Neyer on the Cubs

[EastonBlues22]

National Media finally seems to be catching on to what intelligent Cubs fans everywhere have known for quiet awhile...

------------------------

The problem for the Cubs -- who did win, by the way -- is that their three walks came in 18 innings. Which is low for the Cubs ... but not absurdly low. See, the Cubs aren't going to finish 11th, or 12th, or any other number that's at least halfway respectable. The Cubs have drawn fewer walks than any other National League team this season. Far fewer. And we shouldn't be too surprised. In 2005, the Cubs drew fewer walks than any other National League team. In 2004, the Cubs drew fewer walks than 14 National League teams. Ditto in 2003.

 

...

 

This season, the Cubs have issued more walks, by a healthy margin, than any other team in the National League. In 2003, when somehow they reached the playoffs and almost the World Series, the Cubs issued more walks than any other team in the National League. Over the aforementioned four seasons, the Cubs issued 2,428 walks, more than any other team in the league.

...

 

WalkDiff

Phillies +476

Cardinals +292

Padres +262

Reds +252

Astros +204

 

...

 

After these five teams, nobody's better than 65 to the good. Nine teams have negative walk differentials, and two of them really, really stand out ...

 

WalkDiff

Pirates -425

Cubbies -625

 

...

 

The Cubs are an organization that has problems far deeper than the manager. The manager probably is a part of the problem, if only because he probably isn't a part of the eventual solution. But as long as the general manager (and his boss) are giving the manager pitchers who don't throw strikes and batters who don't take balls, it's not going to matter much who's in the dugout.

 

Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider three times most weeks during the season. You can reach him via rob.neyer@dig.com, and his new book, "Rob Neyer's Big Book of Baseball Blunders," is available everywhere.

 

 

Complete story at this Link.

[Soriano12]

http://humanities.byu.edu/elc/student/idioms/idioms/images/hit_nail_on_head.jpg

[rawaction]

Strange that the top 5 walk teams aren't all that great. Philly hasn't been good recently. This is the first year the Reds have been above 5th place in the NLC. The Padres are a consistent .500 hovering team. Only the Cards and Astros have had multiple playoff appearances over that span, and Houston hasn't had any teams that had much of a shot.

[UMFan83]

Damn thats beautiful

[Banedon]

Neyer has been one of the guys criticizing the Cubs for quite some time. He's been on them about the Perez and Womack signings, and just in general for the same types of things frequently posted about here.

[Soriano12]

Strange that the top 5 walk teams aren't all that great. Philly hasn't been good recently. This is the first year the Reds have been above 5th place in the NLC. The Padres are a consistent .500 hovering team. Only the Cards and Astros have had multiple playoff appearances over that span, and Houston hasn't had any teams that had much of a shot.

 

I think you need an ultimate blend of OBP and Slugging.

 

Just because you have the best OBP won't make you a good team...but if

you have the worst OBP and by a wide margin...you are gonna be in a world of hurt.

[C.C.]

Good article...

[SouthSideRyan]

Neyer has been one of the guys criticizing the Cubs for quite some time. He's been on them about the Perez and Womack signings, and just in general for the same types of things frequently posted about here.

 

He was on them back in August of '03.

[Banedon]

Neyer has been one of the guys criticizing the Cubs for quite some time. He's been on them about the Perez and Womack signings, and just in general for the same types of things frequently posted about here.

 

He was on them back in August of '03.

 

Exactly...I don't think Neyer is a good example of the national media "Catching on"...though I love the article.

[Soriano12]

lets see where the problems are....

 

The good

 

Ryan Theirot .448 (not enough sample size though)

Michael Barret .389

Derrek Lee .375

Matt Murton .361

Aramis Ramirez .344

 

 

The bad

 

Juan Pierre .328

Angal Pagan .327

Jacque Jones .315

Phil Neven .314

John Maybry .314

Cesar Izturis .314

 

 

The Ugly

 

Henry Blanco .300

Freddie Bynum .289

Ronny Cedeno .276

Nefi Perez .268

[FergieJ31]

Extremely well-written and extremely accurate. It's also quite diplomatic and charitable regarding Dusty's role in this mess, especially this section:

 

The Cubs are an organization that has problems far deeper than the manager. The manager probably is a part of the problem, if only because he probably isn't a part of the eventual solution.

 

The truth is more severe than this, as we all know. Neyer almost seems to suggest Dusty is merely an enabler and not the guy who said "walks clog bases". Nonetheless, Neyer is absolutely spot on when he implies the Cubs problems will not go away when they get a new manager.

[Soriano12]

Extremely well-written and extremely accurate. It's also quite diplomatic and charitable regarding Dusty's role in this mess, especially this section:

 

The Cubs are an organization that has problems far deeper than the manager. The manager probably is a part of the problem, if only because he probably isn't a part of the eventual solution.

 

The truth is more severe than this, as we all know. Neyer almost seems to suggest Dusty is merely an enabler and not the guy who said "walks clog bases". Nonetheless, Neyer is absolutely spot on when he implies the Cubs problems will not go away when they get a new manager.

 

Subtract Baker.....

 

and these 4 players

 

Henry Blanco .300

Freddie Bynum .289

Ronny Cedeno .276

Nefi Perez .268

 

well maybe keep Cedeno and see if he can improve his OBP..and its

a start to making the problems go away..IMO

[snoodmonger]

Extremely well-written and extremely accurate. It's also quite diplomatic and charitable regarding Dusty's role in this mess, especially this section:

 

The Cubs are an organization that has problems far deeper than the manager. The manager probably is a part of the problem, if only because he probably isn't a part of the eventual solution.

 

The truth is more severe than this, as we all know. Neyer almost seems to suggest Dusty is merely an enabler and not the guy who said "walks clog bases". Nonetheless, Neyer is absolutely spot on when he implies the Cubs problems will not go away when they get a new manager.

 

Subtract Baker.....

 

and these 4 players

 

Henry Blanco .300

Freddie Bynum .289

Ronny Cedeno .276

Nefi Perez .268

 

well maybe keep Cedeno and see if he can improve his OBP..and its

a start to making the problems go away..IMO

 

You've got the wrogn guys.

 

Guys like Blanco and, to a lesser degree, Bynum, aren't a major part of the problem because they don't play every day. Blanco in particular gives you about what you'd expect from a backup cather, though you could argue at too high a cost.

 

It's Pierre, Izturis, Jones, Cedeno, and Perez that are the problems. These are guys who will see tons of action, and they're all pretty bad. Jones wouldn't be bad we didn't have to rely on him to produce so much, and Cedeno probably deserves a chance to grow, given his age, but Pierre Izturis and Neifi are huge liabilities that severely limit our ability to field a decent offense.

[goonys evil twin]

This isn't just an OBP thing.

 

The article is about walk differential. Walks taken minus walks given up. Combine that with HR hit minus HR allowed and you have a pretty good indication of the better vs the worse teams.

[rawaction]

lets see where the problems are....

 

The good

 

Ryan Theirot .448 (not enough sample size though)

Michael Barret .389

Derrek Lee .375

Matt Murton .361

Aramis Ramirez .344

 

 

The bad

 

Juan Pierre .328

Angal Pagan .327

Jacque Jones .315

Phil Neven .314

John Maybry .314

Cesar Izturis .314

 

 

The Ugly

 

Henry Blanco .300

Freddie Bynum .289

Ronny Cedeno .276

Nefi Perez .268

 

For the record, a .344 OBP out of your cleanup hitter (Aramis) is not good. It's probably somewhere between "good" and "bad". Typically, I'd like to see upwards of .360 from the cleanup spot. .315 OBP out of your #5 hitter is somewhere between "bad" and "ugly", I'd like to see that .344 hitting there.

 

In a realistically perfect world, the Cubs would replace Pierre with someone that can fit in the good column at the top of the order. Then replace Jones, Cedeno, or Izturis with a middle of the order bat that can fit into the "good" group. I think Aramis improves with Lee and better protection from said "good" middle of the order hitter.

[SoonerCubFan]

You've got the wrogn guys.

 

Guys like Blanco and, to a lesser degree, Bynum, aren't a major part of the problem because they don't play every day. Blanco in particular gives you about what you'd expect from a backup cather, though you could argue at too high a cost.

 

It's Pierre, Izturis, Jones, Cedeno, and Perez that are the problems. These are guys who will see tons of action, and they're all pretty bad. Jones wouldn't be bad we didn't have to rely on him to produce so much, and Cedeno probably deserves a chance to grow, given his age, but Pierre Izturis and Neifi are huge liabilities that severely limit our ability to field a decent offense.

 

I do not agree with these statements. I would suggest that the combination of all of them in the same lineup is pretty bad, but any two of them (excluding Neifi, who should only see limited PT, as he has lately) in a better balanced lineup would be fine. For instance, Pierre has been excellent the last 2.5 months with an OBP well over .350 and 25 EBHs, yet has only scored 32 runs in 67 games, due to a variety of factors.

 

Unfortunately things stack up such that the first 4 are likely starters next year. If we could find a way to upgrade 2 of these positions offensively (including Pierre simply maintaing his current and career paces), and see a return of DLee to at least .900 OPS, the Cubs could get back to at least the middle of the pack or better next year in runs scored. A big IF at this point, but just a couple of smart moves and good health away.

[goonys evil twin]

You've got the wrogn guys.

 

Guys like Blanco and, to a lesser degree, Bynum, aren't a major part of the problem because they don't play every day. Blanco in particular gives you about what you'd expect from a backup cather, though you could argue at too high a cost.

 

It's Pierre, Izturis, Jones, Cedeno, and Perez that are the problems. These are guys who will see tons of action, and they're all pretty bad. Jones wouldn't be bad we didn't have to rely on him to produce so much, and Cedeno probably deserves a chance to grow, given his age, but Pierre Izturis and Neifi are huge liabilities that severely limit our ability to field a decent offense.

 

I do not agree with these statements. I would suggest that the combination of all of them in the same lineup is pretty bad, but any two of them (excluding Neifi, who should only see limited PT, as he has lately) in a better balanced lineup would be fine. For instance, Pierre has been excellent the last 2.5 months with an OBP well over .350 and 25 EBHs, yet has only scored 32 runs in 67 games, due to a variety of factors.

 

Unfortunately things stack up such that the first 4 are likely starters next year. If we could find a way to upgrade 2 of these positions offensively (including Pierre simply maintaing his current and career paces), and see a return of DLee to at least .900 OPS, the Cubs could get back to at least the middle of the pack or better next year in runs scored. A big IF at this point, but just a couple of smart moves and good health away.

 

You say you do not agree, but then you backup the statements with support. Of course it's the fact that all of them are here that is the problem. But we can't just pretend they aren't all here, or won't all be here next year. Just about any combination of two of those guys is tolerable in the lineup if other spots improve dramatically. The problem is improvement in other spots in unlikely to happen. Hendry still ignores OBP, and the lack of walks, which has been a huge problem for years now, is going to remain a problem.

[cjbucks]

You've got the wrogn guys.

 

Guys like Blanco and, to a lesser degree, Bynum, aren't a major part of the problem because they don't play every day. Blanco in particular gives you about what you'd expect from a backup cather, though you could argue at too high a cost.

 

It's Pierre, Izturis, Jones, Cedeno, and Perez that are the problems. These are guys who will see tons of action, and they're all pretty bad. Jones wouldn't be bad we didn't have to rely on him to produce so much, and Cedeno probably deserves a chance to grow, given his age, but Pierre Izturis and Neifi are huge liabilities that severely limit our ability to field a decent offense.

 

I do not agree with these statements. I would suggest that the combination of all of them in the same lineup is pretty bad, but any two of them (excluding Neifi, who should only see limited PT, as he has lately) in a better balanced lineup would be fine. For instance, Pierre has been excellent the last 2.5 months with an OBP well over .350 and 25 EBHs, yet has only scored 32 runs in 67 games, due to a variety of factors.

 

Unfortunately things stack up such that the first 4 are likely starters next year. If we could find a way to upgrade 2 of these positions offensively (including Pierre simply maintaing his current and career paces), and see a return of DLee to at least .900 OPS, the Cubs could get back to at least the middle of the pack or better next year in runs scored. A big IF at this point, but just a couple of smart moves and good health away.

 

We have the resources to be at the top of the pack and that is where I would like to be.

[SoonerCubFan]

You've got the wrogn guys.

 

Guys like Blanco and, to a lesser degree, Bynum, aren't a major part of the problem because they don't play every day. Blanco in particular gives you about what you'd expect from a backup cather, though you could argue at too high a cost.

 

It's Pierre, Izturis, Jones, Cedeno, and Perez that are the problems. These are guys who will see tons of action, and they're all pretty bad. Jones wouldn't be bad we didn't have to rely on him to produce so much, and Cedeno probably deserves a chance to grow, given his age, but Pierre Izturis and Neifi are huge liabilities that severely limit our ability to field a decent offense.

 

I do not agree with these statements. I would suggest that the combination of all of them in the same lineup is pretty bad, but any two of them (excluding Neifi, who should only see limited PT, as he has lately) in a better balanced lineup would be fine. For instance, Pierre has been excellent the last 2.5 months with an OBP well over .350 and 25 EBHs, yet has only scored 32 runs in 67 games, due to a variety of factors.

 

Unfortunately things stack up such that the first 4 are likely starters next year. If we could find a way to upgrade 2 of these positions offensively (including Pierre simply maintaing his current and career paces), and see a return of DLee to at least .900 OPS, the Cubs could get back to at least the middle of the pack or better next year in runs scored. A big IF at this point, but just a couple of smart moves and good health away.

 

You say you do not agree, but then you backup the statements with support. Of course it's the fact that all of them are here that is the problem. But we can't just pretend they aren't all here, or won't all be here next year. Just about any combination of two of those guys is tolerable in the lineup if other spots improve dramatically. The problem is improvement in other spots in unlikely to happen. Hendry still ignores OBP, and the lack of walks, which has been a huge problem for years now, is going to remain a problem.

 

Nope. I disagree with statements that "they're ALL pretty bad" and that Pierre and Izturis (specifically) are "huge liabilities". These statements I do not support, I merely put things in a context I do support.

[forbez18]

What about the pitching, how come no one realizes that their pitching can also be to blame. This was a team that was supposed to be built on their pitching staff not their hitting. There is one guy I blame and that has to be a guy I was a supporter of his entire carrer with the Cubs and its the pitching coah. It is the only thing that makes sense to me, he has to give them the idea that its okay to be so fine and walk guys instead of letting them hit the ball. There are 7 guys behind the pitcher, and overall the Cubs have a pretty good defense in my opinion so let them play. It can't always be about strike outs and walks. I can't believe they didn't learn anything from Mad Dog but I guess he didn't have the success here to translate that they can be effective letting guy hit the ball.

[Beligol]

What about the pitching, how come no one realizes that their pitching can also be to blame. This was a team that was supposed to be built on their pitching staff not their hitting. There is one guy I blame and that has to be a guy I was a supporter of his entire carrer with the Cubs and its the pitching coah. It is the only thing that makes sense to me, he has to give them the idea that its okay to be so fine and walk guys instead of letting them hit the ball. There are 7 guys behind the pitcher, and overall the Cubs have a pretty good defense in my opinion so let them play. It can't always be about strike outs and walks. I can't believe they didn't learn anything from Mad Dog but I guess he didn't have the success here to translate that they can be effective letting guy hit the ball.

 

I agree with you... I have seen everyone up to this post talking about the albeit poor OBP that this team puts out every night but the article talks about walk differential. The Cubs go out with the extra load that comes with having to constantly deal with runners on base via the walk and starting pitchers that can't go deep into the game without incurring obscene pitch counts because they have been taught to nibble at the corners instead of going out there and getting the job done. There have been times over the past few years where we have had to shorten our bench, giving more playing time to the amazing Neifi, to put an extra pitcher into our pen. A step in the right direction would be to get our pitchers to quit nibbling and reduce their walk totals. That can only come with coaching and to a lesser degree decisions made from the GM.

I am not saying that the OBP of the team isn't a problem because it is but I think that the pitching is at least as much to blame.

[dalgreen]

What about the pitching, how come no one realizes that their pitching can also be to blame. This was a team that was supposed to be built on their pitching staff not their hitting. There is one guy I blame and that has to be a guy I was a supporter of his entire carrer with the Cubs and its the pitching coah. It is the only thing that makes sense to me, he has to give them the idea that its okay to be so fine and walk guys instead of letting them hit the ball. There are 7 guys behind the pitcher, and overall the Cubs have a pretty good defense in my opinion so let them play. It can't always be about strike outs and walks. I can't believe they didn't learn anything from Mad Dog but I guess he didn't have the success here to translate that they can be effective letting guy hit the ball.

 

Because the pitchers are young and for some reason many people can't get to the point to criticize young pitchers, especially if one is named Prior.

[snoodmonger]

You've got the wrogn guys.

 

Guys like Blanco and, to a lesser degree, Bynum, aren't a major part of the problem because they don't play every day. Blanco in particular gives you about what you'd expect from a backup cather, though you could argue at too high a cost.

 

It's Pierre, Izturis, Jones, Cedeno, and Perez that are the problems. These are guys who will see tons of action, and they're all pretty bad. Jones wouldn't be bad we didn't have to rely on him to produce so much, and Cedeno probably deserves a chance to grow, given his age, but Pierre Izturis and Neifi are huge liabilities that severely limit our ability to field a decent offense.

 

I do not agree with these statements. I would suggest that the combination of all of them in the same lineup is pretty bad, but any two of them (excluding Neifi, who should only see limited PT, as he has lately) in a better balanced lineup would be fine. For instance, Pierre has been excellent the last 2.5 months with an OBP well over .350 and 25 EBHs, yet has only scored 32 runs in 67 games, due to a variety of factors.

 

Unfortunately things stack up such that the first 4 are likely starters next year. If we could find a way to upgrade 2 of these positions offensively (including Pierre simply maintaing his current and career paces), and see a return of DLee to at least .900 OPS, the Cubs could get back to at least the middle of the pack or better next year in runs scored. A big IF at this point, but just a couple of smart moves and good health away.

 

You say you do not agree, but then you backup the statements with support. Of course it's the fact that all of them are here that is the problem. But we can't just pretend they aren't all here, or won't all be here next year. Just about any combination of two of those guys is tolerable in the lineup if other spots improve dramatically. The problem is improvement in other spots in unlikely to happen. Hendry still ignores OBP, and the lack of walks, which has been a huge problem for years now, is going to remain a problem.

 

Nope. I disagree with statements that "they're ALL pretty bad" and that Pierre and Izturis (specifically) are "huge liabilities". These statements I do not support, I merely put things in a context I do support.

 

Pierre, with his .324 OBP and zero pop IS a huge liability. He's only useful if he's getting on base. This being his second bad year in a row makes me wonder if he's capable of that anymore. Izturis, while young and theoretically capable of improving, hasn't shown he's that much better hitter than Neifi. So basically, I don't see how they're not liabilities on offense.

[UK1679666180]

What about the pitching, how come no one realizes that their pitching can also be to blame. This was a team that was supposed to be built on their pitching staff not their hitting. There is one guy I blame and that has to be a guy I was a supporter of his entire carrer with the Cubs and its the pitching coah. It is the only thing that makes sense to me, he has to give them the idea that its okay to be so fine and walk guys instead of letting them hit the ball. There are 7 guys behind the pitcher, and overall the Cubs have a pretty good defense in my opinion so let them play. It can't always be about strike outs and walks. I can't believe they didn't learn anything from Mad Dog but I guess he didn't have the success here to translate that they can be effective letting guy hit the ball.

 

Because the pitchers are young and for some reason many people can't get to the point to criticize young pitchers, especially if one is named Prior.

 

Most are likely being more critical of an organizational philosophy rather than a player(s). Especially when the player you brought into question has been hit w/numerous injuries, I can see how someone value the potential organizational lapse more than one player.

 

If you blame Prior, then you have to blame Lee.

[snoodmonger]

nm Edited August 17, 2006 by snoodmonger