Do the Cubs have a chance?

[jersey cubs fan]

 

You started it. In post that had a bunch of other points, you decided to take issue with my assertion that the Rockies were "hot".

 

I didn't take issue with it. I assumed they were hot, considering the last I heard of them was the Yankees series. But I just noticed this morning they've lost 3 straight, which means they are no longer hot. They aren't the lowly Rockies some people remember, but they aren't some juggernaut shredding everybody either.

[Warren Brusstar]

 

You started it. In post that had a bunch of other points, you decided to take issue with my assertion that the Rockies were "hot".

 

I didn't take issue with it. I assumed they were hot, considering the last I heard of them was the Yankees series. But I just noticed this morning they've lost 3 straight, which means they are no longer hot. They aren't the lowly Rockies some people remember, but they aren't some juggernaut shredding everybody either.

 

Over their last 30 games, Colorado is playing .667 baseball, which projects to 108 wins over an entire season. I'm comfortable categorizing that as "hot." But if you want to continue to argue, go right ahead.

[TruffleShuffle]

thread veering quickly into the moronic

[NCCubFan]

Cubs have 0 chance still this year.

 

They also have 0 chance in 08 and 09.

Wrong, wrong, and wrong.

[Cubfanintheknow]

Do the Cubs still have a chance?

 

Nope.

 

I mean yes.

 

Wait. No.

 

Well, maybe.

 

Probably not.

 

But they could always.....

 

Nah, it'll never happen.

 

Gimme a week to think about it.

[jaydee]

obviously they have a chance. its friggin june.

[soccer10k]

Of course the Cubs have a chance. It may not be a good one, but they do have a chance.

[Derwood]

thread veering quickly into the moronic

 

...by Goony never being able to just let something go and not be "right" all the time

[ctcf]

thread veering quickly into the moronic

 

...by Goony never being able to just let something go and not be "right" all the time

I was gonna say due to people claiming theres 0 chance for an almost .500 team in late June, but I guess that counts too.

[UMFan83]

The Cubs are 6.5 back in the wild card. With the way the Brewers are playing, unless we sweep them this weekend, we should look at this as our better playoff chance, even with 6 teams to jump

[CubmanPi]

The Cubs are 6.5 back in the wild card. With the way the Brewers are playing, unless we sweep them this weekend, we should look at this as our better playoff chance, even with 6 teams to jump

If the WC is realistic, so is the division. I personally believe that the Brewers at 7.5 is more reachable than the WC spot at 6.5. Bottom line is that no matter what happens, the Cubs have to be better to get there.

[jersey cubs fan]

The Cubs are 6.5 back in the wild card. With the way the Brewers are playing, unless we sweep them this weekend, we should look at this as our better playoff chance, even with 6 teams to jump

If the WC is realistic, so is the division. I personally believe that the Brewers at 7.5 is more reachable than the WC spot at 6.5. Bottom line is that no matter what happens, the Cubs have to be better to get there.

 

Right on. The Cubs just have to leap the Brewers to win the division. They have to leap 2 of Arizona/LA/SD, plus the Rockies, Atlanta and Philly. It's not very realistic to think all 5 of those teams will play at a slow enough pace that the Cubs can pass them.

 

Even if the Cubs don't sweep the Brewers, they have 3 more games against them to make up a pace. Go 4-2 in those games against the Brewers and that makes up 2 games in the standings, then you just have to outpace them by 6 games the rest of the year to win the division. The Cubs have 6 more versus Colorado, plus they play Arizona, LA and Philly. But they are done with SD and Atlanta, so it's a bit more difficult.

[Banedon]

Not to mention the Cubs are still 7 games under .500 in the NL...Interleague really kinda saved their bacon. They're gonna have to play a lot better against NL teams to make a run.

[jersey cubs fan]

Not to mention the Cubs are still 7 games under .500 in the NL...Interleague really kinda saved their bacon. They're gonna have to play a lot better against NL teams to make a run.

 

They have 23 more games against teams that currently have a record above .500. 6 vs MIL, 6 vs AZ, 4 vs PHL, 4 VS LAD and 3 vs NYM.

 

The rest is mainly against the rest of the NL Central. So 64 more games vs .500 or worse teams. If they can take 2 of 3 from all these games, that would be 43-21, leaving them at 79 wins. Have a couple hiccups here and there against those teams and hopefully they can go at least 38-26 (.590 W%). Then you have those 23 games against the good guys. 10-13 against those teams would leave the Cubs at 84 wins. If 5 or 6 of those 10 are against Milwaukee, maybe that's enough. If not, it's probably a bit short.

[Banedon]

Not to mention the Cubs are still 7 games under .500 in the NL...Interleague really kinda saved their bacon. They're gonna have to play a lot better against NL teams to make a run.

 

They have 23 more games against teams that currently have a record above .500. 6 vs MIL, 6 vs AZ, 4 vs PHL, 4 VS LAD and 3 vs NYM.

 

The rest is mainly against the rest of the NL Central. So 64 more games vs .500 or worse teams. If they can take 2 of 3 from all these games, that would be 43-21, leaving them at 79 wins. Have a couple hiccups here and there against those teams and hopefully they can go at least 38-26 (.590 W%). Then you have those 23 games against the good guys. 10-13 against those teams would leave the Cubs at 84 wins. If 5 or 6 of those 10 are against Milwaukee, maybe that's enough. If not, it's probably a bit short.

 

I think the best hope is that Milwaukee goes on another cold stretch like they went through earlier this season.

[badger1679666666]

Why does this team have an uncanny way of sucking you back into them and giving you hope?

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Considering in recent years, teams playing right at .500 ball on LABOR DAY are right there in the wild card, I'd say the Cubs are certainly competitive if they improve their play just a little bit. If they can get to .500 at the ASB, then they'll be setup for a second half run just fine.

 

Of course, they need to execute to make that happen, but it is very doable.

[Fred Hornkohl]

In 2003, after 76 games, the CUBS were 41-35. That's just 4 games better than our current 37-39. With a strong finish and a weak division..... well, you know.

[Careless]

The imminent goal should be .500 at the All-star break. This week is very difficult; I wouldn't at all be disappointed with a 3-3 home stand, particularly with the way the pitching matchups work out. The seven games in Pittsburgh and Washington provide a very good opportunity to pick up some games on .500.

 

Who are the Brewers scheduled to face when the Cubs are facing Pitt and Wash?

 

Unfortunately, they also face the Pirates and the Nationals. All the Cubs can do is beat up on those two teams though, and if the Brewers do the same at least the Cubs should be quite a bit closer in the WC race at that point.

 

i don't know...i really think the only way that the cubs make the playoffs is by taking the division...they would have to start playing like a team possessed to win the wild card IMO

everyone who has been paying attention to the standings has known that the Cubs only shot at the playoffs was a division win since late April.

The Cubs are 6.5 back in the wild card. With the way the Brewers are playing, unless we sweep them this weekend, we should look at this as our better playoff chance, even with 6 teams to jump

it's never more realistic to assume that 5 other teams will all play worse than you than one will. There's a reason our odds of winning the WC are what, 1/20 our odds of winning the division?

[JenksFan5]

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Cubs. They built the team from the ground up and only have one starting position player that is not home grown (Estrada).

 

If you think Ryan Braun is playing out of his mind as a previous poster stated, you are mistaken. The guy has been able to rake at every level and continues to get even better. Corey Hart is finally just getting a shot to play and is excelling because of it.

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness. The Brewers position by position are a more talented team with stud prospects now becoming stud major league players. The scary part is that they are all 23 and 24 years old and will only get better.

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

[Sammy Sofa]

So speaketh the White Sox fan.

 

Eth.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The Brewers are a more complete team than the Cubs. They built the team from the ground up and only have one starting position player that is not home grown (Estrada).

 

If you think Ryan Braun is playing out of his mind as a previous poster stated, you are mistaken. The guy has been able to rake at every level and continues to get even better. Corey Hart is finally just getting a shot to play and is excelling because of it.

 

I love how everyone thinks that the Brewers will obviously regress yet the Cubs will magically bring it all together. It's madness. The Brewers position by position are a more talented team with stud prospects now becoming stud major league players. The scary part is that they are all 23 and 24 years old and will only get better.

 

Believe what you want, but at least make the discussion a bit more realistic. From an outsiders perspective, it gets a little comical. I give it a couple days and the "This season is over thread" will be back.

 

Enjoy the games this weekend?

[Lockes Eye Scar]

That guy is a Brewers fan, not a White Sox fan. Nice to seem him back after the Brewers finally stopped playing like ****

[CubColtPacer]

The imminent goal should be .500 at the All-star break. This week is very difficult; I wouldn't at all be disappointed with a 3-3 home stand, particularly with the way the pitching matchups work out. The seven games in Pittsburgh and Washington provide a very good opportunity to pick up some games on .500.

 

Who are the Brewers scheduled to face when the Cubs are facing Pitt and Wash?

 

Unfortunately, they also face the Pirates and the Nationals. All the Cubs can do is beat up on those two teams though, and if the Brewers do the same at least the Cubs should be quite a bit closer in the WC race at that point.

 

i don't know...i really think the only way that the cubs make the playoffs is by taking the division...they would have to start playing like a team possessed to win the wild card IMO

everyone who has been paying attention to the standings has known that the Cubs only shot at the playoffs was a division win since late April.

The Cubs are 6.5 back in the wild card. With the way the Brewers are playing, unless we sweep them this weekend, we should look at this as our better playoff chance, even with 6 teams to jump

it's never more realistic to assume that 5 other teams will all play worse than you than one will. There's a reason our odds of winning the WC are what, 1/20 our odds of winning the division?

 

1/20 as likely to win the WC as win the division? Not according to PECOTA, it's not. The Cubs have a 23.2% chance of winning the division, and a 14.0% chance to win the WC. The division is more likely, but the Cubs still have a shot in the WC race-their WC chances certainly did not end in "late April".

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_oddspec.php

[NCCubFan]

In 2003, after 76 games, the CUBS were 41-35. That's just 4 games better than our current 37-39. With a strong finish and a weak division..... well, you know.

They were actually below .500 (51-52) as late as July 26.