Maybe time to take a run at Ichiro?

[Hosak8]

 

I'd say Murton+J.Jones+Marshall+Gallagher for starters-

 

 

I dont think I can say no fast enough.

really, wow, i understand the love of Murton's potential but you get a chance at a player of Ichiro's caliber you have to take it- i think you might be overvalueing Murtons Potential as well as Marshall and Gallagher- they are young unproven commodities- I think i couldnt say yes fast enough( if Ichiro wanted to sign an extension)

 

I think you will find that potential is almost always valued above production when it comes to our prospects.

 

Murton: .297/.365/.444, 103 OPS+, 25 years old, making 6 figures and under team control until the 2012 season

 

Ichiro: .322/.370/.416, 109 OPS+, 33 years old, making 8 figures and a year away from Free Agency

 

And we're adding Jones, Gallagher, and Marshall?

 

Murton= platoon parter with Cliff Floyd.

 

Ichiro= actual protection in the lineup for Soriano.

 

Murton= average at best defense.

 

Ichiro= actuall improves our outfield defense, which might very well be atrocious this year.

 

Yeah, I see your point.

 

You shouldnt be so rude when you make such a bad argument.

 

And, perhaps you shouldn't when you offer nothing that concerns the topic?

[Hosak8]

 

 

Murton= platoon parter with Cliff Floyd.

 

Ichiro= actual protection in the lineup for Soriano.

 

Murton= average at best defense.

 

Ichiro= actually improves our outfield defense, which might very well be atrocious this year.

 

Yeah, I see your point.

 

First of all, how does the fact that our organization will most likely (wrongly) use Murton as a platoon player have anything to do with this argument? Furthermore, how does Ichiro provide "actual protection" while Murton obviously (by your logic) does not? They get on base at nearly the exact same rate!

 

And yes, Ichiro has a better defensive game than murton, but is that worth giving up Jones, Gallager, and Marshall for?

 

Roast...

 

It has ALOT to do with it. Wrongly or not, Murton will be used in a platoon, causing his averages to not be as productive as Ichiro's.

 

Also, despite what the stats tell you, perception is a very strong force in sports, and the perception (again, rightly or wrongly) is that Ichiro is a dangerous hitter. Ask 100 MLB pitchers who they'd rather face, and how many do you think would really say Ichiro? My guess is less than 10.

 

Now, this argument harkens back to the Cubs.com days of Nowacrats vs. Dynastics. I realize that, just as I realize that those who would've been classified as "Dynastics" mostly migrated here. However, I think Ichiro gives us a better chance at winning in 2007 than Murton will anytime over the next couple of seasons. And, I'd really like to win now.

[NewUserName]

I would trade Jones and maybe Marshall. I would offer Marmol or Mateo first though. I think if Ichiro could be added for basically Jones it is a good move. I wouldnt even consider trading Murton for Ichiro straight up.

[Outshined_One]

Also, despite what the stats tell you, perception is a very strong force in sports, and the perception (again, rightly or wrongly) is that Ichiro is a dangerous hitter. Ask 100 MLB pitchers who they'd rather face, and how many do you think would really say Ichiro? My guess is less than 10.

 

I understand your win now attitude, but this statement is puzzling to me.

 

While a number of people discard statistics beyond your typical AVG, RBI, R, and so on, I think a number of traditional people would have a problem with something like perception. Following what you sad, if you asked these same pitchers to name the Top 5 leadoff hitters in baseball right now, I'm willing to bet the vast majority would have Juan Pierre among those names. However, those of us who watched Pierre day in, day out all of last season would almost certainly exclude Pierre from that list.

 

Perception does not get you wins. Perhaps those 90 some-odd pitchers would rather face Ichiro, but I'm willing to bet Murton would get better results against those pitchers than Ichiro would next season.

 

Also, future and salary issues aside, this would not be a straight up trade of Murton for Ichiro. The original poster advocated Murton+J.Jones+Marshall+Gallagher as an opening package. Assuming the Mariners took the offer, you'd have the following OF (assuming Pie is in AAA to start the season):

 

Ward/Floyd - Soriano - Ichiro

 

That OF would be much less productive than Murton - Soriano - Jones (with Floyd and Ward on the bench). Given Floyd's fragile body, there's no guarantee that he would be able to play LF most days, leaving Ward as the everyday LF. Maybe Pie can come up and make the OF Soriano - Pie - Ichiro, but it's difficult to say whether Pie would be an improvement over Floyd/Ward, given that he has yet to play in the majors.

 

Secondly, you'd be giving up Marshall and Gallagher. While both have their share of question marks, depth might well be a critical issue this season. After Prior's panic-inducing performance yesterday, a nagging doubt about his ability to start every fifth day is coming to the forefront. If the fifth starter spot becomes a legitimate issue, the Cubs might face some serious problems if they do not have any workable options. Lord help us if someone else goes down with an injury in that situation.

 

In essence, by trading for Ichiro with that package, you run a substantial risk of reducing your outfield's total offensive output and reduce potentially critical pitching depth in the process. That's not a risk this team can afford to take.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It has ALOT to do with it. Wrongly or not, Murton will be used in a platoon, causing his averages to not be as productive as Ichiro's.

 

I don't think this as anywhere near as certain as you are claiming it to be.

[Sammy Sofa]

It has ALOT to do with it. Wrongly or not, Murton will be used in a platoon, causing his averages to not be as productive as Ichiro's.

 

I don't think this as anywhere near as certain as you are claiming it to be.

 

Agreed. The only way I see Murton ending up in a true platoon is if Floyd stays healthy, and the odds of that aren't too great.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm not opposed to trading for Ichiro, but offering Murton, Jones, Gallagher and Marshall is too much to pay for a player that is in the last year of his contract unless that player can produce an OPS of 850 or greater. Ichiro hasn't done that in the previous two seasons.

 

Ichiro has value, and I'd be willing to offer Jones and Gallagher or some similar package along with another mid-level prospect.

 

Make a deal of Jones, Gallagher, and Novoa or Jones, Marshall, and Cotts or Ohman and see what happens.

 

While I'm not opposed to trading Murton, and Ichiro is defensively is better than Murton, Murton is much more cost efficient and would be under team control for quite a few more years.

 

Is Ichiro an improvement over Murton? Likely. Is he enough of an improvement to include Gallagher, Marshall, and Jones especially considering we'd have to re-sign Ichiro to a lucrative extension? Not even close.

[Hosak8]

It has ALOT to do with it. Wrongly or not, Murton will be used in a platoon, causing his averages to not be as productive as Ichiro's.

 

I don't think this as anywhere near as certain as you are claiming it to be.

 

The implication here is that even if both guys have the same averages (and we all know that Murt will have a higher SLG%, no doubt) that Ichiros 200+ more at bats will equate to more base runners, etc.

[Hosak8]

Also, despite what the stats tell you, perception is a very strong force in sports, and the perception (again, rightly or wrongly) is that Ichiro is a dangerous hitter. Ask 100 MLB pitchers who they'd rather face, and how many do you think would really say Ichiro? My guess is less than 10.

 

I understand your win now attitude, but this statement is puzzling to me.

 

While a number of people discard statistics beyond your typical AVG, RBI, R, and so on, I think a number of traditional people would have a problem with something like perception. Following what you sad, if you asked these same pitchers to name the Top 5 leadoff hitters in baseball right now, I'm willing to bet the vast majority would have Juan Pierre among those names. However, those of us who watched Pierre day in, day out all of last season would almost certainly exclude Pierre from that list.

 

Perception does not get you wins. Perhaps those 90 some-odd pitchers would rather face Ichiro, but I'm willing to bet Murton would get better results against those pitchers than Ichiro would next season.

 

Also, future and salary issues aside, this would not be a straight up trade of Murton for Ichiro. The original poster advocated Murton+J.Jones+Marshall+Gallagher as an opening package. Assuming the Mariners took the offer, you'd have the following OF (assuming Pie is in AAA to start the season):

 

Ward/Floyd - Soriano - Ichiro

 

That OF would be much less productive than Murton - Soriano - Jones (with Floyd and Ward on the bench). Given Floyd's fragile body, there's no guarantee that he would be able to play LF most days, leaving Ward as the everyday LF. Maybe Pie can come up and make the OF Soriano - Pie - Ichiro, but it's difficult to say whether Pie would be an improvement over Floyd/Ward, given that he has yet to play in the majors.

 

Secondly, you'd be giving up Marshall and Gallagher. While both have their share of question marks, depth might well be a critical issue this season. After Prior's panic-inducing performance yesterday, a nagging doubt about his ability to start every fifth day is coming to the forefront. If the fifth starter spot becomes a legitimate issue, the Cubs might face some serious problems if they do not have any workable options. Lord help us if someone else goes down with an injury in that situation.

 

In essence, by trading for Ichiro with that package, you run a substantial risk of reducing your outfield's total offensive output and reduce potentially critical pitching depth in the process. That's not a risk this team can afford to take.

 

That outfield would be much better, defensively.

 

Ichiro's "reputation" is a huge intangible. It means that he gets the pitchers best. It means that pitchers are more likely to make mistakes with him at the plate. His reputation means pitchers are more careful with Soriano and more spent while facing ARam or DLee.

 

I just don't see it with Murton. Perhaps in 2 seasons, but not even close in 2007.

[Sammy Sofa]

If the main reason for trading is an intangible, that's likely not going to work out to be a very good trade.

[Hosak8]

If the main reason for trading is an intangible, that's likely not going to work out to be a very good trade.

 

The intangible is not the reason for the trade, it's the thing that distinguishes between two players who some seem to think are comparable.

 

If I can have a 7 footer who averages 20 and 10 with no effort, or a 6'11" guy who posts 20 and 10 and is the hardest worker on the team, give me him.

 

If I can have a guy post a .750 OPS whom pitchers fear, I take him over a .750 guy who pitchers don't fear. Especially if the first guy is the much better defender, as Ichiro is.

 

That initial package may have been an exorbitant amount to pay, but I'd take Ichiro over Murton all day. Maybe not in 2010, but in 2007.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If I can have a guy post a .750 OPS whom pitchers fear, I take him over a .750 guy who pitchers don't fear.

 

Why? If the end result is similar production, why does it matter how intimidating they are at the plate?

[Roast]

If I can have a guy post a .750 OPS whom pitchers fear, I take him over a .750 guy who pitchers don't fear. Especially if the first guy is the much better defender, as Ichiro is.

 

That initial package may have been an exorbitant amount to pay, but I'd take Ichiro over Murton all day. Maybe not in 2010, but in 2007.

 

And there in lies the problem. Ichiro isn't young anymore and his numbers have already started to trail off. He hasn't broken an .800 OPS in 2 years. I understand the "win now" attitude, but your "pitchers fearing him" argument is bogus.

 

I dont care if they fear him or not, it hasn't helped him get any more walks (i.e. pitchers being afraid of him and pitching around him). And if it has...congratulations, he still barely gets on base more than Murton. All this "fear" he strikes into pitchers hasn't helped him produce any better than Murton, so why does it even matter?

 

If your thesis is that people are going to give Soriano better pitches because he is batting in front of Ichiro...I seriously doubt that is the case.

 

Furthermore, aside from the "fear" argument. Given two players, one who gets on base at a .750 clip and is on the upswing (pre-prime) of his career, is dirt cheap, and has the potential for some power; and one who will get on at a .750 clip and is past the prime of his career, has little to no power, and is really expensive who would you chose?

[KaiserCesar]

So really what you are saying is that Ichiro was helped by the fear to get his pretty good numbers. If that is the case, the fear can only go away and further hurt Ichiro's numbers that already have trouble standing up to Murton's.

 

P.S. I don't believe in the fear idea for Ichiro at least

[Bull]

So really what you are saying is that Ichiro was helped by the fear to get his pretty good numbers. If that is the case, the fear can only go away and further hurt Ichiro's numbers that already have trouble standing up to Murton's.

 

P.S. I don't believe in the fear idea for Ichiro at least

 

I'm sceered of him. Did you see those pictures of him in the ST pictures thread? Yikes

[Outshined_One]

Ichiro's "reputation" is a huge intangible. It means that he gets the pitchers best. It means that pitchers are more likely to make mistakes with him at the plate. His reputation means pitchers are more careful with Soriano and more spent while facing ARam or DLee.

 

What precisely is it about Ichiro that you think causes pitchers to become careful with him and more likely to make mistakes than with Murton?

 

Assuming that Ichiro and Murton both see the same mistake pitch, which hitter do you think has a better chance of making that pitcher pay for his mistake? While Ichiro has the upper hand in batting average, Murton is a much greater power threat than Ichiro. While Ichiro is not quite Juan Pierre-like in that pitchers could simply throw him fastballs down the middle without worrying about the consequences, Ichiro still is primarily a contact hitter without much power. While Murton isn't a hulking monstrosity, he still has a good chance to put up 20-25 HRs in a season.

 

Look, I'd understand your argument if we were talking about someone like Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, or Barry Bonds. Some hitters in the game get special treatment from pitchers because of their good eyes and ability to hit the holy crap out of a pitch. I don't see Ichiro in nearly the same category as those guys.

 

That particular package would seriously hurt the Cubs offensively (and pitching-wise). The defensive upgrade would not nearly be enough to offset the difference in runs.

[imb]

No. To the original trade idea and to Ichiro in general. Unless Ichiro hits .330, Murton is probably a better bet to put up a higher OBP% and he will put up a higher SLG, all while doing it for much cheaper.

 

Come to think of it, why are we even discussing this?

[Rob]

No. To the original trade idea and to Ichiro in general. Unless Ichiro hits .330, Murton is probably a better bet to put up a higher OBP% and he will put up a higher SLG, all while doing it for much cheaper.

 

Come to think of it, why are we even discussing this?

 

I don't know about you, but when I saw the topic title my blood started boiling... then I read the actual proposal.

 

I don't understand why we'd want to give up Jones and Murton for him, let alone the pitchers. I don't think a one of us on this board doubts that if we gave a straight platoon in RF to Jones and Murton, they'd outproduce Ichiro by quite a bit. That's not even to mention the cost, or the availability of a prime bat on the bench.

 

If we're looking to upgrade this team, all we have to do is take at bats against lefties away from Jacque Jones and throw Izturis in a volcano. Why we'd trade for an expensive outfielder that's a hamstring strain away from being Tony Womack is beyond me.

[RichHillIsABeast]

I'd rather have Jones instead of Ichiro. One can slug and the other can get on base. It'd just be a tradeoff in skills and isn't worth the difference in salaries.

 

Jones plays RF very well and his throwing has supposedly gotten a lot better this year (unannounced shoulder injury last season).

 

I can't see why the Cubs would want to swap Jones for Ichiro in RF just considering the money aspect. And they'd have to pay in prospects to get Ichiro.

 

No thanks.

[Backtobanks]

No way to the original deal mentioned, but something like Jones and Marshall for Ichiro would be worth thinking about. Murton is going to be an excellent player and including him in a deal would have to bring back someone like Cabrera.

[CuseCubFan69]

No way to the original deal mentioned, but something like Jones and Marshall for Ichiro would be worth thinking about. Murton is going to be an excellent player and including him in a deal would have to bring back someone like Cabrera.

 

I'd do that and move Ichiro to Center.

[Wheelimus]

No thanks. The money and years that would be needed to resign him would scare me away anyway. Never mind the talent.

 

He probably has a few more good years before that average dips below .300, but it may be getting here faster than we think. Last year versus RHP.

 

Murton - .295 .356 .426 .782

Ichiro - .312 .361 .405 .766

 

Again, no thanks. It would be a redundant move because the upgrade in defense will not be worth the cost in talent. Especially when you consider that Matt is fairly young and can still improve his fielding.

[CuseCubFan69]

No thanks. The money and years that would be needed to resign him would scare me away anyway. Never mind the talent.

 

He probably has a few more good years before that average dips below .300, but it may be getting here faster than we think. Last year versus RHP.

 

Murton - .295 .356 .426 .782

Ichiro - .312 .361 .405 .766

 

Again, no thanks. It would be a redundant move because the upgrade in defense will not be worth the cost in talent. Especially when you consider that Matt is fairly young and can still improve his fielding.

 

I like Murtons approach to hitting and I think he will be an important piece in this team winning. He'll never approach Ichiro defensively but I think he will offensively and maybe pass him production wise if he's allowed to play everyday.

[Sammy Sofa]

Murton is clearly on the rise, cheap and young. Ichiro is clearly on the slide, expensive and getting old. That trade would be baffling to me.

 

Especially since most MLB pitchers aren't trembling little girls on the mound.

[Wheelimus]

It would be interesting to see Ichiro in the NL, though, and see if his numbers got a bump from the league change.

 

However, still don't want that to be in a Cubs uniform, barring an incredible deal or catastrophic injury.