Big Z will leave

[PrimeTime]

I love Z to death, but referring to yourself in the 3rd person? Who the heck do you think you are? Don't turn into Albert Pujols and turn into a huge prima donna.

 

LOL anyone remember the classic Seinfeld episode?

 

http://www.seinfeld-fan.net/pictures/george/george_costanza005.jpg

 

" George likes his chicken Spicy! "

Edited February 13, 2007 by PrimeTime

[mhuber92211]

Another good comparison is the Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen trade. And Johnson was notably better then than Z is now. I think some people here are overvaluing what Z should fetch on the trade market. Like I said in that other thread, I would be ecstatic with Jared Weaver and Howie Kendrick...although that is purely speculation on his potential value.

 

This was the trade I was thinking about comparing the Z situation to. I don't think that we are overvaluing him here though. When you hear the talking heads speaking of the Z situation, they are describing it as Z being the best arbitration player this year. That is better then Howard (prior to his deal) and Cabrera.

 

If that is the case, would you trade Z for either of those players? I would.

[Danny82]

I guess when I said there was some overvaluing going on, I was referring to Tim's statement in the other thread that the negotiations wouldn't start for him until Weaver, Kendrick, and Adenhart were on the table. I think that would be viewed as an unreasonable request by the Angels.

[NCCubFan]

I love Z to death, but referring to yourself in the 3rd person? Who the heck do you think you are? Don't turn into Albert Pujols and turn into a huge prima donna.

NCCubFan agrees. :D

[davearm]

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

That's not a flaw. In fact the situations are perfectly analogous.

 

The only reason the Cubs would deal Zambrano is if they can't (or won't) pay Z what he is going to demand as a FA.

 

At that point, their choice is between taking the players he could be traded for, or taking the draft picks when he leaves. Same exact choice the Royals had with Beltran.

 

No, the Cubs also might deal Z if they feel the prospects would be a better option than trading Z, but that they would sign Z as a fallback option-the Royals did not have that luxury of having that fallback option.

I just don't see it in the either-or terms you're describing.

 

Plan A is to re-sign Zambrano. Period. Put every effort into getting an extension done now. Only if Plan A fails, and all avenues have been exhausted, do you move on to Plan B, which is to look at trades.

 

So by design, if you're onto Plan B and investigating the trade route, then re-signing Z is no longer a fallback option (since if it was, things wouldn't have reached the Plan B stage in the first place).

[abuck1220]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

[TB_11]

The decision to trade Z for prospects would be downright dumb. Teams pray for players in the minors to come up and display the talent and durability that Z has shown; prospects like that don't come up every year for every team. The Cubs have the financial resources to pay Z a contract that will keep him on the team, and the rest of their moves indicate they're playing to win now.

 

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

 

There is no difference between Z and a FA if he's going after Zito money. The fact that he came up through our org doesn't matter, other than the abuse Dusty and company put on his arm. Who cares if he was our prospect? That has no impact on the current decision - other than him giving us a hometown discount, which he isn't.

 

I'd rather have control of a guy like Weaver for 5+ years and another prospect or 2 than Z with a Zito contract.

 

You misread my post. I'm not saying the fact that Z came up in our org should win him any additional dollars. I'm saying the odds of seeing the amount of production we get out of Z from a prospect or prospects is very slim, no matter how highly regarded they might be.

 

The amount of production you're going to get out of a legit elite prospect per dollar far exceeds what Z gives you.

 

Z is a stud, but if he wants to be paid like Zito, that counts against his value to a ballclub in a big way.

 

"Going to get" and "production per dollar" are not terms a team that wants to win now should be saying.

[frostwyrm]

Hendry simply cannot afford to let Z walk if he wants to keep his job. If the money is not available now Hendry will just megabackload the deal, which is what he likes to do anyway. I fully expect to see Z getting over $20M per year in the 2nd half of his contract.

[CuseCubFan69]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

 

Meet Juan Guzman the second, eh?

 

Let's hope Mr. Hendry doesn't continue to shop at the dollar store from here on after making all those big deals. I would hate for him to have shot his wad and to not have had a plan for Z.

[Banedon]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

 

Exactly. It's hard to begrudge Z for playing hardball, when the Cubs spent a ton of money on free agents like they have, before locking him up. What he's asking for isn't some crazy number given the pitching market. Maybe he's got some attitude, but that's part of what makes him a great pitcher.

 

Trade him for Cabrera...hehe.

[USSoccer]

I guess when I said there was some overvaluing going on, I was referring to Tim's statement in the other thread that the negotiations wouldn't start for him until Weaver, Kendrick, and Adenhart were on the table. I think that would be viewed as an unreasonable request by the Angels.

 

I'd settle for Weaver and Aybar, with maybe one lower level guy as well.

[frostwyrm]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

Collateral damage from giving away Ricky Nolasco for peanuts. Marquis most likely wouldn't be here if we still had Nolasco.

[davearm]

My first choice is to make every effort to sign him. Assuming that becomes impossible or too burdensome, we have to let the season progress some before moving on anything else.

 

If we weren't trying to win this year, then it would obviously be better to trade him now. However, it is clear the Cubs want to and plan to make a run at it in 2007. With that being the case, our pitching staff cannot at this point handle a trade of Zambrano. As long as the Cubs are in the race, Zambrano will be kept. That may run the risk of losing him for merely draft picks, but that's the risk that would need to be taken. A team serious about winning in the current season doesn't trade their best pitcher in the midst of a penant race.

 

Now, if the Cubs begin to stumble a bit where it appears the playoffs are a long-shot, then yes entertain all offers for Zambrano. My guess, depending on teams' need of pitching, those offers could be substantial.

I agree that this is the most logical and prudent course of action.

 

However I'm convinced that if Z is neither extended nor traded before opening day, we're ultimately going to watch him sign elsewhere and be left with the draft picks.

 

So I struggle with the fact that the most likely outcome of the most prudent course of action is (IMO) the least desirable of the three possibilities: re-sign, trade, and 2 draft picks.

[UMFan83]

I'm sure this was mentioned in this thread, but I am sure Z knows how much stress has been put on his arm the last three years. And then you think about the Cubs history of injured pitchers, and it suddenly makes sense to me why Z wants to be locked up as soon as possible.

[CuseCubFan69]

I'm sure this was mentioned in this thread, but I am sure Z knows how much stress has been put on his arm the last three years. And then you think about the Cubs history of injured pitchers, and it suddenly makes sense to me why Z wants to be locked up as soon as possible.

 

Oh I agree 100% and I don't blame the man at all. If Hendry truely had vision he would have signed Z last off season to a 3/4 year deal if Z would have been receptive to that.

[Bull]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

Collateral damage from giving away Ricky Nolasco for peanuts. Marquis most likely wouldn't be here if we still had Nolasco.

 

Nolasco as a starter 9 10 4.96 22 119.2

Marshall 6 9 5.59 24 125.2

 

Why would nolasco have prvented them from bringing in Marquis?

[Amazing_Grace]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

 

Preach on, brother.

 

Yet another reason the Marquis signing looks stupid. I'd rather spend 18M on Z and take my chances with prospects and reclamation projects rather than spend the same amount of money on Lilly and Marquis.

 

If the Cubs give Z Zito money, they'll have around 70M dollars in payroll committed to 6 players (Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Lilly, Marquis, Zambrano). That leaves just 30-40M left to sign 19 other guys. Unless the Cubs managment really plans on taking the payroll into NY/Boston territory, I don't see this happening.

 

I think everything hinges on where the Cubs are in the race this year. As everyone has said, if they're in the race, they can't, or more accurately won't, trade Zambrano. If they're out of the race, then this becomes the equivalent of when Randy Johnson got traded out of Seattle midseason. That's probably the most accurate comparison, moreso than the position player comparisons. Ace pitchers are just not available at the trade deadline that often, and once it became clear the Cubs would move him, teams would bid just to keep other teams from getting him.

 

I don't think it will be horrible if all the Cubs get for Z are 2 picks. The farm system badly needs an infusion of talent. Ultimately, I think this is exactly what will happen because I doubt the Cubs will be out of the race by midseason.

[CuseCubFan69]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

 

Preach on, brother.

 

Yet another reason the Marquis signing looks stupid. I'd rather spend 18M on Z and take my chances with prospects and reclamation projects rather than spend the same amount of money on Lilly and Marquis.

 

If the Cubs give Z Zito money, they'll have around 70M dollars in payroll committed to 6 players (Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Lilly, Marquis, Zambrano). That leaves just 30-40M left to sign 19 other guys. Unless the Cubs managment really plans on taking the payroll into NY/Boston territory, I don't see this happening.

 

I think everything hinges on where the Cubs are in the race this year. As everyone has said, if they're in the race, they can't, or more accurately won't, trade Zambrano. If they're out of the race, then this becomes the equivalent of when Randy Johnson got traded out of Seattle midseason. That's probably the most accurate comparison, moreso than the position player comparisons. Ace pitchers are just not available at the trade deadline that often, and once it became clear the Cubs would move him, teams would bid just to keep other teams from getting him.

 

I don't think it will be horrible if all the Cubs get for Z are 2 picks. The farm system badly needs an infusion of talent. Ultimately, I think this is exactly what will happen because I doubt the Cubs will be out of the race by midseason.

 

I'd be shocked if the Cubs are out of it at the trading deadline.

 

If Z is traded I want a huge impact player like ARod or 2 or 3 can not possibly miss prospects.

 

I think the Dodgers might be a decent team to trade with. They have an abundance of pitching and they could move a couple to the Cubs along with a top prospect like Kemp and not miss a beat.

[frostwyrm]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

Collateral damage from giving away Ricky Nolasco for peanuts. Marquis most likely wouldn't be here if we still had Nolasco.

 

Nolasco as a starter 9 10 4.96 22 119.2

Marshall 6 9 5.59 24 125.2

 

Why would nolasco have prvented them from bringing in Marquis?

Nolasco would definitely have Marquis' spot in the rotation. Nolasco's ERA was somewhat skewed by a few meltdown games but the bulk of his starts were quite good. His season numbers will get a lot better if he can can cut down on those occasional disaster type games. More experience should help in that area.

[soapy]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

 

Exactly. It's hard to begrudge Z for playing hardball, when the Cubs spent a ton of money on free agents like they have, before locking him up. What he's asking for isn't some crazy number given the pitching market. Maybe he's got some attitude, but that's part of what makes him a great pitcher.

 

This is exactly why I get so upset with people when they say, "who cares? It's not your money. The Cubs can afford it. It's only $5 million. Etc." While that's all true, it adds up and (potentially) haunts you in situations like this.

 

Overpaying for someone like Soriano is one thing. Overpaying or guys like DeRosa, Marquis, Rusch, Perez, etc. is quite another.

 

Anyway, with the "win now" motto the Cubs allegedly have, it makes little sense to trade Zambrano. I'm skeptical he's going to demand the kind of impact players/prospects many are speculating. I think expecting a package like Weaver, Kendrick and Adenhart is a little unreastic. If that's possible, by all means I'd do it. I just don't think it could happen. The only feasable option for Hendry at this point is to sign Zambrano long term and hope he avoids major injury.

[Bull]

wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

[CoolHandLuke]

this is where giving jason marquis $21 mil might come back and bite you in the ass.

Collateral damage from giving away Ricky Nolasco for peanuts. Marquis most likely wouldn't be here if we still had Nolasco.

 

Nolasco as a starter 9 10 4.96 22 119.2

Marshall 6 9 5.59 24 125.2

 

Why would nolasco have prvented them from bringing in Marquis?

Nolasco would definitely have Marquis' spot in the rotation. Nolasco's ERA was somewhat skewed by a few meltdown games but the bulk of his starts were quite good. His season numbers will get a lot better if he can can cut down on those occasional disaster type games. More experience should help in that area.

 

not to mention that a .63 difference in ERA is fairly significant.

[CuseCubFan69]

wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I think it really depends on the budget but I'm sure he could backload it.

[Outshined_One]

Another good comparison is the Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen trade. And Johnson was notably better then than Z is now. I think some people here are overvaluing what Z should fetch on the trade market. Like I said in that other thread, I would be ecstatic with Jared Weaver and Howie Kendrick...although that is purely speculation on his potential value.

 

While in hindsight, that might appear to be a deal which was not particularly comparable to some of the proposed deals we've been throwing around for Zambrano, Garcia and Guillen were Top 100 prospects at the time, with both producing quite well in AAA in 1998. RJ was also 34/35 in that season.

 

Believe me, the Cubs can get a comparable, if not better, package for Zambrano. 25/26 year old aces with a history of success are incredibly rare on the trade market. Like I said, any team in contention that gets Zambrano will be punching a playoff ticket. Not only that, they will likely become the favorite to make the World Series.

[erik316wttn]

wow. Talk about over-reaction.

 

Hendry will sign Z to a one year deal before spring training and have him signed to a multi-year deal before opening day.

 

We've seen this with Wood, and Lee, and sort of with Ramirez.

 

I don't think panic about losing your best pitcher in over a decade is over-reaction, especially seeing as this demand is coming after some really questionable spending has been made. Had this demand come in November, he'd be locked up by now. But with the stupid contracts given to Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa, etc with almost no thought about locking up Z long term I think this is a perfect time to panic.