Rothschild Speaks....

[fromthestretch]

I understand your stance, and your opinion - that's not the problem. I'd like you to answer the question about where overthrowing cutoff men, throwing to the wrong base, Barrett calling 8,000 fastballs (on 0-2 and 1-2 counts) a game, Pierre playing about 10 feet behind second base, etc etc comes into play by numbers?

 

Edit: Meant to type 0-2 and 1-2 :D

 

I'm not picking on you here, since a few others have mentioned how bad Barrett is at calling games, but this just isn't a strong argument. Chances are, unless the signs are coming from the dugout, the pitcher has every right to shake him off until he gets the sign he wants. (And if the signs are coming from the dugout, that's not Barrett's fault.) Bottom line, the pitcher is in control of what he throws more often than not.

 

Other things to consider is that even if Barrett is calling for an 0-2 or 1-2 fastball, he's certainly not calling for the pitcher to throw it in the middle of the strikezone. Depending on the hitter, a fastball thrown to the right spot might be the right call in that situation, but it's still up to the pitcher to execute.

 

Pitchers who blame their problems on the catcher's ability (or lack thereof) to call a game are simply looking for a scapegoat.

 

I think I've hijacked this thread enough, if you want to copy this to a new thread, I'd be glad to reply.

 

Also - this is a really good conversation :D

 

I think unless Tim or another mod wants to split the thread, you can reply here. This technically is a thread about quotes from the pitching coach, so I think pitch selection and game-calling are relevent.

[USSoccer]

While true that the things you mention are not captured by defensive efficiency, those 5-6 plays by Cedeno (and I think your memory is betraying you on the number) are pretty insignificant in measuring the defense when compared to the thousands of balls put in play during the year. A small change in the defensive efficiency makes up for a tremendous number of the gaffes you mention.

 

I disagree with you for yet another reason that you can't quantify. Bone headed plays, even if irregular, lead to your club being the 2006 Cubs.

 

Maybe, but 10 plays over the course of 162 games isn't going to affect a team's overall defensive efficiency, as opposed to 20 plays, or 1. You're talking about hundreds of balls in play over the course of a season.

[fromthestretch]

I understand your stance, and your opinion - that's not the problem. I'd like you to answer the question about where overthrowing cutoff men, throwing to the wrong base, Barrett calling 8,000 fastballs (on 0-2 and 1-2 counts) a game, Pierre playing about 10 feet behind second base, etc etc comes into play by numbers?

 

Edit: Meant to type 0-2 and 1-2 :D

 

I'm not picking on you here, since a few others have mentioned how bad Barrett is at calling games, but this just isn't a strong argument. Chances are, unless the signs are coming from the dugout, the pitcher has every right to shake him off until he gets the sign he wants. (And if the signs are coming from the dugout, that's not Barrett's fault.) Bottom line, the pitcher is in control of what he throws more often than not.

 

Other things to consider is that even if Barrett is calling for an 0-2 or 1-2 fastball, he's certainly not calling for the pitcher to throw it in the middle of the strikezone. Depending on the hitter, a fastball thrown to the right spot might be the right call in that situation, but it's still up to the pitcher to execute.

 

Pitchers who blame their problems on the catcher's ability (or lack thereof) to call a game are simply looking for a scapegoat.

Catchers who are receiving for pitchers who can't find the zone with their breaking balls may not have much choice on what they call, either.

 

Exactly. This wasn't exactly a team that exhibited pinpoint control.

[DiamondMind]

To TT: In 2006 I broke my leg falling off a step ladder cleaning gutters. I didn't have anything to do BUT watch baseball. As for a number? Jeez. At least 150-155 Cubs games. At least 100 Mariners games. About 100 Dodgers games. Scattered numbers for the rest, with only a few teams receiving no interest (Atlanta, KC, all the NLC teams). Trust me buddy, my g/f will unfortunately vouch for me on this. :D

 

To Tim: I have edit OCD. Sorry.

 

About Barrett: Since the second he became a Cub, he's been a terrible game caller. Again, this is just my opinion so if you ask for some sort of numerical proof you're out of luck. The guy's a converted third basemen, came from a decrepit organization, served his first years with the Cubs under a brain-dead manager and an arguably brain dead pitching coach....you can't fault the guy. But @#($)@# I counted a million fastballs on 0-2 counts.

[CubColtPacer]

 

What about after the out is recorded, and you miss the cutoff man by throwing it 5 feet above his head? Where's that written down in numbers? What about the ability to not only record outs - but limit advancing base runners? What about double plays? I could go on and on here.

The fundamental insight that spurred the development of this metric was the realization that balls in play that turn into outs for every pitcher tend towards the same value. The primary variables are: 1) type of batted ball (gb, fb, ld) and 2) defensive efficiency. #1 varies by pitcher and #2 varies by team. Not every individual ball has the same chance of becoming an out, but over the course of thousands of balls put in play per year, this has been repeatedly shown to average out.

 

What this means is that looking at the efficiency of the defense is a very valid metric.

 

I understand your stance, and your opinion - that's not the problem. I'd like you to answer the question about where overthrowing cutoff men, throwing to the wrong base, Barrett calling 8,000 fastballs (on 0-2 and 1-2 counts) a game, Pierre playing about 10 feet behind second base, etc etc comes into play by numbers?

 

Edit: Meant to type 0-2 and 1-2 :D

I replied to your post before you edited it.

 

I game the answer to your question in my response to cubcoltpacer. In short, the defensive efficiency on thousands of balls in play is far, far more impactful than what happens on any 50 plays you care to pick out during the year. And while you watch the Cubs all the time and those 50 plays stick out in your mind and tell you the Cubs have a bad defense, the truth of the matter is that every team has some number of plays just as stupid every year. But however many it is, and however great the difference in those between the Cubs and the team with the smallest number of gaffes, the rate of making outs on thousands of balls is overwhelmingly more important.

 

With the defensive efficiency ratings and the number of at bats total for the season, the difference between 3rd and 22nd defensively is less than 100 plays. The variability of those plays that cannot be measured could swing it that much. From seeing the 2006 Cubs, they had all those things go wrong. Their OF defense gave up base after base. Their infield defense (especially Cedeno) made a larger percentage of their errors than normal during the middle of big innings. Those plays (and others) caused the difference between being a good defense statistically, and a defense that blew several games in the 2nd half (and I could go provide the examples if needed) and was overall a below average defense.

[baseball7897]

To TT: In 2006 I broke my leg falling off a step ladder cleaning gutters. I didn't have anything to do BUT watch baseball. As for a number? Jeez. At least 150-155 Cubs games. At least 100 Mariners games. About 100 Dodgers games. Scattered numbers for the rest, with only a few teams receiving no interest (Atlanta, KC, all the NLC teams). Trust me buddy, my g/f will unfortunately vouch for me on this. :D

 

To Tim: I have edit OCD. Sorry.

About Barrett: Since the second he became a Cub, he's been a terrible game caller. Again, this is just my opinion so if you ask for some sort of numerical proof you're out of luck. The guy's a converted third basemen, came from a decrepit organization, served his first years with the Cubs under a brain-dead manager and an arguably brain dead pitching coach....you can't fault the guy. But @#($)@# I counted a million fastballs on 0-2 counts.

 

Agreed.

[CubColtPacer]

I know the pitching staff are vastly different, but at 3B, Ramirez started about 1/3rd of the double plays that Rolen started.

 

In addition, all of the Cubs that played 1B started about half as many double plays as Pujols.

 

At SS, Eckstein started 42 and turned 42 double plays, while Cedeno played 100 more innings and started 36 and turned 26.

 

Second base is too fragmented on both teams to do any decent analysis, in my opinion.

 

That's a very interesting analysis. While you're right that the Cubs should have less double plays (due to the high strikeout totals from the pitchers), the striking difference in the numbers does back up the claim that the Cubs could not seem to turn the double play when they needed to last year, and that it hurt them greatly during the season.

[CuseCubFan69]

I know the pitching staff are vastly different, but at 3B, Ramirez started about 1/3rd of the double plays that Rolen started.

 

In addition, all of the Cubs that played 1B started about half as many double plays as Pujols.

 

At SS, Eckstein started 42 and turned 42 double plays, while Cedeno played 100 more innings and started 36 and turned 26.

 

Second base is too fragmented on both teams to do any decent analysis, in my opinion.

 

I wonder how much the high grass had to do with that.

[fromthestretch]

To TT: In 2006 I broke my leg falling off a step ladder cleaning gutters. I didn't have anything to do BUT watch baseball. As for a number? Jeez. At least 150-155 Cubs games. At least 100 Mariners games. About 100 Dodgers games. Scattered numbers for the rest, with only a few teams receiving no interest (Atlanta, KC, all the NLC teams). Trust me buddy, my g/f will unfortunately vouch for me on this. :D

 

To Tim: I have edit OCD. Sorry.

 

About Barrett: Since the second he became a Cub, he's been a terrible game caller. Again, this is just my opinion so if you ask for some sort of numerical proof you're out of luck. The guy's a converted third basemen, came from a decrepit organization, served his first years with the Cubs under a brain-dead manager and an arguably brain dead pitching coach....you can't fault the guy. But @#($)@# I counted a million fastballs on 0-2 counts.

 

I'm not asking for numbers, and I'm certainly not claiming he's great at calling a game. What I am saying is that you might be over-estimating the impact that actually has.

 

Sure, every pitcher would love to have a catcher that can call a great game, and I think every catcher who reaches the majors should have a decent idea of how to call a game. However, the pitcher is the one that throws the ball. And unless specifically told otherwise, he has the ability to shake off the catcher. I'd like to think that if a starting pitcher has an issue with the way his catcher calls games, the pitcher would be smart enough to sit down with him before the game and go over his gameplan for approaching the opposing lineup, talk to him between innings, etc.

 

And for the record, I'm all for throwing 0-2 fastballs...just not in the strikezone. You can use it to set the hitter up for something else. You can try to throw it a few inches off the plate to see if the ump will give you the call or if the hitter will fish for it. You can throw it inside off the plate to try to move the hitter back a little. I'm not saying throw it in EVERY 0-2 count. But if you can spot it well, it can be an effective 0-2 pitch.

[Guest]

I know the pitching staff are vastly different, but at 3B, Ramirez started about 1/3rd of the double plays that Rolen started.

 

In addition, all of the Cubs that played 1B started about half as many double plays as Pujols.

 

At SS, Eckstein started 42 and turned 42 double plays, while Cedeno played 100 more innings and started 36 and turned 26.

 

Second base is too fragmented on both teams to do any decent analysis, in my opinion.

 

That's a very interesting analysis. While you're right that the Cubs should have less double plays (due to the high strikeout totals from the pitchers), the striking difference in the numbers does back up the claim that the Cubs could not seem to turn the double play when they needed to last year, and that it hurt them greatly during the season.

Before I jump to any conclusions, I'd like to see this in reference to ground ball rates for the two pitching staffs. The Cards have seemed to have a philosophy for a while on really stressing the two seam fastball and getting excessive amounts of ground balls.

[baseball7897]

To TT: In 2006 I broke my leg falling off a step ladder cleaning gutters. I didn't have anything to do BUT watch baseball. As for a number? Jeez. At least 150-155 Cubs games. At least 100 Mariners games. About 100 Dodgers games. Scattered numbers for the rest, with only a few teams receiving no interest (Atlanta, KC, all the NLC teams). Trust me buddy, my g/f will unfortunately vouch for me on this. :D

 

To Tim: I have edit OCD. Sorry.

 

About Barrett: Since the second he became a Cub, he's been a terrible game caller. Again, this is just my opinion so if you ask for some sort of numerical proof you're out of luck. The guy's a converted third basemen, came from a decrepit organization, served his first years with the Cubs under a brain-dead manager and an arguably brain dead pitching coach....you can't fault the guy. But @#($)@# I counted a million fastballs on 0-2 counts.

 

I'm not asking for numbers, and I'm certainly not claiming he's great at calling a game. What I am saying is that you might be over-estimating the impact that actually has.

 

Sure, every pitcher would love to have a catcher that can call a great game, and I think every catcher who reaches the majors should have a decent idea of how to call a game. However, the pitcher is the one that throws the ball. And unless specifically told otherwise, he has the ability to shake off the catcher. I'd like to think that if a starting pitcher has an issue with the way his catcher calls games, the pitcher would be smart enough to sit down with him before the game and go over his gameplan for approaching the opposing lineup, talk to him between innings, etc.

 

And for the record, I'm all for throwing 0-2 fastballs...just not in the strikezone. You can use it to set the hitter up for something else. You can try to throw it a few inches off the plate to see if the ump will give you the call or if the hitter will fish for it. You can throw it inside off the plate to try to move the hitter back a little. I'm not saying throw it in EVERY 0-2 count. But if you can spot it well, it can be an effective 0-2 pitch.

 

Agreed. The fastball is still the best pitch in baseball. If you can locate your fastball consistently, you will have a whole lot of success.

[UK1679666180]

All depends on a pitcher's command of the FB at the time and the abilities of the hitter.

 

A P's inability to have command of his FB over the season (when he has missed, he has missed over the plate) would make it diff. to call for a set-up FB inside off the plate to set-up his curve low and away. In that case, better off playing the %. If his breaking pitch or off-speed is better than his FB, limit being cute with the FB.

 

If the initial scotuing report is off, so will the game calling. Game calling becomes a greater factor after the 1st 3 innings rather than the start as instinct and knowledge play a greater role in adjusting to the current situation of only that game rather than what has taken place previously.

[Coach C]

To TT: In 2006 I broke my leg falling off a step ladder cleaning gutters. I didn't have anything to do BUT watch baseball. As for a number? Jeez. At least 150-155 Cubs games. At least 100 Mariners games. About 100 Dodgers games. Scattered numbers for the rest, with only a few teams receiving no interest (Atlanta, KC, all the NLC teams). Trust me buddy, my g/f will unfortunately vouch for me on this. :D

 

To Tim: I have edit OCD. Sorry.

 

About Barrett: Since the second he became a Cub, he's been a terrible game caller. Again, this is just my opinion so if you ask for some sort of numerical proof you're out of luck. The guy's a converted third basemen, came from a decrepit organization, served his first years with the Cubs under a brain-dead manager and an arguably brain dead pitching coach....you can't fault the guy. But @#($)@# I counted a million fastballs on 0-2 counts.

 

I'm not asking for numbers, and I'm certainly not claiming he's great at calling a game. What I am saying is that you might be over-estimating the impact that actually has.

 

Sure, every pitcher would love to have a catcher that can call a great game, and I think every catcher who reaches the majors should have a decent idea of how to call a game. However, the pitcher is the one that throws the ball. And unless specifically told otherwise, he has the ability to shake off the catcher. I'd like to think that if a starting pitcher has an issue with the way his catcher calls games, the pitcher would be smart enough to sit down with him before the game and go over his gameplan for approaching the opposing lineup, talk to him between innings, etc.

 

And for the record, I'm all for throwing 0-2 fastballs...just not in the strikezone. You can use it to set the hitter up for something else. You can try to throw it a few inches off the plate to see if the ump will give you the call or if the hitter will fish for it. You can throw it inside off the plate to try to move the hitter back a little. I'm not saying throw it in EVERY 0-2 count. But if you can spot it well, it can be an effective 0-2 pitch.

 

Agreed. The fastball is still the best pitch in baseball. If you can locate your fastball consistently, you will have a whole lot of success.

 

Which the Cub pitchers are obviously allergic to location of fastballs, or previous records show. Heh.

[Balsa]

Before I jump to any conclusions, I'd like to see this in reference to ground ball rates for the two pitching staffs. The Cards have seemed to have a philosophy for a while on really stressing the two seam fastball and getting excessive amounts of ground balls.

 

STL: 46% GB | 19% LD | 34% FB

 

CHN: 42% GB | 20% LD | 39% FB

 

MLB: 44% GB | 20% LD | 37% FB

[Handlebar McSkullet]

I wanted to chime in here because im not as well versed in statistical analysis as many here are, but I also haven't watched nearly enough games (besides cubs and tigers) to allow me to give a subjective opinion on who is "bad or good" in comparison. Here are a couple of questions and points that I would appreciate feedback on, and maybe that can be tied in to the discussion. (btw: this is a very good thread regardless of the title).

 

1. I thought/heard/read that errors(being used by both the subjective and analytical crowd here) is a fundamentally flawed statistic like saves because a) errors are always going to be skewed toward the athletic outfielder. The comparison between Cedeno and David Eckstein would be a good example because cedeno can get to many more balls hit then Eckstein. Same can be said for the comparison between Chris Duncan and Jock. Duncan cannot get to the same amount of balls that Duncan can. Or looking at throwing errors, Juan Pierre did not have any errors last year, but was less inclined to throw the ball because of his arm strength than Jim Edmonds.

 

2. About Barrett calling a poor game. I thought that a good number of pitches are called in the dugout. So even if a catcher is a good game caller like Mike Matheny or Sandy Martinez :lol:, isnt pitch selection dictated by the coaching staff for the most part, not to mention the pitcher himself.

 

3. If we are to say, subjectively, that the cubs are a poor defensive club. Can we not automatically upgrade them because of personnel changes this season? ss-izturis over cedeno, 2b-derosa over walker, 1b- Lee healthy(knock on wood).

[dew1679666265]

I wanted to chime in here because im not as well versed in statistical analysis as many here are, but I also haven't watched nearly enough games (besides cubs and tigers) to allow me to give a subjective opinion on who is "bad or good" in comparison. Here are a couple of questions and points that I would appreciate feedback on, and maybe that can be tied in to the discussion. (btw: this is a very good thread regardless of the title).

 

1. I thought/heard/read that errors(being used by both the subjective and analytical crowd here) is a fundamentally flawed statistic like saves because a) errors are always going to be skewed toward the athletic outfielder. The comparison between Cedeno and David Eckstein would be a good example because cedeno can get to many more balls hit then Eckstein. Same can be said for the comparison between Chris Duncan and Jock. Duncan cannot get to the same amount of balls that Duncan can. Or looking at throwing errors, Juan Pierre did not have any errors last year, but was less inclined to throw the ball because of his arm strength than Jim Edmonds.

 

2. About Barrett calling a poor game. I thought that a good number of pitches are called in the dugout. So even if a catcher is a good game caller like Mike Matheny or Sandy Martinez :lol:, isnt pitch selection dictated by the coaching staff for the most part, not to mention the pitcher himself.

 

3. If we are to say, subjectively, that the cubs are a poor defensive club. Can we not automatically upgrade them because of personnel changes this season? ss-izturis over cedeno, 2b-derosa over walker, 1b- Lee healthy(knock on wood).

 

I would tend to agree with this. I'm of the mind that our defense wasn't that great last year, but with the addition of Izturis over Cedeno, a healthy Lee and improving Aramis, it appears the D would be better.

I'm not sure though how much improvement DeRosa is over Theriot (who played most of the year that Neifi wasn't, and Walker played few games at 2nd) or Soriano is over Pierre, so the level of improvement is iffy.

[BigbadB]

I think the team was respectable on defense last year. What I felt they were not good at was fundamentals. A lapse in fundamentals is also an error, but they don't always get recorded as such.

 

If someone isn't backing up a play, the guy who is out of position will usually not be charged for an error since he was nowhere in sight. But, fundamentally, he helped create that error. Missing the cut off man, throwing to the wrong base, lollypopping a throw that allows a runner to "steal" a base, being out of position on defense, crashing into each other on a fly ball are all "fundamental" lapses.

 

I have no idea how you would measure "fundamental" lapses, except to actually see the games and count how many times something that shouldn't happen happens. Actual errors are tied into fundamentals, and while more measureable, errors definitely do not tell the entire story.

[Chocolate Milk]

To TT: In 2006 I broke my leg falling off a step ladder cleaning gutters. I didn't have anything to do BUT watch baseball. As for a number? Jeez. At least 150-155 Cubs games. At least 100 Mariners games. About 100 Dodgers games. Scattered numbers for the rest, with only a few teams receiving no interest (Atlanta, KC, all the NLC teams). Trust me buddy, my g/f will unfortunately vouch for me on this. :D

 

To Tim: I have edit OCD. Sorry.

About Barrett: Since the second he became a Cub, he's been a terrible game caller. Again, this is just my opinion so if you ask for some sort of numerical proof you're out of luck. The guy's a converted third basemen, came from a decrepit organization, served his first years with the Cubs under a brain-dead manager and an arguably brain dead pitching coach....you can't fault the guy. But @#($)@# I counted a million fastballs on 0-2 counts.

 

Agreed.

 

Disagree.

[SouthSideRyan]

To TT: In 2006 I broke my leg falling off a step ladder cleaning gutters. I didn't have anything to do BUT watch baseball. As for a number? Jeez. At least 150-155 Cubs games. At least 100 Mariners games. About 100 Dodgers games. Scattered numbers for the rest, with only a few teams receiving no interest (Atlanta, KC, all the NLC teams). Trust me buddy, my g/f will unfortunately vouch for me on this. :D

 

To Tim: I have edit OCD. Sorry.

About Barrett: Since the second he became a Cub, he's been a terrible game caller. Again, this is just my opinion so if you ask for some sort of numerical proof you're out of luck. The guy's a converted third basemen, came from a decrepit organization, served his first years with the Cubs under a brain-dead manager and an arguably brain dead pitching coach....you can't fault the guy. But @#($)@# I counted a million fastballs on 0-2 counts.

 

Agreed.

 

Disagree.

 

Circle gets the square.