Miller will be skipped

[BigbadB]

Maybe they don't think Miller is the guy, but they think that he's better then Guzman. Who's to say what goes on their minds.

 

I don't think it sent any kind of a message that the Cubs like Miller more than Guzman by giving Miller the 5th spot. Both pitchers are on different career paths even though both have been through numerous injuries the last few years.

 

I think the decision to give Miller the 5th spot was the hope that Miller would get better with more innings. I don't think the Cubs feel like they are in a position to just cut Miller. Miller's ultimatum made the decision more easy for Hendry and Piniella. Not having Miller at all weakens the competition for the 5th starter spot. Prior is nowhere near ready to jump into the rotation, Cotts has been horrid, and Guzman is probably equal to Miller in ability to get hitters out at this time.

 

Miller didn't earn the 5th starters spot. He is the seat warmer to the guy who will earn it. Luckily, they are able to skip the spot occasionally because no one is really making a claim for that spot right now.

 

The hope is that Miller pitches well enough in that spot to net something in return in a trade. At this point, he's not going to bring anything in trade and he'd simply have to be cut.

 

Guzman will eventually grab that spot if Prior doesn't get there first. Each pitch Guzman throws is one pitch farther away from his rehab from injuries. He's hitting 95+ with his fastball and his breaking pitches have plenty of movement. Now more than anything, he needs experience getting major league hitters out, which is can work on from the bullpen.

 

I'm fine with Miller getting a few more starts. I understand management's decision to go with Miller. I think Guzman will be a very good starter eventually, but he isn't there yet.

 

I also think that the best thing for Guzman is to stay as far away from 200 IP's this year as possible. Maybe 200 in 2008 after building up more stamina. But, starting every fifth day in 2007 and logging too many innings on his rebuilt arm is just asking to shorten his career significantly, IMO. I think that also might have factored into management's decision to go with Miller to start the year.

 

Spring Training games do not tell the whole story of whether someone is or isn't ready to get major league hitters out. Miller's first outing showed zero promise in that first inning, but there was a bit of promise in the latter innings. The lack of speed and movement on his fastball is very concerning. But, one outing is not enough evidence for me to kick him to the curb.

[soapy]

I have no problem with giving Miller 2 more starts to show something. I agree with the people who say that if you give a guy a spot in the rotation you shouldn't yank him after one bad game. I advocated a short leash on Miller but one game is too short.

I pretty much agree with that. I just found it alarming that they are going to skip him now. Either put him out there as your 5th starter and see what he can do, or put someone else in there. Skipping him is just delaying the inevitable.

 

Z is the one who is in danger of abuse-if you're going to start him every 5th day anyway, you might as well skip the 5th starter and let everyone else pitch on the 5th day as well. Until a 5th starter option that will be better than the top 4 pitchers emerges, the less starts that spot gets and the more the team will win.

But how is someone supposed to "emerge" as the fifth starter if Miller is getting skipped and Guzman is pitching 3 innings (or less) a week? They could be trying to buy time for Prior, but I doubt that.

[CUBZ99]

I have no problem with giving Miller 2 more starts to show something. I agree with the people who say that if you give a guy a spot in the rotation you shouldn't yank him after one bad game. I advocated a short leash on Miller but one game is too short.

I pretty much agree with that. I just found it alarming that they are going to skip him now. Either put him out there as your 5th starter and see what he can do, or put someone else in there. Skipping him is just delaying the inevitable.

 

I dont' have a problem with letting the top 4 pitchers in the rotation pitch whenever available. The schedule allows the Cubs to skip the worst pitcher on the staff without adding an undue burden on the rest of the staff. That is smart baseball.

[C.C.]

I have no problem with giving Miller 2 more starts to show something. I agree with the people who say that if you give a guy a spot in the rotation you shouldn't yank him after one bad game. I advocated a short leash on Miller but one game is too short.

I pretty much agree with that. I just found it alarming that they are going to skip him now. Either put him out there as your 5th starter and see what he can do, or put someone else in there. Skipping him is just delaying the inevitable.

 

Z is the one who is in danger of abuse-if you're going to start him every 5th day anyway, you might as well skip the 5th starter and let everyone else pitch on the 5th day as well. Until a 5th starter option that will be better than the top 4 pitchers emerges, the less starts that spot gets and the more the team will win.

But how is someone supposed to "emerge" as the fifth starter if Miller is getting skipped and Guzman is pitching 3 innings (or less) a week? They could be trying to buy time for Prior, but I doubt that.

 

We are only 7 games into the season. Someone will emerge.

[BigbadB]

But how is someone supposed to "emerge" as the fifth starter if Miller is getting skipped and Guzman is pitching 3 innings (or less) a week? They could be trying to buy time for Prior, but I doubt that.

 

When you skip the 5th starter, he becomes a long man in the pen. So, it's not like Miller won't get some work in the next few games between his starts. In other words, both will have opportunities to be evaluated as they come out of the pen.

[Derwood]

i am drowning in hyperbole

 

the cubs aren't "skipping miller at every opportunity". This is one skipped start. ONE. It happens, and nothing should be read into it.

 

and this thread has turned into pages and pages of inane argument. the choices right now are an injury plagued pitcher who is not playing to his potential vs. an injury plagued pitcher who is not playing to his potential

[BDWeav71]

But how is someone supposed to "emerge" as the fifth starter if Miller is getting skipped and Guzman is pitching 3 innings (or less) a week? They could be trying to buy time for Prior, but I doubt that.

 

When you skip the 5th starter, he becomes a long man in the pen. So, it's not like Miller won't get some work in the next few games between his starts. In other words, both will have opportunities to be evaluated as they come out of the pen.

 

Right now, neither of them have looked very good. Since the beginning I have had the mindset that Miller would look better in long relief where batters only see him once. Ill trust the Cubs decision, but I hope if Miller struggles after 2-3 more starts they will not continue to give him a chance to start games. We have a lot of arms that are capable of starting, and if Miller struggles they should get the opportunity to prove they can get the job done.

[Laura]

I feel like we're back to the days of Shawn Estes versus Juan Cruz and Glendon Rusch versus Rich Hill.

 

Joy.

 

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I don't think this would be handled by Lou the same way Dusty handled the other two situations (if the situations turn out to be similar; ie, Miller doen't improve). One of the many maddening things about Dusty is that once he had a plan, he stuck with that plan come hell or high water ... even when it was blatantly obvious to everyone on the planet that the plan wasn't working.

 

Lou declared Miller the #5 starter, but he also said that the Cubs wouldn't be skipping #5 in April (though they would be shifting the rotation around Z pitching every 5th day). It took one disaster start for that to change.

 

We also have the candid conversation that Santo seems to have accidentally recorded before a ST game radio pre-show. IIRC, that conversation occurred before Miller was named the 5th starter. In it, Lou says, "Rather than do something like that ... I'd rather throw a young kid into that 5th spot. Some kid with a good arm who can throw strikes. I really would. Some kid who can get better as the season goes by."

 

Like BBB, I think that Miller's demands to start / the roster situation, Prior not being ready to start, and Guzman not being quite able to finish off hitters during the mock trial in spring training resulted in Miller getting the 5 slot. Lou isn't going to bail on him after one bad start ... but I don't think Lou is going to stick with Miller if Miller shows no signs of improvement.

 

This 5th starter fun sure upped the ante on whether Marquis is able to pitch at a decent level this season, eh?

[RynoRules]

Here's the reason not to cut Miller from the rotation just yet:

 

The team has only played 7 games. You aren't out of any race until at least Memorial Day, IMO. If I were Lou I'd give him two or three more starts and see what happens. If he is still putrid, yank him back to the pen as the 11th or 12th man or send him down to work out his issues, and insert Guzman (the guy I wanted to see in the 5th slot to begin with) into the rotation. My gut tells me this will happen sooner rather than later.

 

And before you say it again, I know that this team doesn't have a large margin of error - I get it. But the division stinks and we have greater depth in our pitching staff than we have had in recent years. Give him a chance - not an endless one, but give it to him.

 

The problem with giving him a couple more starts is that people will be focused on the outcome and not the process. If he gets lucky with BABIP and wins a game despite having lousy stuff again, he'll get more rope with which to hang himself, and that will cost the team more in the long run.

 

I get what you are saying, but I don't think you are giving Lou enough credit, nor are you allowing for sample size bearing out what is actually happening. I think we have to allow him a couple of starts to figure out if this is a trend or just aberations. Look at Contreras' first start next to the one he made last night. I am not saying Miller is Contreras, just want to give him a chance to show me he has something more than waht he showed a couple of days ago.

[jersey cubs fan]

I feel like we're back to the days of Shawn Estes versus Juan Cruz and Glendon Rusch versus Rich Hill.

 

Joy.

 

Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I don't think this would be handled by Lou the same way Dusty handled the other two situations (if the situations turn out to be similar; ie, Miller doen't improve). One of the many maddening things about Dusty is that once he had a plan, he stuck with that plan come hell or high water ... even when it was blatantly obvious to everyone on the planet that the plan wasn't working.

 

Lou declared Miller the #5 starter, but he also said that the Cubs wouldn't be skipping #5 in April (though they would be shifting the rotation around Z pitching every 5th day). It took one disaster start for that to change.

 

On the other hand, Lou certainly didn't make it seem like Murton would be relegated to the back of the bus. But Murton "is on pace" for just 347 PA this season. I'm not about to assume he'll make the right moves as it pertains to young vs old and playing time. I'm thinking he's still giving benefit of the doubt privileges based far to heavily on tenure.

[Laura]

Did Lou say much about Murton? I recall him saying that Floyd would be held back at the beginning of the season because he still isn't 100%.

[jersey cubs fan]

Did Lou say much about Murton? I recall him saying that Floyd would be held back at the beginning of the season because he still isn't 100%.

 

All I know is it started sounding like Lou had a crush on him toward the end.

[Laura]

All the more incentive for Lou to keep Murton beside him on the bench! :wink:

[Derwood]

floyd is hitting the ball very hard right now. I have no issue with him starting right now

[jersey cubs fan]

floyd is hitting the ball very hard right now. I have no issue with him starting right now

 

He's got a 724 OPS, including a .308 OBP. He's not doing anything.

[Soul]

Let's have a look at this pitching line:

 

160.7 IP

7-13 W/L record

4.82 ERA

1.512 WHIP

82 ERA+

 

Age....25 1st full year of starting.

 

Should his team have relegated this pitcher to the bullpen in favor of an aging vet with no velocity who is coming off arm surgery? In short, should this have been enough to determine that this pitcher wasn't going to be a good starter?

 

BTW, Guzman hasn't even had the benefit of a full season of starting, so even this is skewed against Angel.

 

 

 

Hope you didn't say yes, this pitcher is Randy Johnson.

[RynoRules]

floyd is hitting the ball very hard right now. I have no issue with him starting right now

 

He's got a 724 OPS, including a .308 OBP. He's not doing anything.

 

I don't think he said he is setting the world afire; he just said he's hitting the ball hard. he hit a couple yesterday that just went right at the Stros.

[jersey cubs fan]

floyd is hitting the ball very hard right now. I have no issue with him starting right now

 

He's got a 724 OPS, including a .308 OBP. He's not doing anything.

 

I don't think he said he is setting the world afire; he just said he's hitting the ball hard. he hit a couple yesterday that just went right at the Stros.

 

I understand the sentiment, I just think it's a lousy defense for playing a hobbled veteran coming off a terrible season over a young up and comer coming off a solid season, especially when he hasn't done anything this year. Aramis Ramirez can get the "hard outs" excuse, because you can expect him to produce great numbers this year. Floyd is nowhere near a guarantee. He should only get preference if he's truly racking up the numbers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thus far, Floyd's BABIP and LD% are right where they've been the last several years.

[papabear58]

Let's have a look at this pitching line:

 

160.7 IP

7-13 W/L record

4.82 ERA

1.512 WHIP

82 ERA+

 

Age....25 1st full year of starting.

 

Should his team have relegated this pitcher to the bullpen in favor of an aging vet with no velocity who is coming off arm surgery? In short, should this have been enough to determine that this pitcher wasn't going to be a good starter?

 

BTW, Guzman hasn't even had the benefit of a full season of starting, so even this is skewed against Angel.

 

 

 

Hope you didn't say yes, this pitcher is Randy Johnson.

 

Should they have simply handed this pitcher the fifth starter spot after a spotty spring and didn't show then that he had improved considerably from the above stats?

 

--Edited We can assume that Johnson impressed the next spring to make the squad. To only give those stats is to make only half of the compairason.

[USSoccer]

Let's have a look at this pitching line:

 

160.7 IP

7-13 W/L record

4.82 ERA

1.512 WHIP

82 ERA+

 

Age....25 1st full year of starting.

 

Should his team have relegated this pitcher to the bullpen in favor of an aging vet with no velocity who is coming off arm surgery? In short, should this have been enough to determine that this pitcher wasn't going to be a good starter?

 

BTW, Guzman hasn't even had the benefit of a full season of starting, so even this is skewed against Angel.

 

 

 

Hope you didn't say yes, this pitcher is Randy Johnson.

 

Should they have simply handed this pitcher the fifth starter spot after a spotty spring and didn't show then that he had improved considerably from the above stats?

 

--Edited We can assume that Johnson impressed the next spring to make the squad. To only give those stats is to make only half of the compairason.

 

Miller gave up more hits, walks, home runs, had a higher WHIP, gave up an equal number of runs, and only one fewer earned run in 1.2 more innings.

[papabear58]

Let's have a look at this pitching line:

 

160.7 IP

7-13 W/L record

4.82 ERA

1.512 WHIP

82 ERA+

 

Age....25 1st full year of starting.

 

Should his team have relegated this pitcher to the bullpen in favor of an aging vet with no velocity who is coming off arm surgery? In short, should this have been enough to determine that this pitcher wasn't going to be a good starter?

 

BTW, Guzman hasn't even had the benefit of a full season of starting, so even this is skewed against Angel.

 

 

 

Hope you didn't say yes, this pitcher is Randy Johnson.

 

Should they have simply handed this pitcher the fifth starter spot after a spotty spring and didn't show then that he had improved considerably from the above stats?

 

--Edited We can assume that Johnson impressed the next spring to make the squad. To only give those stats is to make only half of the compairason.

 

Miller gave up more hits, walks, home runs, had a higher WHIP, gave up an equal number of runs, and only one fewer earned run in 1.2 more innings.

 

Or, the boiled down version goes like he gave up one fewer runs while pitching 1.2 more innings. That is a better end result.

 

Tell me something, why are you so interested in seeing Guzman in the starting rotation? What have you seens (aside from minor league stats that have not yet materialized into the major leagues) that shows you that he's going to be successful. It didn't happen last season and it didn't happen this spring. So everytime he's faced major league hitters he's struggled. What is it that you've seen that tells you that now it will suddenly be different?

[Mephistopheles]

because hes got the potential to be dominant. miller doesn't. given his track record it's very likely the light will come on.

[BigbadB]

Tell me something, why are you so interested in seeing Guzman in the starting rotation? What have you seens (aside from minor league stats that have not yet materialized into the major leagues) that shows you that he's going to be successful. It didn't happen last season and it didn't happen this spring. So everytime he's faced major league hitters he's struggled. What is it that you've seen that tells you that now it will suddenly be different?

 

This is the same argument that people were making about Rich Hill last year. Who is questioning whether Rich Hill should be in the rotation now? No one.

 

Guzman has a 95+ fastball with plenty of movement, excellent breaking stuff and good command. All he needs is more experience pitching to major league hitters, just like Hill.

[papabear58]

because hes got the potential to be dominant. miller doesn't. given his track record it's very likely the light will come on.

 

Is that opinion or is there something tangible that you can point to?