McCoy: Time to Trade Dunn

[frostwyrm]

Defensively Dunn's future is at 1B, and we have DLee there. I like his offense, but not so much that I'd want him in the OF longterm. Bear in mind his OF defense is only going to get worse as he ages. If DLee disappears or the NL institutes the DH rule then I'd look at Dunn.

[soapy]

I'd wonder if the Reds would take J. Jones and any pitcher not named Zambrano, Hill or Prior for Dunn.

 

Lofton/Roberts (stopgap) CF

Murton RF

Lee 1B

Dunn LF

Ramirez 3B

Soriano 2B

Barrett C

Izturis SS

 

Alternatively, play Pie in CF and let him bat 7th, with Barrett (or anybody, I don't care) batting 2nd. Hell, with that lineup, let Soriano lead-off if he insists.

 

The concern then being is there enough money left over to upgrade the SP (especially since one potential starter has likely been dealt to get Dunn).

[Backtobanks]

I think, as Vance always :wink: says, that Dunn would be a huge addition to our "offense." He provides excellent OBP and excellent slugging. If he hits .260, you are looking at a monster season. He's only 26. There aren't many power hitters available this offseason, and far fewer available ones who are on teams that have [expletive] GMs, like the Reds.

 

Even Hendry should realize that rarely (go to hell, Tony Bautista) are 40hrs a bad thing.

 

If he hits .260 is like saying if Murton hits 50 HRs it will be a monster season. Dunn has only hit .260 once as a full-time player. Dunn for Jones - great. Dunn for Jones plus a pitching prospect - maybe. Dunn for Hill or Prior - no way.

 

No its not, Dunn has hit 260 in his career, Murton has not hit 17 HRs in a season, let alone 50. Don't be ridiculous.

 

He's hit .260 only once as a regular. I don't think Murton will ever hit 50 HRs, but I doubt Dunn will hit .260 again either. There were many posts about ARam not hustling, but at least he doesn't look like a giant Sequoia out in LF. Dunn is a total mope with a lousy BA and lousy defense who gives you 3 possibilities at the plate: HR, BB, or K. That being said I stand by my statement that if the Cubs can get him cheaply okay, but I wouldn't offer much. Actually, I think the whole discussion is moot since Cincy wouldn't trade him to a division rival anymore than the Cubs would trade someone like Prior to a division rival. Facing Dunn or Prior could come back to haunt their original teams for the next decade.

 

I said hes hit 260 in his career, not over the course of his career.

 

I understood what you said and I still don't think he will ever hit .260 again.

[RynoRules]

I would gladly live with Dunn's low BA and high K total if he his slugging % weren't trending down as it is, especially considering he plays half his games at the GABP. Further, the argument that Dunn's OPS is still better than the majority of the 06' Cubs is like saying "10 day old sushi still tastes better than dog poo." OK, may be that's a bit extreme, but you get my drift. Comparing Dunn to the Cubs horrendous lineup isn't much of a comparison.

[RammyFanny]

Per Rotoworld:

 

Given his propensity for striking out, a dwindling batting average and his skaky defense, the Reds could use their 40-homer man to land a much-needed starting pitcher, the paper suggests. Reportedly, Houston (Dunn's hometown), the Cubs and the Dodgers would all be interested.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would gladly live with Dunn's low BA and high K total if he his slugging % weren't trending down as it is, especially considering he plays half his games at the GABP. Further, the argument that Dunn's OPS is still better than the majority of the 06' Cubs is like saying "10 day old sushi still tastes better than dog poo." OK, may be that's a bit extreme, but you get my drift. Comparing Dunn to the Cubs horrendous lineup isn't much of a comparison.

 

I don't see how his slugging is trending downward. Obviously he had a horrendous two month span that caused his lower numbers this year, but the difference between '04 and '05 is made up in the difference in AVG, as evidenced by his IsoP(.303 in '04, .293 in '05) in those years.

[CuseCubFan69]

I would gladly live with Dunn's low BA and high K total if he his slugging % weren't trending down as it is, especially considering he plays half his games at the GABP. Further, the argument that Dunn's OPS is still better than the majority of the 06' Cubs is like saying "10 day old sushi still tastes better than dog poo." OK, may be that's a bit extreme, but you get my drift. Comparing Dunn to the Cubs horrendous lineup isn't much of a comparison.

 

I don't see how his slugging is trending downward. Obviously he had a horrendous two month span that caused his lower numbers this year, but the difference between '04 and '05 is made up in the difference in AVG, as evidenced by his IsoP(.303 in '04, .293 in '05) in those years.

 

Is it possible he was or is injured? Dunn for Prior?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I would gladly live with Dunn's low BA and high K total if he his slugging % weren't trending down as it is, especially considering he plays half his games at the GABP. Further, the argument that Dunn's OPS is still better than the majority of the 06' Cubs is like saying "10 day old sushi still tastes better than dog poo." OK, may be that's a bit extreme, but you get my drift. Comparing Dunn to the Cubs horrendous lineup isn't much of a comparison.

 

I don't see how his slugging is trending downward. Obviously he had a horrendous two month span that caused his lower numbers this year, but the difference between '04 and '05 is made up in the difference in AVG, as evidenced by his IsoP(.303 in '04, .293 in '05) in those years.

 

Is it possible he was or is injured? Dunn for Prior?

 

He played a long stretch of time with a broken hand, I think it was in 2005.

[nilodnayr]

I would gladly live with Dunn's low BA and high K total if he his slugging % weren't trending down as it is, especially considering he plays half his games at the GABP. Further, the argument that Dunn's OPS is still better than the majority of the 06' Cubs is like saying "10 day old sushi still tastes better than dog poo." OK, may be that's a bit extreme, but you get my drift. Comparing Dunn to the Cubs horrendous lineup isn't much of a comparison.

 

I don't see how his slugging is trending downward. Obviously he had a horrendous two month span that caused his lower numbers this year, but the difference between '04 and '05 is made up in the difference in AVG, as evidenced by his IsoP(.303 in '04, .293 in '05) in those years.

 

Is it possible he was or is injured? Dunn for Prior?

 

Dunn and Kearns are EXTREMELY close, not tattoo your initials on his leg close, but supposedly they still talked every day on the phone after the trade. Just so happens that when they were separated, both had horrible months. I say bring them back together in cubbie blue and let them do what they do best, walk and smack the crap out of the ball.

[E.J.]

The Cincinnati Post[/url]"]In Cincinnati, though, the Dunn years have coincided precisely with the six consecutive losing seasons. That said, you can't lay the blame at his locker anymore than you can kick Ernie Banks out of the Hall of Fame. There's no getting around the fact that, during his time here, the tall Texan has been the Reds' most productive hitter. By far.

 

And yet, it's not working; certainly not at a worth of $10.5 million, which is what Dunn stands to make next year.

 

That's the riddle that Wayne Krivsky is trying to make sense of these days. Is this a problem you trade your way out of?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I've been surfing RedsZone lately. Those guys expect a lot if they trade Dunn. They unanimously would not do Dunn for Prior. They want Ervin Santana and prospects or Bonderman or deals like that for Dunn.

[Bruno7481]

I've been surfing RedsZone lately. Those guys expect a lot if they trade Dunn. They unanimously would not do Dunn for Prior. They want Ervin Santana and prospects or Bonderman or deals like that for Dunn.

 

Well, they aren't the GM. And I don't think the Tigers or Angels would do those deals.

[Bruno7481]

I think most of baseball knows the situation the Reds are in, and the past couple of trades they have made. I dont think a lot of teams are you going to want to give up a ton of talkent for Dunn.

 

Other teams know its not working with Dunn in Cincy. If the Reds want to move him that badly they won't be able to hold him for that big of a ransom.

[CP_414]

I think if Dunn gets traded we will be surprised by how little the Reds get for him. I don't think they will get an offer much better than Jones and Marhsall would be. There are too many baseball people that value batting average and lack of strke outs, especially leading teams that can afford his $10M salary. Now is the time to get Dunn in Cubbie Blue. Then get JD Drew in CF.

[craig]

While his average may have slipped, he still had a very respectable 365 OBP. The only Cubs who had a higher OBP than that were Theriot in his limited AB's and Lee and Barrett. Murton matched him in this area. His low BA does not affect his ability to get on base.

 

With that 365 OBP, he produced a 490 SLG, his lowest in three years. That SLG combined with his OBP gave him a 855 OPS. ...His adventures in the field are overplayed....

 

Well, maybe his defense problem are overplayed. He may not be the worst outfielder in the last 50 years. But he's certainly one of the poorest ones right now, and his defense needs to be factored. If he defense is worth, say, 40 OPS points against, then 855 - 40 makes him an 815 OPS value.

 

Jones (if platooned) is around that. Murton is already an .800-type OPS guy, and I think may still get better. We've already got two left fielders. I don't see adding Dunn as a 3rd leftfielder makes great sense.

 

I'm not sure that the cost difference between Murton and Dunn is worth the performance advangtage, if any, that you'd get by upgrading from Murton to Dunn.

 

I've liked Dunn in past. But at present, I don't think he makes sense for us.

 

I also think he'd fit better in the AL, where he could DH. And where if he was batting 6th or 7th, his OBP value wouldn't be partially wasted by having a pitcher batting a coupe of spots behind him.

[sporrer17]

Dunn would be a killer addition to the middle of the lineup. Murton in RF wouldn't be the greatest defensive OF, but he'd be average. The offense and OBP between Murton and Dunn would be huge, potential for 55-60 HRs between the two, and then you can afford a rookie in CF.

 

Get a decent top of the order hitter at 2b/SS, and retain Rammy at 3b.

 

SS/2b

Murton

Lee

Dunn

Ramirez

Barrett

Pie

Cedeno (SS/2b)

 

Cedeno, Pie, and whoever the #1 hitter is would provide some speed, along with Murton and Lee being at least average in speed, if not above avg. Power from 3-6, power potential from Murton and Pie. OBP from 2-6.

 

I think that's about as good as lineup as we could hope for...unless we pull off A-Rod for SS.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

The price for Dunn may not be as high as some think.

 

This post from RedsZone outlines Dunn's contract situation.

 

Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

 

If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.

 

If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

 

If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

 

However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

 

And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

 

So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.

 

Teams trading for Dunn will be trading for one year of him before they will need to extend him or let him walk. The Reds will realize that they either need to make Dunn part of the franchise or trade him now. Dunn's value likely will be less than other players like Andruw Jones.

 

I'd love to get Dunn. I wonder if an offer of Dempster, Jones, and Marmol would get it done?

[Bruno7481]

The price for Dunn may not be as high as some think.

 

This post from RedsZone outlines Dunn's contract situation.

 

Keep in mind that, according to press reports, Dunn's 2008 option vanishes if he is traded. So that means --

 

If Dunn is traded now, he is signed (by the new team) for one season and then becomes a free agent.

 

If Dunn is traded in mid-season, he is signed for a half-season and then becomes a free agent.

 

If the Reds think they are likely to exercise the option for 2008, they should obviously hold him.

 

However, if the Reds think they probably will want to trade Dunn, he has the most value now -- when they can offer somebody a full season of Dunn. If they trade him in mid-season, they can only offer somebody a half season of Dunn.

 

And, if the Reds wait until after 2007, they can't trade him at all. This is because, according to press reports, once the option is exercised there is a full no-trade clause for 2008.

 

So, if they want to trade him, I don't think they can wait.

 

Teams trading for Dunn will be trading for one year of him before they will need to extend him or let him walk. The Reds will realize that they either need to make Dunn part of the franchise or trade him now. Dunn's value likely will be less than other players like Andruw Jones.

 

I'd love to get Dunn. I wonder if an offer of Dempster, Jones, and Marmol would get it done?

 

I doubt it. The Reds have "been there/done that" with Dempster.

 

I think the Reds would want pitching most likely, and probably somebody better than Marmol or Marmol + another guy.

 

I would imagine they would also ask for a Murton over Jones.

[don_kessinger_was_good]

I'm not a big Dunn fan, he makes too much money for what he offers compares to what we already have. BUT, I'd do something like Murton + Marshall for Dunn + Freel. They get salary relief, a replacement (and likely, better long-term) LF, and a starting pitcher. We get two starting OF-ers, one of whom is the leadoff guy we need. Good trade for both teams.

 

We'd definitely need to replace Marshall with one of the available veteran FA 4/5 starter types out there (eg, Lilly, Batista, Suppan), but $$ does not appear to be a concern this offseason.

 

1. Freel-CF

2. Theriot/Graffanino-2B (Tony G is a FA target for me, definitely)

3. Lee-1B

4. Ramirez-3B

5. Dunn-LF

6. Barrett-C

7. Jones-RF

8. Izturis-SS

 

Even without making additional moves, that's not a bad lineup. Every guy 1-6 is a 350+ OBP type, and we'd have tons of speed at the top of the order. I like it. In fact, I'll include an additional prospect, something like Eric Patterson or Jake Fox, to get this deal done.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

This article further implies that Dunn could be the next Red to be traded.

 

A few quotes:

 

The firing of Chris Chambliss was the latest move in the "Minnesota-ization" of the Reds. If the Minnesota-ization continues we could see bigger moves.

 

Let's explain the Minnesota-ization theory.

 

 

Sounds like the club wants a different approach to hitting.

 

"There are a lot of different ideas about hitting," Krivsky said. "I just want to win."

 

But he admits an aversion to strikeouts.

 

"I don't like strikeouts," he said. "I'd give up home runs for (fewer) strikeouts."

 

 

Krivsky is willing to sacrifice power for contact. Again, look at the Twins. When Justin Morneau hit 34 home runs this year he was first Twin to exceed 30 since 1987. The Reds had players go over 30 eight times in that period.

 

Adam Dunn, the ultimate strikeout-power guy, has hit at least 40 the last three seasons.

 

Krivsky traded away three of the five hitters who struck out 100 times in 2005 - Wily Mo Peña, Kearns and Lopez.

 

Dunn certainly could be next to go.

 

 

Krivsky also said this: "It's about scoring runs and preventing runs. The defense has to get better."

 

Cutting down on strikeouts and putting more emphasis on the defense would not seem to bode well for Dunn's long-term future with the Reds.

 

But whoever replaces Chambliss is not going to turn Dunn into Joe Mauer. And no one's going to turn him into a Gold Glove outfielder, or Silver or Bronze for that matter.

 

So if the Minnesota-ization continues, we could see Dunn playing elsewhere in 2007.

[Jazz]

Would you do Prior for Dunn?

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Would you do Prior for Dunn?

 

I'd strongly consider it.

 

If I did, I'd try to pull off a trade for Andruw Jones and Hudson to use Hudson to replace Prior.

[frostwyrm]

Dunn is a good buy-low target for an AL team, or maybe an NL team that needs a 1B. I don't think the Cubs are a good fit for him.

[abuck1220]

i'm glad that guy is a gm in the cubs' division.

[Guest]

Would you do Prior for Dunn?

No.