Optimistic perspective on cubs off season to date.

[Knyption]

Okie so we got rid of some very big problems from last year including

 

Cedeno

Perez

Too many young pitchers

Weak Bench.

 

Adding

 

Soriano

Ward

Lilly

Marquis

Floyd (possible)

Cotts

 

Outfield-

 

Soriano

Floyd

Jones

Murton

Pie/other (?)

 

This is a good group of guys any which way you cut it, you have bench options, pinch hitting options, platoon options, and all around a better set of guys than '06. Despite no true center fielder the production of the outfield will surely increase in '07

 

Infield

 

Lee

Derosa

Iz

Aram

Ward

Theroit

Barrett

Blano

other

 

While there were no major changes at De Rosa is better than walker / perez combination by far. De Rosa has a better glove than Walker did and a better bat than perez did. So im looking at De rosa as bieng the middle point between both. That along with a full year of D Lee, our infield production barring injury has to increase as well.

 

Starter

Zambrano

Lilly

Marquis

Hill

Prior/Miller/all the other guys

 

One thing this does is give the rotation a little bit more experience as well as provide some guys who may not be the best pitchers but they can keep you in a game long enough for the offense to have a shot to do their thing and also with the innings eaters you save the bullpen some fatigue for the stretch.

 

Pen

 

Wood

Dempster

Eyre

cotts

Howry

loogie

 

this pen with a healthy wood will compete for top 5 in NL if not MLB barring injuries. People don't count on wood anymore but if it pans out we will have our killer killer closer that we haven't had for years and some very reliable set up men

 

Overall, the team has improved hands down no matter how its looked at.. money set aside.... in a weak central is it enough to compete for the pennett? darn right it is.

[Soul]

Biggest issue has been the lack of OBP in the acquisitions.

 

Here's hoping D Lee brings his high OBP to Wrigley for the full 81 games, thus lifting us off the bottom of the league in OBP and Walks.

 

I still think some other team will jump up, keeping us from making the playoffs. Yes, the NL is weak, but there were still so many others ahead of us, and they're all trying to get better too.

[Blizzau]

We got rid of Cedeno??? I must have missed something!

[biittner77]

We got rid of Cedeno??? I must have missed something!

 

Replacing cedeno with Izturis is at best a lateral move.

[Rob]

While there were no major changes at De Rosa is better than walker / perez combination by far. De Rosa has a better glove than Walker did and a better bat than perez did. So im looking at De rosa as bieng the middle point between both. That along with a full year of D Lee, our infield production barring injury has to increase as well.

 

To make such a proclamation is a bit premature, I would think.

 

I would agree with you that DeRosa is better with the glove than Walker, and better with the bat than Neifi. But to state that this makes him "better by far" than those two is a logical fallacy. If I were to state to you that DeRosa were considerably worse with the bat than Walker, and considerably worse with the glove than Neifi, would that be enough to say he'd be "worse by far?"

 

For my money, I would have rather retained Walker over DeRosa any day of the week... though I will do my best to give DeRosa a chance to prove last year wasn't so far above his head as I believe it to be.

[CubColtPacer]

We got rid of Cedeno??? I must have missed something!

 

Replacing cedeno with Izturis is at best a lateral move.

 

I would say at worst it's a lateral move-there will likely be a small upgrade offensively (probably around 30-40 points of OPS, with 25-30 points of that coming from OBP) and a decent upgrade defensively. The contract is a different story, but Izturis's 2007 is probably going to be a lateral move at its worst from Cedeno's 2006 campaign.

[Rob]

We got rid of Cedeno??? I must have missed something!

 

Replacing cedeno with Izturis is at best a lateral move.

 

I would say at worst it's a lateral move-there will likely be a small upgrade offensively (probably around 30-40 points of OPS, with 25-30 points of that coming from OBP) and a decent upgrade defensively. The contract is a different story, but Izturis's 2007 is probably going to be a lateral move at its worst from Cedeno's 2006 campaign.

 

It may be an upgrade over what we got from Cedeno last year, but I hardly imagine Izturis will provide four million dollars worth of upgrades over what Cedeno is capable of this coming year.

[CubColtPacer]

While there were no major changes at De Rosa is better than walker / perez combination by far. De Rosa has a better glove than Walker did and a better bat than perez did. So im looking at De rosa as bieng the middle point between both. That along with a full year of D Lee, our infield production barring injury has to increase as well.

 

To make such a proclamation is a bit premature, I would think.

 

I would agree with you that DeRosa is better with the glove than Walker, and better with the bat than Neifi. But to state that this makes him "better by far" than those two is a logical fallacy. If I were to state to you that DeRosa were considerably worse with the bat than Walker, and considerably worse with the glove than Neifi, would that be enough to say he'd be "worse by far?"

 

For my money, I would have rather retained Walker over DeRosa any day of the week... though I will do my best to give DeRosa a chance to prove last year wasn't so far above his head as I believe it to be.

 

I would agree with that-DeRosa is a little bit of Neifi mixed with a little bit of Walker. If he hits even somewhat close to last year (anything over a 750 OPS) he'll be an upgrade at the position. He goes between a 700-750, and with his defense he'll probably be about the same as Walker/Neifi. Under a 700, and he becomes a definite downgrade at the position.

[CubColtPacer]

We got rid of Cedeno??? I must have missed something!

 

Replacing cedeno with Izturis is at best a lateral move.

 

I would say at worst it's a lateral move-there will likely be a small upgrade offensively (probably around 30-40 points of OPS, with 25-30 points of that coming from OBP) and a decent upgrade defensively. The contract is a different story, but Izturis's 2007 is probably going to be a lateral move at its worst from Cedeno's 2006 campaign.

 

It may be an upgrade over what we got from Cedeno last year, but I hardly imagine Izturis will provide four million dollars worth of upgrades over what Cedeno is capable of this coming year.

 

I would agree with that-I just said that because these posts in these threads are talking about just the upgrades on the field, not really the contracts. Was the upgrade to Cedeno to Izturis worth the money that Izturis commands? No-most likely not. Is SS going to be better this year than it was last year? Almost certainly yes.

[craig]

..De Rosa is better than walker / perez combination by far. De Rosa has a better glove than Walker did and a better bat than perez did. ....

 

To make such a proclamation is a bit premature, I would think....If I were to state to you that DeRosa were considerably worse with the bat than Walker, and considerably worse with the glove than Neifi, would that be enough to say he'd be "worse by far?"....

 

Rob, Walker posted a .742 OPS for the Cubs in his 318 Cub AB last year. I'm not crazy, I don't expect DeRosa will match the .800+ OPS he had last year, or the .860+ OPS he carried in August (or so I read somewhere).

 

But I think it's being excessively negative to project that DeRosa this year is likely to do "considerably worse" than Walker's .742 from last year.

 

I think .742 is a fair over-under for DeRosa's offense. My guess is that if he deviates substantially from that, it's more likely to be on high side rather than the low side. .742 would be nothing to get excited about. But relative to the composite 2B output we got last year pre-Theriot, between Walker/Hairston/Neifi/Cedeno, I'd think elevating from terrible to .742-mediocre would represent a substantial upgrade.

 

Likewise at SS. Cedeno was .610-OPS last year, with .271 OBP. I'm not an Izturis backer, and I'm not suggesting he's the guy we should have at SS or that his contract is a good value or anything like that. But to be objective, it's hard to project that Izturis is going to OPS below .610, or OBP below .271. Izturis has been horrific in each of the last two years; but in neither was he worse than .610, or or below .295 OBP.

 

again, I'm not arguing that DeRosa or Izturis are good choices.

 

Just that it's going to be almost impossible, even for guys of such low caliber as DeRosa and Izturis, to be as nonproductive as our SS/2B positions were last year.

 

The 2007 Cubs are almost certain to get somewhat better OFFENSE from 2B and SS than was produced in 2006.

 

Ditto at 1B. 3B, hopefully as much or more (Aram had his lowest OPS in 3 seasons...). Hopefully as much or more in left. (Murton had some tough times early, so much so that Hairston was taking some LF AB when Murton was slumping so badly vs RHP). The Cubs had a composite .782 OPS in left. Either Murton alone or Murton in combo with Floyd or Jones is likely to at least equal and very probably exceed what we got from left last year. Center could be a supremely pathetic blach hole, if it's Pie and Pagan. But, Pierre was .718 OPS last year. Pie could be awful, but really, .718 is such a low reference point that it won't be easy to lose all that much ground there. Right, Jones was .833, Soriano career is .835. We should at least match, and if Soriano is going to deviate from his career, I'd think he's more likely to go over than under.

 

So, it seems to me that at 6 of the 8 positions, we're likely to at least match and perhaps exceed the 2006 OPS. At 1st by a bundle. Hopefully by strong amounts in right, at 2nd, in left, and at SS. Center, who knows, maybe once it all shakes out Jones will still be standing in right (in which case, expect some dip), but Soriano being a monster jump over Pie in cneter.

 

Catcher, both Barrett and Blanco are unlikely to match their 2006, so I expect a drop there.

 

Still, I look for an improved offense in 2007. Improved enough? Maybe not. But improved at a lot of positions.

[Knyption]

exactly my point...

 

2006 was a terrible season.

 

that said injuries played a large toll on the performance of the team..

 

a healthy team as it looks now is good for contention in a weak NL central

[Soul]

We got rid of Cedeno??? I must have missed something!

 

Replacing cedeno with Izturis is at best a lateral move.

 

I would say at worst it's a lateral move-there will likely be a small upgrade offensively (probably around 30-40 points of OPS, with 25-30 points of that coming from OBP) and a decent upgrade defensively. The contract is a different story, but Izturis's 2007 is probably going to be a lateral move at its worst from Cedeno's 2006 campaign.

 

It may be an upgrade over what we got from Cedeno last year, but I hardly imagine Izturis will provide four million dollars worth of upgrades over what Cedeno is capable of this coming year.

 

I would agree with that-I just said that because these posts in these threads are talking about just the upgrades on the field, not really the contracts. Was the upgrade to Cedeno to Izturis worth the money that Izturis commands? No-most likely not. Is SS going to be better this year than it was last year? Almost certainly yes.

 

Cedeno was atrocious at times in the field. Izzy will most certainly be a significant fielding upgrade.

 

As for hitting, I just don't think Cedeno was ever going to be good. Izzy's not either, but he's marginally better than Cedeno.

 

It's more than a lateral upgrade, but the "upgrade" part is mostly defensive. The offense coming from that position will still likely be terrible.

[biittner77]

Cedeno was atrocious at times in the field. Izzy will most certainly be a significant fielding upgrade.

 

As for hitting, I just don't think Cedeno was ever going to be good. Izzy's not either, but he's marginally better than Cedeno.

 

It's more than a lateral upgrade, but the "upgrade" part is mostly defensive. The offense coming from that position will still likely be terrible.

 

I guess the difference is that we know that Izturis will be horrible offensively and good defensively. Cedeno at least has the chance to improve, particularly under a new coaching staff.

 

Izturis might be inserted into the #2 spot- with very likely bad results. Cedeno, if he were to start, would be relegated to the 8th spot.

[Soul]

Cedeno was atrocious at times in the field. Izzy will most certainly be a significant fielding upgrade.

 

As for hitting, I just don't think Cedeno was ever going to be good. Izzy's not either, but he's marginally better than Cedeno.

 

It's more than a lateral upgrade, but the "upgrade" part is mostly defensive. The offense coming from that position will still likely be terrible.

 

I guess the difference is that we know that Izturis will be horrible offensively and good defensively. Cedeno at least has the chance to improve, particularly under a new coaching staff.

 

Izturis might be inserted into the #2 spot- with very likely bad results. Cedeno, if he were to start, would be relegated to the 8th spot.

 

I don't want Izzy to hit 2nd. Bad move.

 

As for Cedeno, I don't get what you see in him that would tell you he has a chance to improve. Other than the fact that he's young. If that's all it is, then maybe we should put our single-A SS in over Izzy because he has a chance to improve, too.

 

Cedeno's hitting was terrible nearly his entire minor league career, except for one season in Jaxx where he was marginal, and half-seasons in Iowa and the Cubs, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO.

[biittner77]

As for Cedeno, I don't get what you see in him that would tell you he has a chance to improve. Other than the fact that he's young. If that's all it is, then maybe we should put our single-A SS in over Izzy because he has a chance to improve, too.

 

The difference being that Cedeno has had some MLB experience and success.

 

Cedeno's hitting was terrible nearly his entire minor league career, except for one season in Jaxx where he was marginal, and half-seasons in Iowa and the Cubs, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO.

 

Izturis' hitting was terrible nearly his entire major league career, except for one half-season, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO

[dew1679666265]

While there were no major changes at De Rosa is better than walker / perez combination by far. De Rosa has a better glove than Walker did and a better bat than perez did. So im looking at De rosa as bieng the middle point between both. That along with a full year of D Lee, our infield production barring injury has to increase as well.

 

To make such a proclamation is a bit premature, I would think.

 

I would agree with you that DeRosa is better with the glove than Walker, and better with the bat than Neifi. But to state that this makes him "better by far" than those two is a logical fallacy. If I were to state to you that DeRosa were considerably worse with the bat than Walker, and considerably worse with the glove than Neifi, would that be enough to say he'd be "worse by far?"

 

For my money, I would have rather retained Walker over DeRosa any day of the week... though I will do my best to give DeRosa a chance to prove last year wasn't so far above his head as I believe it to be.

 

I would agree with that-DeRosa is a little bit of Neifi mixed with a little bit of Walker. If he hits even somewhat close to last year (anything over a 750 OPS) he'll be an upgrade at the position. He goes between a 700-750, and with his defense he'll probably be about the same as Walker/Neifi. Under a 700, and he becomes a definite downgrade at the position.

 

Something we all have to remember is that Walker barely played any 2B last year. He was there while DLee was healthy and then the rest of his time as a Cub he was primarily a first baseman. He played 46 games at second and 37 at first last season as a Cub.

So really, when looking at upgrading over last season, the more fair comparison would be DeRosa v Neifi/Hairston/whoever else we had play there. In that context most anything DeRosa gives us will be significantly better.

[dew1679666265]

As for Cedeno, I don't get what you see in him that would tell you he has a chance to improve. Other than the fact that he's young. If that's all it is, then maybe we should put our single-A SS in over Izzy because he has a chance to improve, too.

 

The difference being that Cedeno has had some MLB experience and success.

 

Cedeno's hitting was terrible nearly his entire minor league career, except for one season in Jaxx where he was marginal, and half-seasons in Iowa and the Cubs, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO.

 

Izturis' hitting was terrible nearly his entire major league career, except for one half-season, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO

 

You dislike the fact that Izturis has only had a good half season and then say Cedeno has a chance to improve because he was good for 41 games? If either has the better chance to improve it's Izturis who is closer to his peak than Cedeno.

Also, Izturis' good half year lasted 159 games where he posted a .330 OBP. Granted not great, but he was 24 at the time.

I just don't understand the opinion that there is no chance whatsoever that Izturis will even become a decent player. He's talked about like he's in his mid 30's and not mid 20's. And I'm not saying I think he will, just that because of his age there is the possibility.

[RammyFanny]

Biggest issue has been the lack of OBP in the acquisitions.

 

Here's hoping D Lee brings his high OBP to Wrigley for the full 81 games, thus lifting us off the bottom of the league in OBP and Walks.

 

I still think some other team will jump up, keeping us from making the playoffs. Yes, the NL is weak, but there were still so many others ahead of us, and they're all trying to get better too.

 

I know people will bring out their career OBP's, but we did just add a guy who put up a .357 OBP last year, .351 OBP, and a .380 OBP (though in limited games). And this isn't counting in another aquisition in Ramirez who will give you a .350 plus OBP, and Lee who we didn't have for basically the entire year who will be good for .360 plus (conservative). Add in Barrett who's good for .350-.370. Murton who's good for .350-.370.

 

I'm not thinking OBP will be as big of a problem as it was in previous years.

[Pickle]

As for Cedeno, I don't get what you see in him that would tell you he has a chance to improve. Other than the fact that he's young. If that's all it is, then maybe we should put our single-A SS in over Izzy because he has a chance to improve, too.

 

The difference being that Cedeno has had some MLB experience and success.

 

Cedeno's hitting was terrible nearly his entire minor league career, except for one season in Jaxx where he was marginal, and half-seasons in Iowa and the Cubs, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO.

 

Izturis' hitting was terrible nearly his entire major league career, except for one half-season, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO

 

You dislike the fact that Izturis has only had a good half season and then say Cedeno has a chance to improve because he was good for 41 games? If either has the better chance to improve it's Izturis who is closer to his peak than Cedeno.

Also, Izturis' good half year lasted 159 games where he posted a .330 OBP. Granted not great, but he was 24 at the time.

I just don't understand the opinion that there is no chance whatsoever that Izturis will even become a decent player. He's talked about like he's in his mid 30's and not mid 20's. And I'm not saying I think he will, just that because of his age there is the possibility.

 

It seems like certain posters don't like Izturis and are very vocal about it. Others just like jumping in with them. Not everyone here thinks Izturis is going to be pitiful. God help Izturis if he gets off to a slow start. But, even if he starts off hot, then the ones that don't like him are going to be talking about how it's a fluke and he'll start sucking eventually and the cubs should trade him while he's got good value. It's really a no-win situation for some players.

[dew1679666265]

As for Cedeno, I don't get what you see in him that would tell you he has a chance to improve. Other than the fact that he's young. If that's all it is, then maybe we should put our single-A SS in over Izzy because he has a chance to improve, too.

 

The difference being that Cedeno has had some MLB experience and success.

 

Cedeno's hitting was terrible nearly his entire minor league career, except for one season in Jaxx where he was marginal, and half-seasons in Iowa and the Cubs, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO.

 

Izturis' hitting was terrible nearly his entire major league career, except for one half-season, where pitchers never saw enough of him to expose his crippling weaknesses at the plate. Once they did, he tanked as always has. He has little if any chance to improve, IMO

 

You dislike the fact that Izturis has only had a good half season and then say Cedeno has a chance to improve because he was good for 41 games? If either has the better chance to improve it's Izturis who is closer to his peak than Cedeno.

Also, Izturis' good half year lasted 159 games where he posted a .330 OBP. Granted not great, but he was 24 at the time.

I just don't understand the opinion that there is no chance whatsoever that Izturis will even become a decent player. He's talked about like he's in his mid 30's and not mid 20's. And I'm not saying I think he will, just that because of his age there is the possibility.

 

It seems like certain posters don't like Izturis and are very vocal about it. Others just like jumping in with them. Not everyone here thinks Izturis is going to be pitiful. God help Izturis if he gets off to a slow start. But, even if he starts off hot, then the ones that don't like him are going to be talking about how it's a fluke and he'll start sucking eventually and the cubs should trade him while he's got good value. It's really a no-win situation for some players.

 

Don't get me wrong, I realize not everyone thinks Izturis has no hope. In fact, I'm not crazy about him, especially at $4 mil+ this year. I just feel like there is a chance he may begin to hit decently at some point. Certainly I don't think he's much more unlikely than Cedeno to begin hitting.

[Peoriaman]

Being optimistic on this board is unacceptable!

[Soul]

Biggest issue has been the lack of OBP in the acquisitions.

 

Here's hoping D Lee brings his high OBP to Wrigley for the full 81 games, thus lifting us off the bottom of the league in OBP and Walks.

 

I still think some other team will jump up, keeping us from making the playoffs. Yes, the NL is weak, but there were still so many others ahead of us, and they're all trying to get better too.

 

I know people will bring out their career OBP's, but we did just add a guy who put up a .357 OBP last year, .351 OBP, and a .380 OBP (though in limited games). And this isn't counting in another aquisition in Ramirez who will give you a .350 plus OBP, and Lee who we didn't have for basically the entire year who will be good for .360 plus (conservative). Add in Barrett who's good for .350-.370. Murton who's good for .350-.370.

 

I'm not thinking OBP will be as big of a problem as it was in previous years.

 

The problem is, most of the guys you mentioned were on the team last year, and our collective OBP was bottom of the league. Most people don't feel DeRosa is likely to repeat his last year performance (I'm sure hoping he does, but I can't argue that he very well might not). His career OBP is more than 20 points lower. Soriano's career OBP also sits under the .330 mark.

 

That leaves few options to pull us up. A solid season from Lee would seem to be our best chance at improving those OBP numbers. Maybe his presence can kick start a few other guys as well.

[Bote McBoteface]

I believe the last play that Hendry aqcuired that was like Izturis (Hadn't had a great carreer or lived up to his hype) that the fans all hated before the season was Michael Barrett.

 

That guy had NO chance of improving.

 

Although I'm sure there are a million and a half reasons why that is not a valid comparison, and I'm sure I'm about to hear every one of them.

[CubFanPhilly]

I believe the last play that Hendry aqcuired that was like Izturis (Hadn't had a great carreer or lived up to his hype) that the fans all hated before the season was Michael Barrett.

 

Hendry acquired Barrett the under-achiever. Barrett's OPS jumped 80-100 points with the Cubs.

 

Hendry acquired Izturis the under-achiever. Therefore...

 

Got it!

 

Too bad nobody ever hyped Marquis. :(

[Soul]

Barett was roundly lambasted though.

 

It was a risk by Hendry. One that paid off.

 

Who knows? Maybe Izzy will improve a little. I think with Barrett there was a season with the Expos where he was healthy and did pretty good. So there was a flash or two there, something to hang on to and hope he could get back to.

 

Maybe there is with Izzy too, I don't know. I think his defense is a marked improvement over Cedeno at any rate.