Just My Gut

[dew1679666265]

that sounds more like logic than a gut feeling. what will decide the cubs post-season is whether or not they can dominate the weak teams in their division. The west and east will beat each other up. also whether they can land another SP, lefty reliever, and/or power hitting corner outfielder.

 

What do we need another SP for? Every single one has done his job.

 

Looking into a Playoff Rotation are you comfortable with anyone we have as our #3 starter. Zambrano is great, Lilly is solid, but after that I am little uncertain. Hill could easily run away with it with a solid August and September, but right now its anyone guess.

 

I wouldn't pay a lot for another reliever unless the Reds demand Marshall in the Griffey or Dunn trades. Otherwise I'm fine with a Z, Lilly, Hill for the top three and then if Hill shows any sign of struggling, you've got Marquis and Marshall available in the pen. I'd say any of those three would be dependable for three innings or so.

 

If we got a starter handed to us on a silver platter, though, I'd definitely be very interested. :D

 

Won't happen... doesn't look like any good ones are going to be available. Mike Maroth just might be one of the best SP's dealt this year.

 

What we have is better than what's going to be better.

 

Yeah, I haven't heard of any really good starters available. I'm happy enough with the starters we have right now. So long as the offense keeps performing like it's capable, the pitchers won't have to be dominant every time out. Hopefully they'll at least be able to pick up the offense in low scoring games though.

 

Good starters available? scouts have been following contreras and trachsel around for the last two weeks. theres your market ladies and gentleman! I remember thinking steve trachsel was terrible when i was 15, ten years ago.

 

Yeah, when the two top available starters have ERA+'s in the 80s, the starter market is pitiful.

[TruffleShuffle]

The thing is though, Royals fans don't really give a you know what about ERA's and WHIP as of this point. They are happy that they have a decent pitcher for a change, unlike the jokers that the Royals sent out last year.

 

And I wasn't even mentioning Wins and Losses, not becuase they aren't really relevant, but also that Meche couldn't even get any run support from the Royals offense, especially before July. Meche has had the third-worst run support in the American League. But let's break down that support (or lack thereof) another way. You've heard of quality starts, right? (That's the stat that measures how many times a pitcher gives his team a chance to win a game.)

 

Anyone who's actually watched the Royals knows Gil has performed as a $11 million man. And you gotta keep in mind that the Royals are a small-market team, and to get that kind of production from that money is pretty good.

 

so the market size factors into whether a player is earning the salary that he's being paid? is that baloney served with cheese?

[Guest]

it wouldn't hurt if Zambrano wins CY and Aramis wins MVP.

[weis21]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6493

 

This is not doing your job. If the Cubs hadn't dug themselves a hole, they might be able to afford a fifth starter that is good every fifth or sixth time out. As it is, they need to be dominant the rest of the way and Marquis is not good enough in my mind. Combine that with Marshall and I don't have a ton of confidence in this rotation top to bottom.

 

to be fair, his ERA is under 4.00 again after today, but yeah, he's not exactly a world champion 3rd starter

 

Well to be even more fair, he's never been asked to be a No. 3 starter. He's been a pretty good number 5 guy IMO. Some days he gets rocked, some days he's OK, some days like today he's really good. Take a look at most teams fifth starter, not too many have an ERA under 4. Again, I'm not betting anything on any of his starts, but for a fifth starter he's been pretty good.

 

how many teams have their 5 starter locked up for 3 years/21 mil

 

it's sad to say but that will be the norm really soon for a fifth starter. Contracts are getting really out of control. e.g. Meche 11M per year

 

Problem is, Meche has earned his 11M for this year, without a doubt.

 

Meche earned his 11M (v. 7M Marquis salary), but Marquis hasn't?

 

Meche: ERA: 3.69 WHIP: 1.32

Marquis: ERA: 3.92 WHIP: 1.27

 

I won't mention Wins and Losses because they aren't really relevant.

 

The thing is though, Royals fans don't really give a you know what about ERA's and WHIP as of this point. They are happy that they have a decent pitcher for a change, unlike the jokers that the Royals sent out last year.

 

And I wasn't even mentioning Wins and Losses, not becuase they aren't really relevant, but also that Meche couldn't even get any run support from the Royals offense, especially before July. Meche has had the third-worst run support in the American League. But let's break down that support (or lack thereof) another way. You've heard of quality starts, right? (That's the stat that measures how many times a pitcher gives his team a chance to win a game.)

 

Anyone who's actually watched the Royals knows Gil has performed as a $11 million man. And you gotta keep in mind that the Royals are a small-market team, and to get that kind of production from that money is pretty good.

 

Let me get this straight, and i'm not trying to single you out. But, since the since the Royals have been so terrible in recent memory that Meche has earned his 11M, but since Marquis is the 5th starter on a good team that he hasn't earned his 7M? I'm by no mean saying that 7M for Marquis is a steal, but for the price and market and production, he's been pretty darn good. The nit-picking is understood seeing as how he has either been up or down this year, but overall IMO he has been worth it.

[dew1679666265]

it wouldn't hurt if Zambrano wins CY and Aramis wins MVP.

 

I wouldn't complain much.

[Guest]

I'm not really nit-picking so much as suggesting I don't expect too much from him in the second half. He is sort of shawn estes all over again. My point was that adding another good starter would affect the Cubs chances to win significantly. Whether they can do it, I don't know. Maybe a solid lefty reliever is more important. Eyre and Ohman don't exactly inspire confidence. And I have to wonder when the offense is going to stop getting the timely hits and start to need some power to score runs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

His contract isn't all that great, but what about Javier Vazquez?

[weis21]

I'm not really nit-picking so much as suggesting I don't expect too much from him in the second half. He is sort of shawn estes all over again. My point was that adding another good starter would affect the Cubs chances to win significantly. Whether they can do it, I don't know. Maybe a solid lefty reliever is more important. Eyre and Ohman don't exactly inspire confidence. And I have to wonder when the offense is going to stop getting the timely hits and start to need some power to score runs.

 

Well see, Shawn Estes had a 5.73 ERA with the cubs that year and never had an ERA under 4 for a year. Which gets back to my point, he's not a solid No. 2 or 3 pitcher, but he's pretty solid for a no. 5.

[NCCubFan]

Well see, Shawn Estes had a 5.73 ERA with the cubs that year and never had an ERA under 4 for a year. Which gets back to my point, he's not a solid No. 2 or 3 pitcher, but he's pretty solid for a no. 5.

1996 and 1997 just called. They beg to differ with you.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/e/estessh01.shtml

[Guest]

I'm not really nit-picking so much as suggesting I don't expect too much from him in the second half. He is sort of shawn estes all over again. My point was that adding another good starter would affect the Cubs chances to win significantly. Whether they can do it, I don't know. Maybe a solid lefty reliever is more important. Eyre and Ohman don't exactly inspire confidence. And I have to wonder when the offense is going to stop getting the timely hits and start to need some power to score runs.

 

Well see, Shawn Estes had a 5.73 ERA with the cubs that year and never had an ERA under 4 for a year. Which gets back to my point, he's not a solid No. 2 or 3 pitcher, but he's pretty solid for a no. 5.

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

[CubsWin]

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

I'm not getting in the middle of your Marquis debate, just wanted to point out that since June 3rd, the day after Piniella's eruption and the day his suspension began, the Cubs have averaged 5.02 runs per game.

[Bote McBoteface]

I'm just hoping the Dodgers and Padres beat up on eachother and let us walk away with the wild-card. Though I certainly will not complain if we win the division.

[Coach C]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6493

 

This is not doing your job. If the Cubs hadn't dug themselves a hole, they might be able to afford a fifth starter that is good every fifth or sixth time out. As it is, they need to be dominant the rest of the way and Marquis is not good enough in my mind. Combine that with Marshall and I don't have a ton of confidence in this rotation top to bottom.

 

to be fair, his ERA is under 4.00 again after today, but yeah, he's not exactly a world champion 3rd starter

 

Well to be even more fair, he's never been asked to be a No. 3 starter. He's been a pretty good number 5 guy IMO. Some days he gets rocked, some days he's OK, some days like today he's really good. Take a look at most teams fifth starter, not too many have an ERA under 4. Again, I'm not betting anything on any of his starts, but for a fifth starter he's been pretty good.

 

how many teams have their 5 starter locked up for 3 years/21 mil

 

it's sad to say but that will be the norm really soon for a fifth starter. Contracts are getting really out of control. e.g. Meche 11M per year

 

Problem is, Meche has earned his 11M for this year, without a doubt.

 

Meche earned his 11M (v. 7M Marquis salary), but Marquis hasn't?

 

Meche: ERA: 3.69 WHIP: 1.32

Marquis: ERA: 3.92 WHIP: 1.27

 

I won't mention Wins and Losses because they aren't really relevant.

 

The thing is though, Royals fans don't really give a you know what about ERA's and WHIP as of this point. They are happy that they have a decent pitcher for a change, unlike the jokers that the Royals sent out last year.

 

And I wasn't even mentioning Wins and Losses, not becuase they aren't really relevant, but also that Meche couldn't even get any run support from the Royals offense, especially before July. Meche has had the third-worst run support in the American League. But let's break down that support (or lack thereof) another way. You've heard of quality starts, right? (That's the stat that measures how many times a pitcher gives his team a chance to win a game.)

 

Anyone who's actually watched the Royals knows Gil has performed as a $11 million man. And you gotta keep in mind that the Royals are a small-market team, and to get that kind of production from that money is pretty good.

 

Let me get this straight, and i'm not trying to single you out. But, since the since the Royals have been so terrible in recent memory that Meche has earned his 11M, but since Marquis is the 5th starter on a good team that he hasn't earned his 7M? I'm by no mean saying that 7M for Marquis is a steal, but for the price and market and production, he's been pretty darn good. The nit-picking is understood seeing as how he has either been up or down this year, but overall IMO he has been worth it.

 

I'm not saying that Marquis hasn't earned his 7M. Some days he has looked like he did. Some other days where he just got bombed. I'm just saying that Meche have earned his fair share of his deal, without a doubt. As for Marquis, you can make a arguement either way.

[Banedon]

I'm not really nit-picking so much as suggesting I don't expect too much from him in the second half. He is sort of shawn estes all over again. My point was that adding another good starter would affect the Cubs chances to win significantly. Whether they can do it, I don't know. Maybe a solid lefty reliever is more important. Eyre and Ohman don't exactly inspire confidence. And I have to wonder when the offense is going to stop getting the timely hits and start to need some power to score runs.

 

Well see, Shawn Estes had a 5.73 ERA with the cubs that year and never had an ERA under 4 for a year. Which gets back to my point, he's not a solid No. 2 or 3 pitcher, but he's pretty solid for a no. 5.

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

 

Well see, I'm not sure there's gonna be anyone available on the trade block that's going to pitch any better. And it's not like Milwaukee has gangbusters pitching...

 

ERA's of the Brewers starters

Yovani Gallardo - 2.34 (only 34.2 innings though)

laudio Vargas - 4.47

Dave Bush - 4.84

Jeff Suppan - 4.92

Chris Capuano - 4.96

 

That's why Sheets is so important for them. Nobody else that's started significantly has an era under 4!

 

Meanwhile we have:

 

Lilly - 3.58

Z - 3.69

Hill - 3.70

Marquis - 3.92

Marshall - 3.43 (Only 57.2 innings)

 

The only starting staffs in baseball with an overall better ERA than the Cubs are San Diego and Oakland.

 

I just have a hard time nit-picking our starting staff right now. Bad outings are going to happen. Marquis has had a few, no question. And maybe he really is our #5 starter right now. I think there's a lot of teams right now that would take a 3.92 ERA and 7-5 record out of their #5 starter.

[weis21]

sorry, guess i didn't look that high up on estes career stats. He never had an ERA under 4 after the age of 25. I'm not going to argue the Marquis thing again. He's been very bad at times, very good at times. IMO, most fifth starters are. The cubs could add a more reliable starter, but it would be very expensive. They have other needs that probably need to be addressed first in my opinion.

[Guest]

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

I'm not getting in the middle of your Marquis debate, just wanted to point out that since June 3rd, the day after Piniella's eruption and the day his suspension began, the Cubs have averaged 5.02 runs per game.

 

which means they aren't scoring 5+ everyday.

[rawaction]

I'd love the Cubs to get another starter. Obviously, Marquis is gonna be in the rotation because of his contract, but if the Cubs can upgrade from Marshall (hard to upgrade what he has done, but I'm thinking about how he probably projects to wear down a little) and then trade Marshall in a package to upgrade the offense, then it's a no brainer.

[MPrior]

Meche earned his 11M (v. 7M Marquis salary), but Marquis hasn't?

 

Meche: ERA: 3.69 WHIP: 1.32

- AL Central (you know, the best division in baseball in the league with the DH)

Marquis: ERA: 3.92 WHIP: 1.27

- NL Central, probably the worst division in baseball

[Electron Blue]

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

I'm not getting in the middle of your Marquis debate, just wanted to point out that since June 3rd, the day after Piniella's eruption and the day his suspension began, the Cubs have averaged 5.02 runs per game.

 

which means they aren't scoring 5+ everyday.

 

yep. and you know what an ERA of 5.00 would mean...?

 

if we're predicting a player's/team's future performance, what else do we have but averages?

[Derwood]

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

I'm not getting in the middle of your Marquis debate, just wanted to point out that since June 3rd, the day after Piniella's eruption and the day his suspension began, the Cubs have averaged 5.02 runs per game.

 

which means they aren't scoring 5+ everyday.

 

yep. and you know what an ERA of 5.00 would mean...?

 

if we're predicting a player's/team's future performance, what else do we have but averages?

 

well, if we're saying he's only going to go 6 innings per start with a 5.00 ERA, that means he'd be giving up 3 1/3 runs per outing, which means 5+ runs scored would win every game (assuming the bullpen holds on)

[Electron Blue]

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

I'm not getting in the middle of your Marquis debate, just wanted to point out that since June 3rd, the day after Piniella's eruption and the day his suspension began, the Cubs have averaged 5.02 runs per game.

 

which means they aren't scoring 5+ everyday.

 

yep. and you know what an ERA of 5.00 would mean...?

 

if we're predicting a player's/team's future performance, what else do we have but averages?

 

well, if we're saying he's only going to go 6 innings per start with a 5.00 ERA, that means he'd be giving up 3 1/3 runs per outing, which means 5+ runs scored would win every game (assuming the bullpen holds on)

 

huzzah!! Marquis is gonna own the win column in the second half!!!

[Derwood]

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

I'm not getting in the middle of your Marquis debate, just wanted to point out that since June 3rd, the day after Piniella's eruption and the day his suspension began, the Cubs have averaged 5.02 runs per game.

 

which means they aren't scoring 5+ everyday.

 

yep. and you know what an ERA of 5.00 would mean...?

 

if we're predicting a player's/team's future performance, what else do we have but averages?

 

well, if we're saying he's only going to go 6 innings per start with a 5.00 ERA, that means he'd be giving up 3 1/3 runs per outing, which means 5+ runs scored would win every game (assuming the bullpen holds on)

 

huzzah!! Marquis is gonna own the win column in the second half!!!

 

the point is, you can't say 5 runs and a 5.00 ERA are the same.

 

You also can't say that every game will be what the averages say

[Mephistopheles]

5 runs and a 5.00 era aren't the same. 5 runs a game and 5.00 ra would be...for the most part.

[Electron Blue]

 

well, see, Marquis has gone 6 innings three times in last eleven starts. He got off to a good start but the ERA has been steadily rising. In short, he is not reliable to keep the team in the game. He is also likely to end the season with an ERA well above 4 - probably above 5. The offense is not going to score 5+ everyday.

I'm not getting in the middle of your Marquis debate, just wanted to point out that since June 3rd, the day after Piniella's eruption and the day his suspension began, the Cubs have averaged 5.02 runs per game.

 

which means they aren't scoring 5+ everyday.

 

yep. and you know what an ERA of 5.00 would mean...?

 

if we're predicting a player's/team's future performance, what else do we have but averages?

 

well, if we're saying he's only going to go 6 innings per start with a 5.00 ERA, that means he'd be giving up 3 1/3 runs per outing, which means 5+ runs scored would win every game (assuming the bullpen holds on)

 

huzzah!! Marquis is gonna own the win column in the second half!!!

 

the point is, you can't say 5 runs and a 5.00 ERA are the same.

 

You also can't say that every game will be what the averages say

 

oh... are we disagreeing? I was being sarcastic in my first post :)

 

I meant that stichface's assumption was flawed: that marquis's 5.00 ERA would be bad since the cubs don't score 5 runs everyday. Both averages feature totals above and below the number.

 

you're right, though. SInce a 5.00 pitcher doesn't throw 9 in. every start, "he" doesn't give up 5 runs. I didn't get into that specific point since, like I said, I was being facetious. ;)

[IWU_CUBS_FAN]

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6493

 

This is not doing your job. If the Cubs hadn't dug themselves a hole, they might be able to afford a fifth starter that is good every fifth or sixth time out. As it is, they need to be dominant the rest of the way and Marquis is not good enough in my mind. Combine that with Marshall and I don't have a ton of confidence in this rotation top to bottom.

agreed cuz there are a lot of games he had early leads that were pretty sizable against Atlanta and Seattle that he squandered and one big comeback against Houston that saved him from another loss