Soriano's place in the batting order

[Abe Frohman]

It is without question that Alfonso Soriano is going to be hitting leadoff for the Cubs in 2007, evident by the comments by GM Jim Hendry and Manager Lou Piniella.

 

You can't help but wonder if the lineup would be better served with Soriano, one of the games best combinations of speed and power, hitting in the middle of the order. As it stands today, the Cubs are lacking a true #5 hitter - just like before the 2006 season.

 

Just for the sake of discussion, explain why Soriano belongs at the top of the order - or why he belongs in the middle.

 

I would be interested to see Soriano hitting 5th. I think it is rather odd that he walked 67 times in 2006 (51 + 16 intentional), and wonder if he actually became a bit more selective at the plate. His career high 160 K's wouldn't suggest that, but it is an interesting statistic. The Cubs actually have options for 2007 in the leadoff spot - and Ryan Theriot could very well get some significant time at SS and 2B. He has shown that he has plate discipline, good baserunning skills, little power, and a knack for getting on base. The Cubs could use him at the top 2 in the order. I think this lineup looks a lot more balanced:

 

2B/SS Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

RF Soriano

CF Jones

CA Barrett

SS/2B Izturis/DeRosa

[CuseCubFan69]

I'd like to see Theriot play SS and Derosa at 2nd. I'd also switch them in the order and have DeRosa lead off until/unless Theriot proves otherwise.

[Backtobanks]

It is without question that Alfonso Soriano is going to be hitting leadoff for the Cubs in 2007, evident by the comments by GM Jim Hendry and Manager Lou Piniella.

 

You can't help but wonder if the lineup would be better served with Soriano, one of the games best combinations of speed and power, hitting in the middle of the order. As it stands today, the Cubs are lacking a true #5 hitter - just like before the 2006 season.

 

Just for the sake of discussion, explain why Soriano belongs at the top of the order - or why he belongs in the middle.

 

I would be interested to see Soriano hitting 5th. I think it is rather odd that he walked 67 times in 2006 (51 + 16 intentional), and wonder if he actually became a bit more selective at the plate. His career high 160 K's wouldn't suggest that, but it is an interesting statistic. The Cubs actually have options for 2007 in the leadoff spot - and Ryan Theriot could very well get some significant time at SS and 2B. He has shown that he has plate discipline, good baserunning skills, little power, and a knack for getting on base. The Cubs could use him at the top 2 in the order. I think this lineup looks a lot more balanced:

 

2B/SS Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

RF Soriano

CF Jones

CA Barrett

SS/2B Izturis/DeRosa

 

Soriano would serve the lineup better in the middle (#5), but he feels more comfortable in the leadoff position. After spending $136 million on him, I'm sure they will cater to his wishes.

[tkenm356]

Just for the sake of discussion, explain why Soriano belongs at the top of the order - or why he belongs in the middle.

 

Soriano belongs at the top and not the middle... why?

 

Career situational stats in lead-off, 3rd, and 4th position, the 3 spots where he's hit the most in his career:

 

Lead-Off (2052AB)

.291/.340/.544/.884

 

3rd (602AB)

.264/.313/.460/.773

 

5th (575AB)

.271/.316/.520/.836

 

Now you can say that his stats are stacked in the lead-off spot because he's had more opportunity for success, but he's also had more opportunity for failure, too. He primarily bat 3rd and 5th when he was in Texas, and he went from great in the lead-off for the Yankees to nothing spectacular for the Rangers in the 3/5 holes. And that was while he was hitting in the middle of a lineup that had Young, Teixiera, and Blalock. As soon as he went back to hitting lead-off after he was traded to the Nationals, he flourished, which coincidentally happened to be in the middle of his prime, which may or may not be a reason for the sudden boost in stats, especially wqhile hitting at RFK, predominantly a pitchers park, and also in a Nationals lineup that had no Mark Teixieras or Michael Youngs. If he bats lead-off in front of, what will appear to be, DeRosa, Lee, Ramirez, Jones, while he's hitting in Wrigley, I think he's going to actually end up producing like a $18MM man.

 

Besides, the 5-6-7 sports should be reserved for Barrett-Murton-Jones.

 

Barrett career 5-spot #'s (213AB):

.305/.370/.540/.910

- Barrett actually has the best career numbers out of the 3 spot but that's Lee's position, unless you want to have a Barrett-Lee-Ramirez 3-4-5, which isn't likely)

 

Murton career 6-spot #'s (136AB):

.375/.437/.551/.989

 

Jones career 7-spot #'s (422AB):

.301/.353/.479/.832

 

The lineup with who I think will be starting and how I think it should be if thats the case

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Ramirez

Barrett

Murton

Jones

Izturis

 

That's how I feel about it anyways. Soriano at lead-off, I'm a strong advocate for it

[Abe Frohman]

That's pretty good stuff.

[rawaction]

I'd like Soriano to hit 2nd. There is a precedent for players of this caliber hitting #2. Sandberg hit 2 for the Cubs for most of his career, and was at least the 2nd best offensive player on all his teams. The Piniella Mariners hit Griffey #2 coming up and then did the same with Arod, with Griffey moving to 3rd.

 

I'd love to have DeRosa able to leadoff (if he hits like he did last year, he can be a good leadoff guy).

 

Derosa

Soriano

Lee

Ramirez

Murton/Barrett/Jones (really no preference on the order)

Izturis

[frostwyrm]

2nd or 5th would be acceptable. I don't want a $136M power hitter batting behind Izzy and a pitcher. An overabundance of solo homers always bugs me.

[BigbadB]

Looking at Soriano's career stats, he is clearly ideal to be a #5 or #6 hitter in any line up. The low OBP is better suited in front of the worst hitters on the roster (bottom of the line up). The good SLG and AVG will drive in the better OBP/SLG guys a lot.

 

With that said, I don't have an issue with him batting 1st. I'm so sick of watching guys like Pierre, Corey and Neifi hit lead off, all guys who don't get on base as often as Soriano does. In an ideal world, two fairly speedy, fundamentally sound, high OBP guys would bat first. Guys like Kenny Lofton and Hanley Ramirez would have Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez feeling quite heavenly.

 

Because Soriano is batting first, it will be important to put one of Murton, Theriot or DeRosa (if he's duplicating last year) in the 2 hole to make up a bit for Soriano's only real weakness offensively.

 

As far as why Soriano walked more last year, I think it has a lot to do with the fact Soriano is or was the best hitter on the Nats team. He was the biggest threat to the opposing pitcher and team, therefore he was pitched around to limit the damage he could do.

 

I wish Soriano would show a dramatic increase in walk rate. But, I doubt it will happen. He knows he's paid to hit rather than walk. It's a shame he wasn't more selective, because if he was, he'd be a complete hitter and a yearly candidate for MVP. It's a bit late in his career to do a complete turnaround and become a patient hitter. And that's not what they are paying him to do. They are paying for the results he's put up to this point, and getting on base was never his strong point (outside of 2006).

 

The top of the line up is important in many ways. Not only is it very important for the top of the order hitters to find a way to get on base for the best power hitters on the team, but these guys also get the most at bats in a game. They come to the plate before some of your all star hitters. They are essential to the success of an offense. Cesar Izturis is not a guy who fits the profile of who should hit first or second. Out machines belong at the bottom of the order. They should also be pinch hit for nearly as much as the pitcher. Extending innings is how runs score in bunches. Therefore, the guys who are good at making outs need to be placed in a spot near the bottom of the line up (if they are forced to play at all) where they can do the least damage. Period.

 

Since I've gotten way, way off track......

 

Soriano batting 5th only increases the likelihood that someone like Izturis will bat near the top of the order. Theriot probably won't play unless Izturis or DeRosa is injured or needs a day off. Because Soriano is batting lead off, Piniella may feel that DeRosa is better in the 5th or 6th spot to drive in runs (using the stats he put up last year as his predictor), Murton has rarely ever been given much attention at the top of the order and Izturis has been known to hit 1st or 2nd when he was with the Dodgers and fits the profile of the old school line of thought that your lead off hitter needs to be speedy, can hit to certain parts of the field to advance runners, etc... The old school way of thinking is a fossil at this point. It's about scoring runs and protecting leads. With that said, here is the best line up Piniella can throw out there with the roster he currently has to work with:

 

Soriano

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

DeRosa

Theriot

 

If this line up played 130 games just like this, I would go out on a limb and say this line up could put up well over 800 runs in a season. That's not likely to happen, and this line up probably won't play 10 games together, let alone 130.

 

What I envision will happen is this:

 

Soriano

Izturis

Lee

Ramirez

Jones

Barrett

DeRosa

Pagan

 

Jones will play in place of Murton and Pagan (if they don't find someone else for CF) will get more at bats than Murton. Predictable and very ordinary.

Edited December 27, 2006 by BigbadB

[Soul]

I want the better OBP numbers that come with Soriano hitting leadoff.

 

I don't believe we have another good leadoff option. Nobody knows if Ryan Theriot is even a solid everyday major leaguer, much less a leadoff hitter.

[frostwyrm]

As far as why Soriano walked more last year, I think it has a lot to do with the fact Soriano is or was the best hitter on the Nats team. He was the biggest threat to the opposing pitcher and team, therefore he was pitched around to limit the damage he could do.

 

It's crystal clear to me that Soriano was pitched around in 2006. Aside from Fons the Nats lineup sucked big time.

 

Soriano 2006 splits:

 

Runners on: 212 AB, 42 BB, .274/.396/.566

Bases Empty: 435 AB, 25 BB, .278./.326/.556

 

 

Fons' walk rate was enormously higher with runners on. Coincidence? I think not.

[frostwyrm]

I want the better OBP numbers that come with Soriano hitting leadoff.

 

 

I'm not sure Fons will derive a big OBP advantage from batting leadoff with the Cubs. He'll have DLee and Aram batting behind him, as opposed to the lameass Nats hitters from 2006. Pitchers will have good reason to challenge him a lot more in 2007, which hopefully will lead to more HRs, but IMO it will almost certainly lead to a significant reduction in walks.

[goonys evil twin]

I want the better OBP numbers that come with Soriano hitting leadoff.

 

 

I'm not sure Fons will derive a big OBP advantage from batting leadoff with the Cubs. He'll have DLee and Aram batting behind him, as opposed to the lameass Nats hitters from 2006. Pitchers will have good reason to challenge him a lot more in 2007, which hopefully will lead to more HRs, but IMO it will almost certainly lead to a significant reduction in walks.

 

The key to getting Soriano out has always been outside the strike zone. I'm not sure challenging him is really that good of an idea for pitchers.

[Soul]

I want the better OBP numbers that come with Soriano hitting leadoff.

 

 

I'm not sure Fons will derive a big OBP advantage from batting leadoff with the Cubs. He'll have DLee and Aram batting behind him, as opposed to the lameass Nats hitters from 2006. Pitchers will have good reason to challenge him a lot more in 2007, which hopefully will lead to more HRs, but IMO it will almost certainly lead to a significant reduction in walks.

 

The key to getting Soriano out has always been outside the strike zone. I'm not sure challenging him is really that good of an idea for pitchers.

 

Plus, I don't think having Izzy hitting behind Soriano is going to be much of an improvment over those "lameass" Nats hitters.

 

Walk AS.

Get obligatory GB from Izzy.

Hope you can get out Lee, or Aram, or both if obligatory GB was not a DP.

 

This sounds like a viable strategy, and not appreciably better for the Cubs than other teams. I would imagine most other clubs will have a decent OBP guy in the 2-hole. So I'm thinking Soriano will be on base plenty with the Cubs. The only catch is whether Lee & ARam can drive him home.

 

Lee + ARam, much as I like them, is not the end-all-be-all of power hitting duos. Opposing clubs will not be weeping and gnashing their teeth, of that much I am certain.

[frostwyrm]

I want the better OBP numbers that come with Soriano hitting leadoff.

 

 

I'm not sure Fons will derive a big OBP advantage from batting leadoff with the Cubs. He'll have DLee and Aram batting behind him, as opposed to the lameass Nats hitters from 2006. Pitchers will have good reason to challenge him a lot more in 2007, which hopefully will lead to more HRs, but IMO it will almost certainly lead to a significant reduction in walks.

 

The key to getting Soriano out has always been outside the strike zone. I'm not sure challenging him is really that good of an idea for pitchers.

 

Personally I would challenge Fons, which does risk the solo HR, but also seems to reduce his OBP quite a bit, which would be a very good thing with DLee and Aram due up. Solo HRs are lame anyway. They don't scare me unless you're giving up a bunch of them.

[goonys evil twin]

So I'm thinking Soriano will be on base plenty with the Cubs.

 

Well, I doubt he'll be on base "plenty", that, to me, would suggest a really good OBP. Soriano is never going to have a really good OBP, he could be above average and a little more than adequate. But getting on base will never be a strong point of his game.

[TB_11]

Showing any splits about his performance at various spots in the batting order glosses over the big picture: Soriano is a low OBP, high SLG hitter. Placing him at the top of the order means less opportunities for Derrek and Ramirez, and for Soriano, to drive in runs.

[CuseCubFan69]

So basically what kind of OBP would Soriano need to put up to be an effective leadoff hitter?

[goonys evil twin]

Showing any splits about his performance at various spots in the batting order glosses over the big picture: Soriano is a low OBP, high SLG hitter. Placing him at the top of the order means less opportunities for Derrek and Ramirez, and for Soriano, to drive in runs.

 

That is only true if the other options were higher OBP guys. Murton is, but you could just as easily insert him in the 2 hole. DeRosa might be, but he

 

The key to not screwing over Lee and Ramirez will be finding decent OBP out of the 2 spot next year.

[RynoRules]

So basically what kind of OBP would Soriano need to put up to be an effective leadoff hitter?

 

.360? I mean realistically that's probably as much as we can expect, right? If you hit Murt or DeRosa behind him (Murt, please), then you could be setting up Lee, ARam, Jacque, etc. pretty nicely.

[BigbadB]

So basically what kind of OBP would Soriano need to put up to be an effective leadoff hitter?

 

If he put up the same OBP as last year, that would be pretty ideal. But, what's the likelihood? In his years with the Yankees and Rangers, he had premier offenses hitting around him, therefore it didn't make much sense to pitch around a guy to get to another guy who hits just as good or better.

 

If Soriano/Izturis are hitting 1/2, it won't matter how good of an OBP Soriano puts up, it won't be good enough. If Soriano/Murton are batting 1/2, then what Soriano gives up in OBP can potentially be made up by Murton if he can get something between .380-.400.

 

If Theriot can really hit like he did last year, the better line up would probably be:

 

Theriot

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Jones

Barrett

DeRosa

 

But, that's not going to happen for many reasons. I can live with Soriano in the lead off spot. But, his OBP will likely not be what any of us would hope out of a lead off hitter. At least when he does get a hit, he has the chance of extra bases or moving up via stolen base. At least he's a "good" player that will get more chances to hit than anyone else on the team.

[rawaction]

For the record, the Nats got a .362 OBP out of the #2 spot last year. Felipe Lopez and Vidro hit got most of the ABs there and put up .363 and .410 OBPs respectively.

 

They didn't get great production out of the #3 hole until they put Zimmerman there, but they had pretty good production out of Nick Johnson at cleanup.

 

So, it's not like the guys who hit around Soriano were horrible.

[rawaction]

Also, .370 is a great OBP from the leadoff guy. .360 is ideal. .350 is respectable. .340 is the lowest a leadoff guy should be before he isn't an asset at that spot. For Soriano, I'm hoping for .360, expecting .340.

[Soul]

Also, .370 is a great OBP from the leadoff guy. .360 is ideal. .350 is respectable. .340 is the lowest a leadoff guy should be before he isn't an asset at that spot. For Soriano, I'm hoping for .360, expecting .340.

 

.340 consistently over the course of the season is, I believe, a great improvement over Pierre. Even though it's only 10 points higher than Juan, he was so terrible in the early/mid season it contributed to burying us in the standings. By August it didn't matter if he was getting on base at a good clip---it was all over by then.

 

But we'll see. The thing is, I don't see how Theriot can be counted on for anything. Nobody has seen how he might adjust when teams start figuring out his weaknesses. I'm rooting for the kid, but he only has somewhere around 140 ABs. That's not enough to pin any hopes on or make any plans, IMO.

[cubfever7]

2B/SS Theriot

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

RF Soriano

CF Jones

CA Barrett

SS/2B Izturis/DeRosa

 

I like your lineup. We can only hope that a better CF option emerges, but in my book, you have the lineup set as I would. The problems are that we have to assume DeRosa will get a more prominent role than platooning with Izturis.

 

Lou has been heard to say that Alf likes to leadoff--the guy strikes ou a ton, so i figure we want him to see more fastballs. It's an interesting argument as to whether that happens in front of or after Lee and Ramirez.

 

But Murton and Theriot at the top look to be the best way to have opportunities for the boppers.

 

Pie is REALLY struggling in winter ball--I've seen him play in person a number of times and he was nowhere close to ready last summer, but that can change quickly. It looks like it hasn't though.

[craig]

Career situational stats in lead-off...:

 

Lead-Off (2052AB)

.291/.340/.544/.884

 

==========

 

I don't have the 2006 numbers, but over the previous 5 years the NL OBP average was in the .328 range. .340 is not a low OBP.

 

It's my view that leadoff should be especially good at OBP, obvious table-setting spot. I forgot how to retrieve the leadoff OBP average, but I know for sure that NL-average leadoff OBP is considerably lower than .340. A good way to not make outs is to hit a HR. But many teams put fast, low-HR guys at leadoff, while putting their best hitters (for OBP as well as for power) in the 3-5 spots.

 

So, if Soriano plays at his career .340 OBP with .884 OPS at leadoff, he will be way above leadoff-norm for OPS, and somewhat above leadoff normal for OBP. Obviously OBP would not be his signature virtue; but he'd be better than league normal. (Personally, I'd put Theriot's over/under for OBP at .340 also.)

 

Soriano had a good last year, and took some more walks. It's possible that he's recognizes some value in doing that, and may do a little better for walks and OBP than his career norm, too. If he was to end up putting up years of .355-.360 OBP at leadoff, that would be a strong asset relative to league normal for leadoff.

 

I think there are some advantages in having Soriano lead off. I know there are multiple reasons why he'd seem better suited elsewhere, and other have (or will) make those points. But there are some positives about using Soriano #1:

1) A lot of guys with plate discipline problems recognize that at leadoff they need to try to get on base, and that a walk has virtue. A 3rd or 5th, the same guy might view his job as hitting for power, and might abandon any efforts at plate discipline. Whatever his OBP ends up being, it may be higher leading off than at any other spot.

2) HR's, even solo HR's, are an efficient way to score runs. Having a large excess of power relative to league-normal leadoff is a plus.

3) Teams look for some power at #3-6 spots. If Sori bats leadoff, you can get somebody else with some power batting 5th. Sori + #5 hitter will likely combine for more HR's than if you used Sori + #1 hitter, in years ahead, since in the latter case they might well content themselves with a no-power leadoff guy in the Pierre/Theriot mold.

4) There is a chance that Felix Pie will become a Cub and become an important component of the team over a number of years. The Cubs always want to have a leadoff man. If soriano isn't it, then there would be a natural tendency to want to have Pie fit that responsibility, one which he seems ill-suited to fit. With Alf leading off, then if/when Pie does arrive, you can bat him 2nd or 8th or 7th or 6th or whatever, for years if necessary, without having a constant struggle of needing him to bat leadoff, but then being dissatisfied when he's sometimes a dysfunctional leadoff hitter.

5) Soriano will hopefully be an offensive asset. He'll get more PA leading off than batting 5th.

6) I like to play with the lead. If Soriano leads off with a HR, that's a nice way to start a game. And, if he leads off with a double, there is less likelihood that some bunting manager, whether his name be Baylor or Baker or Piniella or the next manager(s) after Lou will bunt with Alf on 2nd than if you have some Murton or Theriot-type dude on 1st base.

 

I know this is mostly a Murton board, and there is much reason to think he'd be very nice batting high in order. But I think the Cubs will likely use Murton as a middle-of-the-order guy, and bat him 5th. He's a good hitter with guys on base, a good situational hitter. He's got some power. And I think OBP is quite helpful at #5, since there will often be guys on base already and when he gets on as well, whether by hit or walk, it's conducive to big innings. It's also my hope down the road that if Pie does eventually develop into an effective offensive player, having Murton getting on base at #5 in front of Barrett and Pie will not exactly waste Murton's on-base situations.