Nate Silver trade suggestions

[Post Count Padder]

Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Aybar hit very well in the minors year in and year out. Ronny really only became a prospect 2 years ago.

 

Edit: Their career minor league lines:

 

Aybar- .311/.356/.454/.810

Cedeno- .265/.316/.376/.692

No offense, but your post showed you did not read what you quoted at all. :D

Am I missing something? :?

[nilodnayr]

Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Aybar hit very well in the minors year in and year out. Ronny really only became a prospect 2 years ago.

 

Edit: Their career minor league lines:

 

Aybar- .311/.356/.454/.810

Cedeno- .265/.316/.376/.692

No offense, but your post showed you did not read what you quoted at all. :D

Am I missing something? :?

 

A) You edited to add career minor league lines, when they were already in the initial post

B)Meph explained Aybar's league and park effects.

 

In response to the question of why people like Aybar, I agree with Meph, people love his tools, especially his defense. As well as the fact that most people don't take into consideration league/park effects.

[Mephistopheles]

Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Aybar hit very well in the minors year in and year out. Ronny really only became a prospect 2 years ago.

 

Yeah, I really like his minor league numbers but I'd be afraid they'd be inflated. Also, it worries me that Aybar has a similar PECOTA rating to Cedeno - who most of us regard as well out of his league and nothing more than a decent backup.

 

Meph's comment about his tools is good, but I didn't expect it out of a stat guy. :D

hey hey now, i normally stick to posting at the draft and minor league boards. thats kinda why i came here - a cubs draft board. i dream for the day that BP gets their head out of their asses and realizes they need (especially for pitchers) to add scouting reports to their databases in PECOTA for comparisons. Comparing guys with similar repetoires is something needed. They say this is wrong and stupid, but I disagree. Maybe Ill have to do it myself (yeah right lol)

[Post Count Padder]

Jones to LAA for Aybar sounds good to me. I wouldn't mind Blanton either.

 

I'd rather keep Cedeno than acquire Aybar, as I don't see a lot of difference between the two. Blanton would be nice, but I don't think our OBP-depleted lineup can afford to lose Murton.

 

If minor league numbers mean anything, Aybar will be the superior offensive player.

 

Cedeno: .265/.316/.376/.692 (1924 AB)

 

Aybar: .311/.356/.454/.810 (2216 AB)

 

Aybar got help from the Texas League, California League and the mountain PCL division. Arkansas is +40% HRs relative to the TL. Salt Lake is about +15% HRs relative to the PCL. Rancho is about league average for the Cali which is a heckuva lot higher than the FSL average. Aybar's entire minor league career was at the highest offensive league in the level, and most of the time in one of the highest parks in that league. His minor league numbers have been heavily aided at every stop. Cedeno's are at the opposite end most of the time.

 

Aybar's PECOTA .263/.306/.382

Ronny's PECOTA .265/.302/.388

 

Pretty damn close.

 

What is it that people like about Aybar then? Not trying to start anything, I'm just curious.

Aybar hit very well in the minors year in and year out. Ronny really only became a prospect 2 years ago.

 

Edit: Their career minor league lines:

 

Aybar- .311/.356/.454/.810

Cedeno- .265/.316/.376/.692

No offense, but your post showed you did not read what you quoted at all. :D

Am I missing something? :?

 

A) You edited to add career minor league lines, when they were already in the initial post

B)Meph explained Aybar's league and park effects.

 

In response to the question of why people like Aybar, I agree with Meph, people love his tools, especially his defense. As well as the fact that most people don't take into consideration league/park effects.

D'oh. I feel dumb

[TheDude]

From today's BP Unfiltered:

2) Jones to PHI for Jon Lieber

 

I pushed for this trade all offseason, before the Lilly and Marquis deals. I whole-heartedly support this idea.

 

Lieber might occasionally get clobbered, but so will the current #5, and having a veteran guy on the team that doesn't walk batters would be nice.

[bannor10]

There is noway that the A's would trade for Jones....In fact the only team that would even want Jones would make the Cubs pay his salary...Nobody wanted Jones this offseason, why would a team trade for him now..He is the '07's version of Todd Walker, his only value is on this dissussion board.

 

The Cubs should just release him...

[kroth1342]

[hey hey now, i normally stick to posting at the draft and minor league boards. thats kinda why i came here - a cubs draft board. i dream for the day that BP gets their head out of their asses and realizes they need (especially for pitchers) to add scouting reports to their databases in PECOTA for comparisons. Comparing guys with similar repetoires is something needed. They say this is wrong and stupid, but I disagree. Maybe Ill have to do it myself (yeah right lol)

 

It seems awfully difficult, if not impossible, to add qualitative information to make what are wholly quantitative predictions. The player comments in the BP annual often take into account scouting reports like you want. Use the PECOTAs and the annual together.

[CubsWin]

There is noway that the A's would trade for Jones....In fact the only team that would even want Jones would make the Cubs pay his salary...Nobody wanted Jones this offseason, why would a team trade for him now..He is the '07's version of Todd Walker, his only value is on this dissussion board.

 

The Cubs should just release him...

Well, that's a fine bit of tough talk, but do you have anything to back it up?

 

You don't know that nobody wanted Jones this offseason. It's just as likely that the Cubs didn't want to trade him until they could find a CFer that they liked.

 

I agree that the A's aren't likely to trade for Jones, but then again, no one is claiming that they would. The trade being discussed in which the Cubs would get Blanton from the A's has Murton going to Oakland not Jones.

 

And finally, if you truly think the Cubs should simply release Jones, then we will have to agree to disagree. Among all qualified major league RFers last season, Jones ranked 7th in OPS. He's not the greatest RFer out there. But he has enough value to avoid being cut without getting anything in return.

[BigbadB]

Just release a guy who is owed money for this year and next? Ain't happening.

 

I'll have faith that Hendry can move him. He moved Todd Hundley. I don't remember who traded for what, but some team was willing to trade for Terrence Long a few years back and he had a somewhat comparable contract to Jacque Jones, and Jones is a far superior player than Long ever thought of being. Nevermind, I looked it up. Long was traded among three small market teams.

 

While I don't see any of the above moves being made, Jones has value in trade. If not right now, a little farther down the line when some teams lose players to injury.

 

How much longer is Juan Rivera out? If he is back anytime soon, I don't see LAA trading for Jones. Between Rivera, Anderson, GMJ and Vlady, they really have no need for another outfielder. If Rivera is going to miss significant time, then I suppose it's a possibility that they would have interest in Jones.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

[illiniguy]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

Says the guy whose favorite team got Scott Rolen for Placido Polanco and Bud Smith. Or Mark McGwire for a bag of balls.

[Magnetic Curses]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

 

he was asking too much. the truth is, despite jones' numbers last season, there aren't a lot of modern GM's in the market for an undisciplined hitter.

[Post Count Padder]

Trade him to the Nats. With the exception of that Reds trade last summer, Bowdon hasn't really shown he's a very competant GM. That, and the Nats have some OF issues IIRC.

[kroth1342]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

 

he was asking too much. the truth is, despite jones' numbers last season, there aren't a lot of modern GM's in the market for an undisciplined hitter.

 

Well, I think a "modern" GM, or any GM for that matter, who finds himself in need of an additional OF, maybe to complement a younger RH bat in a platoon or to solve an injury problem, can appreciate a player who can:

 

*play a capable CF

*.850 OPS against RH

*under reasonable contract terms for this year and the next

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

 

he was asking too much. the truth is, despite jones' numbers last season, there aren't a lot of modern GM's in the market for an undisciplined hitter.

 

Well, I think a "modern" GM, or any GM for that matter, who finds himself in need of an additional OF, maybe to complement a younger RH bat in a platoon or to solve an injury problem, can appreciate a player who can:

 

*play a capable CF

*.850 OPS against RH

*under reasonable contract terms for this year and the next

 

 

Before last year he hadn't put up an .850 OPS against RH since 2002. Hendry worked hard to deal him during the off-season and he couldn't.

Edited April 22, 2007 by CardsFanInChiTown

[CubColtPacer]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

 

he was asking too much. the truth is, despite jones' numbers last season, there aren't a lot of modern GM's in the market for an undisciplined hitter.

 

Well, I think a "modern" GM, or any GM for that matter, who finds himself in need of an additional OF, maybe to complement a younger RH bat in a platoon or to solve an injury problem, can appreciate a player who can:

 

*play a capable CF

*.850 OPS against RH

*under reasonable contract terms for this year and the next

 

 

Before last year he hadn't put up an .850 OPS against RH since 2002. Hendry worked hard to deal him in the off-season and he couldn't.

 

The Cubs couldn't trade Jones until they found the stopgap CF that they wanted to start the season with-they never found that player before Soriano agreed to play CF. That was the failure.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

 

he was asking too much. the truth is, despite jones' numbers last season, there aren't a lot of modern GM's in the market for an undisciplined hitter.

 

Well, I think a "modern" GM, or any GM for that matter, who finds himself in need of an additional OF, maybe to complement a younger RH bat in a platoon or to solve an injury problem, can appreciate a player who can:

 

*play a capable CF

*.850 OPS against RH

*under reasonable contract terms for this year and the next

 

 

Before last year he hadn't put up an .850 OPS against RH since 2002. Hendry worked hard to deal him in the off-season and he couldn't.

 

The Cubs couldn't trade Jones until they found the stopgap CF that they wanted to start the season with-they never found that player before Soriano agreed to play CF. That was the failure.

 

 

Hendry was trying to trade Jones from day one. Rumor had it he wanted out of Chicago and JH tried to accommodate him. Going in to the off-season if was a forgone conclusion he was going to get traded but there was no market for him.

[kroth1342]

Nate Silver way overvalues Jones' trade value. Hendry is good at finding trade partners and he couldn't find any takers.

 

he was asking too much. the truth is, despite jones' numbers last season, there aren't a lot of modern GM's in the market for an undisciplined hitter.

 

Well, I think a "modern" GM, or any GM for that matter, who finds himself in need of an additional OF, maybe to complement a younger RH bat in a platoon or to solve an injury problem, can appreciate a player who can:

 

*play a capable CF

*.850 OPS against RH

*under reasonable contract terms for this year and the next

 

 

Before last year he hadn't put up an .850 OPS against RH since 2002. Hendry worked hard to deal him during the off-season and he couldn't.

 

Ok, my mistake. His 2004-06 three year split against RH is an .826 OPS

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?statsId=6246&type=batting3

[bannor10]

My point is you have to do what is right for your team today and not keep paying for past mistakes....Jones is not a horrible player and could be all right on a team that could score a lot of runs...This Cubs team like all the rest(except maybe the second half of '03) cannot score....Hendry, for his 100 mil dollar ball club has put together a good team of individual players but has not been able to put together a team.....

 

Simply put this team cannot score enough run consistantly to win more than 80 games(I'm being generous)..

 

Why should we have any faith in Hendry...This entire Cubs orginization is run poorly...We draft poor---we develop poor....We don't spend money wisely year after year......We spent 100+mil on a lead off hitter who cannot lead off....Next it will be a number 1 starter that has to pitch on the 2nd day because he cannot take the pressure

 

There are more bizarre plays day after day.........

 

There is noway that the A's would trade for Jones....In fact the only team that would even want Jones would make the Cubs pay his salary...Nobody wanted Jones this offseason, why would a team trade for him now..He is the '07's version of Todd Walker, his only value is on this dissussion board.

 

The Cubs should just release him...

Well, that's a fine bit of tough talk, but do you have anything to back it up?

 

You don't know that nobody wanted Jones this offseason. It's just as likely that the Cubs didn't want to trade him until they could find a CFer that they liked.

 

I agree that the A's aren't likely to trade for Jones, but then again, no one is claiming that they would. The trade being discussed in which the Cubs would get Blanton from the A's has Murton going to Oakland not Jones.

 

And finally, if you truly think the Cubs should simply release Jones, then we will have to agree to disagree. Among all qualified major league RFers last season, Jones ranked 7th in OPS. He's not the greatest RFer out there. But he has enough value to avoid being cut without getting anything in return.

[biittner77]

Hendry was trying to trade Jones from day one. Rumor had it he wanted out of Chicago and JH tried to accommodate him. Going in to the off-season if was a forgone conclusion he was going to get traded but there was no market for him.

 

Have you ever noticed how few trades actually happen in the offseason? Then when trades do happen they seem very one sided? That's because teams in the off season still have the chance to sign FAs to fill their holes. During the season they really don't have that luxury.

 

The fact that Hendry didn't/ couldn't trade Jones in the off season has almost no bearing on whether he could trade him now. The bigger hold up now is whether Pie will hit enough to stick. Until they know that they have to keep Jones.

[frostwyrm]

Hendry tried and failed all offseason to dump Jock for a bag of balls, and that was after a very good season by Jock's standards. Now he's off to a terrible start, but he's supposed to net us something good in trade? Makes no sense to me.

[CubColtPacer]

Hendry tried and failed all offseason to dump Jock for a bag of balls, and that was after a very good season by Jock's standards. Now he's off to a terrible start, but he's supposed to net us something good in trade? Makes no sense to me.

 

It makes no sense (that he tried to dump Jones for nothing and nobody would take him) because that fact isn't necessarily true.

[bannor10]

When JJ was a free agent how many teams showed interest in him...I can only remember KC and the Cubs...

 

Did the Twins offer him a contract?

 

I just don't think JJ is a very tradeable/valueable asset.Unless the Cubs pay his contract I just don't see the Cubbies getting much back.

[Backtobanks]

When JJ was a free agent how many teams showed interest in him...I can only remember KC and the Cubs...

 

Did the Twins offer him a contract?

 

I just don't think JJ is a very tradeable/valueable asset.Unless the Cubs pay his contract I just don't see the Cubbies getting much back.

 

In the offseason, hope springs eternal (just ask Cub fans). During the season, teams have injuries, rookies don't produce, and needs become more apparent, so I do think there is a market for Jones. The question is when to trade him and what do you get in return.

[ltb]

When JJ was a free agent how many teams showed interest in him...I can only remember KC and the Cubs...

 

Did the Twins offer him a contract?

 

I just don't think JJ is a very tradeable/valueable asset.Unless the Cubs pay his contract I just don't see the Cubbies getting much back.

 

i believe the twins only offered arbitration.

 

KC was the only other team offering 3 years. he had a few 1- and 2-year deals on the table from other teams, but obviously chose the 3-year agreement, especially with a team that embraced his hatred for taking walks.