Jae-Kuk Ryu traded to D-rays

[nilodnayr]

Andrew (Andy) Lopez was drafted by the Rays in the 8th round of the 2005 draft. He's 20 years old and hasn't played above NY Penn league in Princeton.

 

He has a minor league line of 282 .374 .455 829.

In 2005, he hit 325 .403 .542 945, in 32 games but then in 2006 only hit 256 .356 .402 758 while repeating the same level. It's hard to know what kind of player he'll be. I like the OBP from him, but it's frighening that his numbers declined while repeating a level.

 

He's a right-handed hitter.

 

Hmmmm.....way fewer ABs in '06. Was he possibly nursing an injury?

 

I don't think you are looking at his line correctly. He had 120 ABs in 05 and 199 in 06.

 

And 199 ABs at short-season A-ball is about 2/3 of the season if not more.

 

He played in 56 out of Princeton's 64 games...second highest total on the team.

[d_money]

Ryu, ewe, you.

[Rob]

what an awful trade

 

thanks jim, jason marquis is certainly way better.

 

Actually, he probably is.

 

PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

[nilodnayr]

what an awful trade

 

thanks jim, jason marquis is certainly way better.

 

Actually, he probably is.

 

PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

 

CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close.

[Rob]

what an awful trade

 

thanks jim, jason marquis is certainly way better.

 

Actually, he probably is.

 

PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

 

CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close.

 

I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself).

[jacey]

This is a good trade for the Cubs. Ryu was blocked by others. Keep in mind that Wilken played an important role in drafting these two kids while he was at TB. He must have some insight on what potential they have. Ryu is a ML middle reliever at best and why not take a roll of the dice on two kids Wilken is high on? I trust Wilken's assessment

[CuseCubFan69]

This is a good trade for the Cubs. Ryu was blocked by others. Keep in mind that Wilken played an important role in drafting these two kids while he was at TB. He must have some insight on what potential they have. Ryu is a ML middle reliever at best and why not take a roll of the dice on two kids Wilken is high on? I trust Wilken's assessment

 

I'm curious on how high Wilken really is on these two guys.

[Danny82]

what an awful trade

 

thanks jim, jason marquis is certainly way better.

 

Actually, he probably is.

 

PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

 

CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close.

 

I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself).

I will go out on a limb and say that all three will be wrong and Marquis will be about a run better than Ryu.

[CubColtPacer]

This is a good trade for the Cubs. Ryu was blocked by others. Keep in mind that Wilken played an important role in drafting these two kids while he was at TB. He must have some insight on what potential they have. Ryu is a ML middle reliever at best and why not take a roll of the dice on two kids Wilken is high on? I trust Wilken's assessment

 

That is an amazing point and something I completely forgot about-that definitely makes me happier, as I have a good deal of trust in Wilken to generally pick people who have a decent chance of developing, and if he wants these two there must at least be a chance that they'll surprise and be really good, even if it's not a great one.

[Soul]

Andrew (Andy) Lopez was drafted by the Rays in the 8th round of the 2005 draft. He's 20 years old and hasn't played above NY Penn league in Princeton.

 

He has a minor league line of 282 .374 .455 829.

In 2005, he hit 325 .403 .542 945, in 32 games but then in 2006 only hit 256 .356 .402 758 while repeating the same level. It's hard to know what kind of player he'll be. I like the OBP from him, but it's frighening that his numbers declined while repeating a level.

 

He's a right-handed hitter.

 

Hmmmm.....way fewer ABs in '06. Was he possibly nursing an injury?

 

I don't think you are looking at his line correctly. He had 120 ABs in 05 and 199 in 06.

 

And 199 ABs at short-season A-ball is about 2/3 of the season if not more.

 

He played in 56 out of Princeton's 64 games...second highest total on the team.

 

I must have read it wrong. I thought the first number was ABs, hence 2005 = 325, 2006 = 256.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Hendry comments on the deal: (Link.)

 

“It’s one of those that makes a lot of sense for both clubs,” Jim Hendry said. “I think it’s a good opportunity for J.K. I certainly feel he can help somebody in the fourth or fifth spot or as a long man or certainly be a guy you would go get right away from Triple-A if you needed him.

 

“We’ve got some depth now where he was going to fall behind some other people. After we added Cliff Floyd and (Jeff) Samardzija (to the 40-man), we knew we were going to be trading someone.”

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I was always a fan of Ryu, but he's not going to be significantly better than Marquis. Because he has a deep repetoire he might have some initial success, but his stuff isn't dynamic enough anymore to maintain it.

 

What did PECOTA/CHONE/etc project for the rookies from last year?

[CubColtPacer]

I was always a fan of Ryu, but he's not going to be significantly better than Marquis. Because he has a deep repetoire he might have some initial success, but his stuff isn't dynamic enough anymore to maintain it.

 

What did PECOTA/CHONE/etc project for the rookies from last year?

 

I found the ZIPS projections from last year-here are a few notables:

 

Williams-165.0 IP, 4.36 ERA, 104K/62BB

Guzman-41.0 IP, 4.39 ERA, 28K/10BB

Ryu-155.0 IP, 4.59 ERA, 110K/46BB

Mitre-141.0 IP, 4.72 ERA, 111K/55BB

Nolasco-154.0 IP, 4.73 ERA, 143K/56BB

Hill-130.0 IP, 4.78 ERA, 156K/65BB

Brownlie-110.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 110K/67BB

Koronka-151.0 IP, 5.01 ERA, 110K/67BB

 

Marshall, Marmol, and Mateo were not listed.

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

 

I'll post the others if/and as I find them.

 

Edit-BTW, Zips was found to be the most accurate system for pitchers last year-based on this study:

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/2006_projection_results/

Edited February 14, 2007 by CubColtPacer

[cubweiser03]

I suggest that some of you look Reinhard's splits from last year, rumors had TB reworking Reinhard and later in the year, he went back to what worked early on.

 

http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Gregory%20Reinhard&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=489234

 

The Pre and Post AS splits are definetly encouraging. Numbers that suggest significant change.

 

Ryu to me was at best a middle relief pithcer. How many back of the rotation guys to the Cubs need? If you looked on the scouting report of the Cubs best pitching prospects close to the Majors, or in it for that matter, there would be like 8 'back of the rotation' starters. That phrase gets thrown around way too much. Add all the 'front of rotation' starters and you got yourself a 12 man rotation.

[Rob]

what an awful trade

 

thanks jim, jason marquis is certainly way better.

 

Actually, he probably is.

 

PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

 

CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close.

 

I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself).

I will go out on a limb and say that all three will be wrong and Marquis will be about a run better than Ryu.

 

Of course you will.

 

You have no professional experience with projecting performances, nor do you have professional credibility that needs sustaining in order to ensure the money keeps coming in (at least not in this area). Not only that, but now Ryu has switched to the AL East.

 

No offense intended of course, but I think I'll continue trusting the people that get paid to make these projections. After everything is said and done, I suspect Ryu's ERA will be slightly better after adjusting for league context.

[CubColtPacer]

what an awful trade

 

thanks jim, jason marquis is certainly way better.

 

Actually, he probably is.

 

PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

 

CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close.

 

I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself).

I will go out on a limb and say that all three will be wrong and Marquis will be about a run better than Ryu.

 

Of course you will.

 

You have no professional experience with projecting performances, nor do you have professional credibility that needs sustaining in order to ensure the money keeps coming in (at least not in this area). Not only that, but now Ryu has switched to the AL East.

 

No offense intended of course, but I think I'll continue trusting the people that get paid to make these projections. After everything is said and done, I suspect Ryu's ERA will be slightly better after adjusting for league context.

 

The big question I have with pitching projections are their minor league translations. It is already proven as a whole that pitching numbers are not nearly as accurate as hitting numbers. When I look at the ZIPS projections for 2007 and I see several minor leaguers who they project could have less than a 5 ERA right now in the majors (Mateo, Pignaitello, Lightenberg, Ryu, Pawelek, Guzman, Reith, Gallagher, O'Malley)-a couple of those have a decent chance of acheiving that, but a few of them would have a very small chance of hitting that number. That's the part that doesn't make sense to me-unfortunately, most of the time those projections never get to be tested, and when they are tested it's usually only with prospects who are absolutely ready. When a team has a situation like the Cubs did last year, most times I think those prospects from lower down in the minors or with lesser stuff-their numbers will not translate as well to the majors as the computers would say they would.

[Danny82]

what an awful trade

 

thanks jim, jason marquis is certainly way better.

 

Actually, he probably is.

 

PECOTA is projecting about a half run of ERA in Ryu's favor.

 

CHONE predicts nearly an earned run Ryu's favor and ZiPS favors Ryu as well, although Dan sees them being pretty close.

 

I keep forgetting to use ZiPS and CHONE when I make points about pitching. PECOTA may as well be the definitive source on projections for hitters... but its pitching lags behind (due to the very unpredictable nature of pitching itself).

I will go out on a limb and say that all three will be wrong and Marquis will be about a run better than Ryu.

 

Of course you will.

 

You have no professional experience with projecting performances, nor do you have professional credibility that needs sustaining in order to ensure the money keeps coming in (at least not in this area). Not only that, but now Ryu has switched to the AL East.

 

No offense intended of course, but I think I'll continue trusting the people that get paid to make these projections. After everything is said and done, I suspect Ryu's ERA will be slightly better after adjusting for league context.

I'm not asking for your trust. All I'm asking is that you to remember my prediction come October. I don't think that Marquis is that good of a pitcher. But I think Ryu is worse. I'm choosing to not accept wholesale some predictions from these other sources because, as is detailed before, I'm not sold on their predictions for rookie pitchers. That's my choice. We'll see next fall if I was right or they were.

[RynoRules]

How many ospreys are there in the greater Tampa area?

 

Dunno, but I suspect there will be fewer after their morning paper arrives.

[nilodnayr]

I was always a fan of Ryu, but he's not going to be significantly better than Marquis. Because he has a deep repetoire he might have some initial success, but his stuff isn't dynamic enough anymore to maintain it.

 

What did PECOTA/CHONE/etc project for the rookies from last year?

 

I found the ZIPS projections from last year-here are a few notables:

 

Williams-165.0 IP, 4.36 ERA, 104K/62BB

Guzman-41.0 IP, 4.39 ERA, 28K/10BB

Ryu-155.0 IP, 4.59 ERA, 110K/46BB

Mitre-141.0 IP, 4.72 ERA, 111K/55BB

Nolasco-154.0 IP, 4.73 ERA, 143K/56BB

Hill-130.0 IP, 4.78 ERA, 156K/65BB

Brownlie-110.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 110K/67BB

Koronka-151.0 IP, 5.01 ERA, 110K/67BB

 

Marshall, Marmol, and Mateo were not listed.

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

 

I'll post the others if/and as I find them.

 

Edit-BTW, Zips was found to be the most accurate system for pitchers last year-based on this study:

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/2006_projection_results/

 

The differences in the rs for the pitching projections really aren't significant. CHONE fell below Marcel (thats gotta hurt), but I think he made a lot of upgrades in the offseason.

[CubColtPacer]

I was always a fan of Ryu, but he's not going to be significantly better than Marquis. Because he has a deep repetoire he might have some initial success, but his stuff isn't dynamic enough anymore to maintain it.

 

What did PECOTA/CHONE/etc project for the rookies from last year?

 

I found the ZIPS projections from last year-here are a few notables:

 

Williams-165.0 IP, 4.36 ERA, 104K/62BB

Guzman-41.0 IP, 4.39 ERA, 28K/10BB

Ryu-155.0 IP, 4.59 ERA, 110K/46BB

Mitre-141.0 IP, 4.72 ERA, 111K/55BB

Nolasco-154.0 IP, 4.73 ERA, 143K/56BB

Hill-130.0 IP, 4.78 ERA, 156K/65BB

Brownlie-110.0 IP, 4.91 ERA, 110K/67BB

Koronka-151.0 IP, 5.01 ERA, 110K/67BB

 

Marshall, Marmol, and Mateo were not listed.

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2006_zips_projections_chicago_cubs/

 

I'll post the others if/and as I find them.

 

Edit-BTW, Zips was found to be the most accurate system for pitchers last year-based on this study:

 

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/2006_projection_results/

 

The differences in the rs for the pitching projections really aren't significant. CHONE fell below Marcel (thats gotta hurt), but I think he made a lot of upgrades in the offseason.

 

That's true. None of them were all that accurate last year (certainly not nearly the way it is with hitters), but they were all close to the same. I was just pointing that particular thing out just in case somebody came back with that zips just had a tough year picking pitchers, and some other projection was a lot better.

[Coach C]

I was reading the Kansas City Star, and on the sports section, where it made a tibit of the trade, it said "Cubs trade Bird Killer"

 

http://www.kansascity.com/mld/kansascity/sports/16692325.htm

 

Ryu, 23, was originally signed by the Cubs as a non-drafted free agent on June 1, 2001, and is 0-1 with an 8.40 ERA in 10 games. Ryu got in trouble in Florida in 2003 when as a minor-league pitcher he threw a baseball and knocked an osprey from its perch before a Florida State League game. The bird later died.

 

I was like "Huh, that's the first I heard of it.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Aww man, now both Ryu and Sisco are gone! The Cubs will need two new minor league sparring partners.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/263355.html

[Outshined_One]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/263355.html

 

Chicago scouting director Tim Wilken knows Reinhard and Lopez well, having drafted them while in the same job with the Devil Rays in 2005.

 

I like this deal a little better now. ;)

[UK1679666180]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/news/263355.html

 

Chicago scouting director Tim Wilken knows Reinhard and Lopez well, having drafted them while in the same job with the Devil Rays in 2005.

 

I like this deal a little better now. ;)

 

You guys are finally putting the pieces of this puzzle together. :)