Prior to have exploratory arthroscopic shoulder surgery

[Balsa]

You know, I'm not sure which I find more annoying...bufoonish idiots who proclaim that "Mark Prior is a wuss" or condescending stat-geeks who project their own sniveling insecurities onto others.

Wow. Where did that come from?

[jersey cubs fan]

I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs,

 

But the fact is Dusty abused his guys more than any manager abused theirs. Lots of them are bad. But Dusty is the worst.

[treebird]

Kevin Goldstein has a great little editorial on the BP blog.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=342

 

 

Meanwhile, while spending just as much time off the field as Prior, Kerry Wood got a free pass. See, this Wood guy, he’s a man’s man. He’s from Texas and he talks like one would expect the Marlboro man to and he curses and spits and gets arrested for public urination. He’s a tough guy, see? But no, not Prior. Prior was downright erudite, following in his father’s footsteps by attending Vanderbilt before transferring closer to home at Southern California. Prior actually finished his class work after being drafted and got a degree, a rarity among ballplayers. In interviews, he was calm, collected and thoughtful, if not downright boring. He didn’t have spiked hair or a goatee, he almost looked more fitting in a suit than a baseball uniform. He wasn’t what we expected a baseball player to be as a personality, he wasn’t the kind of guy who would punch you in the shoulder when he greeted you, and therefore he was a wimp.

=D> =D> =D> =D> [/i]

You know, I'm not sure which I find more annoying...bufoonish idiots who proclaim that "Mark Prior is a wuss" or condescending stat-geeks who project their own sniveling insecurities onto others.

 

hahahahahahha

 

that makes no sense at all, AND it shows you have no idea who or what you're talking about. kevin goldstein may write for bp, but he's no "stat-geek." he came over from baseball america, and is definitely more a scout guy than a stat guy, although he'd be the first to tell you that such distinctions are largely bogus.

 

nice try, though.

[Chocolate Milk]

I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs,

 

But the fact is Dusty abused his guys more than any manager abused theirs. Lots of them are bad. But Dusty is the worst.

 

I'm looking through the game logs from 2003 and he has so many 100+ ptich outings.

 

He had 2 stretches when he had a long string of starts with over 100 pitches. One stretch was 12 consecutive starts with over a 100 pitches and another was 10 starts. These streaks were separated by 2 starts. Unreal.

[imb]

Kevin Goldstein has a great little editorial on the BP blog.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=342

 

 

Meanwhile, while spending just as much time off the field as Prior, Kerry Wood got a free pass. See, this Wood guy, he’s a man’s man. He’s from Texas and he talks like one would expect the Marlboro man to and he curses and spits and gets arrested for public urination. He’s a tough guy, see? But no, not Prior. Prior was downright erudite, following in his father’s footsteps by attending Vanderbilt before transferring closer to home at Southern California. Prior actually finished his class work after being drafted and got a degree, a rarity among ballplayers. In interviews, he was calm, collected and thoughtful, if not downright boring. He didn’t have spiked hair or a goatee, he almost looked more fitting in a suit than a baseball uniform. He wasn’t what we expected a baseball player to be as a personality, he wasn’t the kind of guy who would punch you in the shoulder when he greeted you, and therefore he was a wimp.

=D> =D> =D> =D> [/i]

You know, I'm not sure which I find more annoying...bufoonish idiots who proclaim that "Mark Prior is a wuss" or condescending stat-geeks who project their own sniveling insecurities onto others.

 

Are you sure the "stat-geeks" are the insecure ones? Ahahahaha.

[cheapseats]

I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs,

 

But the fact is Dusty abused his guys more than any manager abused theirs. Lots of them are bad. But Dusty is the worst.

 

I'm looking through the game logs from 2003 and he has so many 100+ ptich outings.

 

He had 2 stretches when he had a long string of starts with over 100 pitches. One stretch was 12 consecutive starts with over a 100 pitches and another was 10 starts. These streaks were separated by 2 starts. Unreal.

 

It's often argued that 110-115 pitches is a good limit for most veteran pitchers.

 

But Prior was just 22, and he shouldn't have been throwing 120+ pitches.

 

He averaged more pitches per start than Livan Hernandez. That's always a bad sign.

 

At least Dusty didn't leave Prior in for 140+ like he did Wood.

[FergieJ31]

 

In other words, yes, we can blame Dusty.

 

Maybe, but maybe not.

 

I think the real question, which is probably unanswerable, is to what extent was Prior's shoulder injury was inevitable, especially after the collision and the Hawpe ball. (Yes I know it hit near his elbow but Prior might have compensated in his motion due to the elbow.) Would Prior still be hurt now given those two incidents had he been given a normal workload in 2003? And what would "normal" be here -- maybe 5% fewer total innings & pitches? Who knows, but my guess is that he would still be hurt even if the Cubs had a different manager in 2003, all else equal.

 

I'm not about to defend the high early 2003 pitch counts Dusty put Prior through (not to mention Game 2 NLCS), but I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs, especially with the spotty bullpen they had.

 

Well, it's not that I'm after Dusty's blood, but Carroll's analysis clearly rules out the Giles collision as a significant factor. If you have a reason to disagree with his findings, cool, but it appears that the injury was chronic.

 

Could the Hawpe line drive led to cascade injuries? Sure. But I haven't seen anyone make the case that it altered his mechanics.

 

I hate the "all the other managers would have done it" argument. While it may very well be true, it doesn't justify the action.

 

Plus, Dusty's overuse started well before the stretch run, and often didn't make any sense at all. Why should a 22-year-old starter throw 131 pitches in a 7-0 blowout?

 

Pitchers do get injured regularly, so maybe MP was destined to get hurt, but Dusty was probably the worst possible choice to handle a young pitching staff. And it probably didn't help that, under Baker, the training staff was in constant turnover. Heck, Baker brought in a guy who wasn't even licensed to be a trainer.

 

All very valid points, and Baker certainly shares the blame, but I disagree that comparing Baker to other managers (re pitch counts) is invalid if the issue is injury inevitability. I read once that Baker leaves his starters in for an average of just 3.5 extra pitches per game compared to most managers, which I think might surprise some folks here.

 

I'm shocked that Baker hasn't gotten more heat about that trainer fiasco, but I think the Cubs and Hendry were more at fault for not performing due diligence. It was hilarious that Groeschner was certified right after Sandy Krum filed his wrongful termination lawsuit.

[fromthestretch]

I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs,

 

But the fact is Dusty abused his guys more than any manager abused theirs. Lots of them are bad. But Dusty is the worst.

 

I'm looking through the game logs from 2003 and he has so many 100+ ptich outings.

 

He had 2 stretches when he had a long string of starts with over 100 pitches. One stretch was 12 consecutive starts with over a 100 pitches and another was 10 starts. These streaks were separated by 2 starts. Unreal.

 

Out of the 30 starts he made, he was under 100 pitches in only four of them.

 

It wasn't just that he was over 100 pitches...he typically went well beyond that.

 

He had 19 starts where he went over 110 pitches. Out of those 19 games, he was over 120 in nine of them. Out of those nine, he was over 130 in three of them, including his last two starts of the regular season. He averaged just over 113 pitches per game that year. Over his last 10 games of the season, he averaged over 120 pitches per game. None of this includes his three post-season starts.

 

This was all as a 22 year old.

[treebird]

All very valid points, and Baker certainly shares the blame, but I disagree that comparing Baker to other managers (re pitch counts) is invalid if the issue is injury inevitability. I read once that Baker leaves his starters in for an average of just 3.5 extra pitches per game compared to most managers, which I think might surprise some folks here.

 

I'm shocked that Baker hasn't gotten more heat about that trainer fiasco, but I think the Cubs and Hendry were more at fault for not performing due diligence. It was hilarious that Groeschner was certified right after Sandy Krum filed his wrongful termination lawsuit.

 

I've not heard of this statistic before, but it seems like a fatally flawed one. You can't just compare the number of pitches a manager let his starter throw on average without taking into account who those pitchers are. Bad pitchers get pulled before they get deep into the game; they don't pitch well enough to make it to 100 pitches.

[FergieJ31]

All very valid points, and Baker certainly shares the blame, but I disagree that comparing Baker to other managers (re pitch counts) is invalid if the issue is injury inevitability. I read once that Baker leaves his starters in for an average of just 3.5 extra pitches per game compared to most managers, which I think might surprise some folks here.

 

I'm shocked that Baker hasn't gotten more heat about that trainer fiasco, but I think the Cubs and Hendry were more at fault for not performing due diligence. It was hilarious that Groeschner was certified right after Sandy Krum filed his wrongful termination lawsuit.

 

I've not heard of this statistic before, but it seems like a fatally flawed one. You can't just compare the number of pitches a manager let his starter throw on average without taking into account who those pitchers are. Bad pitchers get pulled before they get deep into the game; they don't pitch well enough to make it to 100 pitches.

 

Yep good point. Unconditional averages like this one tend to have the advantage of large sample size but they flatten out crucial details.

 

Reminds me of the old saying "Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, what they conceal is vital."

[cheapseats]

 

In other words, yes, we can blame Dusty.

 

Maybe, but maybe not.

 

I think the real question, which is probably unanswerable, is to what extent was Prior's shoulder injury was inevitable, especially after the collision and the Hawpe ball. (Yes I know it hit near his elbow but Prior might have compensated in his motion due to the elbow.) Would Prior still be hurt now given those two incidents had he been given a normal workload in 2003? And what would "normal" be here -- maybe 5% fewer total innings & pitches? Who knows, but my guess is that he would still be hurt even if the Cubs had a different manager in 2003, all else equal.

 

I'm not about to defend the high early 2003 pitch counts Dusty put Prior through (not to mention Game 2 NLCS), but I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs, especially with the spotty bullpen they had.

 

Well, it's not that I'm after Dusty's blood, but Carroll's analysis clearly rules out the Giles collision as a significant factor. If you have a reason to disagree with his findings, cool, but it appears that the injury was chronic.

 

Could the Hawpe line drive led to cascade injuries? Sure. But I haven't seen anyone make the case that it altered his mechanics.

 

I hate the "all the other managers would have done it" argument. While it may very well be true, it doesn't justify the action.

 

Plus, Dusty's overuse started well before the stretch run, and often didn't make any sense at all. Why should a 22-year-old starter throw 131 pitches in a 7-0 blowout?

 

Pitchers do get injured regularly, so maybe MP was destined to get hurt, but Dusty was probably the worst possible choice to handle a young pitching staff. And it probably didn't help that, under Baker, the training staff was in constant turnover. Heck, Baker brought in a guy who wasn't even licensed to be a trainer.

 

All very valid points, and Baker certainly shares the blame, but I disagree that comparing Baker to other managers (re pitch counts) is invalid if the issue is injury inevitability. I read once that Baker leaves his starters in for an average of just 3.5 extra pitches per game compared to most managers, which I think might surprise some folks here.

 

I'm shocked that Baker hasn't gotten more heat about that trainer fiasco, but I think the Cubs and Hendry were more at fault for not performing due diligence. It was hilarious that Groeschner was certified right after Sandy Krum filed his wrongful termination lawsuit.

 

Yeah, I've seen the THT article. It's pretty poor analysis because it doesn't take the age of comparable pitchers into account.

 

Essentially, Gassko was comparing how Dusty treated Prior to how other managers treated pitchers who were about as good as Prior, guys like Pedro Martinez, Jason Schmidt, Kevin Brown, etc.

 

For the most part, Gassko was comparing Baker's handling of a young pitching staff to the way other managers handled veteran pitchers. It's apples to oranges.

 

Compare how Brandon Webb was used in 2003 to how Prior was used. They're about the same age (Webb is just a little bit older), and they both pitched very well in 2003, but Prior had many more lengthy outings than Webb.

 

Another problem with Gassko's article is the assumption that measuring the average number of pitches is relevant; according to the research on pitcher abuse, it's unusually lengthy outings that may lead to injury. A pitcher who averages 105 pitches with a high standard deviation will be more likely to suffer injury than a pitcher who averages 105 pitches with a low standard deviation.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/dusty-baker-and-pitch-counts/

 

As for Groeschner et al, I'm really starting to think that having a good training staff is a huge competitive advantage, and it's an area in which the Cubs have fallen woefully short.

 

Ozzie Guillen doesn't know what he's doing, but his training staff sure does.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

When did Kevin Goldsten become a stats-geek?

[treebird]

When did Kevin Goldsten become a stats-geek?

 

the minute nate silver injected him with nerd serum

[Balsa]

When did Kevin Goldsten become a stats-geek?

 

the minute nate silver injected him with nerd serum

:-$

 

:lol:

[ToupeeOnFire]

You know, I'm not sure which I find more annoying...bufoonish idiots who proclaim that "Mark Prior is a wuss" or condescending stat-geeks who project their own sniveling insecurities onto others.

Wow. Where did that come from?

Where did what come from? I just don't care for Goldstein's interpretation of the whole Prior/Wood dynamic. He's projecting, which I think, sometimes, particular stat-heads are wont to do. It's this whole us vs. them fallacy -- nouveau, enlightened, 21st century baseball paragons vs. old, crusty, chaw-spittin', flat-earth baseball men and the sychophantic sports reporters who suck on their every word.

 

Sure, you'll find "old school baseball guys" that seem to live down to the stereotype; but in general, I find it to be a false dichotomy, both obnoxious and unhelpful. Yet there is always this temptation to set up this kind of fatted straw man and parade him around in all his backwardness and pig-ignorance as a means of derision and ridicule.

 

I am probably (well, I know) I am giving way too much credit to these Prior-is-a-wuss critics, but since I tend to come from a stat-geek perspective (all the way back to the old Bill James Abstracts and, later, to the old rec.sport.baseball usenet days when Baseball Prospectus was pretty much birthed by a few newsgroup regulars), I find this kind of behavior annoying.

 

Of course now I am projecting and have probably been just as guilty of objectionable snark, but I calls 'em as I sees 'em.

[ToupeeOnFire]

When did Kevin Goldsten become a stats-geek?

Is he not?

[ToupeeOnFire]

I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs,

 

But the fact is Dusty abused his guys more than any manager abused theirs. Lots of them are bad. But Dusty is the worst.

 

I'm looking through the game logs from 2003 and he has so many 100+ ptich outings.

 

He had 2 stretches when he had a long string of starts with over 100 pitches. One stretch was 12 consecutive starts with over a 100 pitches and another was 10 starts. These streaks were separated by 2 starts. Unreal.

 

It's often argued that 110-115 pitches is a good limit for most veteran pitchers.

 

But Prior was just 22, and he shouldn't have been throwing 120+ pitches.

 

He averaged more pitches per start than Livan Hernandez. That's always a bad sign.

 

At least Dusty didn't leave Prior in for 140+ like he did Wood.

Game two of the 2003 NLCS, in which Dusty had Prior out there to throw 116 pitches in a 12-3 game, pretty much sums up the entire Dusty era for me.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

When did Kevin Goldsten become a stats-geek?

Is he not?

 

I don't think so, even if he works for BP.

[hitamprun]

My guess is that people kept telling him there was nothing wrong and he kept hearing fans and media thinking he was a wuss. He may have just been trying to pitch through it.

 

You have got to be kidding me, right? Prior has not been hesitant to take it slow when he has felt pain, and his DL track record shows that. If he was hurt, he did the right thing by not pitching.

 

Now, you are going to tell me he decided to ignore the pain this spring, and then all of sudden discovers it when he gets demoted to AAA? He had plenty of time to regain his arm strength during the offseason, and yet his velocity was way down, which is more proof that the issues were there the entire spring. If you believe this damage magically appeared in late March, after Prior swore he was feeling fine, I have some swamp land I would like to sell you. lastly, Prior is not the type of guy that was going to let the Cubs dictate whether he revealed he had issues, he clearly makes his own choices and always has. He is no dummy, he wanted to get on the opening day roster to get his service time in, and if it was me I may have tried the same thing, but don't tell me he was some victum.

[jersey cubs fan]

but don't tell me he was some victum.

 

He was, and is, a victim of negligent management.

[hitamprun]

Bors and Bernstein still calling Prior a wussy.

 

I sent them an e-mail with a link to the Will Carroll article and they are talking about it now. They kind of brushed it off saying that many pitchers would have the same thing.

 

I would love for someone to get an orthpaedica surgeon on who deals with shoulder problems to discuss this. I am not a doc, but I deal with many being in sports medicine for 15 years, and I think a doc would say that what they found with Prior would indeed be found in a high percentage of pitchers if they were scoped.

 

I am not saying this to say he is soft, because just because one guy can ptich with it, doesn't mean another guy can. You are dealing with a myriad of factors, some of which you can't measure.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I don't know where one quote begins and the next ends.

[imb]

You know, I'm not sure which I find more annoying...bufoonish idiots who proclaim that "Mark Prior is a wuss" or condescending stat-geeks who project their own sniveling insecurities onto others.

Wow. Where did that come from?

 

Where did what come from? I just don't care for Goldstein's interpretation of the whole Prior/Wood dynamic. He's projecting, which I think, sometimes, particular stat-heads are wont to do. It's this whole us vs. them fallacy -- nouveau, enlightened, 21st century baseball paragons vs. old, crusty, chaw-spittin', flat-earth baseball men and the sychophantic sports reporters who suck on their every word.

 

 

Is this a joke? Did you not just jump into a thread railing against "stat geeks" and their "insecurities"? How can you call it an "us vs. them fallacy" and then divide them into groups and "attack" one?

[Mephistopheles]

When did Kevin Goldsten become a stats-geek?

Is he not?

 

I don't think so, even if he works for BP.

Hes a BA graduate, of course he's tools-driven although he's more statistical than most of BA save when Boyd does a guest column.

[soccer10k]

I think virtually 100% of all major league managers, living and dead, would have ridden him hard down the stretch to get the Cubs into the playoffs,

 

But the fact is Dusty abused his guys more than any manager abused theirs. Lots of them are bad. But Dusty is the worst.

 

I'm looking through the game logs from 2003 and he has so many 100+ ptich outings.

 

He had 2 stretches when he had a long string of starts with over 100 pitches. One stretch was 12 consecutive starts with over a 100 pitches and another was 10 starts. These streaks were separated by 2 starts. Unreal.

 

It's often argued that 110-115 pitches is a good limit for most veteran pitchers.

 

But Prior was just 22, and he shouldn't have been throwing 120+ pitches.

 

He averaged more pitches per start than Livan Hernandez. That's always a bad sign.

 

At least Dusty didn't leave Prior in for 140+ like he did Wood.

Game two of the 2003 NLCS, in which Dusty had Prior out there to throw 116 pitches in a 12-3 game, pretty much sums up the entire Dusty era for me.

 

That was the epitome of stupid Dusty - games like that where he had no business leaving any pitcher in. I'm by no means a Dusty defender but I understand why he left Prior in during some of the games late in 2003. I understand that if you have a pitcher who is throwing well, you keep him in. But there has to be a limit as to how long you leave him in.

 

If you have him throw 131 pitches on Sept 1, 2003 (a game I'll come back to) you CAN'T have him throw 129 pitches five days later in his next start. In 2003 Prior averaged 126 pitches per start in September which is just insane.

 

Along with the NLCS game you mentioned, Prior's start against the Cardinals on Sept 1 was another good example. Cubs take a 6-0 lead after 5 innings and 7-0 lead after 6 innings. But Dusty leaves Prior in to throw 131 pitches in 8 innings. I mean, there was no reason at all to keep him out there for the eighth inning. Hell, he shouldn't have been out there in the seventh.