merit to it and I don't believe any more or less then I did when I left for the Chiefs game this afternoon that Dunn will or will not be traded.

 

The last two things I heard about Dunn was the Nationals rumor and Yankees rumor, both from Ken Rosenthal. As many pointed out, the Nats one is fishy. Also, the Yankees one was based off of the Reds scouting the Yankees A ball team. To me, that would be more of an indication of a possible Hatteberg or Weathers deal then Dunn deal.

 

I have yet to hear anything about Dunn to the Cubs. I've heard Brewers, Yankees, Nationals, both L.A. teams, and the Padres but no mention of the Cubs.

 

What about fellow outfielder Ken Griffey Jr?

[Flames24Rulz]

I'd absolutely love either Griffey or Dunn here. That being said, it's too good to be true. I'm not getting my hopes up on this rumor.

[reds44]

I'm not going to bash this guy for no other reason then I have been in his shoes before. With that being said, I don't think it has any merit to it and I don't believe any more or less then I did when I left for the Chiefs game this afternoon that Dunn will or will not be traded.

 

The last two things I heard about Dunn was the Nationals rumor and Yankees rumor, both from Ken Rosenthal. As many pointed out, the Nats one is fishy. Also, the Yankees one was based off of the Reds scouting the Yankees A ball team. To me, that would be more of an indication of a possible Hatteberg or Weathers deal then Dunn deal.

 

I have yet to hear anything about Dunn to the Cubs. I've heard Brewers, Yankees, Nationals, both L.A. teams, and the Padres but no mention of the Cubs.

 

What about fellow outfielder Ken Griffey Jr?

Nothin much lately. The last I heard is that he had given the Reds a list of teams he would improve a trade to, and that the Cubs and Braves are on the list.

 

I don't see him being traded though.

[davearm]

Except over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800.

 

This guy's been a very poor finisher two years in a row, folks.

 

But that's not true.

 

August - End of Season

2004: .254/.348/.563/.911

2005: .237/.370/.438/.808

2006: .176/.299/.346/.645

I didn't say *each* of the last three seasons, I said *over* the last three seasons.

 

Weight those three OPS numbers by plate appearances, and you get 797.

 

Ergo the conclusion, over the last three seasons, Dunn's OPS for the months of August and September is below 800.

 

Put it this way -- if we knew for sure that the Cubs would get one of those three numbers from Dunn (911, 808, 645), then the enthusiasm level around here would decline dramatically.

 

You averaged them? I'd say that's not very intellectually honest. Your original point was implying that Dunn was not as good a hitter down the stretch. Given that time-driven splits aren't reliable to begin with, there'd need to be a consistent drop in performance for it to have any merit. That obviously hasn't been the case. To use an average is to put extra emphasis on the outlier of last year.

 

As far as "trend lines" go, given what I just said about the reliability of timed splits, there would have to be some sort of cause for him to somehow be declining in his ability to hit after the deadline. Unless there's something you can point to that would cause him to heavily wear down after July, we have to assume that last year is an outlier.

Not very intellectually honest?

 

It was a quick way to boil down Dunn's late-season production over the last three years to a single OPS number. I surely could go to the trouble of tallying up the guy's hits, walks, HBP, TBs, etc etc and get the true OPS number, but it wouldn't be very different from the 797 figure. In fact it might be exactly the same.

 

Nobody seems to dispute the notion that Carlos Zambrano is a notoriously slow starter, and a cursory look at his April stats over recent years confirms this. I don't hear anyone questioning the validity of those time-based splits. It's mostly just become an accepted truth.

 

Zambrano ERA by month, 2004-2007:

April 4.86

May 2.59

June 3.12

July 2.91

August 2.94

September 3.03

 

 

So why is there a problem with the notion that Dunn is a notoriously slow finisher, when a cursory look at his August and September stats over recent years confirms this?

 

Dunn OPS by month, 2004-2007:

April 1.070

May 0.852

June 0.949

July 0.981

August 0.836

September 0.760

 

August + September aggregate = 0.799

 

To use an average is to put extra emphasis on the outlier of last year.

Wha?

 

If I wanted to put extra emphasis on the outlier of last year, I would simply say, "Dunn had a 645 OPS last year," and leave it at that.

 

Averaging that 06 figure with other years actually helps to hide how horrible he was last year. That would be de-emphasizing 06.

[Sarcastic]

No, he has a point about the average misrepresenting the whole. His previous year's poor play at the end of the season drops his average OPS below .800, when in two of the three yeasr, his OPS in August and Sept. was above .800, including a .900+ two month stretch. Based on the fact that, as noted before, time based splits are often not predictive, especially when, as you see with Dunn's splits, they aren't consistent to begin with, I'd bet that he'd be closer to his season OPS over the last two months than his three year average in Aug-Sept.

 

Later on in his career, he may establish some pattern, become a better first or second half player. Right now, we have one very good second half, one solid one, and one terrible one to go on. I don't see any convincing evidence.

[XZero771679666304]

Wha?

 

If I wanted to put extra emphasis on the outlier of last year, I would simply say, "Dunn had a 645 OPS last year," and leave it at that.

 

Averaging that 06 figure with other years actually helps to hide how horrible he was last year. That would be de-emphasizing 06.

 

Actually, putting an outlier as far from the norm as .645 into your average is more emphatic than simply stating it. If you look at the OPS' individually, the .645 simply appears to be a fluke. Seeing an average OPS under .800 is far more dramatic.

 

And for the record, I think it is quite clear that Dunn is regressing as far as his overall OPS, as well as his second half OPS.

 

But averaging the .645 in is somewhat deceiving. How he performs down the stretch this year will determine if it was a fluke or a predictor.

[davearm]

No, he has a point about the average misrepresenting the whole. His previous year's poor play at the end of the season drops his average OPS below .800, when in two of the three yeasr, his OPS in August and Sept. was above .800, including a .900+ two month stretch. Based on the fact that, as noted before, time based splits are often not predictive, especially when, as you see with Dunn's splits, they aren't consistent to begin with, I'd bet that he'd be closer to his season OPS over the last two months than his three year average in Aug-Sept.

 

Later on in his career, he may establish some pattern, become a better first or second half player. Right now, we have one very good second half, one solid one, and one terrible one to go on. I don't see any convincing evidence.

The 2004-2007 monthly splits I put up are based on ~2000 ABs.

 

The .799 for August + September is based on 570 ABs.

 

You're not going to get very far (not with me at least) arguing that these sample sizes aren't large enough to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over.

[XZero771679666304]

No, he has a point about the average misrepresenting the whole. His previous year's poor play at the end of the season drops his average OPS below .800, when in two of the three yeasr, his OPS in August and Sept. was above .800, including a .900+ two month stretch. Based on the fact that, as noted before, time based splits are often not predictive, especially when, as you see with Dunn's splits, they aren't consistent to begin with, I'd bet that he'd be closer to his season OPS over the last two months than his three year average in Aug-Sept.

 

Later on in his career, he may establish some pattern, become a better first or second half player. Right now, we have one very good second half, one solid one, and one terrible one to go on. I don't see any convincing evidence.

The 2004-2007 monthly splits I put up are based on ~2000 ABs.

 

The .799 for August + September is based on 570 ABs.

 

You're not going to get very far (not with me at least) arguing that these sample sizes aren't large enough to draw any meaningful conclusions.

 

At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over.

 

You right in predicting that we probably wouldn't get a .900+ OPS, but probably wrong in thinking it would be nearly as low as .797.

 

That .645 appears flukish.

[seanimal]

At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over.

 

Incorrect. That is not the bare minimum of conclusions. The bare minimum of conclusions is to believe that these numbers that you outline are meaningless. What you present is the worst case scenario, that he will continue 'trending' downward in the later months of the season, which is problematic for the reasons that TT states.

[XZero771679666304]

At a bare minimum, there's strong reason to suspect that if Dunn were to come here, he wouldn't deliver the phenomenal 900+ OPS numbers everyone is all gaga over.

 

Incorrect. That is not the bare minimum of conclusions. The bare minimum of conclusions is to believe that these numbers that you outline are meaningless. What you present is the worst case scenario, that he will continue 'trending' downward in the later months of the season, which is problematic for the reasons that TT states.

 

Oh, I think the trend itself is clear, but the severity of it is greatly exaggerated by including the .645 OPS in an average. Even with the preexisting decline, 2006 seems like a fairly extreme outlier.