Willy Taveras?

[TruffleShuffle]

I actually sort of liked him coming out of the minors, because his IsoP his last three seasons in the minors was .120, .101 and .067. That being said, his OBP in the majors has been mediocre, and he's had two full seasons to prove himself. I'd rather have him than Pierre because I think he's got some room to improve with the right hitting coach, but I'd prefer that the Cubs don't go dumpster diving for a CF at this point. Just take your lumps with Jock's defense and take what you can from his bat.

[Guest]

I wouldn't sell my tickets or anything if the Cubs ended up with Tavares. To some extent, I think that what you see in Tavares right now is much like what you can expect from Pie if he comes up this year. Great defense, slightly below average at getting on base, not a whole lot of slugging. If Pie comes up and produces that, he's going to be crucified as another "bust". I'd rather give Felix another year to mature before he's subjected to that.

 

My only concern with Tavares is how much we'd have to give up to get him. If it would be a lot, then I wouldn't go for it. But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

I guarantee Ted Lilly is in favor of this trade.

[cheapseats]

I wouldn't sell my tickets or anything if the Cubs ended up with Tavares. To some extent, I think that what you see in Tavares right now is much like what you can expect from Pie if he comes up this year. Great defense, slightly below average at getting on base, not a whole lot of slugging. If Pie comes up and produces that, he's going to be crucified as another "bust". I'd rather give Felix another year to mature before he's subjected to that.

 

My only concern with Tavares is how much we'd have to give up to get him. If it would be a lot, then I wouldn't go for it. But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

I guarantee Ted Lilly is in favor of this trade.

 

Oh, I'll definitely sell my tickets again if they trade so much as a living, breathing minor leaguer for Taveres, but it's not because I'd rather see Pie in CF next year.

[UK1679666180]

Well sure, but there's no indication he's ready for such production, and he's 1 year from arbitration. There's not much time to benefit from his inexpensiveness.

 

His increased BBs, drop in LD% are good indicators that he'll bounce back. I expect him to be around .340 OBP next year and see what happens as far as Pie. It's not like there won't be any demand for Taveras.

 

If the Cubs had some more pop in the order, I'd be for it, but they can't right now.

[TruffleShuffle]

But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

What's this defense concept? Is that accounted for in EqA, BABIP, VORP and OPS+?

[UK1679666180]

But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

What's this defense concept? Is that accounted for in EqA, BABIP, VORP and OPS+?

 

I know, it's impossible for someone to mention both in back to back sentences. How could they account for both?

 

While there's no true predictive stat, I look for the best overall stat (I prefer XR, but for ease, I'll end up with EqA). Taveras could potentially fill the OBP need at the top as well as a great defensive player in a diff. position to fill,

[TruffleShuffle]

But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

What's this defense concept? Is that accounted for in EqA, BABIP, VORP and OPS+?

 

I know, it's impossible for someone to mention both in back to back sentences. How could they account for both?

 

While there's no true predictive stat, I look for the best overall stat (I prefer XR, but for ease, I'll end up with EqA). Taveras could potentially fill the OBP need at the top as well as a great defensive player in a diff. position to fill,

 

awesome work

[Guest]

But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

What's this defense concept? Is that accounted for in EqA, BABIP, VORP and OPS+?

 

I know, it's impossible for someone to mention both in back to back sentences. How could they account for both?

 

While there's no true predictive stat, I look for the best overall stat (I prefer XR, but for ease, I'll end up with EqA). Taveras could potentially fill the OBP need at the top as well as a great defensive player in a diff. position to fill,

pfft - I know you were talking about it! :D

 

If Willy could continue to improve and post an OBP that was slightly above average, he becomes a very nice complimentary player for the team. It would be interesting to see the total impact of Willy vs Jacque, but I suspect it would be pretty close. The difference being, of course, that we'd have to spend players to get Willy.

[UK1679666180]

If there was some way the Cubs could invest the 4.5 saved of Jones' salary, it could add an additional bat to the bench.

 

If you gave the choice of having Jones or Taveras + 4.5 and whatever is needed to get him, I'd keep Jones and settle for the lesser defense in CF.

 

Of course, not many know the extent of whether or not Jones wants to be traded.

[tkenm356]

I don't want to sound like a total idiot, but I get what moorecg was saying about OPS+. Iv'e been talking Cubs and Major league baseball on other msesage board almost every day for the past 3 1/2 years and not until about a week after the Soriano signing did I hear people start throwing around OPS+ into debates about a players value. In fact, I'd never heard the stat used before anywhere, so I get what he's saying. After finding out what it was, I wondered why people didn't use it a lot to begin with.

 

That being said, I don't mind Taveras as a stopgap for Pie. I know we all want Church, and he may actually be readily available now that he's got 2 other competitors for his job, but if he costs to much to get and Taveras costs a lot less, I see no harm in trading for him if it doesn't hurt us in talent and prospects. Assuming Pie can be ready to go by the AS Break, we could turn around and trade Taveras off for something we may need to someone who is in need of a speedy CF'er. Who knows? I don't mind picking him up if he's all we can get. I mean 2-3 weeks ago we were reported as trying to get a SS to play center field for us, and that guy woukld've cost us $9MM. If we were that desperate Taveras may not be a bad idea, seeing as how he's making less than $1MM

[abuck1220]

ops+, eqa, vorp, qdlzor3;40}|2, whatever...he sucks.

[BigbadB]

Which brings us back to the same question I asked before. Why is Colorado thinking about trading him when they have been attempting to trade for a CF all winter long?

 

He's actually a pretty good fit in Colorado, and a lot like the good fit Pierre seemed to be when he was in Colorado.

[Abe Frohman]

Taveras very well may have the lowest slugging percentage in ML baseball. If not, he has to be close. If Murton bangs out 30 HR and hits .340, Soriano has another monster season, Lee comes back to 2005 form, and Ramirez produces like he is capable - the Cubs STILL can't afford Taveras with Izturis at SS.

 

That is basically a 1-2-3 inning for the opposition when the bottom 1/3 of the order comes up. Zambrano is easily the best hitter of the three.

 

Regardless, Taveras is a handy guy to have on the team. With this team, he would be a good pinch runner/defensive replacement.

[tkenm356]

ops+, eqa, vorp, qdlzor3;40}|2, whatever...he sucks.

 

That measures a players' ability to Quickly Develop Legitimate Zings Omitting Ramifications, right? His 3;40 numbers look good in that regard.

[Abe Frohman]

Which brings us back to the same question I asked before. Why is Colorado thinking about trading him when they have been attempting to trade for a CF all winter long?

 

He's actually a pretty good fit in Colorado, and a lot like the good fit Pierre seemed to be when he was in Colorado.

 

Because they would rather have Jacque Jones in CF than Taveras.

[abuck1220]

Which brings us back to the same question I asked before. Why is Colorado thinking about trading him when they have been attempting to trade for a CF all winter long?

 

He's actually a pretty good fit in Colorado, and a lot like the good fit Pierre seemed to be when he was in Colorado.

 

Because they would rather have Jacque Jones in CF than Taveras.

 

and so should the cubs.

[Wes Mantooth]

As a long time lurker, I would like to thank all of you that have contributed to this thread. From little league thru high school I was taught value was judged by batting average, home runs, and pitchers that win. Didn't matter if the ERA was above 6 as long as you get the wins.

I am trying to catch up with the stat heads at least to understand the different

ways to measure value. This thread has alot of information, and most of it is explained and debated well. Thanks again.

[Abe Frohman]

As a long time lurker, I would like to thank all of you that have contributed to this thread. From little league thru high school I was taught value was judged by batting average, home runs, and pitchers that win. Didn't matter if the ERA was above 6 as long as you get the wins.

I am trying to catch up with the stat heads at least to understand the different

ways to measure value. This thread has alot of information, and most of it is explained and debated well. Thanks again.

 

Your mother is a saint. :)

[Blizzau]

My $.02 from Denver:

 

There has been no mention in local papers of the Rockies wanting/trying to trade Taveras. Since they have been looking for a CF and were severely lacking in speed last year, he seems to fit them pretty well.

 

Clint Hurdle also apparently is very excited to have him and Kaz Matsui batting 1-2, and many here are talking about "small ball" finally becoming the focus of the team.

[abuck1220]

My $.02 from Denver:

 

There has been no mention in local papers of the Rockies wanting/trying to trade Taveras. Since they have been looking for a CF and were severely lacking in speed last year, he seems to fit them pretty well.

 

Clint Hurdle also apparently is very excited to have him and Kaz Matsui batting 1-2, and many here are talking about "small ball" finally becoming the focus of the team.

 

finally! good times are about to roll in denver!

[TruffleShuffle]

My $.02 from Denver:

 

There has been no mention in local papers of the Rockies wanting/trying to trade Taveras. Since they have been looking for a CF and were severely lacking in speed last year, he seems to fit them pretty well.

 

Clint Hurdle also apparently is very excited to have him and Kaz Matsui batting 1-2, and many here are talking about "small ball" finally becoming the focus of the team.

 

yeah, that was the problem alll those years, not the hopelessly incompetent pitching staffs ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)

[Blizzau]

My $.02 from Denver:

 

There has been no mention in local papers of the Rockies wanting/trying to trade Taveras. Since they have been looking for a CF and were severely lacking in speed last year, he seems to fit them pretty well.

 

Clint Hurdle also apparently is very excited to have him and Kaz Matsui batting 1-2, and many here are talking about "small ball" finally becoming the focus of the team.

 

yeah, that was the problem alll those years, not the hopelessly incompetent pitching staffs ](*,) ](*,) ](*,)

 

At least it's good to know that the Cubs management team isn't the only one in the league that is misguided in attempting to fix its problems! :wink:

[Warpticon]

But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

What's this defense concept? Is that accounted for in EqA, BABIP, VORP and OPS+?

 

Amazingly, defense isn't factores into EqA, BABIP, or OPS+. Similarly, it's not included in other offensive stats, like BA, HR, RBI, or SB. It is, however, included in VORP, which is the reason he has a higher VORP than Wilkerson, as sited above.

 

And before I give up anything for Taveras, who has fringe starter/bench player potential, I'd just start Pie.

[TruffleShuffle]

But the defensive value he adds to the team, even in Wrigley, isn't being factored into this discussion much at all.

 

What's this defense concept? Is that accounted for in EqA, BABIP, VORP and OPS+?

 

Amazingly, defense isn't factores into EqA, BABIP, or OPS+. Similarly, it's not included in other offensive stats, like BA, HR, RBI, or SB. It is, however, included in VORP, which is the reason he has a higher VORP than Wilkerson, as sited above.

 

And before I give up anything for Taveras, who has fringe starter/bench player potential, I'd just start Pie.

 

I'd prefer Taveres to Pie just because I think Pie really could use another season at Iowa to learn plate discipline (see: Corey Patterson) but I also don't want the Cubs to give up much of value for a guy who's not that good, and probably wouldn't be of much use after one year. Just keeping an outfield of Murton/Jock/Soriano probably is the best solution at this point.

[Geech]

Amazingly, defense isn't factores into EqA, BABIP, or OPS+. Similarly, it's not included in other offensive stats, like BA, HR, RBI, or SB. It is, however, included in VORP, which is the reason he has a higher VORP than Wilkerson, as sited above.

 

And before I give up anything for Taveras, who has fringe starter/bench player potential, I'd just start Pie.

 

Quality of defense is not a component of VORP, although positional scarcity is included. WARP in its various incarnations does include defensive contributions as measured by Rate.