Highest OPS on the team

[Transmogrified Tiger]

His slugging % is probably a little over-inflated by his avevage. He may not be a huge power threat but he seems to hit for a good amount of doubles. In the minors last year he hit 2bs at 1 per 16 AB, in the majors he is hitting them at 13.5. The doubles are another indication that what he is doing isnt a fluke when it comes to his average. Getting cheap doubles is a different story than cheap hits. FWIW its taken Eckstein 4 times as many bats to hit almost twice the amount of doubles Theriot has.

 

It's the HR's that are skewing his SLG. He's hit one every 42 at bats, compared to once every 410 in the minors.

 

take a look at torii hunter's minor leauge stats. how does a guy with 42 career minor leauge hr's in 6 years and a career sluggin % under .400 hit 25-30 each year in the majors?

 

according to your logic it shouldnt be happening but it is.

 

Torii Hunter reached AAA at age 23. At the same age, Theriot started the year in Low A. You have to use minor league numbers in the proper context, age relative to level is very very important. As an aside, Hunter's minor league numbers(269/.334/.416/.750) are not vastly different from his major league numbers(.267/.320/.458/.778).

[goonys evil twin]

I don't understand the ongoing discussion of his SLG. Obviously you'd like every player's SLG to be high, but when you're talking about a top of the order hitter, it's far less important than a middle of the lineup hitter. As a leadoff or number two hitter, a player's job is to get on base for the 3-4-5 hitters. There is no denying that Theriot is, and always has been, good at getting on base. I could care less if his SLG is low, so long as he gets on base a good percentage of the time. And Theriot does just that. Any power from a number two hitter should be looked at as a bonus, rather than a lack of power being looked at as a negative.

 

"Any power" is not right. No power whatsoever is a negative. It's not a bonus to have a 1/2 hitter with some power. You'd like something more than Pierre power out of the spot.

 

I agree you don't need a lot. And I'm not ragging on Theriot's SLG. I'm talking about it in terms of his entire production. People are talking about his 900+ OPS, and that's fine. It's great production. But it's unsustainable, both in the OBP and SLG department. If Theriot gets on 35% of the time the rest of his career, that's great. But if he's only slugging .330 during that time, he's not helping the team a whole heck of a lot as an everyday player.

Edited September 28, 2006 by goony's evil twin

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't understand the ongoing discussion of his SLG. Obviously you'd like every player's SLG to be high, but when you're talking about a top of the order hitter, it's far less important than a middle of the lineup hitter. As a leadoff or number two hitter, a player's job is to get on base for the 3-4-5 hitters. There is no denying that Theriot is, and always has been, good at getting on base. I could care less if his SLG is low, so long as he gets on base a good percentage of the time. And Theriot does just that. Any power from a number two hitter should be looked at as a bonus, rather than a lack of power being looked at as a negative.

 

When you hit as few XBH's as Theriot, it has to be looked at as a negative. Power is not just home runs, it's doing things leadoff and number two hitters are supposed to do, hitting doubles and triples to get yourself into scoring position by yourself.

[fromthestretch]

His slugging % is probably a little over-inflated by his avevage. He may not be a huge power threat but he seems to hit for a good amount of doubles. In the minors last year he hit 2bs at 1 per 16 AB, in the majors he is hitting them at 13.5. The doubles are another indication that what he is doing isnt a fluke when it comes to his average. Getting cheap doubles is a different story than cheap hits. FWIW its taken Eckstein 4 times as many bats to hit almost twice the amount of doubles Theriot has.

 

It's the HR's that are skewing his SLG. He's hit one every 42 at bats, compared to once every 410 in the minors.

 

take a look at torii hunter's minor leauge stats. how does a guy with 42 career minor leauge hr's in 6 years and a career sluggin % under .400 hit 25-30 each year in the majors?

 

according to your logic it shouldnt be happening but it is.

 

Torii Hunter hit 60 homers in seven minor league seasons. Regardless, there are flaws with your argument.

 

First, you didn't look at the number of at-bats, instead just focusing on the number of seasons. Second, he did hit a decent number of doubles, which for some players can translate into home run power as they mature. Third, he reached the majors at age 22. Theriot is much older than that. Hunter's first season in the minors, he hit no homers in 100 at-bats at the age of 18. Probably didn't have much experience with wood bats prior to that. The next year, he hit 10 homers in 335 at-bats, slugging .439. Power can develop as a hitter matures. It's much easier for someone that age to develop more power than it is for a 27-year old with absolutely no history of power at all. Fourth, Hunter's career OPS in the minors was roughly .750, which isn't too far off his major league OPS of .786.

[goonys evil twin]

let's face it - he is producing when given a chance.

 

That is how you win a starting job.

 

If you only gave jobs to guys who produce right away in short stints, you'd have a pretty poor distribution of talent in the majors. A couple Pujols/Cabrera/Jeter/ARods, and a bunch of random Roosevelt Browns/Brant Browns.

 

 

The team is not necessarily better with Theriot in the lineup next year. It's entirely too early to make such a claim. Theriot doesn't have a magic run scoring ability.

 

Focusing on intangibles is why this team sucks. This team needs tangible long-run production.

[goonys evil twin]

Fourth, Hunter's career OPS in the minors was roughly .750, which isn't too far off his major league OPS of .786.

 

As an aside, Hunter's minor league numbers(269/.334/.416/.750) are not vastly different from his major league numbers(.267/.320/.458/.778).

 

 

Yeah, maybe Hunter wasn't a great option to use to describe a player who disproves what his minor league numbers say about him.

[fromthestretch]

The team is better with him in the lineup.

 

Are they better with him in the lineup instead of Ray Durham? Or Soriano? Probably not, but as many other people have said countless times in the 8,147 discussions on this topic, Theriot starting at second base would be much more tolerable if the Cubs upgrade the offense at other positions, such as SS, CF and one of the corner OF spots.

[Abe Frohman]

The team is better with him in the lineup.

 

Are they better with him in the lineup instead of Ray Durham? Or Soriano? Probably not, but as many other people have said countless times in the 8,147 discussions on this topic, Theriot starting at second base would be much more tolerable if the Cubs upgrade the offense at other positions, such as SS, CF and one of the corner OF spots.

 

I am down with that and totally agree.

 

let's face it - he is producing when given a chance.

 

That is how you win a starting job.

 

If you only gave jobs to guys who produce right away in short stints, you'd have a pretty poor distribution of talent in the majors. A couple Pujols/Cabrera/Jeter/ARods, and a bunch of random Roosevelt Browns/Brant Browns.

 

 

The team is not necessarily better with Theriot in the lineup next year. It's entirely too early to make such a claim. Theriot doesn't have a magic run scoring ability.

 

Focusing on intangibles is why this team sucks. This team needs tangible long-run production.

 

I don't think that Theriot deserves a starting job based on his "hot start" (which has lasted nearly a quarter of the season, remember) - I am simply of the opinion that this team needs a new approach offensively.

 

I think you would agree with me on that point.

 

Like many here, I strongly believe that high OB% is very related to high run production. Getting on base and scoring runs is the name of the game. I loved Shawon Dunston, but hated the fact that he walked about 15 times a season.

 

You know what I am saying?

[muntjack]

Just to chime back in, I really am torn on what I want the cubs to do with Theriot.

 

On one hand, it is not unprecedented for a player to arrive in the big leagues at age 26 and simultaneously hit his stride, eclipsing his minor league numbers in the majors.

 

On the other hand, it is certainly common for a player to run hot for his first 100 ABs before coming down to earth.

 

I found myself wondering what it is about Theriot, if anything, that makes me think he can continue to produce at a level near this.

 

1. It's obvious to me that Ryan has a good understanding of the strike zone. His K/BB ratio has been above average throughout his minor league career. I see no reason that ability will diminish, so I have to believe that his IsoD will remain above league average. As long as he keeps his average above .275, he should have a healthy OBP%.

 

2. In the short time I have been able to watch Theriot on the basepaths, it is evident that he is fundamentally sound ( he did make the one glaring mistake), and possesses above average speed. His high success rate in stolen base attempts is in too small of a sample size to make a positive prediction of future success, though he seems to get good jumps and time his attempts well. We all know speed doesn't slump, so it is likely that Theriot will also continue to be an above average baserunner.

 

 

3. It would be one of the great statistical anomalies in recent baseball history if Ryan continued to show power at the rate he has so far. There simply has been no sign of this at any level in his career. I can't see him slugging .500 over the course of a season at any point in his career. Any continued development in this area would have to be viewed as a bonus.

 

4. At 2nd base, Ryan seems to have an average glove, slightly below average range, a good turn, and at least average instincts. There is nothing remarkable about him defensively, but he will probably not butcher the routine turns, and will make the occasional great play.

 

 

Would you take a .280/.355/.420 line with average defense at 2nd base next year? Personally, I would like to try and contend next year, and I think we can get a better line from an affordable free agent. Basing my decision on those numbers, I make Ryan our utility guy.

 

Then I remember that he recently stopped switch hitting, and he is entering his prime, and even with those numbers above Ryan would be producing on par with Ichiro, and I realize how tough this decision will be for management.

 

Consider what Hendry would overpay to a veteran who will slightly outproduce those numbers, and how that money could be the difference between Padilla and Zito. Are .295/.350/.475 and Padilla > Theriot and Zito?

 

If we can sign Alfonso Soriano to play second base, it is worth relegating Theriot to the bench and worth the difference in salary . Any other free agent will not outproduce Theriot enough to justify the salary difference, imo.

[mul21]

I don't expect that Theriot can or will continue this torrid pace he's been on, especially when you look at what he did in the minors. That being said, what if FOR ONCE, the Cubs got lucky with a player that just defied the odds and performed at the major league level much better than the minors? I guess I don't know enough about scouting a player to know if this kid is real. I know it's unlikely, but the sample size keeps growing, and his numbers aare not falling off a cliff. I surely don't expect him to be the next Utley, but solid production for cheap would be wonderful. For those in the know.....What does Ryan have to do (if even possible) to win a starting job for next year? Do we just chalk this up as luck and continue to search for a 2B?

 

You mean kinda like the Marlins did with Uggla this year? I mean I don't expect mid 20 HR numbers from Theriot, but if he can hit .280-.300 with a .350-.380 OBP there's no reason not to play him everyday. I don't think you can pencil him in at 2B next year, but a solid year next year in the minors gives him a shot to be a really good bench guy or a starter in the middle infield and a contributor to a good team.

[soccer10k]

The obvious answer to the question would have been ARam but if he was the answer, the question wouldn't have been asked. I didn't think it was Theriot though.

[Mizzou]

I don't understand the ongoing discussion of his SLG. Obviously you'd like every player's SLG to be high, but when you're talking about a top of the order hitter, it's far less important than a middle of the lineup hitter. As a leadoff or number two hitter, a player's job is to get on base for the 3-4-5 hitters. There is no denying that Theriot is, and always has been, good at getting on base. I could care less if his SLG is low, so long as he gets on base a good percentage of the time. And Theriot does just that. Any power from a number two hitter should be looked at as a bonus, rather than a lack of power being looked at as a negative.

 

When you hit as few XBH's as Theriot, it has to be looked at as a negative. Power is not just home runs, it's doing things leadoff and number two hitters are supposed to do, hitting doubles and triples to get yourself into scoring position by yourself.

I know what power is.

 

I don't expect it from guys whose main purpose is to get on base. If Theriot doubles rather than getting a single, that's great. But I'm not going to look down on him if he doesn't hit for a lot of extra base hits. With Lee and Ramirez (and hopefully a good number five hitter next year) hitting behind him, simply getting on base is good enough for the number two hitter in my opinion.

[CubColtPacer]

 

2. In the short time I have been able to watch Theriot on the basepaths, it is evident that he is fundamentally sound ( he did make the one glaring mistake), and possesses above average speed. His high success rate in stolen base attempts is in too small of a sample size to make a positive prediction of future success, though he seems to get good jumps and time his attempts well. We all know speed doesn't slump, so it is likely that Theriot will also continue to be an above average baserunner.

 

I agree here with most of your argument, so let me just clarify a couple things that IMO need to be slightly amended. Theriot has been a good baserunner overall, but he's had more than one glaring mistake IMO. I assume you're talking about him attempting to steal 3rd with less than 2 outs and behind. I can think of at least two other cases where he has been picked off of first, one of those in the 9th inning representing the run for the tie. Overall, I think he's still pretty good in the baserunning department, but he has made a few big errors out there as well.

 

 

 

Would you take a .280/.355/.420 line with average defense at 2nd base next year? Personally, I would like to try and contend next year, and I think we can get a better line from an affordable free agent. Basing my decision on those numbers, I make Ryan our utility guy.

 

Then I remember that he recently stopped switch hitting, and he is entering his prime, and even with those numbers above Ryan would be producing on par with Ichiro, and I realize how tough this decision will be for management.

 

Consider what Hendry would overpay to a veteran who will slightly outproduce those numbers, and how that money could be the difference between Padilla and Zito. Are .295/.350/.475 and Padilla > Theriot and Zito?

 

If we can sign Alfonso Soriano to play second base, it is worth relegating Theriot to the bench and worth the difference in salary . Any other free agent will not outproduce Theriot enough to justify the salary difference, imo.

 

I would definitely take Theriot next year for those numbers, because as you said if we can trust Theriot to put those numbers up we can upgrade other positions with the money saved. I just am not sure he could hit that line-especially the slugging.

 

One thing that has not been completely brought up is the platoon. It probably inflated Theriot's numbers. It wasn't a straight right-left platoon, but it seemed to be rather who Dusty thought would hit best off each individual pitcher, sometimes taking into account how hot each player was, and sometimes not. How large is that effect? I don't know, but it's another factor to consider.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't understand the ongoing discussion of his SLG. Obviously you'd like every player's SLG to be high, but when you're talking about a top of the order hitter, it's far less important than a middle of the lineup hitter. As a leadoff or number two hitter, a player's job is to get on base for the 3-4-5 hitters. There is no denying that Theriot is, and always has been, good at getting on base. I could care less if his SLG is low, so long as he gets on base a good percentage of the time. And Theriot does just that. Any power from a number two hitter should be looked at as a bonus, rather than a lack of power being looked at as a negative.

 

When you hit as few XBH's as Theriot, it has to be looked at as a negative. Power is not just home runs, it's doing things leadoff and number two hitters are supposed to do, hitting doubles and triples to get yourself into scoring position by yourself.

I know what power is.

 

I don't expect it from guys whose main purpose is to get on base. If Theriot doubles rather than getting a single, that's great. But I'm not going to look down on him if he doesn't hit for a lot of extra base hits. With Lee and Ramirez (and hopefully a good number five hitter next year) hitting behind him, simply getting on base is good enough for the number two hitter in my opinion.

 

There's far too many players out there who can do what Theriot can't to make him any more than a bench player.

[Mizzou]

There's far too many players out there who can do what Theriot can't to make him any more than a bench player.

I guess Mark Loretta, Mark Grudzelaniek, and Placido Polanco should have all been bench players too then. Good thing they were given a chance to prove that minor league stats don't tell you everything.

 

They all put up similar minor league numbers to Theriot, and then went on to become successful everyday players in the big leagues for the last decade. Theriot might be one of those guys, he might not. But to write him off right now and say that he won't because he hasn't been given the chance is pretty foolish.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There's far too many players out there who can do what Theriot can't to make him any more than a bench player.

I guess Mark Loretta, Mark Grudzelaniek, and Placido Polanco should have all been bench players too then. Good thing they were given a chance to prove that minor league stats don't tell you everything.

 

They all put up similar minor league numbers to Theriot, and then went on to become successful everyday players in the big leagues for the last decade. Theriot might be one of those guys, he might not. But to write him off right now and say that he won't because he hasn't been given the chance is pretty foolish.

 

Loretta broke into the big leagues a year plus younger and had a better milb OPS than Theriot by 40 points.

 

Polanco was 4-5 years younger than Theriot when he made the big leagues.

 

But even then, exceptions don't disprove the rule.

[Mizzou]

There's far too many players out there who can do what Theriot can't to make him any more than a bench player.

I guess Mark Loretta, Mark Grudzelaniek, and Placido Polanco should have all been bench players too then. Good thing they were given a chance to prove that minor league stats don't tell you everything.

 

They all put up similar minor league numbers to Theriot, and then went on to become successful everyday players in the big leagues for the last decade. Theriot might be one of those guys, he might not. But to write him off right now and say that he won't because he hasn't been given the chance is pretty foolish.

 

Loretta broke into the big leagues a year plus younger and had a better milb OPS than Theriot by 40 points.

 

Polanco was 4-5 years younger than Theriot when he made the big leagues.

 

But even then, exceptions don't disprove the rule.

Of course they don't disprove the rule, but they do prove that minor league stats don't automatically determine a player's worth in the big leagues. All I'm saying it that I think Theriot can be a good top of the order hitter for the Cubs next year, if it's assembled right.

 

Theriot

Murton

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano (CF)

Barrett

Jones/Wilson

Izturis/Cedeno

 

Looks like a solid lineup to me. And if Theriot sucks, then you go out and replace him and have Murton leadoff with Barrett hitting behind him if need be.