AL MVP- Breaking Down the Contenders

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

In my final installment, I'll break down the contenders for the AL MVP. Once again, I eliminated pitchers from consderation. I then took the top seven in OPS and added Jeter and Mauer to that list (1-2 in BA for the league) for my nine possible MVP's. My list is as follows: Hafner, M. Ramirez, Dye, Thome, Ortiz, Giambi, Morneau, Mauer, and Jeter.

 

Beginning with OPS, the candidates rank like this:

1. Hafner- 1080

2. Ramirez- 1070

3. Dye- 1042

T4. Thome- 1028

T4. Ortiz 1028

6. Giambi- 1016

7. Morneau- 956

8. Mauer- 948

9. Jeter- 878

 

Based on this stat alone, Hafner looks to be the leading candidate. Also it is worth noting that Ramirez is higher than his highly acclaimed teammate. It is amusing that Jeter and Ortiz seem to be the favorites in the national media, but neither are the favorites on my list thus far.

 

Next I looked at batting average. I personally don't care for the stat all that much, but since it can influence the national media, it is worth noting.

 

1. Mauer- .356

2. Jeter- .334

T3. Dye- .326

T3. Ramirez .326

5. Morneu- .317

6. Hafner- .307

7. Thome- .294

8. Ortiz- .284

9. Giambi- .262

 

Using BA as a metric, Jeter gains some value as does Mauer. Giambi's low average likely takes him out of view from the traditional voters.

 

Moving along to HR's and then RBIs gives us another view into how the traditional voters will view things.

 

HR-

1. Ortiz- 46

2. Hafner- 39

3. Dye -38

T4. Thome- 36

T4. Giambi- 36

6. Ramirez- 34

7. Morneau- 32

T8 Jeter- 10

T8 Mauer 10

 

RBI

1. Ortiz- 120

2. Hafner- 112

3. Morneau- 110

4. Giambi- 105

5. Dye- 101

6. Ramirez- 100

7. Thome- 91

8. Jeter- 78

9. Mauer- 73

 

Taking these two stats into account with everything else, it's now clear why the national media has a jimmy for Ortiz. Ortiz is high on the traditional run-producing (yet poor) metrics of RBI and HR's.

 

My guess based on BA, RBI, and HR (and Jeter's noteriety), the national race will look like 1. Ortiz, 2. Jeter, 3. Hafner

 

I'm just not sure that's how it should be, so I kept looking.

 

Moving to the more comprehensive stat, runs created, this is what I found.

 

1. Hafner 119

2. Ramirez 108

T3. Ortiz 104

T3 Jeter 104

5. Thome- 103

6. Giambi 101

7. Dye- 99

8. Morneau- 96

9. Mauer- 91

 

While Jeter and Ortiz, are knocking at the door here, Hafner has taken a huge advantage here. Ramirez also out-scores his more affable teammate.

 

The argument then becomes isn't Ortiz Mr. Clutch? Well, I looked at BA with RISP and prepared to be surprised by the results.

 

1. Mauer- .398

2. Jeter- .388

3. Dye- .360

4. Thome- .344

5. Morneau- .331

6. Ramirez- .325

7. Hafner- .315

8. Giambi- .291

9. Ortiz- .286

 

Mr. Clutch himself is at the bottom of the list. It's also worth noting that his BA with RISP is identical to his BA in all situations. This certainly shouldn't lift Ortiz to the top of the MVP voting.

 

I finally decided to see what looking at Win Shares would do to my thinking.

 

T1. Ramirez- 22

T1. Jeter- 22

T1. Mauer- 22

T4. Hafner- 19

T4. Ortiz- 19

T4. Thome- 19

T4. Morneau- 19

8. Giambi 18

9. Dye- 17

 

What this list makes clear is there is no clear winner right now in the AL MVP. Jeter and Ortiz are likely going to be the choices of the national media. Ortiz does better in OPS and the power categories, but win shares makes Jeter's contributions a little more relevant. If choosing between those two, I'd likely choose Jeter even though I like Ortiz better. In reality, Ortiz has been outperformed by Manny, and if anyone on the Red Sox should win MVP this year, it should be Ramirez.

 

I'm not ready to proclaim a deserving winner here, but if I had to rank mine, I'd likely rank them-

 

1. Jeter

2. Ramirez

3. Hafner

4. Ortiz

5. Mauer

 

The remaining four don't stand out enough to rank any further.

8.

[DeuceBaseman]

Sorry but I disagree. You don't have Dye near the top. I am a die hard Cub fan but Dye's stats are a top the league in every category. Jermaine Dye should be the AL MVP right now by far. Ortiz is a close 2nd but his average isn't near Dye's. And Jeter is up there too but his power #'s aren't there. Dye has both right now, and is so clutch for the Sox. Dye and Beltran for MVP.

[VVMattVV]

Sorry but I disagree. You don't have Dye near the top. I am a die hard Cub fan but Dye's stats are a top the league in every category.

 

If you're going to use that argument, why not Travis Hafner then? He has a higher OPS, more HR, RBI, RC, and WS than Dye, and thats just from stats that Vance listed.

 

This is a real tough choice, I'd have to wait to see the numbers at the very end of the year. I'm guessing that since a lot of the top candidates are DHs, they'll lose votes to guys like Jeter since he plays the field. Since Ortiz is so popular throughout the national media, that'll probably shy away voters from Manny. My list would have to be

 

Ramirez

Hafner

Jeter

Ortiz

Dye

[TB_11]

As it stands now, Jeter will most likely win the award due to a) the Yankees making the playoffs, b) the extreme amount of national attention placed on him and c) the struggles of A-Rod make Jeter look better by comparison. Pronk and Manny should all get more serious consideration though, IMO.

[Rob]

If we're listing Jeter, why aren't we paying any attention to Tejada? His stats are almost exactly the same... a little lighter on the OBP and AVG, but a good deal higher on SLG.

 

And for that matter Carlos Guillen has numbers that are just about the same.

 

I'm sorry, but I don't believe there's any way Hafner doesn't deserve the award this year... and if it's not him, it's Manny or Mauer.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

By VORP:

 

1. Travis Hafner 74.4

2. Manny Ramirez 63.2

3. David Ortiz 60.0

4. Jermaine Dye 58.9

5. Derek Jeter 57.9

6. Joe Mauer 57.7

7. Miguel Tejada 57.1

8. Grady Sizemore 56.7

9. Vernon Wells 56.0

10. Jim Thome 54.3

[DeuceBaseman]

Cuz Hafner is a DH so he loses a ton of votes. Plus he's on a losing team. Jeter hasn't been getting much attention this year. His power #'s arent up there with Dye's. And the rest of the stats are similar.

[stitchface]

jeter's going to win. and while he might not be most deserving, at least he has a good argument. certainly better than ichiro did. vance you should post obp since that is the most important offensive stat - and you have to consider defense. what jeter and mauer provide defensively certainly makes up a lot of ground on ortiz, manny (who is essentially a DH), and hafner. Dye is a good defender. he won't win due to Ozzie's mouth.

[rocket]

JETER JETER PUMPKIN EATER

[rawaction]

This race will go down to the wire. Would have been interesting to throw Liriano's name in there had he completed the season the way he was projected to about a month ago.

 

I think the voting will go: Jeter, Ortiz, Dye, Ramirez, Thome

 

Hafner is often overlooked in the league for some odd reason, and is on the only team not in the playoff race of the MVP contenders.

 

I'd actually probably vote for Dye, because he's the biggest surprise to me. Jeter would probably be 2nd, followed by Manny, Hafner, and Ortiz.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I could've included some other stats, I know. Dye performs well in the power categories and has a good average, but there are other power hitters, Manny and Pronk, who out perform him.

 

I still think the HR's and RBI's are going to keep Ortiz at the top of the national view. Win Shares likely put Jeter over the top for me, but I may change my mind before the end of the season. There are so many players that are so close, anything can happen.

 

Dye is seventh in the league in runs created and last among my group of nine in win shares. I don't see him overcoming enough in those categories for me to think he's the MVP.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

David Ortiz will win the MVP for the Mr Clutch moniker, and real baseball fans everywhere will groan because he's not the most valuable player on his own team.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Will they vote for a DH, though?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Will they vote for a DH, though?

 

I think yes because the one thing people who vote "know" about Ortiz is that every Red Sox game is won in the bottom of the 9th with a walk-off 7-run HR.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Will they vote for a DH, though?

 

I think yes because the one thing people who vote "know" about Ortiz is that every Red Sox game is won in the bottom of the 9th with a walk-off 7-run HR.

 

And the walk-off HRs travel 1365.7 happy feet.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Personally, I think Giambi/Jeter and Ramirez/Ortiz are going to cancel each other out (the problem with having multiple MVP candidates on a team), and it wouldn't SURPRISE me that either Morneau or Hafner wins the MVP award.

 

Because, to me Justin Morneau is more valuable to the Twins, then Ortiz/Ramirez is to Boston, or dare I say Derek Jeter is NY. Take Morneau out of Minnesota lineup, and they are battling the Royals, and not the White Sox/Tigers. To me, I would vote for Morneau as MVP.

[chuckywang]

Sorry but I disagree. You don't have Dye near the top. I am a die hard Cub fan but Dye's stats are a top the league in every category. Jermaine Dye should be the AL MVP right now by far. Ortiz is a close 2nd but his average isn't near Dye's. And Jeter is up there too but his power #'s aren't there. Dye has both right now, and is so clutch for the Sox. Dye and Beltran for MVP.

 

Anybody find it odd that Dye is having a season that absolutely pales every single other season he's had? His numbers are so much better this season that it's ridiculous. I'm thinking 1996 Brady Anderson ridiculous. I'm not saying he's juicing, but you have to wonder.....

[TB_11]

Personally, I think Giambi/Jeter and Ramirez/Ortiz are going to cancel each other out (the problem with having multiple MVP candidates on a team), and it wouldn't SURPRISE me that either Morneau or Hafner wins the MVP award.

 

Because, to me Justin Morneau is more valuable to the Twins, then Ortiz/Ramirez is to Boston, or dare I say Derek Jeter is NY. Take Morneau out of Minnesota lineup, and they are battling the Royals, and not the White Sox/Tigers. To me, I would vote for Morneau as MVP.

 

Morneau has Mauer to cancel out some votes.

[TB_11]

I'd also like to say that Hafner should get extra votes because he has the best nickname of all contenders. Pronk.

[soccer10k]

I still maintain that a player on a team that isn't even in playoff contention should not win the award. I will also say that I didn't know that Dye had a higher OPS than Thome this year. My list is:

 

Ramirez

Jeter

Dye

Ortiz

Hafner

 

But with the Red Sox in a huge downfall, this could change.

[RationalSoxFan]

Sorry but I disagree. You don't have Dye near the top. I am a die hard Cub fan but Dye's stats are a top the league in every category. Jermaine Dye should be the AL MVP right now by far. Ortiz is a close 2nd but his average isn't near Dye's. And Jeter is up there too but his power #'s aren't there. Dye has both right now, and is so clutch for the Sox. Dye and Beltran for MVP.

 

Anybody find it odd that Dye is having a season that absolutely pales every single other season he's had? His numbers are so much better this season that it's ridiculous. I'm thinking 1996 Brady Anderson ridiculous. I'm not saying he's juicing, but you have to wonder.....

That is the single dumbest thing I have ever read, EVER. Brady Anderson (in the four full seasons prior to 1996) averaged around 15 HR a year. He then hit 50. Jermaine has average 27 in his full seasons, and will most likely finish around 45. That's not that big of a disparity.

 

I love how loosely everyone throws around accusations of steroids. I remember someone on the board making a comment about Prior, just because of his poor luck with injuries.

 

Absolutely dreadful.

[soccer10k]

Sorry but I disagree. You don't have Dye near the top. I am a die hard Cub fan but Dye's stats are a top the league in every category. Jermaine Dye should be the AL MVP right now by far. Ortiz is a close 2nd but his average isn't near Dye's. And Jeter is up there too but his power #'s aren't there. Dye has both right now, and is so clutch for the Sox. Dye and Beltran for MVP.

 

Anybody find it odd that Dye is having a season that absolutely pales every single other season he's had? His numbers are so much better this season that it's ridiculous. I'm thinking 1996 Brady Anderson ridiculous. I'm not saying he's juicing, but you have to wonder.....

That is the single dumbest thing I have ever read, EVER. Brady Anderson (in the four full seasons prior to 1996) averaged around 15 HR a year. He then hit 50. Jermaine has average 27 in his full seasons, and will most likely finish around 45. That's not that big of a disparity.

 

I love how loosely everyone throws around accusations of steroids. I remember someone on the board making a comment about Prior, just because of his poor luck with injuries.

 

Absolutely dreadful.

 

Agreed and this is in response to chucky. If by 'steroids' you mean 'batting in a lineup with Paul Konerko and Jim Thome', then yes it has to be steroids.

[abuck1220]

ortiz seems like he's a little too focused on the mvp race...

 

In comments published Monday, Ortiz said the Red Sox's free-fall from the AL playoff race should not affect his MVP candidacy with voters, and compared his own performance to Jeter, whose MVP stock rose as the Yankees took command of the AL East. New York led Boston by 10½ games on Tuesday.

 

"Don't get me wrong -- he's a great player, having a great season, but he's got a lot of guys in that lineup," Ortiz said of Jeter. "Top to bottom, you've got a guy who can hurt you. Come hit in this lineup, see how good you can be."

 

i'm sure his teammates appreciate that last line.

[rocket]

ortiz seems like he's a little too focused on the mvp race...

 

In comments published Monday, Ortiz said the Red Sox's free-fall from the AL playoff race should not affect his MVP candidacy with voters, and compared his own performance to Jeter, whose MVP stock rose as the Yankees took command of the AL East. New York led Boston by 10½ games on Tuesday.

 

"Don't get me wrong -- he's a great player, having a great season, but he's got a lot of guys in that lineup," Ortiz said of Jeter. "Top to bottom, you've got a guy who can hurt you. Come hit in this lineup, see how good you can be."

 

i'm sure his teammates appreciate that last line.

 

yeah that manny ramirez is a bum

[soccer10k]

ortiz seems like he's a little too focused on the mvp race...

 

In comments published Monday, Ortiz said the Red Sox's free-fall from the AL playoff race should not affect his MVP candidacy with voters, and compared his own performance to Jeter, whose MVP stock rose as the Yankees took command of the AL East. New York led Boston by 10½ games on Tuesday.

 

"Don't get me wrong -- he's a great player, having a great season, but he's got a lot of guys in that lineup," Ortiz said of Jeter. "Top to bottom, you've got a guy who can hurt you. Come hit in this lineup, see how good you can be."

 

i'm sure his teammates appreciate that last line.

 

Ortiz is right because Jeter doesn't deserve the AL MVP. Where Ortiz is wrong is that he isn't even the MVP of his own team. Manny Ramirez deserves to be the MVP more than Ortiz.

 

That being said, Jermaine Dye is my AL MVP right now.